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BTC + SPX Trade IdeaThis is a medium term swing/position trade that has a pretty good chance to play out. Check out this fib idea below which underscores the idea. Obviously, don't panic buy unless you like riskier trades. Ease into your entry! June thru October looks like a decent entry if nothing too crazy happens, but a surprise via some global disaster could RUIN this trade. Sellers are willing to accept lower prices for this past year, that's basically what the log returns is telling us as it's below 0. In other words, risk has not paid off in a while on this scale. Risk-averse HAS paid off. This is a contrarian trade. The crowd is now ultra bearish and this presents an opportunity of price discovery. Wait for them to come to you, don't panic and go to them. The wholesale price range is defined by the region of prices where most trades were made AND the result of those trades is highly random. The bottom and tops of this wholesale zone represent the golden ratio 0.618. Remember, the absolute value of the inverse of 0.618 is 0.382. Both of these fib levels are identical, one level represents sells and the other represents buys. In other words, we don't define where 0 or 1 is. We draw the golden ratio area of the fib box around the wholesale range, then we get the definition of 0 and 1. Be aware though, that if you do this same analysis but with Log Returns on a 2 Year timeframe instead of 1 Year, we could still be in a distribution zone. Don't put all your apples in this basket. Be diligent about your position: This gives us quite a startling conclusion. The rally of Dec 2018 was simply a bear market rally on a 2 Year scale. We could be in the very SAME situation now. Lower highs on the indicator, then lower lows. So even though it LOOKS like a decent buy on the 1 Year timeframe, we should NOT assume it's going to the moon if the price reaches our target (red crosshair) unless there is some drastic shift in monetary/fiscal policy which would cause a new cycle to suddenly appear. What do you think about all this craziness? I hope you liked the idea, and good luck. Don't forget to hedge your bets! :)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by fringe_chartist
11
EUR JPY TECHHello Everybody. Hello TradingView. This is Technical Analysis for the pair EUR/JPY Let's Start! In BigPicture price is going up well. It's not a selling area or something. As you see Price is going up to check the resistance level on top of the channel. Also, we got very nice support on 128.090! My Position is going long for +70 +80 Pips. :) You can think about making more using this position. (situation). Well. If you have any questions? Tell me everything. If you don't agree to explain to me why and let's talk about it. Here is FxCROWN Thank You For Your Time
Long
by Nika-Lekishvili
2
XAUUSD over 2000$ again !Hi Guys ... : After breaking the 1910-1920 range in daily time, gold is now pulling back. Break the downward trend on short time. - As shown in the image, the boundary are marked (yellow arrow) - These range are not touched by price (Gap) - So those range will soon be touched by price. * Based on the above, the price is expected to rise above $ 2000! - I have an open trade from $ 1907. - I want to share with you: - Entry Price: $ 1907 - Take Profit: $ 2020 to $ 2022 - Stop loss: $ 1886 * | Note: The entry point may be touched again! Thanks :)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mahdiaghdam00
Position Sizing (Course #0)My very first course was going to be the winning rate. As I wrote down the other ones, I realized that position sizing, understanding what it is and how it works, was actually the most important part of it all. Therefore, I have decided to create this course #0 as the one you MUST take first to understand the other stuff. Understanding position sizing is very tricky actually. The very first time I learned about it was with Crypto Cred. He’s got a lot of great courses on trading and Technical Analysis, I also recommend you checking him out. So here is what most people think about doing: I will buy 100% of my account balance into bitcoin ($1,000 account), my account size will then be $1,000. Or, I will buy with 15% of my account, so my position will be $150. Even better, I will go 10x and my position size will be $10,000. This is great and all, but this is NOT how you should look at it. Whenever you trade, you MUST – SHALL – HAVE TO HAVE – an plan on where and why do you enter, where you need to exit at profit AND where you need to exit at loss. If you don’t want to accept that, no good. If you want to invest into something, you MUST – SHALL – HAVE TO HAVE – an plan on where and why do you enter, where you need to exit at profit AND where you need to exit at loss. If you don’t want to accept that, no good. It’s like driving, you must know when to turn, accelerate and break. So, because you will have a plan, you will know OR you will decide where to put your Stop Loss. For example, you want to put your stop loss the 20 EMA. Or, you want to put your stop loss at the low of the previous candle. Or, you want to put your stop loss 0.5% below your entry. Or, you want to put your stop loss at the previous support level. Once you have decided where to put your Stop Loss, based on your strategy and on the structure of the market/chart, you will need to decide how much you will risk on that trade. Basically, trading is like betting. You will bet/risk an amount of money, hoping to make a profit. To give you an idea, 1% risk is cool, if you want fast results you can go to 2-3% (of your account balance). Some great traders like to do 5-20%, but this is super high risk. 5-20% on an intraday trading strategy (in and out during the same day), then this is degen to me. On an intraday 1-2% risk per trade is good. So now, you are starting to be good at position sizing: you know where your stop loss will be and you know how much you will risk. Let’s go back to our examples of stop losses. Example 1: you want to put your stop loss the 20 EMA Example 2: you want to put your stop loss at the low of the previous candle Example 3: you want to put your stop loss 0.5% below your entry Example 4: you want to put your stop loss at the previous support level On the above chart, here are the distance between your entry and the stop losses: Example 1, the 20 EMA is 0.28% below your entry. Example 2, the low of the previous candle is 2.30% below your entry. Example 3, the stop loss is exactly 0.50% below the entry, like you decided. Example 4, the previous support level is 4.60% below your entry. Now let’s calculate your position size: Magic Formula: Position size = Risk % / Distance to SL % Example 1: 1% / 0.28% = 3.57 This means your position size will be 3.57 times your account balance. Example 2: 1% / 2.30% = 0.437 This means your position size will be 0.437 times your account balance, so a little bit less than half of it. Example 3: 1%/0.5% = 0.50 Your position size is equal to half your account. Example 4: 1%/4.60% = 0.22 Your position size will be 0.22 times your account. So now, do you understand that leverage should only be necessary when your strategy calls for a Stop Loss that is positioned at a distance that is less than your risk %? This is example 1. You should NEVER think “I want to use 10x” just for fun. You should only apply leverage because your position size calculation told you so. Conclusion: Position Sizing is the calculation of how much should your position be, so that when you hit your SL, you only lose what you planned losing. Position size = RISK % / DISTANCE TO SL %
Education
by Maddrix_club
1