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Ratio

Confidence Ratio Going DownA great indicator to determine the confidence (ie. risk appetite) of investors/speculators is the XLY/XLP ratio. XLY is the ETF for consumer discretionary stocks whereas XLP is the ETF for constumer staples stocks. In times of confidence, XLY should perform better than XLP because there is belief that the economy is doing well and that people will spend cash on things that are not absolutely necessary. The ratio has been tracking US equities indexes fairly well over the last years, but now we see major divergence. XLY/XLP is moving down and from a technical analysis standpoint it does not look like it is about to go rise back anytime soon. Yet, at the same time, the S&P 500 has been hitting all-time highs. This performance seems like it is not supported by risk appetite - which it should! So what should you do from here? Short this ratio? Short the S&P? That is all up to you. This is just another factor from a long list that supports the thesis that equities are overextended. Good luck trading.
AMEX:XLYShort
by Fouezz
EURUSD Daily - AB=CD & Ratio confluence & RSI DivergenceI had some time on my hands so I decided to take a look at the EURUSD daily chart and an opportunity for the longer term. We have a possible AB=CD pattern (with 0.318 retracement) setting up terminating on structure level around 1.26300. Drawing Fib extensions we also have a 1.618 and 2.618 confluence at the same level. If this level holds, I'll be looking for a rally into the 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels which are both on structure level. Thanks for sharing your thoughts !
Long
by Profit_Through_Patience
EURAUD 4 HR: Pattern Entry for Trend ContinuationI'm looking at two things here on the EURAUD. Bigger picture is a potential bearish trend continuation trade as price action looks to make a retracement into a previous shelf of structure. Around that same level lays a potential bearish butterfly pattern completing at 1.618 & 1.272 Fibonacci confluence. Adding to that we have more ratio confluence in the form of a 78.6 & 50% Fibonacci retracements from previous structure highs. Just for a little added confidence this potential butterfly would complete a the 1.44000 which is a psychological round number. If you didn't see it already (shame on you, lol) I broke down this trade in my most recent Weekend Review video on YouTube. www.youtube.com Today's my off day, but I wish you guys a great week of trading! Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
2
NZDUSD Looking for a little Relief It hasn't been the best of weeks for me and I'm certainly fighting through a drawdown, but that's trading for you. The way I see it is you can either continue to follow your plan and fight through it, or given in and miss the opportunities that can potentially dig you out. This isn't the best opportunity at the moment, but it could be depending on how price reacts on my lower timeframe (1HR). What I'm looking at is a 1:1 measured move coming down into a previous structure level (look left) and a 1.618 fib extension. Keep in mind as a counter-trend trader I'm not looking for a big reversal, just a little relief that will allow me to make some profit. Now there's not much protection here on the daily, simply a zone. So what I will do is watch this closely on the hourly and look for a conservative reason to enter. A double bottom where the rsi is oversold and divergence is present would be a perfect example. This allows me to have my protective stops in a place that is safe, but doesn't mean me taking on a lot of risk. (Similar to what we did with the gbpusd this morning Syndicate Members). Not sure if or where the double bottom will complete but stops underneath the 85 even handle looks like a good spot. But again it all depends on what price action does. For you guys that follow me on youtube, I apologize about not posting my normal Thursday video. I'll probably have it up tonight or over the weekend. We'll see, it's been a busy week. Have a great weekend traders.
Long
by Akil_Stokes
1