GOLD @ Aug 11th - 16th : BATTLE AT $3,400Hello Traders,
We enter the new week with gold holding firm in the premium zone, just below the key 3439 high. The weekly structure remains bullish — every dip in recent months has been shallow, signalling that institutional demand is still in play.
This week’s macro calendar is loaded:
US CPI & PPI → set the tone for inflation and USD sentiment.
Hotter data? 📉 Expect a measured pullback.
Softer prints? 📈 Could be the fuel for a breakout above 3439.
Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment later may deliver the decisive push.
Gold is coiled, and next week’s data could be the spark.
Big Picture (Weekly)
Bias: Still bullish overall, but price is already in a premium zone (near highs), so new longs require patience.
Key Weekly Supply: 3350–3439 — last major institutional sell zone.
Key Weekly Demand: 3290–3260 — untested bullish base.
Bull Path: Weekly close above 3439 → target 3460–3475, then 3480–3490.
Bear Path: Rejection from 3439 → retrace to 3290–3260. Weekly close below 3260 could open 3100–3050.
Medium Term (Daily)
Bias: Bullish, but extended.
Daily Supply: 3395–3439.
Daily Demand: 3330–3310, then 3290–3260.
Bull Case: Break and close above 3439 → 3460–3475, 3480–3490, 3510–3525.
Bear Case: Rejection → pullback to 3330–3310 or 3290–3260.
Short Term (H4 / H1)
Current Price Zone: Around 3396 → a decision zone between demand at 3345–3365 and supply at 3418–3439.
Bull Roadmap:
Above 3405 → 3420–3440.
Above 3440 → 3460–3480.
Above 3480 → 3500–3520.
Bear Roadmap:
Below 3390 → 3340–3360 demand.
Below 3340 → 3280–3300 demand.
Key Takeaways for Next Week
Macro Impact: CPI, PPI, and retail sales data could trigger the breakout/rejection.
Upside Bias: Still dominant if 3439 breaks with conviction.
Risk: Multiple stacked supply zones above could cause sharp pullbacks.
Best Risk-Reward: Buy on dips into 3340–3360 or 3290–3260 with bullish confirmation; short from 3460–3480 if rejection shows.
Disclaimer: For educational context only.
