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Resistance alert for CommodityCommodity index is reluctant to pierce the aforesaid 37 (R1) level coincides with 200w SMA indicates the index will take a breather to neutralize its prolonged overbought condition as seen on RSI. The index could make a return move to support level at S1 or further to S2 before it could introduce a change in trend to Bullish, if it could travel above R1. The pattern and movement of the index coincide with the Brent Oil and FCPO on our earlier analysis. Disclaimer: No trading strategy provided here. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for technical analysis education purposes only.
AMEX:USCI
by ellynacci
Coffee market review 12/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Yesterday, ICE US coffee futures closed down sharply - 3.93% to 118.45 ct/lb. In 3 days, Arabica coffee almost erases Friday's 6% rise. According to the latest reports, the passage of Hurricane Iota did not cause much damage to the coffee crop, with at most small delays. Fears that the crop in Central America will be affected are now over. Countries such as Honduras and Guatemala are important producers of Arabica coffee with 5.6 and 3.4 million bags of production respectively. Despite the extensive destruction in the northern islands of Colombia, the country has not suffered any production losses either. Colombia is the 2nd largest producer of Arabica coffee in the world with approximately 14 million bags. The price of Arabica coffee had also benefited recently from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains after the passage of several typhoons, leading to fears of a smaller harvest. The worst of the storms have now passed, and the USDA's forecast increase in Indonesian Robusta production should offset the reduction in Vietnamese supply. In Brazil, the forecast for the next crop is still down due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal. Brazil is the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee. As Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, the next crop will be smaller anyway. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. England is the first country to license Pfizer's vaccine, and the vaccination campaign will begin next week. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. On Tuesday, the DXY fell back below 92, after Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell assured that the priority remains supporting the economy. The dollar's slide was further exacerbated by the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for an emergency support package of $908 billion. The dollar is still low and in a bearish trend, the DXY closed at 91.190. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic continues unabated, with more than 64 million cases worldwide and more than 1.483 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 270,000 deaths and more than 13.7 million cases. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. Rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were again below normal, which partly explains the more than 6% increase in Arabica coffee prices on Friday. According to forecasts, next week there will be a 70% chance and more of receiving rainfall above 50 mm. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.260 million 60 Kg bags, up from 1.244 yesterday. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.190, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY Index representing the USD against a basket of foreign currencies closed yesterday at 91.190, and the trend is still bearish. On Tuesday, the DXY fell back below 92, after Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell said the priority remains to support the economy. The fall of the dollar was accentuated with the joint proposal of the Democrats and Republicans for an emergency support proposal of $908 billion. Forex traders anticipate an increase in the money supply. Yesterday, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1910. The Brazilian Real has benefited in recent weeks from the weak Dollar, but the underlying trend of the Real is still bearish and historically low. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers, and encourages them to export.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly copper market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013. Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs. Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months. Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. - On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October. - On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI. - On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation. - Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations. - Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week. A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cotton market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COTTON Last week, ICE U.S. cotton futures closed higher at $73.27 cents per pound. ICE U.S. cotton stocks were down to 115929 bales. Total cash transactions were 47,906,262 bales this week compared to 3,957,734 bales last week, an increase of 8,328 bales this week compared to 5,5843 bales last week and 99,595 bales at the same time last year. Demand has been good, with China, Pakistan, and Turkey showing interest. -In the Southeast last week, conditions were sunny to sometimes cloudy. The harvest accelerated at a good pace as the ideal weather conditions allowed the field work to progress without interruption. Growers continued to report lower yields and reduced quality in areas that received excessive moisture during the fall. In North Carolina, operations progressed more slowly, as fields remained too wet, with harvest 81% complete in Alabama, 73% complete in Georgia, 64% complete in North Carolina, 68% complete in South Carolina, and 49% complete in Virginia, which is below the five-year average. -In the Delta, low rainfall amounts were reported in the North Delta. Operations were ending in good conditions, with the cotton harvest and fall work almost complete. Producers reported that they were generally satisfied with the yields and quality of the crop. Harvest was 99% complete in Arkansas, 91% complete in Missouri and Tennessee, 99% complete in Louisiana and 95% complete in Mississippi. Progress is finally close to the five-year average despite repeated hurricanes. -In Texas, intermittent rains brought light precipitation in some areas. In the east, fields were ploughed and fertilizers were applied. Ginning activities continued in the coastal areas. In the West, more rainfall would have been beneficial, with 90% of the crop being harvested. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and hope for a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending that weakens the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases. WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES The hurricane season in the North Atlantic is officially over, and the U.S. cotton harvest is also coming to an end. Rainfall in October was above normal, but lower than normal in November. Last week, the weather was sunny and slightly cloudy, with rainfall in the South Delta. ICE US CERTIFIED COTTON STOCKS ICE stocks of full-season cotton were down to 1,519,929 bales from 1,183,94 bales the previous week. Stocks are above the five-year average for the same period. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week. A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cocoa market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed higher at $2,766 a ton. Some manufacturers bought cocoa directly on the futures markets to avoid paying the LID, a $400 premium introduced by Ghana and Ivory Coast to ensure a decent income for producers. The result has been a decline in ICE stocks that fuels speculation. It should be recalled that according to forecasts, the next harvest will be in surplus, and that in early November, the Coffee and Cocoa Council announced that it was having trouble selling 500K tons of cocoa from its intermediate harvest. For the 2020/21 season, the arrivals in Ivorian ports are 646K tons as of November 22, against 518K tons at the same period the previous season. Cocoa stocks are down to 3111 thousand 60 kg bags. The dry period in West Africa has begun and runs from mid-November to March. Producers hope that the Harmattan will not come too early this year. It is a dusty wind coming from the northeast of the Sahara that blows during the dry season. Harmattan can have a negative impact on crops. The wind would already be present in the northern part of the country, which explains why rainfall was already more concentrated in the coastal areas. The moisture in the soil should allow for an abundant harvest until the end of January-February, according to producers. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as secretary of the treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases. WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA Ivory Coast and Ghana experienced above normal rainfall in October with an average rainfall of more than 150mm. They were more mixed in November. As can be seen on the 30 day maps below only the southern parts of these 2 countries received above normal rainfall and the northern parts were 50mm below normal. Cocoa trees are more affected by rainfall than any other climatic factor. The dry season started in Ivory Coast and Ghana and lasts from mid-November to March. Producers hope that the Harmattan will not come too early this year. It is a dusty wind from the northeast of the Sahara that blows during the dry season. Harmattan can have a negative impact on crops. The wind would already be present in the northern part of the country, which explains why rainfall was already more concentrated in the coastal areas. ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS Cocoa stocks are down to 3111 from 3170 thousand 60 kg bags the previous week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks rose above last season's stocks at the same time. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week. A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
ICEUS:CC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly coffee market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed sharply higher at 124.30 ct/lb. Arabica coffee ended the week up 6% on Friday with a combination of factors, concerns about the upcoming Brazilian and Vietnamese Robusta crops, a weak dollar benefiting commodities, and hopes for a vaccine. Hurricane Iota hit Central America and Honduras, a major coffee-producing region. Colombian production is expected to remain stable at 14.1 million bags. The price of Arabica coffee also benefited from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains following the passage of several typhoons, leading to fears of a smaller harvest and smaller bean sizes. Vietnam exported 70,000 tons of coffee in November, down 37.5% from the previous year, according to government data released Sunday. In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still down due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal. Brazil is the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee. As Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, the next crop will be smaller anyway. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending that weakens the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. And, as can be seen below, on the 30-day weather maps, rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were again below normal, which partly explains the more than 6% increase in Arabica coffee prices on Friday. According to forecasts, next week there will be a 70% chance and more of receiving rainfall above 50 mm. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.245 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.236 million bags the previous week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week. Last week, the Brazilian Real closed slightly higher at 0.1872. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting from the weak Dollar in recent weeks, but the underlying trend of the Real is still bearish and historically low. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers, and encourages them to export.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly copper market 11/16/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.1780 per pound. Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, Moderna announced very encouraging results on Monday. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just surpassed 54 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.320 million deaths. Faced with the second wave, Europe has been confined. The United States is the most affected country with more than 246,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases, and is also taking restrictive measures such as in New Jersey and Michigan. The copper market is still bullish, the hope of a vaccine with Pfizer or Moderna, as well as the prospects of a massive recovery plan with the Biden administration are carrying the markets. The dollar is still low and in a bearish trend, the DXY closes Friday at 92.755. In addition, copper stocks are historically low and declining. COMEX+LME+SHFE stocks are at 357979 MT. The good health of China's manufacturing sector and its willingness to accumulate stocks is fuelling the upward movement. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest copper importer. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, Chinese exports increased by +11.4% in October, and imports on the other hand disappointed with +4.7% against +9.5% expected. Industrial production in the Euro zone dropped to -0.4% in September for +0.7% expected. - On Monday, the Chinese industrial production was +6.9% in October, the unemployment rate in China is 5.3%. The New York FED manufacturing index fell to 6.30 in November from 10.50 in October. - Tuesday, US retail sales and industrial production. - Wednesday, Euro zone inflation, US building permits. - Thursday, U.S. Unemployment Claims, Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 165200 MT from 172450 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 117949 MT from 139657 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 74830 MT from 73568 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 357979 MT compared to 377339 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 92.755, after a sharp decline in early November. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be held on January 5 in Georgia. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. The Fed has announced that it will increase its "firepower" if necessary. Forex traders therefore anticipate an increase in the money supply. The pandemic is not weakening, Europe has reconfirmed itself in the face of the second wave, the United States is also taking new measures of restrictions in certain states. The hope of a vaccine, with the announcement of Pfizer, calms the markets and prevents for the moment the dollar from playing its role as a safe haven. Caution is still called for, however, as many questions about vaccines remain unanswered. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated raw materials market.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cotton market 11/16/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COTTON Last week, ICE U.S. cotton futures closed lower at $68.4 cents per pound. Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, Moderna announced very encouraging results on Monday. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just surpassed 54 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.320 million deaths. Faced with the second wave, Europe has been confined. The United States is the most affected country with more than 246,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases, and is also taking restrictive measures such as in New Jersey and Michigan. Total cash transactions were 339891 bullets, 22630 more this week compared to 16224 the previous week. Hurricanes Delta and then Zeta have hit the Delta and Southeast region in recent weeks. -In the Southeast, harvesting resumed at a good pace early in the week thanks to dry and sunny weather, before being interrupted again on Thursday by storm Eta which brought strong winds and heavy rains to the coastal areas . The harvest is finished there between 45 and 57% depending on the state. -In the Delta, the harvest progressed rapidly in excellent conditions. No rainfall was reported. Harvesting is 85-95% complete in the South Delta and 63-64% complete in the North Delta, and 89% complete in Arkansas. Growers reported yields were slightly below expectations, but were generally satisfactory. ICE US cotton stocks increased to 9,36331 bales, above the five-year average. WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES The hurricane season in the North Atlantic is officially underway until November 30, and the U.S. cotton harvest is still underway. Rainfall in October was higher than normal, with over 200 mm falling in some areas of the southeast and delta regions particularly hard hit by hurricanes Delta and Zeta. Last week, storm Eta hit Florida, and the southeast experienced heavy rainfall, over 100 mm in some places, while the rest of the cotton belt remained dry. Cotton is particularly sensitive to rainfall at this time of year when the bolls are open. Moisture causes rot and discoloration of the cotton fiber. ICE US CERTIFIED COTTON STOCKS ICE cotton stocks for the full harvest season rose sharply to 93631 bales from 66598 bales yesterday. Stocks are above the five-year average for the same period. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 92.755, after a sharp decline in early November. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be held on January 5 in Georgia. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. The Fed has announced that it will increase its "firepower" if necessary. Forex traders therefore anticipate an increase in the money supply. The pandemic is not weakening, Europe has reconfirmed itself in the face of the second wave, the United States is also taking new measures of restrictions in certain states. The hope of a vaccine, with the announcement of Pfizer, calms the markets and prevents for the moment the dollar from playing its role as a safe haven. Caution is still called for, however, as many questions about vaccines remain unanswered. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated raw materials market.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Commodity-market-review