Was recently shown this little gem of a ratio chart that will help gauge strength to certain markets such as the stocks and other financial instruments as the S&P, Dow Jones etc
So what does it all mean??
The ratio of two diametrically opposed asset classes often provides insightful clues about what investors are doing.
The XLY:XLP ratio is a perfect example....
Quick review of the spending habits over last the years since i published my first chart...
covid craziness brought the chart heavily into the XLP 'stable needs' but a huge rebound into the luxury spending, probably due to the rich getting richer and all that crazy covid money and legal scams of the mega rich
energy price increases and inflation has knobbled...
Hey all, I think XLY is setting up quite nicely for a rally towards the end of July. I think it is actually setting up quite similarly to how it did in March, and I went ahead and boxed where exactly I think we are in March. Regardless of if it is copying March or not, I think it has based quite nicely, and is definitely positioned to rally higher, though it is...
Hello friends. The Consumer Discretionary ETF has suffered severe losses this year due to the fact that consumers are being drained of disposable income to be spent on things that are not "essential". If you can choose between watching Netflix and eating food, any sane human would choose to eat food. And the ones that would not, would shortly die off.
Think of your daily Starbucks, burgers and fries from MacDonald, casual Nike shoes - I expect these stocks to continue to do well. Of course, there will always be a group of people who because of inflationary costs begin to cut down on these stuff but the MAJORITY will continue to be consumers !
WHY? Blame it on consumers behaviours - what you do daily...
For me, risk on/risk off comes down to whether this ratio can hold this 0.618 retracement. Most markets I'm watching are essentially at inflection points. Feels like everything is waiting on the Fed tomorrow.
Forgot to post this with the other shorts last night ,
Position was de-risked at 1R this am and next target will be 2R , then ill run the balance , if the trade works .
new stop 153.5 ( half risk )
next target ( 2R ) 139.79
This is one trade that I honestly lost interest in because it kicked my butt, so far ;) , and then I missed the wedge drop on Friday busy at work. But in hindsight, that's just emotions and my regency bias making excuses. Simply put , I should have entered Friday on the wedge drop plain and simple at work or not ....
So, that being said, I decided that if I was...
Well title says it all lol , another close under the 50 and significant moving averages but hidden support . Hourly range around the 50 sma here ....
Need to take out the wizard down at 176 area , he seems to be running low on mana though one side will win eventually ...
Put my stop a tiny bit higher this time around ...
Trying this again .
Stage 4 decline
Recent Death cross
series of LL
and market is in RTM ( red trading mode ) both spy and qqq below 21 ema's on daily .
After being stopped out today in the am , price was not able to close strong, closed near the low of the daily range .
Below the 10/21 ema's , 200 ema and 50 sma.
PT - 165.9 ( de risk )
Market is in red trading mode , SPY and QQQ now both below their 21 emas.
XLY , Slightly stronger than XLY but we still were not able to follow through on out HH , so far at least .
We also have LL's though too . Stage 4 downtrend looks plausible at this point , might be forming a range ?
PT 168.92, sell half and go BE on stop
XLY has rallied to and thru previous support on decreasing volume. It is currently oversold and retesting the previous swing high.
The main holdings in XLY are:
(these two make up over 35%)
Consumer disposable income is hovering around the Jan 2020 lows (fred.stlouisfed.org...
Failing 1.272 extension. I ultimately expect to see this ratio back at the 0.618 retracement (sub 2.00). As long as this ratio is under pressure, staples > discretionary stocks. If you're wondering how to play this, look up the holding in each etf. Look for shorts in stocks in XLY and longs in stocks in XLP.