SOLANA - SHORT - THE WICK AND THE WHISPERTraders,
This is how I see SOL.
1. The level I care about
For me the key area is 205 to 207. Call it VAH, call it range high, call it supply. It is the place where price got stuffed before and where a lot of trapped memory lives.
What I expect is simple.
Wick it. Slip it. Fade it.
In other words I am looking for SOL to run into that 205 to 207 pocket, spike through it, clean the liquidity resting above those highs, and then fail to hold. That failure after the wick is the trigger for me. That is where I want to be heavy.
If SOL trades above that range high and then instantly falls back inside, that is a swing fail pattern at the high of the range. That is the same story I am hunting on BTC at 117.5k. Liquidity first, conviction second.
2. The downside path
If the wick and slip happens, my downside path is not small. My next meaningful target sits all the way down at 150 to 155. That zone is not just a guess.
It is where the last real demand block sat before we impulsed higher.
It is also where liquidity was never fully re balanced after the violent breakout.
Call it unfinished business. Call it imbalance that still needs to close.
The market eventually comes back to drink from the well it skipped.
3. Now we look under the hood
Price has pushed up into 200 again, yes. But the flow behind the move tells a different story than the candles.
Spot CVD
Spot CVD is bleeding down hard. Real buyers paying cash are not supporting this move. Spot is distributing into strength, not accumulating under it.
Stablecoin margined CVD
Stablecoin perp flow is also down. That means most of the USDT perp side is either taking profit into this move or outright selling into it. They are not chasing it. They are leaning against it.
Coin margined CVD
This is the biggest one. Coin margined CVD is aggressively down. That tells me coin collateral traders are smashing into the bid, basically leaning short into this push.
So ask yourself. If spot is selling, and perp flow is selling, and coin margined flow is selling, then why is SOL still pressing up
4. Open Interest is the answer
Stablecoin OI is grinding up.
Coin margined OI is going vertical.
That means positions are being added at the top, not closed. New size is entering into this level.
When coin margined OI spikes like that while coin margined CVD is negative, the usual read is this. People are opening fresh short exposure using SOL itself as collateral, hitting the bid all the way up, and still not getting the breakdown.
They are trying to fade the move. The move refuses to die. That is short fuel.
This is why SOL can still squeeze into 205 to 207. Shorts are stepping in early, and if you squeeze them one more time you get the wick.
But here is the catch. After the wick and slip, once that last round of shorts is blown and once fresh late longs FOMO in above VAH, there is nothing under price.
Spot buyers did not build a floor.
Perps did not build a floor.
The whole thing is hollow.
That is how you get air pockets.
5. How I am trading this
I am not here to wave a bull flag or scream bear. I am not interested in labels.
I am here to execute around the level.
My plan is to stalk shorts on a failed breakout of that 205 to 207 key. I do not need to nail the exact top tick. I want to see the wick into VAH, and then the rejection back inside the range. That is my trigger to build size.
Will I hold it all the way to 150 No blind loyalty. But that is where I believe the next true re balance sits, and that is the map I am working with.
If SOL breaks through 207, accepts above, and starts building structure above VAH, then this idea is invalid. I step aside. No ego. Survival first.
6. Summary
SOL is approaching a thin ceiling where liquidity sits. I believe we get a final run of that high near 205 to 207, a wick and slip, and then rotation lower. The flow supports that view.
Spot is not bidding.
Perps are selling into the move.
Open Interest is exploding at the highs.
That is the recipe for a squeeze candle into resistance, followed by a rug.
My destination if this plays out is 150 to 155, the next pool of imbalance where the market still owes a visit.
The chart is loud, but the flow is louder.
The candles brag.
The data whispers.
I listen to the whisper.
