oliverrathbun

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

This is a serious bear... I am giving my short term/long term outlook here. Setting up for near term buy. Longer term I believe there will be another low coming. A wave 3 low is currently setting up with a long side wave 4 counter trend trade opportunity. Here is a Monthly Linear Chart with my anticipated pathway and target price for a longer term buy.

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

I'm reposting my long term/short term thoughts on the gold market. My opinion has not changed since my last post. There has been pertinent market activity that needs updating. We are getting closer to an important pivot point IMO. I believe we are embarking on the long slide down to the $1300 level. The pace of the decline should soon accelerate. This is an...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

NVDA ... Longer term LOG chart This is in a topping area of a "B" wave. I expect a decline to the lower black channel as illustrated on the chart... Price is currently in-between fibs .5 & .62. Could get a little tricky. A trendline break approach would be prudent IMO. See chart below...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

As a trader of the markets you always have to be prepared for black swan events that can become a fork in the road. Are we at a fork? I think there is real potential for that to be the case. If you look at my recent ideas there is a common theme. I'm expecting higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and weaker gold prices. What does this mean for stocks......

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

Here is my road map for TLT... T-Bonds This will have significant ramifications across many correlated markets. Think ES, DXY, Gold etc... I believe we close to embarking on a C wave move up to the opposing upper channel line. This could take on a variety of shapes/slopes. Time will tell. The bigger move ahead is down... although the move ahead will be worth...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

This is a follow-up to my previous post on Feb 9th. There has been a consolidation...base building if you will, around the longer term median line. I continue to believe there will be a substantial advance from this point to the opposing channel as charted. A move through the local overhead resistance will likely garner significant buying. Weekly chart in an...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

I had published an idea on GOOG in August suggesting one more decline to finish the correction. Here I am again suggesting the same. It looks like a double zigzag correction has unfolded... There should be a move to the lower channel line ahead...a pretty significant move. Position a short on a retracement at a little higher price? You could use a price over the...

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This is an update for longer term direction of the US Dollar. I am expecting new highs for the dollar. This is longer term time horizon projection. The overall direction will be largely dictated by US bond yields which I am expecting to rise to the 5% area. (See chart below) Immediate term direction in the $ will likely be down as I am expecting an easing in...

oliverrathbun Pro

ES WEEKLY Linear Chart - This is a Sell/Short idea... Will be looking for an ideal setup at the Wave 2 if swing trading. With this set-up you can view the early Feb top as a stop. This is a refinement of a previously published idea on my outlook for ES based mainly on my anticipated yield direction of the US10Y. See my idea on TBonds following the link...

oliverrathbun Pro

Charted is a proposed price pathway for the 10yr T Bonds. I'm looking for an easing in yield soon... in the 4.125 area (.786 Fib level) specifically, sometime in early March. This will represent the top of the b wave of wave 4 off the Aug. 2020 low. This expectation flies in the face of recently released inflation related news. As such my parameters are well...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

I Calls Em As I Sees Em. This is not a popular idea...Ask me how I know. Ha Ha This is a MONTHLY chart. Take that into consideration. I've been tracking/anticipating this trade for months. I believe I am at the point of taking this trade. Risk is well defined. As the chart illustrates I think we are now entering the acceleration down phase of the large C wave...

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I'm publishing this as an alternative EW count. I've been suspicious of many of the attempts to label the waves off the 2022 top. This hypothesis will be labeled as a "WXY" to label a double zig zag pattern On the ES...my assertion is the true top was in Nov 2021. The ultimate top was part of a three wave move that I'm counting as part of a series of three wave...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

What do we do with Tesla.... Breathtaking run up has shorts scrambling for cover. I'm initiating a Sell ... I think this is an important inflection point. Analyzing price structure on a weekly log (to get adequate perspective) I believe this recent run up represents a wave 4 of a large "A" wave in the long term view. EW alternation of wave 2-4 exist here. Wave...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

Silver and gold tend to move in tandem so this is not breaking new ground. See my post on Gold... link below This is a monthly linear chart. Keep that in mind. The proposed move will take some time for momentum to develop. As labeled on the chart I am expecting a 3rd wave down of "C" to commence soon. Commensurate with gold. Price pattern is strikingly...

oliverrathbun Pro

Where do we go from here? Ask a hundred people...get a hundred different opinions. Here's mine for whatever it's worth. The decline off the January '22 top left the door open for many corrective scenarios. You have the 2000/2008 "crashers" and you have the "correction is over" and we're on a Nirvanic journey into the stratosphere. There's little doubt in my...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

NG has sustained an ugly sell off. Not unusual in this market. This is an opportunity for short and longer term gains I believe. One needs to be prudent in selecting entry points in this market to manage risk. I believe we are now at that point. I will be looking to get long next week. If you prefer an etf to use UNG chart below. Ideally if A = C entry would be...

oliverrathbun Pro Updated 

Seems the conventional wisdom has assumed BTC has bottomed. The prevailing thought is gauging...how high is it going? I have a suspicion there is one more surprise ahead of us. This is strictly and solely based on my TA.... Nothing fundamental about it.... What has bothered me about the November '22 low is the structure did not resemble a climactic bottoming...

oliverrathbun Pro

This market has been in a 4 1/2 month decline. Traditionally this market moves inversely to the SPX. Although...not so much recently. Technically this looks like it's set up for a good risk reward trade. This scenario fits into my expected correction in the ES in the near term. See my posted SPX idea linked below..