28/09/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $115,537.51
Last weeks low: $108,606.86
Midpoint: $112,072.19
As BTC continued to trend down post FOMC the key HTF level of $108,500, after some chop at this level a late rally on Sunday has pushed BTC back to the Midpoint of the range for this week.
As September comes to a close we are at the point where banks window dress their balance sheets by de-risking going into Q4. Banks taking cash out of the market to appear there is less risk and more liquid to hide their true risk over the quarter. This lowers liquidity and for this reason I do not expect the bulls to be out of the woods yet and the weekly low ($108k) could be under attack again before the week closes.
The story is the same for much of the altcoin market, after continued downtrend majors are bouncing off key HTF S/R levels but conviction is still low due to quarter end.
This week I am looking at how BTC finishes the week once the month/quarter end is out of the way. If their is renewed optimism October.
In terms of seasonality October has an average return rate of 21.89% since 2019.
Should price break below weekly low the bullish HTF trend would be questioned and would open the door to a deeper correction. With the 4-year cycle predicted to end in late October there would be huge talk of the cycle repeating and the bear market beginning.
Good luck this week everybody!
