AUDUSD | Sliding Door Moment Below 0.6550The Aussie’s drop below 0.6550 wasn’t on many radars a month ago. A resurgent USD and renewed US–China trade friction have flipped the tone, leaving AUD at a critical crossroads.
Technical Lens:
AUD/USD sits just under key support near 0.6550 — a zone that could define whether the pair stabilises into year-end or slides toward the 0.62 handle. Momentum remains fragile, but oversold signals are emerging on shorter timeframes.
Scenarios:
The Calm Returns: A diplomatic thaw or tariff pause could lift sentiment and reopen the path toward 0.68 by December.
Controlled Chaos: Ongoing noise without escalation keeps AUD capped near 0.66 as the Fed easing cycle does the heavy lifting.
Fractured Trade Front: A full tariff hike wave risks dragging AUD/USD toward 0.62 as RBA easing expectations rise sharply.
Dollar Backfire: An aggressive tariff shock could first hit AUD, then spark a USD selloff that flips the script back toward 0.67.
Catalysts:
Watch for headlines ahead of the Trump–Xi summit in South Korea (Oct 31), China’s next PMI prints, and RBA guidance into November.
Takeaway:
AUD/USD is sitting on a fault line — 0.6550 is the pivot between relief and renewed trade-driven stress.
