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NQ Intraday Analysis 04/19/23Hi all, welcome back to a new morning :) Without going into the nitty-gritty, NQ is holding a major zone right now (simplified to the most recent area) and the market has extended almost 300 points within a day. I am expecting two scenarios at the opening area which will define how I act for the remainder of the day: Scenario 1: Mean reversion long - Bulls are able to hold the major zone and end with a maximum target around 13300. Expect possible shorts around 13300 if shorts begin to hold major zones. Scenario 2: Breakout short - Bulls cannot hold the major zone and the market breaks the low of the zone with a close. If bears can hold this zone on a retest, expect short scalps with the first minimum target around 13025. Risk of reversal long back above the major zone should be taken into account. Of course, this is not financial advice and I have my own data used to validate this opening plan; please always perform your own research and judgement! Good luck and I hope all of you have a great day!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Billy_FX_
NQ Bear TimeIts been a very eventful week. Tech has went on a massive run the past couple months and became the market leader again. I don't think this is sustainable in this global financial environment. Macro aside we had fomc today and based off the reaction (huge selling volume to end the day) I think we may have seen the highs on NQ today. The sell off caused a nasty bearish hammer candle with a huge wick upwards and closing at lows. This type of candle can signal distribution. On the hourly timeframe you can see very sizeable sell volume near NYSE close. Not a good sign for bolls imo. Could be wrong but we shall see. NEVER financial advice just a little trading journal. I may start posting my ideas more often again to see how my theories and insights play out.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EZmoney24
NQ/MNQ Futures Reaction AreasOn this chart are the reaction areas for the NQ, MNQ, NDX at least for the first part of the week. I wanted to release this before the Sunday open because it might help for the overnight session. All levels or areas have short descriptions. I published this on a 30m chart (structure) because it really provides a good mix between my standard intraday (5m) timeframe and the 60m golden timeframe. What is clear here is the zone between 12,000 - 12,9000 doesn't provide many high-probability reaction areas. As usual, the focus for the week should be momentum and how well that is being held up, especially given the close on Friday. It was clear the market wanted to recapture the weekly open and it did just that. Any downward move has to find support at some key reaction zone; otherwise, sentiment will shift against a continued upside move. 11,100 or so, really that key battle zone. If the price gets here and how it reacts will be key. Watching how the 60m momentum and bias hold LONG will be key going into the first few days of this trading week. As far as known news events, Thursday is the big day. So as the week develops, plotting where Thursday wants to test and close will be key. I'll update this idea as we go along this week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RexDogActual
NQ - Large Funds were Friday's Sellers / Macro Context8 Minutes and 49 Seconds: "The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal." "Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance." "While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses." __________________________________________________________________________ $3 Trillion in Equity Complex losses, the result. __________________________________________________________________________ After a slow build, FOMO took hold as the Financial Media began its Pivot dialogue. On 34 separate occasions, Fed Members attempted to extinguish the narrative which appeared to self reinforce - every time a Board of Governor member spoke. A bizarre and high velocity move higher to the day of reckoning which took participants by surprise. Their overarching thesis had been reduced to a puddle in 8 minutes. __________________________________________________________________________ A slow-motion waterfall of 4.5% for the NQ, blowing through the .618 or Negative .382 of the entire move off the lows to very recent highs. A powerful message to Market Participants, which became self-reinforcing as the Afternoon progressed. Internals collapsed as Large Funds began liquidating Tech. If you have followed recent commentary, you understand why. Markets were simply a ticking bomb, hot potato, and overreach of extraoridnary guile as Meme's went ballistic only to give it all up and likely much more in the coming weeks. Bonds, the Dollar, Energy, and Soft Commodities are all at Pivotal junctures. __________________________________________________________________________ "The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy." - began to cycle through mindshare across Trading Desks as the PM Session unfolded. An important admission by a Fed Chair. One that I have repeatedly hammered home here on Trading View through Multiple commentaries with a multitude of examples. Without exception - every one of the 9 events where inflation crossed 5%: 1945 1948 1953 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2007 Recession followed. 2022 is somehow different... according to some, new, All Time Highs will arrive. It is absolutely, not different. "The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy." It does indeed, although the results this time will be extraordinarily different as the foundations are crumbling along with future arrangements. During recessions, the Lows formed After the Fed began to reduce rates - within 1 to 3 months the bottom formed. In sum, this is in no way similar to the prior 9 Recessions, and the Federal Reserve knows this very well. __________________________________________________________________________ We are facing extreme Volatility once again, I see no signs of it letting up. Mid-Term Elections are outliers, we will see how the Admin attempts to Politicize the the new reality - "Inflation is Zero" will not do. The DX breaking 110 will create panic.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
NQ daily time frame holding at down trend lineThe NQ daily time frame is in a down trend. The market is making lower lows and lower highs. The market just hit an up sub Fibonacci extension price 12999.50. It is expected the market will have a bearish reaction after hitting this Fibonacci extension. If the market can break and close below the short term up trend line. It will be a good idea to turn to the one hour time frame to look for selling ideas in the sell zone towards the daily down Fibonacci price point 9480.75
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by JoshuaMartinez
3
Nq - Short Interest / Gamma Squeee July 15 - July 21Call Buyers were able to earn off the July 15th Gamma Squeeze into the Day prior to Expiry July 22nd, Friday. Wall Street managed a near-perfect Trifecta on the move, flipping the trade on its head into the Close Thursday. Overbought Conditions moving into Friday assure the Squeeze has a higher probability of Reversal. __________________________________________________________ Kick 'em when they're down, kick 'em when they're up. Perfection in Grifting MAximum Sh_t Mix Algebra, brah... simple, basic Math that provided hope for the Bulls and anxiety for the Bears. It's a Counter-intuitive Trade on balance and what Traders need to anticipate when we see large overbought readings for NQ. We had that event with the Highest RSI of 2022 for NQ leading into the TOSS. ___________________________________________________________ Aggravating - these perfect Pivots from Port to Starboard. The Boat Tips and sends the mixed into the drink. Wall Street's Algos have become extremely adept at siphoning off each and every spike in Liquidity within the Options expected ranges. This makes it difficult to determine exactly what they are doing on a Weekly basis until Extremes are reached. Unfortunately for most Options traders, the Pre NYSE has provided the exit on Fridays if you are on the opposing side of the Ship. ____________________________________________________________ At present, it's a Holeshot range until the 2nd test of the recent highs or an outright collapse to lower lows over the coming days to a week.
N
by HK_L61
NQ - Daily / Highest RSI of 2022 Prints - Preppin for Uncle Ted Buy the Highs again fails. Breakout... Rejected. Pirce... Ejected. Was it FOMO? No, it was not. It was Wally dragging the Futes on a Low Participation Day which Snap'd lower. VX SM'd again. ______________________________________________________________ Bulls cheering the 10 Year? The DEPRESSION Inversion is extremely persistent. ...And wreaking havoc everywhere, everywhere. A FED Pivot, a "Bottoming Process"... blah blah and blah. It took TESLA 3 Days to reverse from the Q1 Fraud. Remember that dunk Fanbois? 1250 to 50% lower. Subtle eh? Memories are short. SNAP isn't trying to shake it off, rather the appetite for destruction was enhanced to Single Digit Midget Mode. _______________________________________________________________ The TECH JUNK Co Junk is setting up for yet another large adjustment. It will indeed Go - Full On Uncle Ted - Unibomber Jihadist. Wall Street's Holy War on those seeking to Profit from incessant Greed by Fading the Terrorists have conveniently unleashed RPGs at every Soul willing to engage them. Bone Drones circle above ready and willing to unleash hell from above, be it those willing to bring down Airlines, Cruise Ships... Wally simply goes full john Brennan and blows up every Wedding Party in sight. Wed yourself to the SELL anywhere under Resistance and you are fair game... you'll be dismembered from above. Depeche Mode... be your own personal Jesus, resurrect yourself, I Suppose. JB's the on the Trigger, he'll just Rod of God yer ass, again and again. ________________________________________________________________ It's different this time, for the 7,120,127th time in Humanity's history. _________________________________________________________________ With the Game now being moved out until 2023, Wally is desperately trying to arrange the Media Bullhorns to engage further "Hope" Man, f_ck that. Idiotic. Hypotheticals abound, unfortunately, they are designed to imply progress which is NOT being made by any measure. Below expectations is not a Positive, Lower the Bars lower and then suggesting it's not as Bad as we thought, it's bad just nearly not as Bad as it could have been. Buy the Bad. No, KMA. We have until July 27th to 28th to Pivot into the 2nd TOSS. Time's up after that... into August 12th Pivot. The sentiment is absolutely terminal and will is not about to reverse. Globally Central Banks are getting Aggressive... ignore it at your own peril. ES at 3200, where doth NQ end up... easy Sub 10K.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
5
NQ - 15 min / 11767 LIS - Upper Boundary 12262 - GLOBEX OPENRoughly a 500 Handle Range has developed for NQ. The 711s have seen the largest Call Option activities. but it remains a complete lock on IV, while the VIX is seeing its Summer Squeeze lower. Cross out VX and yet those Puts on the SPY continue to hold up well at elevated Price levels. Look over the 400 / 380 / 360 / 340 for AUG SPE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB and you'll clearly see Wall Streets expectations for Price out the Curve, there are some very large adjustments for Price on TIME. This implies - it is a time for extreme patientce. MSFT GOOGa GOOGl AAPL NVDA AMZN META TSLA - The MANGs have all been in relative Distro on balance while grinding higher... Apple cam off the 132s to 150 at present. Can it fill the Gap at 155? Appears it can. The Nasdaq 100 was down for the week, not a good look. In fact, it all was down for the Week. The Trend Lower is intact - BUT - there is room overhead within the Downtrend. How kinky can Wally behave? We already know. Short term, the 15 minute has some tailwinds on MBS providing a mild increase in Oil Supplies to current US Consumption... an accident? No, it meets the daily @ 70% of the present "reported" consumption. A win, as the Financial Media, will derive some tout mileage from it. Nancy found it prudent to load up on NVDA Calls front running her push on the Hill to shive the Semi Bill through during the Summer Doldrums. She's managed to accumulate an outsized position @ $8 Million. The rest of the handlers are struggling to hide Fiscal irresponsibilities behind the scenes while talking tough - "We're not spending another dime as America is broke." And yet negotiations on a $2 Trillion package remain underway carving out a lesser amount, close enough for comfort. Biden’s Build Back Better agenda focuses on a few healthcare items, incentives to rein in climate change, and raising taxes on the wealthy. An end to talks that Biden and his senior advisers led last year with Manchin and other Democratic holdouts on the full $2+ trillion agenda for the Green Beans. More spending as the Inflation / DisInflation tug o' war is underway won't give way until the August / September timeframes. The Bond Markets will embrace it by skying yields again. This provides cover for a limited amount of time. A very limited amount of time. Time is not on the Rigger's side. A nasty whacking of the VIX is in trade, and frankly... the Indies are lagging by a bunch, so they have some catching up to do ahead of Tuesday's 4 PM Settlement. We'll see if 24.30 now holds for the M1 VX Futures. The prior range of 25.80 to 29.30 was crushed, VXN remains elevated to a higher degree, still well off its highs. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Short Term, the next 10 trading days, we'll see how they range this - there should be a TOSS (Throw Over Short Squeeze) into Mega Cap EPS. 11767 to highs unfortunately will expand on either side... patience on this event as the Risks need to reveal themselves first. I have moved out to trading December NQ during RTH on the SELL, SEP as well, with minimal BUYs. Bonds remain on Dunk Tank Watch, it will require the Market to call the FED the FED again, it's a few weeks away. Patience. The Markets are consolidating a Downtrend Sell, Price has much further to Fall. Breaking down in the next 10 days, it amplifies the SELL.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
NQ - 15 Minute / 75 Sqeaks, Waller & Bullard"We're sticking to 75 Bips.... we swear." The Bullhonrs @ our destructive Federal Reserve is attempting to calm the Short End of the Curve for Bonds. Bonds that continue to fail at every auction, every one, epic fail after an epic fail. _____________________________________________________________________________________ The Global Economy is in ruins, no amount of short-term Discount Rate jiggering will ever serve to correct the malaise the FED created. Cost of Sales remains a loser to Inflation - it exceeds Pricing Power. The Consumer is under extreme duress, passing along further increases will be met with a decline in Sales Volume, as Net Incomes collapse 30-40% - Profit... they indeed implode. This is the Factual state of affairs within all Corporations. Expenses are vastly outpacing Net Incomes. Presently, on average - Corporations are losing at a rate of decline of 163% as Costs of goods sold runs away as Pricing Power contracts markedly. Consumers resist after substitution effects give way. ______________________________________________________________________________________ Delta, by example, Net income slid ~50%, and yet they report a beat... rather a beating. Good look? Clearly not. More Layoffs. This is the overwhelming Trend across all Sectors... it is unequivocal. ________________________________________________________________________________________ TECH is not immune to the phenomena, it is not special. By way of Fact, it is far more susceptible to faster and further Ratio reductions - by a very large reduction. With EPS ahead - Big Tech can likely see another attempt at a large Throw Over Short Squeeze (TOSS) only to crash back to lower lows, significantly lower into September thru October. Apple's Gap @ 155 can fill, and Tesla can trade over its recent high although Eron is Burning down the House. This week's close is important, Buying the Dip is being faded in the extreme. ________________________________________________________________________________________ The Q;s are outperforming the Spoos for July, the rotation is being defended... for now. Tech gender confusion? AOC on the Block? Nah, just more identifying with distraction, delay and derailment. I see sub 10K NQ into Fall without breaking a sweat. Using DEC Futures for Sells regardless of where Junk.Co heads ST, it's going far lower. Bring on the Squeeze Wally, we're looking forward to it. The Economy... it's terminal, we'll see if Sentiment agrees and dips in below 50 or does the Chef at the BLS buys some time while the souffle rises only to collapse in on itself.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
NQ - Daily 3 / 5 / 8 / 13 / 21 EMAsGive us the TOSS, please. We want to SELL this Junk Co. NQ performing like one of those captive Orca. Eating Training Wheel Trainers. It's post Solstice, the seasonals are weaker than Wet Napkins @ Taco Bell, but the DG's want to join the Chase. Although they remain non-plussed so far. Beaten with the Ugly Stick time after time will instill Fear. A couple of weeks, it's over again as Q2 EPS will be the biggest disaster YTD. Is Apple gonna beat? Is Tesla gonna have another blowout Quarter? Last time Eron lied his ass off, Tesla was halved... Couldn't happen to a bigger CON.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
8