XAGUSD Rising Channel Breakdown , Sellers Take Control >>>??OANDA:XAGUSD
Bias: Bearish (Sell the Rally)
Trader Reasoning
Price hit a proven HTF supply zone
The upper black zone (near 117.7–118.8) is a major historical high where price previously collapsed hard.
Markets remember violent rejection zones — institutions unload positions there, not buy.
Rising channel = distribution, not strength
The recent move up formed a tight rising wedge / channel, which historically signals weak bullish momentum.
Strong trends expand impulsively; weak trends grind upward — exactly what we see here.
Structure break confirms sellers
Price failed to hold above prior range highs (~113) after the grind up.
This confirms bulls are trapped and sellers have control.
RSI divergence = momentum exhaustion
RSI made lower highs while price made higher highs.
Historically, this leads to sharp downside reversion, not sideways movement.
Downside liquidity is obvious
Equal lows and unfilled orders sit around 108.5.
Smart money targets clean liquidity pools, not random prices.
Why These Areas Are Key
🔴 Entry Zone – 115.95
Retest of broken structure + channel top
Ideal spot where late buyers enter — perfect for shorts
🔴 Stop Loss – 118.80
Above HTF supply + prior high
If price reaches here, the bearish idea is invalidated
🟢 Target – 108.50
Major demand + liquidity pool
Area where price previously launched impulsively
Trade Plan
Bias: Bearish
Entry: 115.95
Stop Loss: 118.80
Target: 108.50
