Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Strong Rebound or Impending Breakdown?Short-Term Analysis (1–2 Weeks)
The chart shows Bitcoin moving within a clear upward channel. Price recently touched the lower boundary of this channel — a zone that typically attracts buying pressure. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA50) is currently around $114,300, acting as a near-term resistance.
Given the current bounce attempt from the lower trendline, if price holds above $113,000, a recovery toward $118,000–$122,000 is likely.
However, if a daily candle closes below $110,000, it would signal a potential channel breakdown, exposing Bitcoin to a decline toward $104,000.
Short-Term Setup:
Potential Entry: Around $112,500 after a confirmed rebound
Targets: $118,000 → $122,000
Stop Loss: Daily close below $110,000
Long-Term Analysis (1–3 Months)
The ascending blue channel remains intact and defines the broader bullish structure. Each touch of the lower boundary has so far led to a move toward the channel top. If Bitcoin reclaims and sustains above the 50-day MA, the next upside targets are in the $126,000–$128,000 range.
Conversely, a confirmed breakdown below the channel bottom (around $109,000) could flip the market structure to bearish, opening downside targets at $102,000–$98,000.
Long-Term Setup:
Bullish Scenario (as long as channel holds):
Targets: $126,000 → $128,000
Stop Loss: Below $109,000
Bearish Scenario (if breakdown confirmed):
Targets: $102,000 → $98,000
Stop Loss: Reclaim above $112,000
Summary:
Bitcoin is currently sitting at a critical decision point. Short-term signals suggest a possible rebound from the channel’s lower edge, but a daily close below $110,000 would confirm weakness.
From a long-term view, the overall trend remains bullish as long as the ascending channel structure stays intact.
