XAGUSD - Textbook Break & RetestAnalysis:
This setup is a lot like the gold one that we took earlier, so the analysis is pretty much the same. Price has been in an upwards trend for a while now, until recently where we've seen price reverse and start to head to the downside. In recent times we saw a huge bearish confluence form, which was a break of the upwards trendline that price had been respected. This showed us that the bears had the momentum to break the upwards trend and make a move to the downside, so this favours our bearish thesis. At the area of resistance we have marked out we can see that this is where the most recent lower high was formed. When this area was touched in the past we saw price form a big rejection and head to the downside. This move was also the move that broke the upwards trendline, so this is a very strong area of resistance and we're currently retesting this area. We expect that sellers will step in here and push price to the downside, which favours our idea. Another confluence we have to add to our bearish thesis is the 50% fib retracement level which is at our area of resistance. This fib retracement level is often respected and with this lining up with our area of resistance we have even more reason why we think it's going to hold and that this is where sellers will want to enter into the markets. We also have the retest of the previous upwards trendline. Often in trading we see support become resistance and resistance become support when the level is broken, so this is what we expect to see now. We expect that the upwards trendline will now act as resistance, favour our thesis. Technical wise we have a lot of confluences pointing to bearishness, especially from the area we are currently at. Looking at the fundamentals the USD is the strongest major currency currently, so we expect to see some bullishness come for the USD which would favour our setup. Overall a lot of confluences we pay attention to are pointing to more downside for silver which is why we have a short bias on this pair and with the news coming out today for the USD we could get the catalyst we need to see a continuation move to the downside.
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Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
