NQ - 15 min / 11767 LIS - Upper Boundary 12262 - GLOBEX OPEN
Roughly a 500 Handle Range has developed for NQ. The 711s have seen the largest Call Option activities.
but it remains a complete lock on IV, while the VIX is seeing its Summer Squeeze lower. Cross out VX and
yet those Puts on the SPY continue to hold up well at elevated Price levels.
Look over the 400 / 380 / 360 / 340 for AUG SPE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB and you'll clearly see Wall Streets
expectations for Price out the Curve, there are some very large adjustments for Price on TIME.
This implies - it is a time for extreme patientce.
MSFT GOOGa GOOGl AAPL NVDA AMZN META TSLA - The MANGs have all been in relative Distro on balance
while grinding higher... Apple cam off the 132s to 150 at present. Can it fill the Gap at 155? Appears it
can.
The Nasdaq 100 was down for the week, not a good look. In fact, it all was down for the Week. The Trend
Lower is intact - BUT - there is room overhead within the Downtrend. How kinky can Wally behave?
We already know.
Short term, the 15 minute has some tailwinds on MBS providing a mild increase in Oil Supplies to current
US Consumption... an accident? No, it meets the daily @ 70% of the present "reported" consumption.
A win, as the Financial Media, will derive some tout mileage from it.
Nancy found it prudent to load up on NVDA Calls front running her push on the Hill to shive the Semi Bill
through during the Summer Doldrums. She's managed to accumulate an outsized position @ $8 Million.
The rest of the handlers are struggling to hide Fiscal irresponsibilities behind the scenes while talking
tough - "We're not spending another dime as America is broke." And yet negotiations on a $2 Trillion
package remain underway carving out a lesser amount, close enough for comfort.
Biden’s Build Back Better agenda focuses on a few healthcare items, incentives to rein in climate change,
and raising taxes on the wealthy. An end to talks that Biden and his senior advisers led last year with Manchin
and other Democratic holdouts on the full $2+ trillion agenda for the Green Beans.
More spending as the Inflation / DisInflation tug o' war is underway won't give way until the August / September
timeframes. The Bond Markets will embrace it by skying yields again.
This provides cover for a limited amount of time. A very limited amount of time. Time is not on the Rigger's side.
A nasty whacking of the VIX is in trade, and frankly... the Indies are lagging by a bunch, so they have some
catching up to do ahead of Tuesday's 4 PM Settlement. We'll see if 24.30 now holds for the M1 VX Futures.
The prior range of 25.80 to 29.30 was crushed, VXN remains elevated to a higher degree, still well off its highs.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Short Term, the next 10 trading days, we'll see how they range this - there should be a TOSS (Throw Over Short
Squeeze) into Mega Cap EPS.
11767 to highs unfortunately will expand on either side... patience on this event as the Risks need to reveal
themselves first.
I have moved out to trading December NQ during RTH on the SELL, SEP as well, with minimal BUYs.
Bonds remain on Dunk Tank Watch, it will require the Market to call the FED the FED again, it's a few
weeks away.
Patience. The Markets are consolidating a Downtrend Sell, Price has much further to Fall.
Breaking down in the next 10 days, it amplifies the SELL.
but it remains a complete lock on IV, while the VIX is seeing its Summer Squeeze lower. Cross out VX and
yet those Puts on the SPY continue to hold up well at elevated Price levels.
Look over the 400 / 380 / 360 / 340 for AUG SPE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB and you'll clearly see Wall Streets
expectations for Price out the Curve, there are some very large adjustments for Price on TIME.
This implies - it is a time for extreme patientce.
MSFT GOOGa GOOGl AAPL NVDA AMZN META TSLA - The MANGs have all been in relative Distro on balance
while grinding higher... Apple cam off the 132s to 150 at present. Can it fill the Gap at 155? Appears it
can.
The Nasdaq 100 was down for the week, not a good look. In fact, it all was down for the Week. The Trend
Lower is intact - BUT - there is room overhead within the Downtrend. How kinky can Wally behave?
We already know.
Short term, the 15 minute has some tailwinds on MBS providing a mild increase in Oil Supplies to current
US Consumption... an accident? No, it meets the daily @ 70% of the present "reported" consumption.
A win, as the Financial Media, will derive some tout mileage from it.
Nancy found it prudent to load up on NVDA Calls front running her push on the Hill to shive the Semi Bill
through during the Summer Doldrums. She's managed to accumulate an outsized position @ $8 Million.
The rest of the handlers are struggling to hide Fiscal irresponsibilities behind the scenes while talking
tough - "We're not spending another dime as America is broke." And yet negotiations on a $2 Trillion
package remain underway carving out a lesser amount, close enough for comfort.
Biden’s Build Back Better agenda focuses on a few healthcare items, incentives to rein in climate change,
and raising taxes on the wealthy. An end to talks that Biden and his senior advisers led last year with Manchin
and other Democratic holdouts on the full $2+ trillion agenda for the Green Beans.
More spending as the Inflation / DisInflation tug o' war is underway won't give way until the August / September
timeframes. The Bond Markets will embrace it by skying yields again.
This provides cover for a limited amount of time. A very limited amount of time. Time is not on the Rigger's side.
A nasty whacking of the VIX is in trade, and frankly... the Indies are lagging by a bunch, so they have some
catching up to do ahead of Tuesday's 4 PM Settlement. We'll see if 24.30 now holds for the M1 VX Futures.
The prior range of 25.80 to 29.30 was crushed, VXN remains elevated to a higher degree, still well off its highs.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Short Term, the next 10 trading days, we'll see how they range this - there should be a TOSS (Throw Over Short
Squeeze) into Mega Cap EPS.
11767 to highs unfortunately will expand on either side... patience on this event as the Risks need to reveal
themselves first.
I have moved out to trading December NQ during RTH on the SELL, SEP as well, with minimal BUYs.
Bonds remain on Dunk Tank Watch, it will require the Market to call the FED the FED again, it's a few
weeks away.
Patience. The Markets are consolidating a Downtrend Sell, Price has much further to Fall.
Breaking down in the next 10 days, it amplifies the SELL.
$200 Billion in follow on for Scientific Innovation - again "classified" for Senate Closed Door discussions.
August 4th is the drop dead date, Taiwan Semi is seeking to recover $12 Billion invested in AZ Semi Fab.
As well - investment tax credits for semiconductor manufacturers will be provided, a clear double dip for Semi Co's while WE Taxpayers get the 2X Bill.