PUT /CALL is giving a I.T. Buy signal for the SPY This morning I covered my puts again with another gain of 5.5 to 5.7% . I am bearish BUT based on these readings I am forced to exit the short side .The Crash cycle has been historical 55 to 62 days from peak to low today is now day 56 . I have a view that cycle low is in and the retest is now till 4/17 . It could in fact drop to the original target of 6177/6183 The fact the sp rallied back to fib target 6607 I put on puts here and has dropped to this morning low in an Abc forced me to take profits . This model is telling me this decline is running out of stream. and be ready to be going long Calls in spy soon .! best of trades WAVETIMER .P.S. today I started buy PUTS in USO
Ratio
SPY Structure Update — Pressure Beneath Short-Term TrendStructure is weakening.
On the daily SPY chart, price is now trading beneath the 10 / 20 / 50 EMA stack, with those shorter-term averages beginning to curl lower and reflect increasing downside momentum.
The 200 EMA is still holding steady for now, which means the broader structure has not fully broken, but short-term pressure is clearly building.
What stands out:
• Price is trading below key short-term moving averages
• 10 / 20 / 50 EMA stack is showing downward curvature
• RSI is near 33, keeping sellers in control
• ATR is expanding, signaling increased movement
• OBV continues to show downward pressure
Relative strength is also leaning defensive.
The XLU/SPY ratio continues to show defensives leading the broader market, with RSI holding firm and steady. That is not the type of relationship you want to see if risk appetite is strengthening.
Until SPY can reclaim the short-term EMA stack with improving participation, the structure remains under pressure.
Structure > emotion.
Relative Strength Isn’t Price — Here’s How to Read ItOne clean ratio chart.
No predictions. Just structure.
This is the VRT / SMH daily ratio — a way to observe which name is gaining leadership inside semiconductors, not whether price is moving up or down.
What the ratio is showing
• 20 / 50 EMA relationship
The 20 EMA has just crossed above the 50 EMA.
This reflects improving relative structure. Leadership pressure is beginning to shift, but not yet confirmed.
• RSI (14)
Short-term RSI is pointing slightly lower but remains elevated near 62, suggesting a normal pause rather than rejection.
Longer-term RSI structure continues to trend higher, indicating that acceptance remains intact.
• Rate of Change (ROC)
Momentum has paused, supporting a short-term breather in the current environment.
This behavior often appears after leadership acceleration, not at the start of a breakdown.
How to interpret this (without forecasting)
This is what early leadership transition often looks like:
Structure improves first
Momentum pauses to digest
Acceptance stays constructive
Leadership doesn’t move in straight lines.
It rotates, compresses, and resets before becoming obvious.
No outcome implied.
No trade suggested.
Just observing how relative strength behaves before price alone tells the story.
Education
SMH/QQQ | Leadership Remains IntactOn the daily timeframe, the SMH/QQQ ratio continues to confirm semiconductor leadership within tech.
The 20 EMA remains in the lead with clean upward curvature, reflecting sustained momentum and trend control. While ATR has compressed, this appears to be a constructive pause rather than a loss of structure.
OBV has turned higher, suggesting accumulation is continuing despite reduced volatility, and RSI is holding near 72, remaining firmly in a strength regime rather than showing signs of exhaustion.
Overall, relative strength conditions remain intact, with this consolidation acting as digestion within an ongoing leadership trend rather than a reversal signal.
⭐ Final Clarity note ⭐: No change in structure. Compression is occurring within trend leadership, not against it. Relative strength remains the dominant signal here.
XRP Ratios | Relative Strength Confirmation EmergingXRP is now beginning to confirm relative strength versus both BTC and ETH following yesterday’s spot-level early expansion signal.
After an extended period of compression, both XRP/BTC and XRP/ETH have transitioned into early expansion on the Daily timeframe, with structure shifting in favor of continuation rather than mean reversion.
Key observations:
• Both ratios have now closed above key EMAs on the Daily, marking a structural shift rather than a single-candle anomaly.
• Second consecutive expansion candles suggest momentum persistence, not a one-off spike.
• ATR has turned upward, confirming volatility expansion at the ratio level.
• RSI has moved into expansion territory, supporting momentum continuation rather than exhaustion.
• OBV is stabilizing and beginning to slope higher, indicating improving participation beneath price.
At this stage, this move represents relative strength confirmation, not a mature trend. The important signal here is that XRP is no longer lagging — it is beginning to outperform broader crypto benchmarks.
Follow-through and structure maintenance on the Daily timeframe will be key in determining whether this evolves into sustained leadership.
For now, XRP has successfully transitioned from spot-level momentum ignition into early relative strength expansion, placing it firmly on watch.
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
This marks an early relative strength transition. Confirmation will come through sustained structure and follow-through — not immediate price acceleration.
SMH/SPY | Semiconductor Leadership Remains IntactSMH continues to display sustained relative strength versus SPY, reinforcing its role as a leading risk-on signal within the broader market structure.
After a brief consolidation, the ratio has resumed its upward trajectory, with trend structure remaining clean and uninterrupted.
Key observations:
Price continues to hold above rising short- and intermediate-term EMAs, confirming trend persistence rather than exhaustion.
Pullbacks remain shallow, suggesting strong underlying demand rather than distribution.
Momentum remains constructive, with no material loss of relative strength versus the broader market.
Participation remains supportive, indicating leadership is being maintained rather than rotated away.
At this stage, this is trend continuation, not a breakout attempt. Semiconductors remain firmly positioned as a leadership group within the current risk-on environment.
As long as structure and relative strength remain intact, SMH continues to signal institutional preference for growth-oriented exposure.
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️
This is a relative strength continuation, not a timing signal. Focus remains on structure, trend persistence, and leadership — not short-term price fluctuations.
Dow Jones v/s Gold Ratio — History Repeating?Currently both DJI & Gold are at there peak levels, but the ratio has already breached a historical support, signaling further downfall.
Whenever the Dow-to-Gold ratio tests or breaks the 12.0 level, stories are created in history.
* 1929: Great Depression hit — stocks crashed, gold outperformed.
* 1973: Oil shock & stagflation — gold surged as inflation soared.
* 2008: Global Financial Crisis — stocks collapsed, gold became the safe haven.
- 2020: COVID tested the level but failed to break it.
Now, in 2025, the ratio has again breached the historic level of 12.0 — the same zone that preceded past market meltdowns.
Each time stocks looked strong relative to gold, the cycle turned
* Gold rallied.
- Stocks corrected.
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What is the Dow-to-Gold Ratio?
Dow/Gold Ratio = Value of Dow Jones Index ÷ Price of Gold (per ounce)
This ratio tells us how many ounces of gold it takes to buy one unit of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
For example:
If Dow = 46,000 and Gold = 4000 → Ratio = 11.5.
That means it takes 11.5 ounces of gold to buy one unit of Dow.
If the ratio falls to 6, which the chart is signaling, then it will mean:
1. Stocks might weaken or
2. Gold might become stronger or
3. If both weaken, then stocks will fall more than gold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interpretation
1. Whenever the ratio is high, it means stocks are expensive compared to gold (risk-on period) .
2. Whenever the ratio falls, it means gold is outperforming stocks (risk-off, crisis or correction phase) .
Overall, the Dow to Gold ratio suggests that this is not a normal period - a period of crisis & correction - a risk-off period
Each time this ratio reached around current levels, a major stock market downturn followed
Education
Tracking Stagflation with this Ratio - Crude, Copper, Gold RatioHow to Spot Stagflation?
One way is by looking at the copper-to-gold ratio and the crude oil-to-gold ratio.
• Gold reflects real money and investor confidence.
• Copper tracks recession.
• Crude oil represents inflation pressures.
When real money is under threat, the economy slows, and inflation rises at the same time, we have stagflation. This is the worst-case scenario for any economy. Fortunately, we are not experiencing it yet, though the risk remains.
What could trigger it?
Copper Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: HG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Long
Gold/Silver Ratio to 72 Minimum - Imminent Silver BreakoutGoldSilver Ratio is following a clear pattern of behavior. We can expect a return to mean conservatively hitting 72 at a minimum. This puts silver at $46-58 if Gold doesn't move higher. I think we will see silver 5-10X over the next few years. Easy 25-50% in the short term (6-12 months).
GLong
QQQ NOTICE TREND LINE SUPPORT I have now started to position for the transition in the markets I have moved out of all calls again for the 4 time in 4 days each of the trades made $$ . but today is day 39 TD of the rally . And I am looking for a TOP in day 40 TD I have now moved to 40 today then 75% MOC in spy and qqq 5550 555 560 QQQ puts 2026 time zone and 650 in spy . The trendline has held rather nice to help make some nice $$ and we if bullish should now be in early wave 3 of 5 of 5 of 5 .So why buy puts NOW simple answer is It could still be wave c up for wave B or wave D. and That today is day TD39 I have posted a possible Major top due on td 40 and The spiral hold up into june 6th to 9th .I know my risks and am willing to start taking the same stand and positions as I did 11/29 12/6 and feb 18th based on the wave structure and PUT /CALL model . I am willing to This is not for all traders . But I am turning down in NYSI and the NYMO is showing buying is running out but bullish call buying is nearing the two last TOPS . I have 25 % cash and will wait for two things One put call drops to 60 on 5 day or 10 day at 65 second daily RSI is no confirmation . 3rd the qqq reaches 531/534 knowing it could extend to 541/555 and similar in sp cash or the DJI prints a .786 this is a lot but it is part of the game plan best of trades WAVETIMER
PUT CALL SELL SIGNAL IS NOW IN PLACE I am 100% short The chart posted is the put/call model We popped thru the bb bands I have now moved to a 100 % puts in the money dec 26 on qqq and spy I will add if the qqq can print 494 or the Spy can print and new high The cycle top was due 5/12 is a minor n MAJOR Best of trades Wavetimer
Ratio Charts in TradingView and IAAbove you can see the Bitcoin to Ethereum ratio chart. Ratio analysis between two or more symbols is a critical method for comparing the strength and weakness of assets relative to each other. TradingView offers basic capabilities for this task, but with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and custom scripts, much more advanced and creative analyses can be conducted.
Here are some practical ideas:
1. Creating Conditional Ratio Scripts
2. Comparing Relative Averages and Issuing Smart Signals
3. Calculating Composite Ratios of Multiple Assets
4. Smart Alerts Based on Price Pattern Breakouts
For more information, search Google for "How to Use Ratio Charts in TradingView: A Hidden Gem for Traders."
Education
SPX/GOLD ratio near to key supportcrossing below moving average of 200 months could trigger a secular movement in favour of gold.
Potential global debt colapse and lack of confidence in USD + high valuation, mag-7 concentration and high growths expectations on AI are macro/fundamental facts that supports this idea.
SShort
Some say bitcoin is an un-correlated asset. What about XRP ???This chart clearly shows how XRP is uncorrelated to the price of the S&P !!
Some experts in crypto say that Bitcoin is an un-correlated asset. However, if bitcoin is, XRP is even more so.
The chart moreover shows how the price of XRP broke out of an 7 YEAR BEAR FLAG !!!
It broke down decisevely in november 2024.
At the present moment it is making a halt, drawing a bear flag (n° 2) as it did after it broke down of a very similar bear flag in March of 2017 (n° 1).
How do you think this will resolve ?
Any more questions ?
This is a very bearish chart - for the SPX !!!
Short
Russell 2000 $IWM Trending UP versus Nasdaq $QQQ Here is a ratio chart of the Russell 2000 Index etf called AMEX:IWM and the Nasdaq Composite Index etf called $QQQ.
The NASDAQ:QQQ returns over the past 7+ years have been extraordinary while the AMEX:IWM has been stagnant at best and hasn't beaten inflation.
That ratio of performance has just turned in a way that suggests the AMEX:IWM will outperform the NASDAQ:QQQ for the next 11 weeks to the tune of 10%.
The ratio has already moved up last week by 4% of the 10%, so there is only another 6% to go for this signal. If there are any pullbacks of 1%-2%, those would be lower risk entries as the distance to the "stop" level at 0.45 vs 0.4704 last would be less. The target is 0.51 vs 0.4704 last.
So follow this ratio for the next 10 weeks and see if even more relative outperformance happens.
Over the next few years, it is possible for AMEX:IWM to do 50% better than $QQQ.
We would need lower oil prices and lower interest rates and some rational pricing in the big tech names that are over $10 trillion dollars now for 3 companies: NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT and $AAPL.
Long
Silver/Gold Ratio signals Lower Interest Rates AheadWhen OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) does well relative to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold), it means the economy is strong and interest rates tend to rise when that happens. The opposite is also true. When Silver is weak relative to Gold, interest rates tend to fall.
See how it works historically? The 1997 drop in rates when the silver/gold ratio shot up is the rare exception
Why does it work? Silver is an economic metal used in industry and gold is a precious metal which used to be used for technology in the 1970's.
Well - it shows now that rates should be going down because the economy is flat, weak or recessionary. However you want to label it, the economy can afford lower interest rates.
This LONG TERM indicator has worked quite well and deserves to be on your list of indicators to track the likely path of interest rates. OF COURSE, the more important factor is WHO is at the head of the Fed.
Lower rates would make sense especially if the profligate Government spending machine slows down its aggressive spending. The global war on covid didn't help and the clear message that the market is telling us is that we needed to slow down the price hikes but we now have a US Gov't deeply in debt and struggling to be able to justify lower rates.
Here's to clarity on the future moves by the Fed, which if you were just looking at this indicator you would be cutting rates steadily for the foreseeable future.
Cheers,
Tim
11:47AM EST January 28, 2025
G&S ratio rising could be bearish on metals medium termThe G&S ratio is back above resistance (now support) and wants to break out of the bullish wedge in dark rose color.
If that happens, an inverse H&S formation could play out and shoot us up (blue line) to the extension of the rising resistance of the (yellow) bearish rising wedge. This would mean a last hurray spike of the ratio, to touch the apex a last time before falling again.
The final fall of the G&S ratio would then signal the risumption of the bull market and the further collapse in the G&S ratio would signifie a raging bull market for precious metale (both silver and gold - but especially silver).
The bull market in metals is unavoidable with the current macro sitauation. However its resumption could be delaid if this set up plays out.
GLong
Could XLM be about to M A S S I V E L Y outperform XRP ??1 I am bullish both XRP and XLM
2 Both currencies make out 65% of my entire portfolio.
3 I have 40% XRP and only 20% XLM
However, I guess XLM Stellar could massively outperform XRP in the future.
XRP just happened to break out from an important multi year resistance this pas week !
So I am wildly bullish on XRP.
However the ratio betwen XRP and XLM suggests that XLM will be the winner in the near term.
The OVER PERFORMANCE will be at least by a factor of 2.
However, chart (inverse Head and Shoulder) is suggesting that XLM will be more valueable than XRP in the long term.
Long
SPX Ratio on Stock600Hello,
A little comparison between two markets, the SP500 and the Stock600.
I made a little ratio to see where the money is going!
The result is clear, the currency is going to the USA and not to old Europe.
Does Europe still have a future, with 27 countries!
Your opinion interests me.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Long
BRK.B ratio to SPX daily.Hello community,
I had fun doing the ratio between Warren Buffett's stock and the SP500 via the SPX, since the beginning of the year.
The result on the graph, i.e. 5.11% in favor of Warren.
Grandpa Warren, still holds the road, despite his 94 years.
Experience and wisdom have struck again.
Bravo the artist.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
► Thank you for boosting, commenting, subscribing!
Long