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SELL GBPAUD: STRAT TRADE - 5 Days up P=98.78% 6TH DAY LOWERGBPAUD: 1. SterlingKiwi has been aggressively bid higher for the last 5-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 6th day or more of buying is 1.22% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here. - If we were to see another day of buying, a 6th day, then the probability of a 7th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.45% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD has been 10 once and 9 3 times. 3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS rates came off from fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data. - Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense. Trading strategy - GBPAUD Sell @1.721: 1. Short GBPAUD pretty much at market TP should be 100pips lower at the 1.711 level. 2. Also check my previous post of short gbpnzd into rallies at 1.81 and GBPUSD into 1.315-32
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
AUDNZD - STAT TRADE: BUY AFTER A 5TH DAY OF SELLING; P=98.7%AUDNZD: 1. Aussie kiwi has been aggressively sold lower for the last 8/9 days, with the bullday being only 4pips higher (pretty much 9 straight days of selling) and most recently the last 4 days have been pure consecutive closes lower. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 5th day or more of selling is 3% which means there is an implied 32/33/ 97% chance that we move higher on the next day, these odds arent too great so I suggust NOT buying on open, instead lets wait and see if we can get another close lower on the daily that takes us into the strong support zone at 1.041/3 - then this will mean buying the probability that a 6th or more day of selling occurs which is 1.3% or an implied chance of 98.7% or 99/100 that the price will go up on the 6th day Trading strategy - AUDNZD wait for monday to close lower at 1.041/3 and buy tuesdays open: 1. I advise buying aussie here after the 5th day lower as the 6th day has a 98.7% chance of moving higher, after a 5th day of selling, the odds are good and I will take part in this.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
Quick HIgh Probability TradeThis is a nice setup that caught my eye. The black lines are my entry area, the red line is my stop, and the green line is my intended target. The two negatives about this setup is that normally I would only take setups that offer me 3:1 risk to reward, but if I feel the setup is high probability, I will from time to time take less than 3:1. This setup offers roughly 2:1. I also don't like the fact that price is basing as it approaches my entry. I prefer a clean arrival. The cleaner the arrival, the less resistance price has to trade through leaving the entry. If price bases too much, I will cancel the setup. The huge plus that this setup has going for it is the fact that it is located within daily demand(support).
Long
by MrBollinger
GBPAUD Short, Target at least 500 pips!Looking at a 1 hour chart, there are great things going our way. We see that the ADX shows very low power, and that the pair will make a big move soon. Since the ADX shows power being built up, we need to look for which way the move will be. The MACD shows downward momentum, and there is also divergence in the MACD. Take a look at the RSI. There is also divergence in the RSI. The pair is reaching a pretty high point. 2 things might happen. 1. The pair will go up, spike, and then drop hard. 2. The pair will have a decent drop, work its way back up, the EMA's will cross down, and the pair will tank. Either way, downtrend if forming. If you want to be risky, but safe, don't place a stop loss within 300 pips above where it is currently at. We could see this pair run up a little bit more, but probability shows that it should go down. Also, 4 hour charts show divergence.
Short
by Jacksonian
3
To what extent is reasonable to follow the price [Observation]With the indicator "Percent Candles Not Revisited Past Week" (bottom one). I count the number of candles that have NOT BEEN revisited at all during the past week. For example that we have reached a top of 3040 and the market has not revisited that price in a week. Well, it seems that price gets revisited pretty frequently. In this past week, only 5% of the candles were not visited again. (1 in 20) and if we go back for months, the biggest rate of non revisited prices is of 7% What do i get from this? Well i make many times the mistake of pursuing the market fomoing and thinking that i will be missing an opportunity, and that could indeed happen but it is not very likely. In fact it is pretty uncommon. So maybe i should just leave some limit orders even in case that i am on a bad position (i can also leave a stop loss for added security) and wait for that limit order to be filled. When i should do that? Maybe when the percent benefit i normally earn on a market is lower than what i would lose jsut waiting for that week multiplied by the probability. Anyway, just some thoughts.
B
by hecate
1
FX CHART OF THE DAY: MEAN REVERTION UPWARDS PROBABLE USDJPYUSDJPY reentered 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean after a sharp drop earlier this week In my previous chart I also mentioned that USDJPY held long term levels (see related) Price is now likely to tag the weekly mean, as it moves into usual lateral range USDJPY is also supported by BOJ, continuing its extensive monetary stimulus Traders can take long positions close to the lower 1st standard deviation (118.70) targeting the mean (121.00) - with stop below recent lows (118.20)
Long
by Killy_Mel
1
MACRO VIEW: MORE EURUSD UPSIDE IS PROBABLEEURUSD has broken above 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days) amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean) Upside probability is apparent, and the closes target is 1 year mean (264 days) at 1.1685. Move is confirmed when price breaks above relevant highs (1.1485) Stop level is quarterly mean (at 1.1085) However one should watch out for oil trend. If WTI oil keeps falling, EUR is likely to follow (as happened back in 2014 autumn)
Long
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: MEAN REVERTION DOWN RISK ON GBPUSDGBPUSD is trading close to the 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean, but it has no slope. Volatility is not expanding (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from weekly mean) and is also flat. Thus there is not enough slope/expansion to show probability of trend - the Cable is likely to revert to the mean. Traders can pick shorts at or close to the upper 1st standard deviation (at 1.5610) with stop above recent highs (1.5665) and target at the weekly mean (1.5550) Traders should also mind US calendar news coming out 12-30 GMT
Short
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: AUDUSD UPWARD MOVE PROBABILITYAUDUSD is trading at the relevant highs above (but close to) upper 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour mean) -- which is a border of potential uptrend. However volatility is still compressing (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from weekly mean), thus risk of mean revertion downward is still there. Traders can pick longs close to the relevant highs (0.7420), but stop should be placed near - below relevant highs at 0.7395 (price can fall further to the mean if lows taken out amid compressing volatility)
Long
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: GBPUSD BREAKDOWN RISKGBPUSD broken below 1st standard deviation of weekly (120-h) mean amid expanding volatility, signaling probability of further downmove. Traders can pick shorts below or close to the 1st st deviation (at 1.5580) with stops at the weekly mean (1.5605) The trade will be confirmed if price falls below relevant lows at 1.5550. Traders should also be aware of calendar news coming out at 8-30 and 14-00 GMT, which can trigger mild volatility on the pair
Short
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: USDCHF MEAN REVERTION DOWNWARDS IN PROGRESSUSDCHF has recently broke down inside the 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean, after a significant leg of upmove. There is high chance of price tagging the mean now, as it needs to trade laterally now after the uptrend completion. Traders can still catch up with it by shorting (preferably closer to the 1st st deviation @ 0.9680) in view of price falling to its weekly (120-hour) mean @ 0.9635 before continuing anywhere else. However traders willing to jump into the move should also put a stop above the relevant highs (@ 0.9720), despite the fact that the stop level is far away upwards from the price.
Short
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: USDJPY UPTREND PROBABILITYUSDJPY has broken out from the 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from the mean). Uptrend probability arises if the price holds tests at pullbacks. Purely on technical basis, if price pulls back to the 1st standard deviation (at 124), traders can look for long positions with stop at the weekly mean (at 123.65). One should also consider US news events coming out 12:30 GMT and Japan news coming out 23:30 GMT, which can trigger unexpected price volatility (vertical lines on the chart).
Long
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: BTCUSD IS ON THE MOVE UPWARDS AGAINBitcoin has entered into an uptrend more than a month ago (June 16th 2015) and the trend held multiple tests since then, pulling back to the 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) moving average. Trades willing to participate in current rally should look for to pick up long positions at pullbacks to the 1st standard deviation, with stops at the quarterly mean itself. ... Since Bitcoin is not truly influenced by fundamental factors, it is a purely technical trade - and the trend will be intact as long as price will drive the perception of traders.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Killy_Mel
FX CHART OF THE DAY: GBPUSD BREAKOUT PROBABILITYGBPUSD Price is trading at the 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean from below amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from the mean). Purely on technical basis, if price is to break out from the 1st standard deviation (at 1.5615), traders can look for long positions with stop at the weekly mean (at 1.5560) Traders should also consider US FED news events coming out 18:00 GMT, which can trigger unexpected price volatility on the cable.
Long
by Killy_Mel
Riding the bullish momentum of the USDCAD - daytrade/intradayThroughout this entire year, USDCAD has been rallying which can confirmed on the larger timeframes such as monthly, weekly and daily. I'm basing this trade based off of that momentum and on a simple trend-contination setup. As you can see, price has been consolidating this past week and along with all the momentum n volume today coming because of greece, Im expecting this to go higher with a target of around 1.2800 - around 80 pip profit
Long
by ppp7
Continued Review of the possibilities in Home DepotSeeing the way the MACD and MFI is acting, I would say there is significant risk to the downside. However if you are already long from the recent low, then I would probably look for a continuation of the more obvious trend Could we see a retest of the recent large red candles midpoint? Possibly. And then either re-enter the bearish channel or chug through the volume zone overhead. There is also a candlestick pattern below. I'm not in a trade atm, but I wan't to see how this turns out... - If you want to get short, perhaps look for a better Risk/Reward ratio with a new bearish candlestick formation - If you want to be long, you should have been in on the bullish candlestick pattern or on the Stochastics signal for a better Risk/Reward ratio - *If* you are willing to risk it and commissions are not too high, you may be able to get a dollar in either direction with a very tight stoploss under/over the last printed candles wick or, should you like it better, over/under the low/high of the red candle we had before the last big red one.
NYSE:HD
by ThomasHagg