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The Stock Market Not a Reflection of The EconomyWe are living through the greatest economic expansion in American history. It has become very clear to me that the stock market is no longer a measurement nor reflection of the health of the "real economy" where average everyday people make their income. If it was then the federal minimum wage should be over $30 an hour compared to economic gains our economy has made in the past 30 years. The full-time and part-time employees, freelance and gig economy workers, and your average mom & pop small business owners will continually become displaced and outsourced as automation technology grows and the elite multi-national capitalist dramatically cut their labor cost through automation this decade & beyond. We've hit the top 4.236 of this Fibonacci cycle I have going from the high of December 2007 to a low on November 2008. 13 years and growing of financial prosperity on paper but not so much in reality. The gap between the rich and the poor have never been more grotesque in the history of capitalism. Our government is in the practice of creating infinite amounts of money that some how never gets to the people that actually are in desperate need of financial resources. That seems like a recipe for disaster and social unrest to me. Don't even get me started in the tsunami of inflation that will be coming. If we drop coming back down to 1.618 may be a decent support area for the market (we dropped to the 1.618 during COVID-19 Quarantine). That would be a 56% retrace from these current levels. Can we actually keep the economy growing from these levels once the infinite money creating stops? Or will it ever even stop at this point?
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by peacefuljustin
2
Will a Bank of Canada taper lift CAD?The Canadian dollar continues to drift this week. In the Tuesday session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2532, down 0.02% on the day. All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada policy meeting on Wednesday (14:00 GMT). The bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.25%, where they have been pegged since last March, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Any drama will revolve around the bank's QE programme, with the BoC widely expected to trim weekly government bond purchases from CAD 4 billion to 3 billion. A trimming of QE would be in response to the economic recovery, which has been faster than anticipated. Some 90% of jobs lost during Covid have been recovered and GDP is expected to climb above pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter. With the economy clearly moving in the right direction, the cautious BoC will likely respond with a tapering QE, while maintaining interest rates and its accommodative monetary policy. Although a tapering move is expected, the Canadian dollar could gain ground on Wednesday due to the sheer significance of such a move - it would mark the first tightening in policy by any major central bank since the Covid pandemic. We could also see the Canadian dollar react to the tone of the rate statement. A "less dovish" tone than expected from the bank could improve sentiment towards the Canadian dollar and send the currency to higher ground. Canada will also release inflation data on Wednesday (12:30 GMT), although these numbers are likely to be overshadowed by the BoC rate decision. Headline inflation is expected to tick higher to 0.6%, up from 0.5%, while Core CPI is expected to fall to 0.0%, down from 0.3%. There is support at 1.2446. This is followed by support at 1.2386. On the upside, we have resistance levels at 1.2598 and 1.2690
by OANDA
USD at 78-84 cents by August 2021 ?!Bear trap at 93 cents is almost confirmed and if we head down, look back longer period charts to get guidance on there the key long term support is. I would not short the USD but it's hard to imagine the world is going to flock to the overvalued USD since endless debasement is not endless. Yes, it's endless as the ravine is endless.... The only thing that's holding on the USD at about 90 cents is it's the safer of the FIAT currencies. Or it is? Comment, like, dislike. Everything is good in using the truth as guidance.
INDEX:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
RidetheMacro| EURUSD Market Commentery 2020.09.23 🎈 Given the absence of important fundamental statistics today, the pressure on the euro was also limited in the first half of the day. After an unsuccessful attempt to break below the monthly lows, the pair returned back to the opening level. 🔑 From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Bears will continue to focus on breaking through and fixing below the low of 1.1635. If the pair easily reaches the level, it may drop to new support levels of 1.1600-1.1550 and 1.1535. If the price returns to 1.1770, the buyers will become more active. However, if the quote goes above 1.1770, it may jump to 1.1820.⚠ 🌡 Thus economists upwardly revised the situation in the German economy. It is expected that further growth will be no less active than in the summer period. as the GDP drop in the second quarter was less than expected. 📍 However, the worsening epidemiological situation will shape the control measures and social distancing that could be imposed later. Moreover, if the EU and the UK fail to sign an agreement 🔴, a new trade war may break out. 📍 As far as the labor market is concerned, the number of unemployed people in Germany in 2020 is expected to rise to 2.7 million compared to 2.3 million last year. In 2021, the indicator could fall to 2.6 million. 📌 German consumers currently show two directions. There is the direction of a high willingness to spend, while at the same time the willingness to save is still much higher than prior to the crisis. since the end of 2019, the savings ratio of German households has more than doubled, to 20% in the second quarter. according to ECB study, the increase in the savings ratio in the entire eurozone is mainly driven by so-called forced, ie involuntary, savings. While this would imply that there is lots of pent-up demand once the economic situation stabilizes, the fact that wages dropped significantly in the second quarter suggests that the role of precautionary savings could be more important than suggested by the ECB study. In Germany, nominal wages dropped by 4% YoY in the second quarter on the back of short-term work schemes and the lockdown measures. EURUSD Another Ridethemacro
by Ridethemacro
The myth of hyperinflation series- #2. Fed's toolsEvolution of Fed's QE- Treasury/municipal bonds-> corporate bond ETF-> individual corporate bond-> Yield curve control (in potential development)-> Maybe... Individual stocks in the future... As Fed adds more debts to its balance sheet, it hampers its ability to effectively intervene the market in the future. It will need progressively more and more stimulus packages to get us out of the subsequent financial crisis. Forward guidance- Odyssean forward guidance: Fed publicly commits the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to a future action. Delphic forward guidance: Fed merely forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions. Try to imagine the following highly improbable scenario- If Fed announces tomorrow that it will raise interest rate to 10 percent and slashes all the govt bonds on its balance sheet, how will the market react? Even something much less extreme of an announcement will and can drive the public sentiment and change the public perception of the market instantly even before the action is actually carried out. Now, that is the power of forward guidance. Yield curve control (YCC)- Basically, Fed has strong control over the short-term interest rate, but much less so on the long-term interest rate. In order to influence the long-term yield, Fed would shift purchase toward longer maturities and target some longer-term rate and pledge to buy enough long-term bonds to keep the rate from rising above its target. Fed employs the strategy of selling short-term treasuries and uses the funds to buy longer-term bonds in order to stimulate and spur borrowing, investment and economy if brings short-term rates to zero isn't enough. Next, we will look at how effective these tools really are by examining few of Fed's past market interventions.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Libratus
25
How A Market Melt Up - Malaysian Penny StocksSo, the benchmark Malaysian Penny Stocks Index (FBMACE) just went into melt up mode. The indices were almost near its all time low on March and now has broken all time high and more than tripled in a matter of 5 months. What is going on? Simple. The Malaysian Market is SMALL in the grand scheme of things. There is nothing Fundamentally strong about Malaysian economy, in fact we are in recession. A simple analogy, when you have a tank of water trying to fit into a cup, that's what happened. The Central Banks globally has just sent a tidal wave of unprecedented level. Therefore all of this money is going to go somewhere. I doubt Malaysians or even Malaysian Funds have enough fund to pump this market. This market is certainly driven by foreign fund managers looking for cheap equities globally. Well, Malaysian equities are no longer cheap and we are about to enter expensive or bubble mode. I don't expect good things to happen after this, the ultimate corrections and crash will happen and many newbies and retailers are going to be left holding the bags. On all the pump and dump that is going. Reasons why I never tell anyone to enter the market now and shrug off any people who contacted me to ask about the market. I know it will be the top of bubble when people who never talked to me for years suddenly call me up and talk to me. Market always move in cycle. Anyone who try to BET AGAINST central banks are idiots. You either hold cash, hard assests or you remain invested. Another reasons why most rich people in the world are not short sellers. I expect this run up will continue for some time, then, we will peak. In the meantime, there will be many stocks that wll do 10-20x or even 50x. And then that's the end of it. Don't reach out to me. You don't need to and I don't have time to. Sorry. Regards.
FTSEMYX:FBMACE
by UnknownUnicorn735418
The 10 Year QE Bubble - "To Infinity, and Beyond!"A simple look at more recent boom and bust periods of the S&P500 Thinking Out Loud Is the QE Bubble bursting before our eyes? Will we see an all time high before a huge collapse and more Stimulus/QE? Opinion Outlook seems bearish for the long-term. These market levels are not sustainable, and inorganic, we are in the last phase of the QE bubble before it goes pop. COVID19 Wave 2 seems guaranteed at this point... Economic recovery is not going to be a V... Positioning I'm continuing to add on more shorts at these levels and above, long-term, mostly through inverse ETFs. I will continue trading the market pops and drops, while adding on to my long-term shorts. *Fundamentals seem forgotten, but at the end of the day, they ALWAYS rule the markets... this Market is in Mania.
SShort
by jb_skis
2
USDOLLAR's EMAs Reverse on Daily timeFurther to our previous article , FXCM's USD index, USDOLLAR, has reversed its technical makeup. The EMAs are looking to turn negative (green ellipse). If the EMAs develop angle and separation to the downside the green 5-day EMA will be below the orange 13-day EMA, and the orange 13-day EMA will be below the black 34-day EMA. This will be a testament to the Fed's unlimited QE policy, which is looking to devalue the greenback. As long as the USDOLLAR continues to churn sideways the EMAs will continue to whipsaw. We will watch the situation for a trend to develop; this which will make price action clearer.
FX:USDOLLAR
by FXCM
SPY 400 by Labor Day (S&P 4000 this summer)We have not reached the top yet. The S&P will rise due to unprecedented liquidity and serious retail FOMO will kick in for a parabolic rise to SPY 400 (S&P 4000) by labor day 2020. This is the end of a 30+ year secular bull market. Once the fed signals slowing of quantitative easing due to rising S&P and economy showing signs of recovery, the bust will reach its second stage and kick S&P down to 800. Deflation will take control, leading to more QE and trigger inflation long term. Gold $10k by end of decade. Bitcoin will tag along the melt-up and will reach ATH this summer, then crash with the S&P but find a strong support level above $20k and reach $1MM by end of decade.
AMEX:SPYLong
by HashtagTrading
3
DXY bearish biasBeen holding onto this TA for a while now. I posted it on twitter a lot earlier, you can follow me @thecolour_red. On the chart you'll find 3 seller owned levels and one key liquidity area below that holds bullish sentiment. Currently, 100.39 has rejected price and is being challenged by buyers in the aforementioned zone. Fundamentals: -the rejection was printed before the Core Durable Goods figure release and the flow was corroborated on the DOW -additional QE will drive down the bid in the long term Sentiment: -Dollar is overvalued at the moment when compared to G7 currencies Price action: -major squeeze playing out, as you can see from the chop of last week's PA on lower TFs -more patterns printed on lower TFs Technicals: -double top and resistance holding -price currently in range (floor is the bullish area) Additional notes: -BoJ MP statement early in the week (key part of macro analysis and will add bias to global flow)
TVC:DXYShort
by madebyforex
SPX - Update - 61.8% Fib in Sight - Bull or Bear?The SPX has broken above the 50% fib level and looks set to visit the 61.8% retracement. Prior Analysis We have already moved beyond my prior analysis targeting the typical 50% retracement, whilst this is not uncommon it is certainly a testament to the power of stimulus and a positive narrative, or perhaps naivety, as the Federal Reserve has stepped up their "stimulus" to unprecedented levels, north of 1.5 trillion within the past 4 weeks. With Lorrie Logan, head of the federal reserve's open markets, signaling that further irreversible intervention is inevitable: "supporting smooth market functioning does not mean restoring every aspect of market functioning to its level before the coronavirus crisis. Some aspects of liquidity—especially aspects related to transactions costs and market depth—are importantly affected by fundamental factors such as how the current extraordinary uncertainty about the economic outlook influences trading behavior. These aspects of market functioning may not return all the way to pre-crisis levels for some time, even as our purchases slow." With the knowledge that the Federal Reserve is and will continue to be the buyer of last resort, barring direct stock purchases (for now, but that will change shortly). How do we play these markets? The US economy is not going to open until May 1st, at the absolute earliest, according to "leaked" white house documents: "The plan lays out three-phases: Preparing the nation to reopen with a national communication campaign and community readiness assessment until May 1. Then, the effort, through May 15, would involve ramping up manufacturing of testing kits and personal protective equipment and increasing emergency funding. Then staged reopenings would begin, depending on local conditions. The plan does not give specific dates for reopenings but specified "not before May 1." Furthermore the same document states that government intervention is likely to continue until a vaccine is available: "The plan also carries this warning: “Models indicate 30-day shelter in place followed by 180 day lifting of all mitigation results in large rebound curve - some level of mitigation will be needed until vaccines or broad community immunity is achieved for recovering communities.” This fact alone, would suggest that the downside is not over just yet as the longer the lock-down measures remain in place the more the US economy will continue to bleed. But we must not get too bearish too soon. Gap Fills? The correct play at the moment, in my opinion, is to expect more upside albeit only for the short-term, as the rush of stimulus and the apparent slowing of global infections continues to placate markets and with the breadth of CB purchases, the path of least resistance is up. That being said. I will be looking to go short, should the market fail at the 200 ma or at the 61.8% fib level. I will be open to long positions, similar to my WES trade, which produced gains of over 170% in little over a few days, but i am more comfortable, waiting in cash for the time being, as even the slightest bit of bad news can send the markets tumbling lower. -TradingEdge Sources: Federal Reserve Operations: www.zerohedge.com White House Document: www.zerohedge.com BlackRock Following Fed Purchases: www.zerohedge.com
SP:SPX
by Long_Game_Trading
2