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SILVER Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,316.9. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 4,596.2 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by SignalProvider
1
Silver (XAGUSD) – Bearish Momentum Building#Silver (#XAGUSD H4) – Bearish Momentum Building Current price: $52.46 Silver is showing early signs of a downside continuation after a completed corrective rebound. The structure suggests a potential shift toward a new impulsive leg lower. 🧩 Technical Overview • Price reversed from the $53.00 resistance zone after completing a local correction. • The rising channel was broken, confirming weakness and early downside momentum. • Market structure now favors a decline, with the trend shifting toward lower highs and lower lows. 📉 Scenario If price confirms a downward continuation: • Stop-loss: above the recent high near $53.00. • Once a clear H4 fractal forms, the stop should trail above the most recent fractal high. • The main downside targets are aligned with Fibonacci levels from the previous swing: – First zone: $50.50 (initial reaction area) – Next support: $47.20–$47.40 – Extended target: $44.10–$44.30 – Major accumulation zone: $41.20 ⚙️ Market Context • The overall bullish impulse from mid-September appears exhausted. • Lower timeframe momentum confirms growing pressure from sellers. • A clean break below $50.50 would confirm continuation of the downward leg. 🧭 Summary Silver remains in a corrective decline phase, showing potential for deeper retracement if sellers maintain control. As long as price stays below $53.00, the bias remains bearish, with focus on $47.20–$44.00 as the key reaction zones.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by NewOneCrypto
14
SILVER: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 52.802 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 53.558.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
2026 Precious Metals ETF Playbook: GDX SIL PPLT Parabolic Rally🚀 2026 Precious Metals Playbook: Why GDX, SIL & PPLT Could Go Parabolic ________________________________________ 🏁 Gold’s 2025 melt-up has flipped the script: spot blew through records and major banks now float targets near $3,800 by late-2025 and ~$3,900 by mid-2026. With expected Fed cuts, a softer USD, and persistent central-bank buying, the macro setup could keep miners turbocharged into 2026. 🧲 At the same time, robust demand (ETF inflows + central banks) even with real yields elevated shows that “fear and fiscal” have joined real rates as primary drivers. That’s the kind of buyer base that can underpin a blow-off leg higher in gold. 🔥 The gamma-squeeze setup is real in commodities too: heavy call buying can force dealers to chase deltas in futures, adding fuel to upside. If momentum reignites, gold’s second leg could shock even the bulls. ⚡️Silver is riding a different (but rhyming) story: persistent structural deficits and 14-year-high prices, with industry demand led by solar PV, electronics, EVs—and increasingly high-end compute/AI infrastructure where silver-bearing solders, contacts, and power electronics are critical. ☀️Macro tailwinds for silver’s industrial side look alive into 2026: PV installations, grid storage rollouts, and electrification keep factory demand stout—even with ongoing thrifting. Sheer volume growth can still outmuscle intensity declines. 🛠️Platinum’s bull case hinges on multi-year market deficits, entrenched autocatalyst substitution from palladium, and optionality from the early hydrogen economy. Supply hiccups in South Africa, paired with steady auto/industrial draws, can squeeze inventories quickly. ________________________________________ 🎯 Aggressive 2026 Scenarios & Targets 🧭 Premise: a “second-leg” melt-up where gold futures extend from ~$3,500 toward ~$7,000 (+100%) via treasury-to-hard-assets rotation and options-driven squeezes; silver plays catch-up with an industrial/safe-haven crescendo; platinum rides persistent deficits and auto/hydrogen demand. GDX — VanEck Gold Miners ETF Aggressive 2026 price target: $150–$220 (vs. ~$70 now). Why it could happen: • 💹 Margin math: with AISCs roughly anchored, every +$1000/oz in gold drops largely to miner margins, historically producing 2–3× sensitivity in equities vs. the metal. • 🔁 Flow catalysts: ETF inflows, central-bank buying, CTA trend signals, and options gamma dynamics can stack. • 🏦 Treasury rotation: if real yields slide and fiscal angst lingers, the allocation shift into gold miners can snowball. SIL — Global X Silver Miners ETF Aggressive 2026 price target: $95–$130 (vs. ~$66 now). Why it could happen: • 🏭 Industrial drumbeat: PV growth into 2026 + electrification keeps factory demand strong—even with thrifting. • 🧮 Deficit persistence: multiple years of market deficits tighten balances and prime upside tails. • 🧠 AI halo effect: data-center buildouts and advanced packaging sustain electronics demand where silver’s conductivity wins, adding narrative firepower to price action. PPLT — abrdn Physical Platinum Shares Aggressive 2026 price target: $250–$375 (vs. ~$128 now). Why it could happen: • ⛏️Deficits, again: without a step-change in mine supply, persistent market shortfalls can spark violent repricing. • 🚗 Sticky substitution: platinum that replaced palladium in gasoline autocats is embedded in designs—demand that doesn’t easily reverse. • 🔋 Optionality: PEM electrolyzers/fuel cells (hydrogen) magnify the upside if policy or energy security tightens timelines. ________________________________________ 🧭 2026 Primary Drivers to Track 🏛️Monetary & macro: Fed path, USD, and real yields remain core—if they trend down, gold’s opportunity cost falls and risk-hedging bids rise. 🏦 Official sector: Central-bank purchases have become a structural pillar—watch for continuity (or pauses) in monthly updates. 📈 Flows & positioning: ETF creations, futures options open interest, and CTA signals can amplify moves far beyond fundamentals (gamma-squeeze dynamics). Industrial pulse (silver): PV installations, EV production, grid/storage rollouts, and semiconductor packaging demand. Even with thrifting, sheer volume growth can drive sustained demand. 🔌 ________________________________________ 🔍 Other High-Octane Catalysts To Watch 🧩 Policy whiplash: tariffs, clean-energy incentives, and regional manufacturing policies can shift where PV growth lands, but global additions remain robust into 2026. 🌍 Geopolitical risk: commodity sanctions, shipping disruptions, and elections tend to feed gold’s safe-haven bid and can intermittently kink PGM supply chains. ⚙️South Africa power stability: any setbacks could crimp platinum supply; under-investment keeps the system fragile even with recent improvements. ________________________________________ 🧱 Positioning Blueprint (conceptual, not advice) 🧮 In a $7k gold blue-sky, miners should outrun the metal (margin + duration), silver miners should over-beta gold if the PV/AI/EV demand boom continues, and platinum offers clean metal-beta through PPLT. Platinum miners could add torque but also carry South Africa–specific risks. ⚠️Risks: inflation re-acceleration forcing hikes, a USD surge, ETF liquidation waves, PV-demand disappointments, or supply snap-backs could maul these targets; miners also carry idiosyncratic risks (cost inflation, permitting, geopolitics). ________________________________________ 🎯 Targets (2026 “go-for-it” bull case) • 🎢 GDX: $150–$220 on 2–3× torque to a gold melt-up, plus multiple expansion. • 🧪 SIL: $95–$130 if silver sprints on deficits + PV/AI/EV demand, with miners over-beta. • 🧰 PPLT: $250–$375 with sustained platinum deficits and sticky auto substitution.
AMEX:GDXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
46
Silver - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH4 - Strong bullish momentum. No opposite signs. Until the two Fibonacci support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by VladimirRibakov
Stop!Loss|Market View: SILVER🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for SILVER ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 50.05638 💰TP: 47.31895 ⛔️SL: 52.62271 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: The most likely scenario for silver is currently moving toward the nearest support level at 50.78000, where a downward breakout is expected. In this case, it would be safe to say the local uptrend has been broken. An alternative (less likely) scenario suggests a new high near 52, where a reversal could be anticipated. In both cases, it's best to look for a potential entry once the price reaches indicated levels. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by StopLoss222
SI1! - Dancing on the SILVER Tracks🔱 I like risk. Specially when it's skewed to my favor 🔱 WL1 has been reached, and the market is wildly overextended. Is it crazy to stand in front of this speeding train? Absolutely — if you don’t know when to jump. I’ve done my warm-up, and I’m ready to leap off the rails the moment it gets too close, too fast. My move is with options — that means my risk is defined, my escape route mapped. I would never short the underlying — not in a million years. Now let’s see if this setup earns me that Steak & Lobster target.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by HowToChart
SILVER: Move Down Expected! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 51.748 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 51.089.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
Gold Prices Overview of Primary Catalyst : October 2025📊 Catalyst Scorecard — Updated (10 = max bullish impulse) 1. Fed Path & Real Yields — 9.0/10 (Bullish) Markets lean toward additional Fed cuts into year-end as labor-market risks build; dovish signaling around/after Jackson Hole has coincided with record gold prints. Lower real yields remain the single strongest tailwind. 2. U.S. Dollar Trend — 8.0/10 (Bullish) DXY ~99 keeps FX headwind light for non-USD buyers; any further dollar slippage greases upside. 3. Central-Bank Buying / De-Dollarization — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Official-sector demand re-accelerated in August after a softer July; 2025 remains a strong year led by EM banks. This sticky, price-insensitive bid keeps floors firm. 4. Trade/Tariff Shock (Latest U.S.–China Escalation) — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Tariff brinkmanship has re-ignited, with scenarios floating sweeping new/raised U.S. tariffs on China up to triple-digits on some categories. Inflationary impulse + growth uncertainty = safe-haven and hedge demand for gold. 5. ETF & Institutional Flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish) Record-style inflows in Sept. (largest monthly on WGC data this year) and five straight months in Europe underline broadening participation. Flows amplify macro moves. 6. Systematic/CTA & Options Positioning — 6.5/10 (Mixed → Volatility) Trend-following and options gamma around big figures ($4,100 / $4,200) are magnifying intraday whipsaws. Inference from price behavior vs. round-number pivots and fresh highs. 7. China Growth/Property Stress — 6.0/10 (Bullish) Macro fragility + trade tensions keep risk appetite cautious and investment demand for hedges elevated. Macro inference aligned with tariff news and sustained safe-haven bids. 8. U.S. Fiscal & Credit Risk — 6.0/10 (Bullish) Deficits and periodic funding drama incl. shutdown headlines sustain a background bid for duration-agnostic hedges like gold. 9. Jewelry & Tech Demand — 4.5/10 (Slightly Bearish near records) At all-time highs, price-sensitive jewelry demand lags (India still seasonally active, but at higher rupee prices); investment demand dominates. 10. Geopolitics (Ukraine/Mideast/Taiwan) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish) Event spikes persist but remain secondary to the rate/FX driver set. 🗂️ Quick Table Rank Catalyst Score/10 Impact Direction Notes 1 Fed path & real yields 9.0 Very High Bullish Cuts priced; new highs on rate-cut bets. 2 Central-bank buying 8.5 High Bullish Aug net adds; robust 2025. 3 U.S.–China tariff risk 8.5 High Bullish Escalation chatter/looming hikes. 4 U.S. dollar trend 8.0 High Bullish DXY ~99 keeps winds favorable. 5 ETF/institutional flows 7.5 High Bullish Sept set records; 5-mo EU streak. 6 Systematic/CTA flows 6.5 Mod Mixed Round-number gamma, whipsaws. 7 China growth stress 6.0 Mod Bullish Macro fragility + tariffs. 8 U.S. fiscal risk 6.0 Mod Bullish Funding theatrics support hedges. 9 Jewelry/tech demand 4.5 Low Slightly Bearish Price-sensitive demand lags at highs. 10 Geopolitics (broad) 5.5 Low-Mod Event-Bullish Episodic spikes; not primary. ________________________________________ 🚀 Street Outlook — Bullish 2026 Calls ≥ $5,000 • Bank of America: lifts 2026 target to $5,000/oz (avg $4,400), citing sustained investment demand and macro hedging. • Société Générale: referenced alongside BofA in calling potential $5,000 by 2026 amid rate-cut cycle & trade tensions. Bottom line: High-conviction houses are explicitly flagging $5k scenarios into 2026 on the combo of easier policy, FX tailwinds, and structural buying. ________________________________________ 🧨 Spotlight: Latest U.S.–China Tariff Escalation Tariff rhetoric and policy paths have re-intensified into mid-October, with reports of much higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports incl. 100% in some proposals “looming”. The renewed brinkmanship is elevating inflation and growth uncertainty, a classic support for gold. ________________________________________ 🧩 Key Supports & Resistances Reference: Spot ~$4,123/oz; day’s high ~ $4,179, low ~ $4,091 (Oct 14, 2025). 🔼 Resistances • $4,180–$4,200: Record high / round-number supply (fresh sellers + optionality). • $4,250: Next psychological magnet; common options strike/target zone (technical inference). • $4,300: Major psychological figure; likely heavier gamma/stop clusters (inference). 🔽 Supports • $4,100: First intraday pivot (today’s congestion). • $4,000: Major psych level / prior breakout; expect dip-buying and CTA reloads. (Inference supported by recent breakout behavior.) • $3,900–$3,850: Pullback buffer from prior impulse leg (tech inference). • $3,750 / $3,700: Deeper mean-reversion shelf if macro data surprises hawkish. • $3,500: Cycle baseline—would imply a regime shift (low probability barring macro shock). 🧠 Trading implications: Expect chop around $4,100–$4,200 as options/CTA flows battle; decisive acceptance above $4,200 opens a momentum run toward $4,250 → $4,300. Failure to hold $4,100 puts $4,000 in play where physical + ETF dip-buyers likely re-engage. ________________________________________ 🌐 Flow & Positioning Notes • ETFs: September marked the largest monthly inflow of 2025, led by Europe (UK/CH/DE), extending a five-month streak—a textbook confirmation of bull-trend participation. • Official sector: Net buyers in August; EM central banks remain the anchor bid. • FX: DXY drift lower = mechanical tailwind; watch for USD squeezes around U.S. data prints. ________________________________________ 🧭 Risk Map What Can Derail $5k? • Hawkish upside surprises in U.S. inflation/growth pushing real yields higher (cuts repriced later/weaker). • Swift tariff de-escalation dampening inflation hedging bid. • Positioning washouts near round numbers if CTA trend signals flip (volatility risk). ________________________________________ ✅ Bottom Line Momentum, macro, and flows argue buy-the-dip into $4,000–$4,100 while the $5k-by-2026 narrative strengthens on the Street. Break and hold above $4,200 likely extends the up-leg toward $4,250–$4,300 near term; BofA’s $5,000 2026 call underscores the cycle’s runway.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
48
Silver - 45 Years of Breakout!Silver has just completed one of the largest and longest cup and handle patterns in financial history, spanning more than four decades. The metal has officially broken above the 1980 and 2011 highs, signaling a potential supercycle breakout on the monthly timeframe. This type of long-term technical structure typically marks the beginning of a massive secular bull run, often driven by macroeconomic shifts such as inflation cycles, fiat currency debasement, and rising demand for hard assets. Technical Highlights: - Pattern: 45-year Cup and Handle formation - Breakout Zone: Above $50 confirmed (Weekly chart) - Structure: Deep base formation showing multiple accumulation phases (1981–2001 and 2012–2023) Macro Perspective: Silver is benefiting from: - Increased industrial demand (especially in solar, EV, and electronics sectors) - Inflationary monetary policies and growing global money supply - Renewed investor interest in tangible and real assets This breakout could mark the start of a multi-year bull run for silver. Long-term investors may view this as an opportunity to accumulate and hold for 10–15 years, aligning with the magnitude and duration of the pattern. If the price experiences short-term pullbacks in the coming months, use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) to build long-term exposure. Conclusion: After 45 years of consolidation, silver is finally breaking free. The chart points toward a historic structural breakout, potentially setting the stage for the next precious metals supercycle. Cheers Hexa Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.
TVC:SILVERLong
by HexaTrades
Silvers reached a fresh record high due to the short squeezeSilver prices reached an all-time high of over 53 USD/ounce, driven by a significant short squeeze in London. This rally was further fueled by safe-haven demand following the resumption of US-China trade tensions. US President Trump expressed openness to negotiations after announcing an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, but China has not responded. Meanwhile, China's Sep exports surprisingly increased by 8.3% YoY, the fastest pace in six months, driven by demand from countries other than the US. Exports to the US fell 27% YoY due to tariff pressures. This indicates that the additional threat from Trump may not significantly impact China, especially given its crucial role in the AI value chain and its dominance in rare earth production. These elevated tensions could continue to drive markets toward safe-haven assets amid global instability. On the supply side, the London Bullion Market Association, as reported by Bloomberg, confirmed that it is “aware of tightness in the silver market and is actively monitoring the situation.” Mine production has remained below demand since 2021, primarily due to electrical and electricity demand, especially from photovoltaics, where China is a dominant force. The ongoing supply shortage could continue to support silver prices. Technically, XAGUSD is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking its previous record high, with both EMAs diverging and extending. XAGUSD could continue to rise and test the 227.2% Fibonacci extension at 60. Conversely, price could face take profit pressure after a long rally with the RSI indicates the overbought level (over 88). If the bullish momentum weakens, XAGUSD could test the resistance level at 47.88. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Stop!Loss|Market View: GOLD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for GOLD ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: - 💰TP: - ⛔️SL: - "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Metals continue to demonstrate impressive results. As a result, we are seeing new all-time highs. It's difficult to find any potential buy or sell levels for gold, but we can highlight an area around 4200-4250, where sell trades, especially mid-term, are highly likely to be liquidated. This assumption is based on a 25% price move from the start of the current rally since August, as well as the point of control (POC) of ​​the same rally around 3650. We should likely expect the end of the US shutdown, after which we could see a correction in metals. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
OANDA:XAUUSD
by StopLoss222
Silver has reached the launchpad.Not only did Silver finally hit a new all time high but even more impressive is that it finally closed a candle above the rimline of the 40 year old cup and handle pattern it has been forming since before I was even born. Considering how long it took to accomplish this I can not in good faith let one daily candle close trick me into thinking that it has validated the breakout but this is definitely a giant leap closer to validating an eventual breakout. I get the feeling people are going to be absolutely mindblown by what silver does when the breakout is validated. We are currently on our way to the dotted red trendline’s target but on the way they we should definitely validate the cup and handle breakout hitch will then has us heading to the exponentially higher dotted green lines target at around $722. Buckle up people and prepare for blastoff in the not so distant future. Also be aware that they could have multiple dips back below then back above and below and above the rimline of the cup (horizontal green line) before the actual breakout. Or it could just send a random moonshot candle up to the target as well n the very first try. Best to be prepared for both possibilities. *not financial advice*
OANDA:XAGUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Silver Shines — But Caution Ahead?Silver Shines — But Caution Ahead? - Silver has just hit a fresh all-time high of $51.70, breaking past its 2011 record. - However, the monthly RSI is racing toward the extreme 85.00 zone, a level that previously marked major tops in 2006, 2008, and 2011. Momentum remains strong, but history suggests (as shown in the monthly Silver Chart) that when RSI enters this zone, sharp pullbacks tend to follow. I don't mean, the the rally is over — but it's just a reminder that every time a steep vertical move is often followed by high volatility (volatility might invite pullbacks).
FXOPEN:XAGUSDShort
by Nadia_farhat
1
Silver bullish breakout supported at 4964The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 4964 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 4964 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 5190 – initial resistance 5275 – psychological and structural level 5355 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 4964 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 4920 – minor support 4870 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the silver holds above 4964. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAGUSD
by Trade Nation
Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🏆 Friday’s Close & Recent ATH: Gold XAUUSD closed Friday around ~$3,990–$4,020/oz depending on venue most consolidated feeds show prints near $3.99–$4.02k at Friday close. The nearest recent intraday highs printed in the $4,030–$4,060 area across data providers this week, putting $4,000 as the immediate psychological battleground and $4,050–$4,060 as the latest short-term ATH band. YTD performance remains extraordinary 2025 YTD still showing a very large gain. 📈 Trend Structure: Price continues to track a well-defined ascending channel on 1H/4H with clear impulsive legs out of recent consolidations. Market character = higher highs / higher lows, persistent dip-buying, and strong trend adherence into quarter-turn 25/50 handles near round thousands. Momentum has been resilient into week-end despite tariff headlines, suggesting structural demand and participation from official buyers. 🔑 Key Resistance Levels: The most critical resistances to watch updated from Friday close ≈ $4,000: • 4000 — immediate psychological round-number battleground. • 4,030–4,060 — recent intraday ATH band / short-term supply recent highs printed here across venues. • 4,075 → 4,100 — measured move / extension band if acceptance above the ATH zone occurs. • 4,150–4,200 — stretch momentum targets on sustained risk-off and break/acceptance above 4,100 structural extension. Quick note: different data vendors quote small differences in ticks — I used consolidated high prints to identify the ATH band. 🛡️ Support Zones: Immediate supports step down as follows • 3,980–3,960 intraday pivot just under Friday close. • 3,950–3,930 multi-day base / near-week lows. • 3,900–3,888 round-number shelf and the prior week’s consolidation band. • Deeper structural shelves: 3,860–3,840, 3,825, 3,800 → 3,775. A sustained break below ~3,900–3,888 would signal increasing corrective risk; daily close under ~3,825 would more clearly shift the regime. ⚖️ Likely Scenarios: • Scenario 1 Base Case – Controlled dip toward 3,950–3,930 or the 3,900 area to reload bids, then rotation higher toward 4,030–4,060 as buyers re-engage. • Scenario 2 Momentum Break – Quick clearance of the 4,030–4,060 ATH band → sustained acceptance above 4,075–4,100, unleashing momentum into 4,150–4,200. Overbought readings exist intraday, but structural demand has kept pullbacks shallow. 📊 Short-Term Targets: On continuation: 4,020 → 4,030–4,060 → 4,075 → 4,100, with 4,150–4,200 as higher extensions if acceptance holds. On retrace: 3,980 → 3,950 → 3,930 → 3,900 as the key retrace ladder. 💡 Market Sentiment Drivers updated: • Tariff shock / geopolitical risk: President Trump announced proposals for large new tariffs reports of a 100% tariff threat and expanded export controls on Chinese imports this week, escalating trade-war risk and knocking risk sentiment — that increases safe-haven demand for gold. News outlets Reuters, AP, WaPo and market reactions were visible Friday. • Rate & policy expectations: Markets continue to price material odds of rate easing/softer Fed path relative to earlier in the year; that reduces real yields and supports gold. Feeds and FedWatch implied pricing show elevated cut odds that underpin lower opportunity cost for gold. • Official demand: Central bank buying has remained constructive — WGC/official stats show continued net purchases in recent months monthly buying rebounded in August. This adds structural support to dips. • Macro/flow: Risk-off from tariff headlines, rare-earth export controls, and supply-chain concerns are the immediate drivers that could catalyze pushes toward the ATH band. 🔄 Retracement Outlook: A tag of 3,950–3,930 or a short stop-run into 3,900–3,888 would be a typical healthy pullback inside the trend. Fast reclaim of the first support band after a liquidity flush often precedes fresh ATH tests. Breaks under 3,900 that fail to reclaim quickly increase the probability of a deeper slide into the 3,860–3,825 shelf. 🧭 Risk Levels to Watch: • Bullish structure intact: holding above ~3,950–3,930 or more conservatively, above 3,900 keeps the bull case intact. • Bearish line-in-sand: daily close < 3,825 weakens trend; daily close < 3,775–3,750 signals a bigger corrective phase and opens lower targets. 🚀 Overall Weekly Outlook: Gold remains in a strong uptrend with $4,020–$4,030/ATH band $4,030–$4,060 → $4,000 as the immediate battleground after Friday’s close. Expect buyable dips while supports hold; the topside roadmap favors 4,075–4,100 and 4,150–4,200 as measured extensions if the market digests tariff news into a longer-running risk-off regime.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
50
Gold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market UpdateGold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market Update ________________________________________ • This cycle is different: record central-bank buying + renewed ETF inflows + lower real rates = powerful tailwind. • Price: Gold notched fresh ATHs this month (up to $3,790.82). 2025 is shaping up as the strongest year since the late 1970s. • Relative: Gold is crushing equities YTD (≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return). • Setup: A 13-year “cup-and-handle” breakout in 2024 kick-started the move. • Outlook: Base case from the Street: $3,700 by end-’25 and ~$4,000 by mid-’26; upside to $4,500 if flows accelerate. ________________________________________ 🏆 Historic Gold Bull Markets — Timeline & Stats 1) 1968–1980 “Super Bull” • Start/End: ~$35 → $850 (Jan 1980) • Gain: ~2,330% • Drivers: End of Bretton Woods, oil shocks, double-digit inflation, geopolitical stress. • Drawdown: ~–45% (1974–1976) before the final blow-off run. 2) 1999–2011/12 • Start/Peak: ~$252 (1999) → ~$1,920 (2011–12) • Gain: ~650% • Drivers: Commodities supercycle, EM demand, USD weakness, GFC safe-haven bid. 3) 2016/2018–Present (The “CB-Led” Cycle) • Start Zone: $1,050–$1,200 → New ATH $3,790 (Sep 2025) • Gain: ~215–260% (depending on 2016 vs 2018 anchor) • Drivers: Record central-bank accumulation, sticky inflation/low real rates, geopolitics; 2024 13-yr base breakout. ________________________________________ 📊 At-A-Glance Comparison (Updated 2025) Metric 1968–80 Super Bull 1999–2012 2016/18–2025 Current 🚀 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~215–260% (so far) ⏲️ Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (ongoing) 💔 Max Drawdown ~–45% (’74–’76) ~–30% (’08) ~–20% (2022) 🏦 Main Buyer Retail/Europe Funds/EM Central Banks (dominant) 🏛️ Pattern Secular parabolic Cyclical ramps 13-yr base → breakout (’24) Notes: current cycle characteristics validated by WGC demand trends & technical breakout in Mar 2024. ________________________________________ 📈 Top 10 Stats of the Current Bull (2025) 1. Price & ATHs: Spot $3,75–$3,79k; fresh ATH $3,790.82 on Sep 23, 2025. 2. 2025 YTD: Roughly +40–43% YTD (best since the late ’70s). 3. Central Banks: 1,045 t added in 2024 (3rd straight 1k+ year). H1’25 ≈ 415 t (still elevated). 4. ETF Flows: Strongest half-year inflows since 2020, aiding the surge. 5. Gold vs Equities: Gold ≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return YTD. 6. Jewelry Demand: Price strength is crimping tonnage (2024 down ~11%; Q2’25 –14% y/y), even as value hits records. 7. Gold–Silver Ratio: Now around ~85–88 (silver catching up as it pushes $43–$44). 8. Macro Link: Strong safe-haven bid + rate-cut hopes supporting new highs. 9. Technical: Confirmed cup-and-handle breakout (Mar ’24) underpinning trend. 10. Street Forecasts: DB lifts 2026 to $4,000; GS baseline $4,000 by mid-’26, upside $4,500 with bigger private-investor rotation. ________________________________________ 🔄 What Makes This Bull Different (2025 Edition) • 🏦 Central-Bank Dominance — Official sector is the anchor buyer (3rd straight 1k+ tonne year in 2024; 2025 tracking strong despite Q2 deceleration). • ⚡ Faster Recoveries — Pullbacks have been shallower and shorter vs the 1970s analog. • 📈 Coexisting With Risk Assets — Rare combo: gold ATHs with equities up YTD suggests a macro hedge bid alongside optimism in select risk assets. • 📐 Structural Breakout — The 13-year base cleared in 2024 set multi-year targets. ________________________________________ 🎯 Strategy Ideas (2025 & Beyond) Core • Buy/Hold on Dips: Stagger entries (DCA) into physical (allocated), ETFs (e.g., GLD/IAU), and quality miners/royalties. • Prefer Physical/Allocated where counterparty risk matters; use ETFs for liquidity. Satellite/Leverage • Silver & GSR Mean-Reversion: With the GSR ~85–88, silver historically offers torque in up-legs. Pair with high-quality silver miners. • Factor Tilt in Miners: Focus on low AISC, strong balance sheets, growing reserves, and jurisdictions with rule-of-law. Risk-Management • Define max drawdown tolerance per sleeve; pre-plan trims near parabolic extensions or if macro invalidates (e.g., real-yield spike). ________________________________________ 🧪 Reality Check: What Could Invalidate the Bull? • Real yields + USD rip higher (sustained), dampening non-yielding assets. • Sharp halt in official-sector buying (e.g., policy shifts). • Rapid growth re-acceleration reducing safe-haven & rate-cut expectations. ________________________________________ 🧭 Quick Reference Tables 🧾 Summary: Historic vs Current Feature 1968–80 1999–2012 2016/18–2025 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~215–260% Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (ongoing) Correction ~–45% ~–30% ~–20% (’22) Main Buyer Retail/Europe Funds/EM Central Banks Pattern Parabolic Cyclical Cup & Handle → Secular 🧩 “If-This-Then-That” Playbook • If real yields fall & CB buying persists → Ride trend / add on consolidations. • If USD + real yields jump → Trim beta, keep core hedge. • If GSR stays >80 with silver momentum → Overweight silver sleeve for torque. ________________________________________ 🧠 Outside-the-Box Adds 💼 Role in a Portfolio (example frameworks) • Resilience sleeve (5–10%): Physical + broad ETF. • Offense sleeve (2–5%): Quality miners/royalties; optional silver tilt. • Tactical (0–3%): Trend-following overlay (breakouts/consolidations). 🧭 Decision Checkpoints (quarterly) • Central-bank net purchases (WGC). • ETF flows (Western markets). • Real yields (10y TIPS), USD trend, and GSR. ________________________________________ 🔚 Key Takeaways (Updated) • Relentless official-sector demand + technical breakout are the twin pillars of this cycle. • Macro mix (policy easing expectations, geopolitics, diversification from USD reserves) supports an extended run. • Base case: Street sees $3.7k by end-’25 and ~$4k by mid-’26, with upside to $4.5k if private capital rotation accelerates. Manage risk; embrace volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
87