Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Cut Bets Drive Rally ?OANDA:XAUUSD surged Friday after disappointing payroll data showing just 22K jobs added versus 75K expected, solidifying Fed rate cut expectations at 87.8% probability for September's meeting. The precious metal has already hit record highs above $3,500, gaining over 30% year-to-date as weakening labor conditions fuel aggressive easing bets.
The 4-hour chart reveals gold touched above the $3,600 resistance zone with bullish momentum intact. If the market pulls back then there's 38.2% fibo retracement level to consider. Overall gain of 4.75% in one week suggests minor consolidation might occur before targeting the upper resistance around $3,650. The ascending channel remains unbroken, supporting continued upward movement.
The broader perspective shows gold emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase, with the recent breakout confirming a major $3,500 level. Gold initially demonstrated its first impulse leg, then moved sideways for four months, and is now in the process of forming its second impulse leg, which will end at around $3,660.
Some economists now debate whether the Fed might deliver a jumbo 50-basis-point cut given consecutive weak employment reports, which could propel gold toward the $3,660-3,700 correction zone upper boundary. Key support lies at $3500-3530, while sustained weakness could test the major trendline near $3,450.
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
