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Soybeans

Agro Commodity Watch: Soybean Sets Stage for Bullish Expansion🏦💰 SOYBEAN HEIST: The Cash Flow Caper! | SOYBEAN/USD Strategic Entry Plan 🎯 THE SETUP: Agricultural Gold Rush Edition Market: SOYBEAN vs USD (Agro Commodity - Cash Flow Management Strategy) Trading Style: Swing/Day Trade Hybrid Mission Status: 🟢 BULLISH BIAS ACTIVATED 📊 THE MASTER PLAN: Triangular Moving Average Breakout Strategy 🚀 Entry Conditions: Wait for the Triangular Moving Average (TMA) breach to the upside — this confirms our bullish trend validation! Once we see that clean break above resistance, we're ready to "acquire our positions" strategically. ⚠️ CRITICAL: Set price alerts on your trading platform to catch the breakout in real-time! 💎 Layered Entry Zones (Scaling In Like Pros): Strategic accumulation levels for risk management: Layer 1: $10.050 🎯 Layer 2: $10.100 🎯 Layer 3: $10.150 🎯 Layer 4: $10.200 🎯 Pro Tip: You can choose ANY price level entry after the breakout confirmation — these layers simply optimize your average cost basis! 🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL ⛔ Stop Loss Zone: $10.000 Important Disclaimer: This is MY personal risk tolerance level. As traders, YOU must determine your own risk appetite and stop-loss placement. Trade at your own risk and only risk capital you can afford to lose! 🎯 PROFIT EXTRACTION TARGET 💰 Primary Target: $10.400 The "Police Barricade" Analysis: This zone presents multiple confluences: 🔴 Strong resistance acting as psychological barrier 📉 Oversold conditions may trigger reversals Potential bull trap zone — time to secure profits! Exit Strategy: Consider scaling out positions as we approach $10.400. Don't get greedy — secure gains incrementally! Important Note: This target is MY analysis. YOUR profit-taking strategy should align with your personal trading plan and risk management rules. Always secure profits at YOUR comfort levels! 🌾 RELATED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES TO MONITOR Watch these correlated markets for confirmation signals: CORN ( CBOT:ZC1! ) 🌽 - Direct grain market correlation, often moves in tandem with soybean fundamentals WHEAT ( CBOT:ZW1! ) 🌾 - Grain sector sentiment indicator, affects overall agricultural commodity flows SOYBEAN MEAL ( CBOT:ZM1! ) 📦 - Derivative product, reflects processing demand and crush spreads SOYBEAN OIL ( CBOT:ZL1! ) 🛢️ - Key byproduct, influenced by biodiesel and cooking oil demand DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture ETF) 💵 - Broad agricultural sector strength gauge Dollar Pairs for Macro Context: DXY (US Dollar Index) 💵 - Inverse correlation: weaker USD = stronger commodity prices DX1! (Dollar Futures) - Real-time currency strength affecting agricultural export competitiveness Key Correlation: Soybeans typically exhibit negative correlation with USD strength. Monitor the Dollar Index for macro tailwinds supporting our bullish thesis! 🔑 KEY TECHNICAL CONFLUENCES ✅ Triangular Moving Average breakout confirmation ✅ Multi-layered entry approach minimizes timing risk ✅ Clear risk-defined stop loss below psychological support ✅ Target aligned with technical resistance + overbought zones ✅ USD weakness could provide fundamental tailwinds Risk Warning: Commodity futures and options trading carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You could lose more than your initial investment. "Thief Style" Context: The playful "heist" terminology is purely thematic storytelling to make technical analysis engaging — it does NOT encourage or endorse any illegal activities or unethical trading practices. All strategies discussed involve legitimate, legal market participation. 📣 COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #SOYBEAN #Commodities #AgricultureTrading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #BreakoutStrategy #CashFlow #RiskManagement #TradingSetup #FuturesTrading #GrainMarkets #USD #ForexCorrelation #MovingAverages #SupportAndResistance #TradingPlan #MarketAnalysis #CommodityFutures
OANDA:SOYBNUSDLong
by The-Thief
What's Next for Soybeans?The soybean market over the last four weeks has been volatile, largely driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, U.S. harvest developments, and South American weather. The market has seen consolidation within a range where it seems to be carving out higher lows and may be on track for prices to rise. The 50-day and 200-day moving average are right in line with each other on this daily chart and the market saw selling pressure from these levels in the recent down move. Futures prices generally remain under pressure from large supply estimates but see spikes and drops based on daily news. Most recently, prices have seen a sharp downturn, especially heading into the second week of October, with November soybean futures dropping significantly on fears of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The ongoing trade war has severely impacted U.S. soybean exports, as China (the world's largest buyer) has largely avoided new crop purchases. News and rhetoric regarding trade talks, including discussions of a potential meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, have caused significant price swings. The U.S. harvest is underway, and while some initial reports suggested yields slightly below the most recent USDA forecasts, the overall projected supply remains high, which is a bearish factor. However, logistical issues, such as critically low water levels on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, are raising concerns about the ability to move the massive crop, potentially firming the cash basis in some areas. Favorable weather for planting in Brazil and recovery from past drought conditions in Argentina are contributing to the expectation of large future global supplies, which puts long-term pressure on prices. Along with that, a U.S. government shutdown led to a postponement of key reports, such as the USDA's monthly WASDE report, leaving traders with less official information and relying more on private estimates and harvest reports. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZS1!
by CME_Group
Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025) Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZMZ25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure December soybean meal futures edged down by 0.8 USD to 277.4 USD/ton (-0.29%) after rebounding from strong support at 272.6 — the 100% Fibonacci extension of the August–September decline. The structure suggests a potential short-term corrective rebound, targeting 283.1 (Fib 61.8%) and possibly 300 USD if momentum builds. Medium-term trend remains bearish, though the narrowing downside range hints at a short-term technical bottom formation. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 289.5 – 300.0 – 311.2 Support: 277.0 – 272.6 – 265.1 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-term Trend: Rebound signals from 272.6 suggest potential upside toward 283 – 289.5, with a breakout above 283 confirming recovery momentum. (2) Volume: Slight uptick in volume during the rebound indicates renewed bottom-fishing activity. (3) Wave Structure: Likely completion of corrective wave C and start of a technical recovery phase (wave 1–2–3) targeting around 300. (4) Confirmation Signals: Close above 283 confirms recovery; drop below 272.6 invalidates the bullish setup and opens downside risk toward 265.1. 4. VNC View Short Term: Technical rebound expected as meal prices are heavily discounted relative to soybeans and soyoil. Medium Term: Supply-demand balance remains fragile — weaker crush margins and sluggish feed demand cap the upside. Risks: Stronger USD and Argentine export competition may pressure U.S. meal prices. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Preferred Long Setup: Entry: 276 – 278 TP: 289.5 – 300 SL: 272 Probability: 65% Short Setup (resistance test): Entry: 298 – 300 TP: 283 – 276 SL: 305 Probability: 40% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Feed importers: Consider locking in purchases around 275–280 if prices hold above 272. Oilseed crushers: Delay forward sales until prices approach 300 to secure better processing margins.
CBOT:ZMZ2025Long
by Hung-JK
Analysis techniques – Soybean Oil Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis techniques – Soybean Oil Futures (Dec 2025) Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZLZ25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure Soybean oil (Dec 2025) closed at 50.41 cents/pound (+0.16%), consolidating within a tight range of 49.5 – 50.5. After a prolonged decline since July, the market is forming a temporary base but remains under bearish pressure. Current structure suggests indecision, awaiting a breakout from the consolidation box. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 50.5 – 53.7 – 56.9 Support: 49.0 – 46.5 – 41.8 3. Detailed Technical Analysis Short-term trend: Sideways consolidation in 49.5 – 50.5; breakout will set next direction. Volume: Average trading volume, limited new flows. Wave structure: The prior bearish wave is stalling; a corrective rebound could emerge if 50.5 is breached. Confirmation signals: A close above 50.5 opens upside toward 53.7 – 56.9; a break below 49 targets 46.5 – 41.8. 4. VNC View Short term, soybean oil is in a fragile balance. A breakout from 49.5 – 50.5 range will provide a clear trading signal. Medium term, global vegetable oil supply (palm, sunflower) exerts strong competition, limiting sustainable rallies unless supported by crude oil or biodiesel demand. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Long Setup (on breakout): Entry: 50.6 – 51.0 TP: 53.7 – 56.9 SL: 49.5 Probability: 60% Short Setup (on breakdown): Entry: 48.8 – 49.0 TP: 46.5 – 41.8 SL: 50.5 Probability: 55% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Edible oil producers: May hedge raw material costs near 49 – 50. Biodiesel industry: Watch 50.5 breakout; increase hedging if confirmed. Exporters: Favor partial selling near 53.7 – 56.9 during rallies to avoid downside risks toward 46 – 42.
CBOT:ZLZ2025Short
by Hung-JK
Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025) Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZMZ25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure Soybean meal (Dec 2025) closed at USD 279.3/ton (+0.14%) on Oct 3. After testing the 272.6 support (Fib 100%) successfully, prices rebounded. The structure suggests a recovery wave is forming, with near-term targets at 283.1 and 300. The descending trendline from April remains intact, but a short-term rebound could extend if resistance at 283.1 – 289.5 is broken. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 283.1 – 289.5 – 300.0 Support: 272.6 – 265.0 – 260.0 3. Detailed Technical Analysis Short-term trend: The bounce from 272.6 signals a recovery setup. Trading volume: Bottom-fishing flows have returned, confirming strong reaction to support. Wave structure: The bearish wave since July may have ended at Fib 100%, opening room for a corrective rally toward 289.5 – 300. Confirmation signals: A close above 283.1 validates the rebound; failure below 272.6 risks further downside toward 265.0. 4. VNC View In the short term, soybean meal is in a technical recovery after a deep sell-off. Medium term, abundant U.S. supply and South American crop outlook remain bearish drivers. The 300 level is critical: a breakout confirms a trend reversal, while failure keeps prices range-bound at 265 – 280. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Preferred Long Setup (short-term): Entry: 276 – 278 TP: 289.5 – 300 SL: 272 Probability: 65% Short Setup (failed rebound): Entry: 289 – 290 TP: 272.6 SL: 296 Probability: 50% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Livestock sector: May hedge feed costs around 276 – 278. Exporters: Should sell partially at 289 – 300 to secure margins. Processors: Stay neutral, add coverage only if prices sustain above 300.
CBOT:ZMZ2025Long
by Hung-JK
Analysis techniques – Soybean Futures (Nov 2025)Date: 30/09/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZSX25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure Soybean futures (Nov 2025) remain under pressure after failing to hold the 10,500 resistance. Prices are trading below 10,200 and are testing the psychological 10,000 level, with risks of retesting the 9,790 support. The dominant trend remains bearish. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 10,160 – 10,500 – 10,750 Support: 10,000 – 9,790 – 9,610 3. Detailed Technical Analysis Short-term trend: The bearish momentum persists, with consecutive red candles confirming seller dominance. Trading volume: No major spikes, but sellers remain in control. Wave structure: A new bearish wave is unfolding, with 9,790 as the immediate target. Confirmation signals: A recovery above 10,160 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook. 4. VNC Intelligence Strategic View With the U.S. 2025 harvest nearing completion and expectations for strong yields, supply pressure remains elevated. Meanwhile, slower Chinese demand adds to the bearish tone. Only unexpected weather disruptions or acreage cuts in 2026 planting could shift sentiment back to bullish. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Primary Short Setup: Entry: 10,050 – 10,100 TP: 9,790 SL: 10,220 Probability: 65% Counter-trend Long Setup: Entry: 9,790 – 9,810 TP: 10,050 SL: 9,610 Probability: 50% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Importers may consider gradual buying around 9,800 – 9,790 to secure costs, while U.S. farmers are advised to lock in partial sales near 10,100 – 10,200 to protect margins amid a prevailing bearish environment.
CBOT:ZSX2025Short
by Hung-JK
Farmers Have Been Losing Money for Years Grain is planted in the Spring and harvested in Autumn. As shown farmers have been losing money for the past several years, buying grain in the spring and selling at a loss. The entire ag industry is (was) propped up by land inflation, driven by the fantasy of "Yellowstone" cosplay. Well, this sort of thing can only go on for so long before we run out of buyers. Best of luck to all the John Duttons out there. "Soft Commodities" showing you are underwater.
AMEX:CORNShort
by ChiefMacro
Soybeans vs USD: Breakout Robbery in Progress – Join the Escape!🚨💰🌱 Soybeans vs. US Dollar Commodities CFD Heist Plan (Swing/Day) 🕶️⚡ 👋 Dear Ladies & Gentlemen… and my fellow Thief OG’s 🐱‍👤💵, Tonight’s grand heist is in the Soybeans Vault 🌱💰 vs. the Mighty Dollar 💵. We move Bullish 📈 – the loot is ripe, and the guards are weak! 🎯 The Master Heist Plan Entry (Breakout Trigger): ⚡ 1065.00 👉 Once the vault door cracks open at 1065, we sneak in with Thief Layer Entries 🕶️🔪: 1063.00 1060.00 1055.00 1052.00 (Keep layering your entries, thief-style… the deeper the pullback, the fatter the loot 💎💸). Stop Loss (Thief Escape Plan): 🏃‍♂️💨 📍 The secret tunnel is at 1040.00. But hey thieves, adjust your SL 🔑 based on your strategy & risk appetite. Target (Police Barricade 🚔): 👉 1088.00 – That’s where the cops set up the roadblock, so escape with the bag before they catch you 🏆💰✈️. 🕶️ Thief Trading Wisdom Multiple buy limit layered orders = professional thief entry strategy. Always confirm the breakout before layering in. Police (market makers) will try to trap you – stay one step ahead 🐱‍👤⚡. 🔥 Boost our Robbery Plan if you’re part of the crew 💣💵! The more likes & views, the bigger the gang grows 🚀. #ThiefTrading 🕶️ #SoybeansHeist 🌱💰 #CommodityLoot 💸 #SwingTradePlan ⚡ #DayTradeRobbery 🐱‍👤 #USDvsSoybeans 💵 #BreakoutStrategy 📈 #LayerEntry 🔑 #TradingViewHeist 🚔 #MarketLootPlan
SLong
by The-Thief
SoyBeans Price Reversal – Time to Swipe Bearish Profits🔓 Operation SoyBeans: Vault Breach Underway! 💼🌾 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Calling All Market Bandits, Scalping Buccaneers & Swinging Looters 🕵️‍♂️💰💣 We've marked our next robbery target—the "SoyBeans" Commodities CFD Market. This isn’t just a trade, it’s an orchestrated heist built off Thief Trading intelligence: a mix of technical traps, fundamental cues, and criminal market psychology. 🧠💸 🔎 🎯 Entry Point - Where the Safe Cracks Open: The vault is wide open—grab bearish loot at any price! But for maximum stealth, layer in buy limit orders on the pullback using the 15m or 30m timeframe near swing highs/lows. (We thieves call this: DCA under the radar.) 🕳️📉 🛡️ 🚨Stop Loss - Our Escape Hatch: Set SL at the nearest 4H candle wick swing high (1040.00). Customize it based on your loot size (lot size), order count, & risk appetite. A smart thief knows when to vanish! 🏃‍♂️💨 🏁 💰Target - The Vault Cash-Out Point: Main Heist Target: 970.00 Or exit early if the cops (volatility) show up! 🚔🎯 💡 Scalper’s Note - Quick Grab & Dash: If you’ve got a heavy bag 💼💸, scalp short aggressively. If not, roll with the swing crew—use trailing SLs to lock the loot and flee clean. 💨📦 📉 Thief Insight – Why We're Robbing This Vault: "SoyBeans" showing bearish breakdowns due to: 📰 COT Positioning 📦 Inventory & Storage Data 🕰️ Seasonal Weakness 💭 Sentiment Drift 🔗 Intermarket Signals Get the full scoop—go dig deeper into your own thief intelligence sources. 📚🕵️‍♂️ ⚠️ Stay Alert – Market Mayhem Incoming! News drops = surveillance upgrades. Avoid new trades during major releases. Protect running loot with tight trailing SLs—guard your stolen goods! 🛑🗞️📉 ❤️‍🔥 Show Some Love to the Robbery Crew! 💥Smash that BOOST button💥 to fuel the Thief Army. Together, we rob smarter. 💰🚀 🔔 Stay Tuned, Looters: Another heist is being planned. Don't miss the next setup. Money is out there… we just have to take it the thief way. 🧠💎 📜 Disclaimer: This plan is for chart criminals in training 📉🕵️‍♂️ – not personalized financial advice. Always assess your own risks before raiding any market vault.
SKILLING:SOYBEANShort
by The-Thief
SOYBEAN; Heikin Ashi Trade Idea📈 Hey Traders! Here’s a fresh outlook from my trading desk. If you’ve been following me for a while, you already know my approach: 🧩 I trade Supply & Demand zones using Heikin Ashi chart on the 4H timeframe. 🧠 I keep it mechanical and clean — no messy charts, no guessing games. ❌ No trendlines, no fixed sessions, no patterns, no indicator overload. ❌ No overanalyzing market structure or imbalances. ❌ No scalping, and no need to be glued to the screen. ✅ I trade exclusively with limit orders, so it’s more of a set-and-forget style. ✅ This means more freedom, less screen time, and a focus on quality setups. ✅ Just a simplified, structured plan and a calm mindset. 💬 Let’s Talk: 💡Do you trade supply & demand too ? 💡What’s your go-to timeframe ? 💡Ever tried Heikin Ashi ? 📩 Got questions about my strategy or setup? Drop them below — ask me anything, I’m here to share. Let’s grow together and keep it simple. 👊
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Matej_trader
5
Soybeans and Rain: Moisture’s Market Impact on the Bean Trade1. Introduction: Moisture & Market Momentum Soybeans, often referred to as “the oilseed king,” are a cornerstone of global agriculture. As a leading source of protein for both humans and animals, their price fluctuations affect industries ranging from food production to biofuels. One key variable traders often monitor? Rainfall. 🌧️ Moisture plays a critical role in soybean development, influencing yield and quality from the moment the seed is sown. It’s no surprise that many market participants assume a strong correlation between rainfall and price behavior. But is that assumption truly supported by data? In this article, we analyze how varying precipitation levels impact weekly soybean futures returns. As you'll see, the results might not be as clear-cut as you’d expect—but they still offer meaningful insights. 2. Biological Realities: Soybeans’ Water Needs Soybeans thrive under specific conditions. While they’re generally resilient, rainfall—or the lack thereof—can tip the balance between bumper harvests and disappointing yields. During early vegetative stages, sufficient moisture ensures healthy root development. Later, during the pod-fill phase, rainfall becomes even more essential. Too little water at this point leads to incomplete pods or aborted seeds. On the flip side, too much rain can invite fungal diseases and delay harvests, especially in lower-lying regions. In countries like Brazil and Argentina, soybean fields often face seasonal extremes, while the U.S. Midwest typically enjoys more consistent conditions—though droughts and floods have both hit the Corn Belt in recent years. These environmental realities create natural volatility in both yield and pricing expectations. 3. Methodology: How We Analyzed Weather vs. Futures To explore the potential connection between rainfall and soybean futures prices, we collected weekly weather data for major soybean-growing cities across the globe. Each week’s precipitation was categorized using a normalized percentile system: Low Rainfall: below the 25th percentile Normal Rainfall: between the 25th and 75th percentiles High Rainfall: above the 75th percentile We then matched this data against weekly returns of standard soybean futures (ZS) and micro soybean futures (MZS), both traded on the CME Group. This allowed us to compare average price behavior in different rainfall scenarios—and test whether there was any statistically significant difference between dry and wet weeks. 4. Statistical Findings: Is There a Signal in the Noise? When examining the data, the initial visual impression from boxplots was underwhelming—return distributions across rainfall categories looked surprisingly similar. However, a deeper dive showed that the difference in mean returns between low and high precipitation weeks was statistically significant, with a p-value around 0.0013. What does that mean for traders? While the signal may not be obvious to the naked eye, statistically, rainfall extremes do impact market behavior. However, the magnitude of impact remains modest—enough to be part of your strategy but not enough to drive decisions in isolation. Soybean prices appear to be influenced by a mosaic of factors, with precipitation being just one tile in that complex picture. 5. Charting the Relationship: Visual Evidence While statistical tests gave us the green light on significance, we know traders love to “see” the story too. Boxplots of weekly soybean futures returns segmented by rainfall categories offered a subtle narrative: Low-precipitation weeks showed slightly higher average returns and tighter interquartile ranges. High-precipitation weeks had broader return distributions and more frequent downside outliers. Normal weeks exhibited relatively stable behavior, reinforcing the idea that the market reacts most during extremes. This kind of visualization may not scream alpha at first glance, but it reinforces the idea that precipitation events—particularly dry spells—tend to nudge prices upward, possibly as market participants price in production risk. 6. Trading Implications: Positioning Around Weather Here’s where things get practical. While weather alone won’t dictate every trading decision, it can be a key filter in a broader strategy. For soybean traders, rainfall data can help inform: Bias assessment: Low-precipitation weeks may suggest bullish tendencies. Risk control: Expect wider return distributions in high-precip weeks—adjust stops or contract sizing accordingly. Event trading: Pair weather anomalies with technical signals like trendline breaks or volume surges for potential setups. It’s also worth noting that weekly weather forecasts from reputable sources can serve as a forward-looking indicator, giving traders a head start before the market fully reacts. 7. Margin Efficiency with Micro Soybeans For traders looking to scale into soybean exposure without the capital intensity of full contracts, the CME Group’s micro-sized futures offer a compelling alternative. 📌 Contract Specs for Soybean Futures (ZS): Symbol: ZS Contract size: 5,000 bushels Tick size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Initial margin: ~$2,100 (varies by broker and volatility) 📌 Micro Soybean Futures (MZS): Symbol: MZS Contract size: 500 bushels Tick size: 0.0050 per bushel = $2.50 Initial margin: ~$210 These smaller contracts are perfect for strategy testing, risk scaling, or layering exposure around key macro events like WASDE reports or weather disruptions. For traders aiming to build weather-aligned positions, MZS is a powerful tool to balance conviction with capital efficiency. 8. Wrapping It All Together Rain matters. Not just in fields, but in futures prices too. While soybean markets may not overreact to every drizzle or downpour, extreme rainfall conditions—especially drought—can leave noticeable footprints on price action. For traders, this means opportunity. By incorporating precipitation metrics into your workflow, you unlock a new layer of context. One that doesn’t replace technical or fundamental analysis, but enhances both. And remember: this article is just one piece of a larger exploration into how weather affects the commodity markets. Make sure you also read prior installments. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by traddictiv
Soybean Breakout – Time to Steal Profits!🚨 "SOYBEAN HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot Ahead! 🎯💰 (Thief Trading Strategy)" 🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Raiders! 🌟 "The vault is unlocked—time to plunder the 🌱🍃SOYBEAN CFD market! Here’s your master plan for a smooth heist." 🔎 TRADE SETUP (Thief Edition) Entry 📈: "Buy the dip or chase the breakout—bullish momentum is ripe for stealing!" Pro Tip: Use buy limits near 15-30min pullbacks (swing lows/highs) for optimal theft. Stop Loss 🛑: "Hide your loot!" Set SL at nearest 4H swing low (1030.00). Adjust based on your risk appetite. Target 🎯: 1085.0 — or escape early if bears ambush! ⚡ SCALPERS’ NOTE: "Only long scalps allowed! Rich? Raid now. Poor? Join swing thieves & trail your SL!" 🔥 WHY SOYBEAN? (Bullish Catalysts) Technicals + fundamentals align for a bullish heist. Check: COT reports, seasonals, macro trends, and intermarket signals (links below 👇). ⚠️ WARNING: NEWS = VOLATILITY Avoid new trades during major news. Trailing SLs = your escape rope! Lock profits before the cops (bears) arrive. 💎 BOOST THIS HEIST! "Smash 👍 LIKE, hit 🔔 FOLLOW, and share the loot! Your support fuels our next raid." 🎯 Final Tip: "Profit is yours—take it and vanish! 🏴‍☠️" 📢 Stay tuned for the next heist! "Market thieves never sleep…" 😉
SKILLING:SOYBEANLong
by The-Thief
Stealing from bears: soybean long setup!🚨 THE GREAT SOYBEAN HEIST: Bullish Raid Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🏴‍☠️💸 🌟 ATTENTION, MARKET BANDITS & MONEY SNATCHERS! 🌟 (Hola! Oi! Bonjour! Salaam! Guten Tag!) 🔥 Using the ruthless Thief Trading Strategy (TA + FA), we’re executing a bullish raid on the SOYBEAN Commodities CFD Market! Time to steal profits from the bears before they wake up! 🥷💨 🎯 MASTER HEIST PLAN (BULLISH RAID) 📈 Entry Point (Buy Limit/Market): "The vault is unlocked—grab the bullish loot at any price!" 🔹 *For precision heists, set buy limits near pullbacks (15M/30M).* 🔹 ALERT: Set price alerts to catch the perfect steal! 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): 📌 Thief SL at nearest swing low (3H timeframe) – 1030.0 📌 Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance & position size. 🎯 Profit Target (Escape Before Bears Strike Back): 💥 1095.0 (or exit early if the trap snaps shut!) 🧲 Scalper’s Bonus: Only scalp LONG! Big wallets? Go all-in! Small wallets? Swing-trade the robbery! Use trailing SL to lock profits and escape clean! 🌱 MARKET TREND: BULLISH (BEAR TRAP SET!) Overbought? Maybe. But the real trap is where bearish robbers get slaughtered. High risk = High reward—only for cold-blooded traders! 📡 FUNDAMENTAL INTEL (DON’T SKIP THIS!) 🔗 Full reports (COT, Macro, Seasonals, Sentiment, Intermarket Analysis) in our biio! 🚨 TRADING ALERT: NEWS = DANGER ZONE! ❌ Avoid new trades during news! 🔐 Use trailing stops to lock profits & escape alive! 💥 BOOST THIS HEIST! (HELP US ROB THE MARKET!) 🔥 Hit LIKE & FOLLOW to strengthen our robbery squad! 💰 More heists = More profits. Stay tuned for the next raid! 🐱‍👤 See you in the shadows, bandits! 🤑🚀
PEPPERSTONE:SOYBEANSLong
by The-Thief
Soybeans and Heat: Subtle Signals in a Volatile Market1. Introduction Soybeans aren't just a staple in livestock feed and global cuisine—they’re also a major commodity in futures markets, commanding serious attention from hedgers and speculators alike. With growing demand from China, unpredictable yields in South America, and increasing climatic instability, the behavior of soybean prices often reflects a deeper interplay of supply chain stress and environmental variability. Among the many weather variables, temperature remains one of the most closely watched. It’s no secret that extreme heat can harm crops. But what’s less obvious is this: Does high temperature truly move the soybean market in measurable ways? As we’ll explore, the answer is yes—but with a twist. Our deep dive into decades of data reveals a story of statistical significance, but not dramatic deviation. In other words, the signal is there, but you need to know where—and how—to look. 2. Soybeans and Climate Sensitivity The soybean plant’s sensitivity to heat is well documented. During its flowering and pod-setting stages, typically mid-to-late summer in the U.S., soybean yields are highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations. Excessive heat during these windows—particularly above 30ºC (86ºF)—can impair pod development, lower seed count, and accelerate moisture loss from the soil. The optimal range for soybean development tends to hover between 20ºC to 30ºC (68ºF to 86ºF). Within this window, the plant thrives—assuming adequate rainfall and no pest infestations. Go beyond it for long enough, and physiological stress builds up. This is precisely the kind of risk that traders price into futures markets, often preemptively based on forecasts. Yet, trader psychology is just as important as crop biology. Weather alerts—especially heatwaves—often drive speculative trading. The market may anticipate stress well before actual yield reports come out. This behavior is where we see the beginnings of correlation between temperature and market movement. 3. Quantifying Weather Impact on Soybean Futures To test how meaningful these heat-driven narratives are, we categorized weekly temperatures into three buckets: Low: Below the 25th percentile of weekly temperature readings Normal: Between the 25th and 75th percentile High: Above the 75th percentile We then calculated weekly returns of Soybean Futures (ZS) across these categories. The results? Despite the modest visual differences in distribution, the statistical analysis revealed a clear pattern: Returns during high-temperature weeks were significantly different from those during low-temperature weeks, with a p-value of 3.7e-11. This means the likelihood of such a difference occurring by chance is effectively zero. But here’s the catch—the difference in mean return was present, yes, but not huge. And visually, the boxplots showed overlapping quartiles. This disconnect between statistical and visual clarity is exactly what makes this insight subtle, yet valuable. 4. What the Data Really Tells Us At first glance, the boxplots comparing soybean futures returns across temperature categories don’t scream “market-moving force.” The medians of weekly returns during Low, Normal, and High temperature periods are closely clustered. The interquartile ranges (IQRs) overlap significantly. Outliers are present in every category. So why the statistical significance? It’s a matter of consistency across time. The soybean market doesn’t suddenly explode every time it gets hot—but across hundreds of data points, there’s a slightly more favorable distribution of returns during hotter weeks. It’s not dramatic, but it’s reliable enough to warrant strategic awareness. This is where experienced traders can sharpen their edge. If you’re already using technical analysis, seasonal patterns, or supply-demand forecasts, this weather-based nuance can serve as a quiet confirmation or subtle filter. 5. Why This Still Matters for Traders In markets like soybeans, where prices can respond to multiple fundamental factors—currency shifts, export numbers, oilseed competition—small weather patterns might seem like background noise. But when viewed statistically, these small effects can become the grain of edge that separates average positioning from smart exposure. For example: Volatility tends to rise during high-heat weeks, even when average return shifts are small. Institutional players may rebalance positions based on crop health assumptions before USDA reports arrive. Weather trading algos can push prices slightly more aggressively during risk-prone periods. In short, traders don’t need weather to predict price. But by knowing what weather has historically meant, they can adjust sizing, bias, or timing with greater precision. 6. Contract Specs: Standard vs. Micro Soybeans Accessing the soybean futures market doesn’t have to require big institutional capital. With the launch of Micro Soybean Futures (MZS), traders can participate at a more granular scale. Here are the current CME Group specs: 📌 Contract Specs for Soybean Futures (ZS): Symbol: ZS Contract size: 5,000 bushels Tick size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Initial margin: ~$2,100 (varies by broker and volatility) 📌 Micro Soybean Futures (MZS): Symbol: MZS Contract size: 500 bushels Tick size: 0.0050 per bushel = $2.50 Initial margin: ~$210 The micro-sized contract allows traders to scale into positions, especially when exploring signals like weather impact. It also enables more nuanced strategies—such as partial hedges or volatility exposure—without the capital intensity of full-size contracts. 7. Conclusion: A Nuanced Edge for Weather-Aware Traders When it comes to soybeans and temperature, the story isn’t one of obvious crashes or dramatic spikes. It’s a story of consistent, statistically measurable edges that can quietly inform better trading behavior. Yes, the return differences may look small on a chart. But over time, in leveraged markets with seasonality and fundamental noise, even a few extra basis points in your favor—combined with smarter sizing and timing—can shift your performance curve meaningfully. Using tools like Micro Soybean Futures, and being aware of technical frameworks, traders can efficiently adapt to subtle but reliable signals like temperature-based volatility. And remember: this article is just one piece in a multi-part series exploring the intersection of weather and agricultural trading. The next piece might just provide the missing link to complete your edge. Stay tuned. 🌾📈 When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by traddictiv
2
"SOYBEANS" Commodities CFD Market Bearish Heist (Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the 🥔🍀🍃SOYBEAN🍃🥔🍀 Commodities CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 1D timeframe (980.0) Day/Swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 1100.0 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 🍀🍃SOYBEAN🍃🍀 Commodities CFD Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝ 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Inventory and Storage Analysis, Seasonal Factors, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets and Overall outlook score..., go ahead to check👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰🗞️🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
PEPPERSTONE:SOYBEANSLong
by The-Thief
Soybeans: The Global Protein Powerhouse🟡 1. Introduction Soybeans might not look like much at first glance — small, round, unassuming. But behind every bean lies a global story of protein demand, export flows, and economic policy. They feed livestock, fuel vehicles, nourish entire populations, and move markets. In fact, soybeans sit at the intersection of agriculture, industry, and geopolitics — making them one of the most actively traded and strategically watched commodities in the world. If you’re looking to understand how soybeans move markets — and how you can trade them effectively — this article is your starting point. 🌍 2. Why the World Cares About Soybeans Few agricultural commodities carry the weight soybeans do. Their importance spans both the food and energy sectors — and their global footprint is enormous. Here’s why they matter: Protein Meal: After processing, about 80% of the soybean becomes high-protein meal used to feed poultry, pigs, and cattle. Soybean Oil: Roughly 20% is extracted as oil — a key ingredient in cooking, industrial products, and increasingly, biodiesel. Biofuels: As the push for renewable energy grows, soybean oil plays a major role in sustainable fuel strategies. Top producers: United States — historically the world’s largest producer. Brazil — now rivals or exceeds U.S. production in some years. Argentina — a dominant player in soybean meal and oil exports. Top importers: China — imports over 60% of globally traded soybeans. EU, Mexico, Japan — also large buyers. Soybeans are a bridge commodity — connecting livestock feed, food manufacturing, and renewable energy. That’s why traders from Chicago to Shanghai watch every yield forecast and export announcement closely. 💹 3. CME Group Soybean Contracts Soybeans trade on the CME Group’s CBOT platform, with two main futures products: o Standard Soybeans Ticker: ZS Size = 5,000 bushels Tick = 0.0025 = $12.50 Margin = ~$2,150 o Micro Soybeans Ticker: MZS Size = 500 bushels Tick = 0.0050 = $2.50 Margin = ~$215 Soybean futures are among the most actively traded agricultural contracts, offering deep liquidity, tight spreads, and excellent volatility for strategic traders. Keep in mind that margins are subject to change — always confirm with your broker. Micro contracts are ideal for scaling in/out of trades or learning market structure without large capital risk. 📅 4. The Soybean Calendar Soybeans follow a seasonal cycle that creates rhythm in the market — and a potential edge for informed traders. In the United States: 🌱 Planting: Late April to early June ☀️ Pod development / blooming: July and early August (weather-sensitive) 🌾 Harvest: September through November In Brazil: 🌱 Planting: October to December 🌾 Harvest: February through April This staggered calendar means that soybean markets have multiple weather risk windows each year. It also means the export flows and global pricing dynamics shift between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres throughout the calendar year. That’s why soybeans tend to have two major volatility windows — mid-summer (U.S. crop concerns) and early Q1 (South American weather). Traders often build seasonal strategies around these patterns — buying weakness before key USDA reports, fading rallies during overbought harvests, or trading futures spreads between U.S. and Brazilian supply flows. 🔄 5. How Soybeans Are Traded Globally Soybeans move through a complex international web of growers, crushers, exporters, and consumers. As a trader, understanding this flow is essential — because each node introduces price risk, opportunity, and reaction points. Key players: o Hedgers: U.S. and Brazilian farmers hedge production risk using futures or options on futures. Exporters hedge shipping schedules against fluctuating basis and FX risk. o Crushers: Companies like Cargill or Bunge buy soybeans to crush into meal and oil. Crush margin (aka “board crush”) affects demand and influences futures spreads. o Speculators: Institutional funds trade soybeans as a macro or relative value play. Retail traders use micro contracts (MZS) to capture directional or seasonal moves. o China: Its purchasing pace (or sudden cancellations) can move markets dramatically. Announcements of bulk U.S. purchases could trigger short-covering rallies. Additionally, soybeans are sometimes traded indirectly via their by-products: Soybean Meal (ZM) Soybean Oil (ZL) These contracts often lead or lag ZS based on demand shifts in feed or fuel. 📈 6. What Makes Soybeans Unique to Trade Compared to wheat and corn, soybeans are: More weather-sensitive during July and August (especially to drought and heat). More globally integrated, thanks to China’s dominant import role. More complex, due to crush dynamics and multiple end-use markets. This multifaceted nature is why many professional traders monitor soybeans, even if they aren’t actively trading them every week. 📌 7. Summary / Takeaway Soybeans are one of the most important — and most tradable — commodities in the world. They feed livestock, fuel industry, and anchor the agricultural markets across two hemispheres. Their unique role in food, fuel, and feed makes them more than just another contract — they’re a barometer for global health, demand, and policy. Whether you’re trading the standard ZS contract or getting started with MZS, mastering soybeans means understanding weather, trade flows, product demand, and seasonality. 🧭 This article is part of our agricultural futures trading series. 📅 Watch for the next release: “Weather and Corn: A Deep Dive into Temperature Impact” When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by traddictiv
"SOYBEAN" Commodities CFD Market Bearish Heist (Swing/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the 🥔🍀🍃SOYBEAN🍃🥔🍀 Commodities CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe nearest or swing low or high level for pullback entries. Stop Loss 🛑: 📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 30mins timeframe (1015) Day trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 1060 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join Day traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 🥔🍀🍃"SOYBEAN"🍃🥔🍀Commodities CFD Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.☝☝☝ 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Inventory and Storage Analysis, Seasonal Factors, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets and Overall outlook score..., go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
SKILLING:SOYBEANLong
by The-Thief
"SoyBeans" Commodities CFD Market Robbery Plan (Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "SoyBeans" Commodities CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (975.0) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (1015.0) Swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 935.0 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 🥔🍀🍃"SoyBeans" Commodities CFD Market Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bearishness,., driven by several key factors. 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Inventory and Storage Analysis, Seasonal Factors, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
PEPPERSTONE:SOYBEANSShort
by The-Thief
Using Micro Soybean Futures to Finetune Trading StrategiesCBOT: Micro Soybean Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MZS1! ) Shipping industry news recently reported that 30 U.S. soybean ships (about 2 million tons) are currently heading to China, nearly half of which will arrive after April 12th, when China's 10% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans will take effect. How big are the tariffs? Let’s say a cargo of soybeans, or 65,000 tons, is sent to China. Assuming the trade is $10 per bushel, given 36.74 bushels per ton, total cargo value is $23.88 million. Upon arriving in China, you owe a new tax bill for $2.39 million! According to people familiar with the matter, many cargoes are for China Grain Reserves, which may be exempted from tariffs. Soybean cargoes loaded before March 12th are eligible for a one-month grace period. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 20th showed that the stock of unsold agricultural products in China was 1.22 million tons. Any sign of order cancellation will help us assess the real impact of tariffs. In anticipation of the tariffs, China rushes to buy U.S. soybeans in the past two months. In January and February, China bought 9.13 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S., up 84% year-over-year. I expect the buying will vanish by the second quarter, given new crop arriving from Brazil at much lower prices without the tariffs imposed by China. China relies heavily on imported soybeans to crush into soybean oil for cooking use and soybean meal, a key ingredient in animal feed. The oversupply of soybeans pushes the downstream soybean meal market to crash. According to the statistics of China Feed Industry Information, soybean meals spot market prices tumbled more than 600 yuan per ton to 3,180 since February, nearly a 20% drop. Top feed processing companies, including New Hope, Haida, and Dabeinong, have each announced price cuts ranging from 50 to 300 yuan per ton for their chicken feed and hog feed products. With lower overall demand, and tariffs making South American soybeans more competitive, U.S. soybeans face a shrinking export market. On my March 17th commentary “Soybeans: Déjà vu all over again”, I expressed a bearish view on CBOT Soybean Futures and discussed the possibility of $8 beans. Trading with Micro Soybean Futures On February 24th, CME Group launched a suite of micro-size agricultural futures contracts, including Micro Corn (MZC) futures, Micro Wheat (MZW) futures, Micro Soybean (MZS) futures, Micro Soybean Meal (MZM) futures and Micro Soybean Oil (MZL) futures. The contract size of the micro soybean futures (MZS) is 500 bushels, or just 1/10 of the benchmark standard soybean futures (ZS). The minimum margin is $200 for the front futures month, and it gets smaller further out. For instance, the margins for May, July, August, September and November are $200, $190, $180, $170, and $165, respectively. The smaller capital requirement makes it easier for traders to express an opinion ahead of the release of a USDA report or anticipate the impact of tariffs and retaliation. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of March 25th, CBOT soybean futures have total open interest of 853,368 contracts, up 5% in two weeks. • Managed Money has 89,649 in long, 123,470 in short, and 139,427 in spreading • Compared to two weeks ago, long positions were down by 12% while shorts were increased by 12%. This shows that the “Small Money” has turned bearish on soybeans In my opinion, micro soybean futures would be a great instrument to trade market-moving events, particularly the USDA reports. I list the big reports here for your information: • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), monthly, April 10th • Prospective Plantings, annually, March 31st • Grain Stocks, quarterly, March 31st, June 30th, September 30th • Export Sales, weekly, every Thursday • Crop Progress, weekly during growing season, April 7th, April 14th, April 21st • Acreage, annually, June 30th Hypothetically, a trader expects more soybean planting in this crop year and wants to express a bearish opinion ahead of April 7th Crop Progress. He could enter a short order for May contract MZSK5 at the current market price of 1,023. If he is correct in his view and the contract price drops to 900, the short position would gain $1.23 per bushel (= 1023-900) and the total gain is $615 given the contract size at 500 bushels. The risk of short futures is the continuous rise in soybean prices. The trader would be wise to set a stoploss at his sell order. For example, a stop loss at $11.00 would set the maximum loss to $385 (= (11.00-10.23) x 500). To learn more about all Micro Ag futures contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:MZS1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
6
Soybeans: Deja Vu all over againCBOT: Micro Soybean Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MZS1! ) Let’s rewire the clock back for seven years. In 2018, trade tensions escalated between the US and China, resulting in a series of tariffs and retaliations. On July 6, 2018, US imposed a 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports. On the same day, China immediately hit back with 25% tariff on equal value of US goods. American soybeans were among the hardest hit by tariffs. The United States has been the largest soybean producer in the world. According to USDA data, American farmers produced 120 million metric tons of soybeans in 2017, contributing to 35.6% of the world production. About 48.2%, or 57.9 metric tons, were exported to the global market, making US the second largest soybean exporter after Brazil. China is the largest soybean consumer and importer. In 2017, it imported 94 million metric tons of soybeans, accounting for 61.7% of the global imports. Brazil and the US were the largest sources of China’s imports, with 53% and 34% shares, respectively. Tariffs on US soybeans punished American farmers. Total tariff level was raised from 5% to 30%. As a result, the FOB cost to Shenzhen harbor in southern China hiked up 700 yuan (=$110) per ton. This made US soybeans 300 yuan more expensive than imports from Brazil. Tariffs priced American farmers out of the Chinese market. According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, China imported 1,164 million bushels of US soybeans in 2017. By 2018, China import dropped 74% to 303. While US exports recovered to 831 in 2019, it did not resume to the pre-tariff level until the signing of US-China trade agreement. CBOT soybean futures plummeted 15-20% in the months after the tariffs were imposed. US farmers incurred huge losses from both reduced sales and lower prices. The following illustration is an exercise of our mind, not from actual export data. • Without trade tensions, we assume exports of 1,164 million bushels each in 2018 and 2019, at an average price of $105 per bushel. This comes to a baseline export revenue of $244.4 billion for both years combined. • Tariffs lowered export sales to 1,134 million bushels for the two-year total, at an average price of $87. Thus, the tariff-impacted revenue data comes to $98.6 billion. • The total impact on soybean sales volume would be -51%, from 2,328 down to 1,134. • The total impact on export revenue would be -60%, from $244.4 to $98.6 billion. It is déjà vu all over again. In February 2025, the Trump administration announced 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This was raised by another 10% in March, setting the total to 20%. To retaliate against US tariffs, China imposed import levies covering $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and food products, effective March 10th. These comprised a 15% tariff on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn and cotton and an extra levy of 10% on U.S. soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and dairy imports. This is just the beginning. In the last trade conflict, average US tariff on Chinese imports was raised from 4% to 19%. Now we set the starting point at 39%. How high could it go? From history, we learnt that this could go for several rounds before it settles. Trading with Micro Soybean Futures On March 11th, USDA published its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Both the U.S. and global 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are basically unchanged this month, meeting market expectations. In the last week, soybean futures bounced back by about 2%, recovered most the lost ground since China first announced the retaliative measures. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of March 11th, CBOT soybean futures have total open interest of 810,374 contracts. • Managed Money has 101,927 in long, 109,849 in short, and 108,993 in spreading positions. • It appears that the “Small Money” spreads their money evenly, not knowing which direction the soybean market would go. In my opinion, the futures market so far has completely ignored the possibility of a pro-long trade conflict with China. • Seriously, ten percent is just the start. What if the tariff goes to 30% like in 2018? • How would soybean prices react to a 50% drop in US soybean exports? Anyone with a bearish view on soybeans could express it by shorting the CBOT micro soybean futures (MZS). These are smaller-sized contracts at 1/10 of the benchmark CBOT soybean futures. At 500 bushels per contract, market opportunities are more accessible than ever with lower capital requirements, an initial margin of only $200. Coincidently, Friday settlement price of $10.17 for May contract (MZSK5) is identical to the soybean futures price of $10.40 immediately prior to the 2018 tariff. History may not repeat, but it echoes . At the last time, the tariff on soybeans saw futures prices plummeting 20% within a month. If we were to experience the same, soybeans could drop to $8.00. This is a likely scenario if tariffs were to rise higher. Hypothetically, a decline of $2 per bushel would cause a short futures position to gain $1,000, given each micro contract has a notional of 500 bushels. The risk of short futures is the continuous rise in soybean prices. The trader would be wise to set a stoploss at his sell order. For example, a stop loss at $10.50 would set the maximum loss to $165 (= (10.50-10.17) x 500), which is less than the $200 initial margin. To learn more about all Micro Ag futures contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:MZS1!Short
by JimHuangChicago