Hi there, Commodities crash is coming. it is going to be similar like 2008. Get ready to short commodities accross the board. Good Luck
Now that the bear is awake, I am already looking ahead to when Central Bankers of the world will be forced to inflate currencies to keep their respective countries from defaulting and descending into chaos. Naturally a fake bull market will kick back into gear, and -counterintuitively to the expansion of the money supply- that usually brings about a depreciation...
I take a look at SPGSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodities index) Looks like a short term peak has taken place.
SP follows a steady trend in history, whereas commodities tends to be more volatile. We usually call it cycle. If you followed more historical data, you would find a significant two sessions cycle made the equity/commodity curve inching up. I believe this is the beginning not the end. (I should publish this earlier, it would be more useful. Now I put it...
Fundamentals: Central bank is raising rates, easy money is over, this should slow and change the commodity price trend we have been in for the last couple of years. Quarterly: - 8 consecutive up quarters as of right now. - I think a healthy pullback to the trend line breakout area is in the cards. Monthly: - Approaching big potential resistance from the last big...
Looking at the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and how the prices went up dramatically from the Covid lockdown, i would say that there is still room for a final rally, before a major correction in 2024. The chart is self-explanatory. Looking forward to read your opinion about this.
Should this play out, the Resource Sector should outperform the S&P by nearly 16 times. Time to sell S&P and change to Commodities was the March lows of 2020!!
The commodity basket to S&P ratio just formed a textbook double-bottom. The ratio also has a very similar momentum setup to the peak of the Dot.Com Bubble on both the RSI and 7 yr Rate of Change indicators. We look to be starting a true secular bull market in real assets that could be sustained throughout the decade. The chart shows that financial assets have...
Hello All! This is a macro view of Commodities (Metal, Energy, Livestock & Meat and Agriculture). As you can see we have broken out of the falling wedge formation and we are pushing towards 4 main resistance levels. Commodities have not hit a new all time high since 2011 which was during the low of the housing market crash. These levels will be key economic...
I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the third of the series. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but developing a broad framework to build understanding of market context and to help recognize change in the...
Embrace risk! Brace for the storm! Etc. Weakening, last stage before arecession is commodities driven up to unfeasible prices slowing global economy. Nothing new. Just know it'll come down as fast as it went up.
With the money printer going BRRRR (costing $4T from the fed) causing stock prices to be inflated, investors and money managers in the stock market may soon take profits into hard assets that aren't necessarily tied to the value of the dollar, like housing, cryptocurrencies, gold, etc. in order to preserve the wealth that may otherwise be lost due to continued...
Inflation? Rate hike? Dollar pushing back across the board pricing in inflation is the hot topic. Guess we will see. long term I wouldn't short this but I exited my Oil position last week and got long the dollar. My USDCAD long Is 100 pips in the green and still lagging the overall market with plenty of room to move to the top of its range. -Standard Keltner...
We are approaching to the major resistance made by 3M timeframe. However wave (a) of last (abc) pattern is ongoing so far. In this respect, I am awaiting SHARP wave (b) in the form of “Change in behavior” and then last move (c)(z)(C){a} prior to deep correction within M timeframe
The GSCI index has just broken out
The commodities/stocks ratio is now at the end of its bullish downward wedge pattern formation and about to breakout in the next year or so. This will be highly inflationary and will lead to the next commodities bull market. You'll want to be in commodities, rather than stocks during this period.
Question to the readers: What kind of chart formation is that? Return would be a minimum of 20% p.a. over a maximum of 5 years After breaking red resistance line. Greetz from Hanover, Lower Saxony Stefan