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AHTI see a bottom here --> high volume in weekly for 2020 and 2021 --> higher lows I will buy when a pullback happens and react with BIG volume making us another higher low. I have another option: as the volume seems to get bigger and bigger, and we may reach higher than the previous top with the pump in 2020, I might get in if we get a good response from the price there. consider, if you want to do so, that the STOP LOSS will be close to the entry price, and if the price will fall in the triangle again, you will HAVE to close your position (and buy back as it makes a higher low as we said in the first place)
NYSE:AHT
by camelot0707
NRZ; A Retail Mortgage BehemothDISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. The purpose of this analysis is to serve as an example of an investigation into a company's background, fundamentals, and assets through various lenses to determine if it is a good potential investment for you. The function of this write up is to serve as an educational resource for investors looking to understand how to find good investments. So read and learn some things about a company that may provide a supplementary income if the bull market holds to any investor, big and small. REIT - Real Estate Investment Trusts The concept of these are actually pretty damn cool, and I might have to do a real series on Dividend-based investing for those looking to supplement their own monthly income, or as a method of investing with far fewer risks and reinvesting those dividends as shares, which prevents getting taxed on the dividend and serves as a compounding feature on your investment. Essentially, shareowners of the REIT pool their money together to operate as a real estate company; owning property for leases, mortgages, real estate financing. This is an extremely profitable business that has been limited to the ultra wealthy. This money is managed by a board of directors/trustees, thus investing in an REIT is investing in 2 key elements. First is property value, that is to say that property/real estate is valuable and will continue to grow in value, remaining valuable such that long term investments will be profitable. I am entirely unsure of what happens to REITs in the event of a major mortgage backed security crash, but I can't imagine its great. For this reason alone I would avoid these for the time being, but not all REITs are equal in their "property". Each REIT usually specializes in various real estate investments. Some might be primarily mortgages, some might be primarily retail leases, etc. The different specialties of these REITs are from the second element, the Investment Manager. This Investment Manager is essentially the same as the investment manager of an ETF, but for real estate deals. These people need to have a strong background in real estate, specific to the specialty of each REIT. This is the person, or people, that are handling your investment, and giving them money should be done via an "interview" process. Deep diving into their background is going to give you the best idea of how to judge the REIT as an investment, through good and bad times. An REIT is fundamentally similar in market dynamics to an ETF; by purchasing shares of the REIT, you buy into the underlying investment pool, and thus the underlying assets. The share price isn't meant to fluctuate to a great degree, even more than an ETF, due to the nature of the underlying business, which is owning the actual properties. To that end, only 75% of the assets (aka capital from the market) has to be in real estate, cash or treasury bonds. However, 75% of income has to come from some form of real estate. This is a pretty interesting concept, where it could potentially be abused by having large inflows allowing the REIT to buy treasuries, outflow right after to reclaim money, the income from the treasuries shouldn't pop up until 10+ years, or until a time of extreme profitability for trading, creating a massive burst of income, allowing a huge surge in profit, allowing a well timed inflow to swallow that money and funnel it. I'm not saying that that could happen, or does happen, but I wonder if it could. New Residential Investment Corp. NRZ CEO Michael Nierenberg has quite a career. That's an understatement. Starting at Lehman Brothers building their adjustable rate mortgage business, going on to Bear Stearns where he was co-head of mortgage backed securities around 2008 until a brief tenure at JP Morgan, off to Bank of America as head of global mortgages, and then 2013 CEO of NRZ and on. I don’t know how many times you have to step on a rake, get hit in the face before you learn to stop. Aside from the imminent housing bubble collapse, the guy just doesn't learn. Looking at current portfolio of NRZ takes my breath away in shock. Reading up on what the guy wants to keep going after, and what he has made a giant portion of the business is just scary. I don't think its fair to blame the collapse of two major institutions on him, and I don't know how much his original ideas were perversed to create the monster that is major banks platform of mortgage backed securities, but I have little interest in finding out what happens next. This isn't the part where I say go elsewhere and invest in literally anything else, I just caution anything in mortgage backed securities. Furthermore, over 50% of the investment portfolio is servicing mortgages, so if they don't pay, NRZ don't get paid. Another 48% is in some form of servicing, origination or securities of residential mortgages. If a depression, inflation, recession hit, people will not be able to pay mortgages. Looking at just how bad 2020 was for NRZ, seeing them flaunt it now hurts just a little. That’s not say that the same issues plaguing them in 2020 are about to rear their ugly head, I just can't imagine they have any ability to rotate. With $1 billion cash in hand, they can sustain some heavy losses and a rough year or two more, but not while acquiring another business focused on retail mortgages for over half of that cash. There is a fine line the economy needs to ride for NRZ to make it through, and I don't know if the economy will. At the very least, there are REITs and Dividend stocks with a basis far from 100% retail mortgages. Furthermore, it looks like there might be a growing issue with their retail mortgage business. wallethub.com They have ~6+ months of only 1 star reviews saying the same thing over and over; NRZ has delayed mortgage refinancing and blamed a billion things other than themselves. This is either indicative of a lack of liquidity, or just being a bad company. However, the way a significant amount of the reviews read to formula, I don't know if this is a competitor or bear firm using social media to push a narrative. www.newresi.com Fundamentals The company's fundamentals are great. They took a bruising over 2020, but they came back roaring in the first quarter. www.newresi.com www.macrotrends.net By all rights, should there be no looming threats of a systemic collapse in mortgage backed securities and retail mortgages due to massive defaulting caused by inflation, deflation, recession, etc.; NRZ is poised to have one hell of a run soon. The CEO might be playing a dangerous game, but he does do it well. Revenue, cash flow, growth, etc. are all impressive of the firm. That much is clear of the big stake Vanguard and Blackrock, likely for their fixed income ETFs and investment plans. 7.5% dividend guaranteed per year is huge. To put that into context, say you invest 10k at t0. Given dividend split each quarter of 1.875%, with the dividend being reinvested as shares: 0 10000 0.25 10187.5 0.5 10375 0.75 10562.5 1 10750 1.25 10937.5 1.5 11125 1.75 11312.5 2 11500 2.25 11687.5 2.5 11875 2.75 12062.5 3 12250 3.25 12437.5 3.5 12625 3.75 12812.5 4 13000 4.25 13187.5 4.5 13375 4.75 13562.5 5 13750 5.25 13937.5 5.5 14125 5.75 14312.5 6 14500 6.25 14687.5 6.5 14875 6.75 15062.5 7 15250 7.25 15437.5 7.5 15625 7.75 15812.5 8 16000 8.25 16187.5 8.5 16375 8.75 16562.5 9 16750 9.25 16937.5 9.5 17125 9.75 17312.5 10 17500 At 10 years, with a 10k investment, you would have 17.5k, and that is without any sort of growth to the value of the share price. If you have ~200k and you invest in that, you would have a monthly income of $1250. With $1 million, you would have a monthly income of 6.25k, or a yearly income of 75k, and you get to do nothing with your life. Do not underestimate the power of dividends. Of course all of that is pre-tax, but with the right accountant and the right financial advisor, money can be self-fulfilling. Of course, that is with out a major catastrophe to the underlying business. To that end, there has been a significant outflow of major institutional holders, with the only requisite inflow coming from Blackrock and Vanguard. Despite all their size, and all their power, even they can get it wrong. Caution is advised. whalewisdom.com www.nasdaq.com Disclaimer Thank you for your time, and I truly hope that it was worth it. Please do not use this to decide if you should make an investment or not, but rather use it as an example of how to do your own research. My analysis of information is not the same as the markets, which means I can and do get it wrong. The most critical lesson I can share with you is to read, research and hunt for information. Nobody on Wall Street is special, no one at any investment firm has anything over you but time, money, and better resources. Overcoming that, and making good investments, means reading and researching. Good luck, take care, and may you find fortune. I do not have an investment in the share price of NRZ as of May 25th, 2021. This is not financial advice, please trade carefully.
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by DoctorFaustus
This ticks all the boxes!!!Combining Tech and Real estate, eXp World Holdings, Inc. operates as operates as a cloud-based real estate brokerage firm. The company is headquartered in Bellingham, Washington and currently employs 354 full-time employees. The firm's segments include Real Estate Brokerage Services, Mortgage Origination Services, and Corporate and Other. The company operates over the Internet through its Website, exprealty.com and a cloud-based platform to provide its residential real estate brokerage services. Through its Website, buyers can search real-time property listings, and sellers list their properties and gain exposure across the various markets it operates within. The company also provides buyers and sellers access to a network of professional, consumer-centric agents and brokers. With such a low cap, and such high earnings, this seems very very promising. 2020 Revenue Increased 84% to Record $1.8 Billion; Drives Most Profitable Year in Company History With Net Income of More Than $31 Million. Just look at the juicy balance sheet. Analysts also keep the rating at $50+ at a hold or buy. Price is outside far ATR on Keltner channels so we bought in which seems to have bottomed. I may DCA too. Let's go long on this gem. (Disclaimer, not financial advice) NASDAQ:EXPI
NASDAQ:EXPILong
by jackohgorman
Upwards channelAs lockdown eases in the UK this stock is showing signs of recovery. We can observe a nice upwards channel. RSI yet not on bullish territory but the pace of recovery is steady. We could be in levels between 120-160 pence in few months. On the fundametals, the company made a very possitive announcement that this year they managed to collect 85% of the rentals despite of the pandemic situation. Also the have liquidated a lot of not essential assets and they are recycling them using a new strategy. The shareholders eagerly wait for a return of the dividend, which is believed will be anounced in matter of days or weeks.
LSE:NRRLong
by dr3k4l3
MACRO - Housing Double BottomModel Forecast for the Housing & Real Estate Market: Synopsis: Underlying Conditions: Federal Deficit: Debt needs to be paid. Household Debt Payments have bottomed. Household Debt Service Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP): Business Inventories will fall: Housing Starts are falling, and can fall much lower before recovery: Housing Sales have very little business rising and will certainly fall: Supply: The price of lumber is at a top and will certainly fall by EOY: The supply of labor will increase - Employment has downside before recovery: Capacity Utilization has some downside: Demand: As real estate investors who bought the bottom in 2020, who have have enjoyed several 100% unrealized gains decide the real estate bull market is over, they will clean up house and leave retail holding the bag on the now worthless assets. Of course, at this time, banks will be accumulating them at the bottom to prepare for the next bull market! Targets for REIT Campaign: EQR - High-Value Residential: BDN - Suburban Offices - WFH culture is here to stay, and the demand for office-space will greatly decrease: RYN - Timberland Real Estate & Lumber - Double exposure to both lumber and Real Estate: SLG - Manhattan Commercial - I expect financial disruption as well, and the high value real estate there will crumble like a house of cards: Watching: Warehousing - Due to pandemic shipping backlog, warehousing real estate should see a boom, but as 3D printing & AV shipping improve, they will become fantastic short targets, as they become obsolete! GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10
Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) BTFDInnovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) is primed to BTFD. I have a $220 target and could see upwards of $250 in the near to mid future. They're my "pick and shovels" play in the Devils lettuce industry. EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) has been consistent and their debt to asset ratio is gnarly af. No need to thank me nerds (except if you lose money, dont blame me either lol) “As far back as I can remember, I really just wanted to get me some money.” -Gucci Mane
NYSE:IIPRLong
by Augustus_Lee7
iStar REIT 25 years of solving inefficiencies We’ve long recognized that the capital markets, corporate credit markets and real estate markets are all just different sides of the same coin, yet they don’t always operate as efficiently as they should. Our business has always been about understanding where the inefficiencies lie and where gaps in the market exist—creating solutions to help fill those gaps. iStar Inc. (NYSE: STAR) today reported results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2020. iStar highlights include: Net income (loss) per diluted common share of ($0.26) and ($0.87) for the three months and twelve months ended December 31, 2020, respectively Adjusted earnings per diluted common share of $0.15 and $0.54 for the three months and twelve months ended December 31, 2020, respectively Unrealized gain on Safehold investment increased by $1.0 billion in 2020 to $1.6 billion total $191 million of legacy asset sales proceeds in 2020 20% net reduction of legacy asset portfolio in 2020 "Despite the meaningful challenges COVID created, iStar performed well in 2020 against the strategy we originally laid out two years ago: scale Safehold and the ground lease ecosystem, continue to enhance the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet, and simplify our business," said Jay Sugarman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "As we look ahead, we are excited about the opportunity to continue to build on this momentum and realize its value for shareholders." NEW YORK, Feb. 19, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- iStar Inc. (NYSE: STAR) announced today that the Company's Board of Directors has declared quarterly dividends on the Company's Common Stock and Preferred Stock for the first quarter of 2021. The dividends are all payable on March 15, 2021 to holders of record on March 1, 2021. 11 cents per share. Stumbled across this joint while research some other stocks. This lowkey might be a gem. I'm not too invested in REIT knowledge, but I will say I like what I saw. Their portfolio looked pretty decent. You never know...Target price $19-$20. Highest it's ever been was $50's and it looks like they are taking a more innovative approach to the industry. I'll need to do more research. What do you think? Like, Follow, Agree, Disagree! *Not investing Advice.
SLong
by Redimere_91
IIPR (Weed REIT)What more needs to be said. This company states that they are the first of its kind am I am blown away by their portfolio. Of course financials are great and within this year they have been active in their growth opportunities! Nice dividend increase from $1.17 to $1.24! Financials are impressive to a degree. I see room for growth. I bought 1 share and will buy dips as I go. The weed industry will up rise again...However, I'm playing it smart because weed is everywhere but who has the space availability and facilities needed for expansion? Hmmm...IIPR does. What do you think? Like, Follow, Agree, Disagree!
NYSE:IIPRLong
by Redimere_91
1
MAC Technical Analysis 🧙The Macerich Company is an S&P 500 company that invests in premium mall assets. The company owns 29 regional malls in its consolidated portfolio and 19 regional malls in its unconsolidated portfolio along with six power centers and six other real estate assets. The company's total portfolio has 50.6 million square feet gross leasable area and averaged $801 sales per square foot for the past 12 months, with the consolidated portfolio averaging $646 sales per square foot and the unconsolidated portfolio averaging $998 sales per square foot. If you understand the idea,🎯 press a thumb up! 👍 Have a question? Don't be shy to ask! 🤓 Interested to study how to analyze charts, follow me!
NYSE:MACLong
by trading_as_bus
1
ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX - Birds Eye View - Wave 3 In ProgressThis chart is very interesting for a few reasons. It basically says that real estate topped in 2007 and has never recovered. Every trick in the book has been thrown at the property market in Australia in an effort to prevent it from collapsing, I would say this is also happening in other countries. Blue Wave 1 started in 2007 and ended in 2009. Blue Wave 2 started in 2009 and ended in February 2020. -According to the waves labelled for Wave 2 you can see on the RSI that Wave C was strong. -You can also see that Wave iii of Wave E was also a strong move on the RSI which confirms this count. Green Wave 1 represents the start of Blue Wave 3 which occurred from February to March in 2020. Green Wave 2 appears to have ended on the 29th of December 2020 and a break of 1281 will confirm this as we move into a third-of-a-third wave. According to AriasWave this count is accurate and a sign of things to come. One thing I always make a point of is that the news interacts with the waves and not the other way around, therefore trying to pin this on one particular reason is pointless. There are a myriad of reasons why this is happening, the cycle in interest rates and the cycle in the US Dollar are only 2 of these reasons. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
ASX:XPJ
by AriasWave
Investment advice and portfolio revealProbably I’ll post this text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it. Introduction and the mindset: 8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. As my experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium). This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio and talk about my ideas with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks. My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer): In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also wanna add, I didn’t know any known influencer back then. My recent/actual ideas and how to do it: I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will pay dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde, in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history shows that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market examples I analysed: 1929, 2000, 2008). Doesn’t that tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the 2008 stock market rally instead of everyone else? Yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different” :D But jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future. Why and how? A simple enough hint of mine for example is, if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later). So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both the fundamentals and financials in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority is investment for 3-5 years the exceptions are the swing trades (I mark them “swing trade” as they are not investments): TSLA again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (swing trade); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit).
AMEX:SPYLong
by janfoux
1
*BULLISH* 6.5% breakout to $61.90 target by New Years *full disclosure* I have a 28,000 CHF long position in RET* Retail Estates is an underappreciated European retail REIT that is primed for a substantial technical breakout this December. Please take the time to look over the technical analysis, which is purposefully decluttered to provide a utilitarian analysis of the overall forecasted direction of the share price. The fundamental analysis is far more appetizing since the REIT is likely to be a pillar in my portfolio, similar to how SGRO was over the last 5 years. Similar to SGRO that focused on commercial real estate on the periphery of town, RET does the same for retail outlets, except instead of encompassing the UK and pan-Europe, they specialize in Belgium and the Netherlands. As COVID-19 vaccines are set to roll out across Europe, the smaller countries are likely to be more efficient in distribution than the larger ones. Furthermore, Belgium is home to the ECB and the Netherlands is home to the International Justice Court, and with Brexit underway, these are two highly English proficient, international countries that are likely to benefit from a "no deal". Work culture is ultimately shifting to stay-at-home, but the office in the center of town will remain a cornerstone of any business. RET's retail outlets are perfectly suited to take advantage of this new trend as more people live on the periphery of towns and make trips into town on a ad hoc basis. All in all, given the technical and fundamental analysis, I am bullish on the stock. Thank you for reading and considering my analysis. Yours Sincerely, Turner Capital Management
EURONEXT:RETLong
by TCM_Group
Crown Castle, as both a REIT and 5G play looks ready to moveCrown Castle is first a REIT and then a 5G play. The industry is ramping up infrastructure and will do well in the years following as the tower provider leases more and more capacity to the new 5G rollout. Given the surge in Work From Home (WFH) as well as continued advances in technology, 5G will be the mainstay in just a couple of short years. This will empower the engine of revenue growth for this company as well as the earnings and dividends. I'm looking for a consistent move upward over the next 5-7 years from this. #CCI #5G #REIT NYSE:CCI
NYSE:CCILong
by ByDHTaylor
1