BTC/USD 1D1. Price Structure and Patterns
Medium-Term Trend: Since mid-June, the price has been consolidating between ~$112,000 and ~$121,000, but with a slight upward slope.
Upward Channel: Marked with orange lines โ the current candlestick is near the top of this channel.
Triangle Breakout: The white dashed line indicates an upward breakout from the converging triangle (symmetrical) formation, which could signal continued growth.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
Nearest Support:
USD 117,009 (Fib. Level 0.236 and local low)
USD 115,912 (SMA200 โ red line)
USD 112,167 (lower consolidation boundary and prior support)
Nearest Resistance:
USD 121,151 (Fib. Level 0.382)
USD 123,966 (Fib. Level 0.5 โ key psychological and technical resistance)
USD 126,781 (Fib. Level 0.618 โ strong resistance)
USD 130,788 (Fib. Level 0.786 โ breakout target)
3. Technical Indicators
MACD: The MACD line is beginning to intersect with the upside signal line โ suggesting the beginning of upward momentum.
RSI: 59 โ rising, but not yet in the overbought zone (above 70). This means there is room for further growth.
Moving Averages:
The SMA50 (~$114,020) and SMA200 (~$115,912) are below the price โ a bullish pattern.
The price has rebounded from the SMA50, which is often a good starting point for further growth.
4. Scenarios
Bullish (more likely at this point)
If the price holds above $118,000 and breaks $121,151, a quick move to $123,966 and then $126,781 is possible.
Confirmation โ the daily candle closes above $121,151 on increasing volume.
Bearish
If the price falls below $117,000, a retest of $115,912 is possible, followed by $112,167.
A break of $112,167 could signal a downtrend reversal.
5. Key Observations
Volume is increasing on bullish candles โ a sign of accumulation.
The price is near strong resistance at $121,000โ$122,000 โ a correction is possible here.
Longer term (Fib from the March low), there is potential for a move towards $130,000โ$135,000 if the trend continues.
