USDJPY | Policy Shock Gap & Channel Breakout RiskMacro Hook:
USDJPY gapped higher after Japan’s election outcome signaled fiscal easing and a more dovish BOJ tone under Takaichi’s leadership. The move widened the yield gap versus the U.S., reigniting yen weakness — but intervention risk lingers near the 152–155 zone.
Technical Lens:
Price has surged from channel support and is now testing the upper boundary. A clean breakout above 151.00 would confirm acceleration; failure here could see mean reversion back toward mid-channel support.
Scenarios:
If channel breaks → momentum could extend toward 153–154 resistance zone.
If rejected → potential pullback toward 147.50–148.00 support area.
Catalysts:
BOJ communication, U.S. CPI data, and any verbal intervention from Japan’s MoF.
Takeaway:
The gap reflects policy shock, but sustained upside requires a confirmed channel breakout.
