XME call spread option trade$XME is a weird one, ill be honest. on the Weeklies, the trend is up, but on the dailies its starting to look very top heavy. MACD is signalling a sell, The one bright thing here is that we are near some major support, last attempt bounced this baby for 12 days. A break below this lever will open up a clear move to the 27 handle... The idea here is to Sell a Call Spread in June -32/+35 with mid-price of 45 cents. Thats an ROI of 15% for a 59 day hold
Spread
Adobe Trend Reversal or Buy Opportunity?
Adobe (ADBE) exploded upwards on Friday, March 16th after reporting their earnings. At the same time, a huge reversal bar formed on the daily chart with the close at $126.94. The following trading day’s bar closed just below the low confirming a possible reversal of a pretty massive uptrend the stock has been under over the last months. Not to mention, Adobe and Microsoft (MSFT) have announced a joint venture in customer engagement and marketing, as well as an Adobe announcements of new cloud services. The cloud services could become a new commercial source of revenue, especially with Adobe’s niche in the creative marketplace as opposed to cloud service providers like Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS.
But is it time to go short and sell? Well, for now, yes, or with less capital risk, fade the reversal. Fundamentals for the company are strong, with growth showing in the long term. But our strategy is a swing strategy to take advantage of lower risk opportunities. This trade with a stop loss above the high of the reversal bar at $130.30 is definitely not the lowest risk of them all, but a credit spread might suffice before a high potential for bullish continuation in the long run.
If you’re an options player like myself or a straight underlying trader, then here’s a few sets of trades depending on your investment style.
1) Short the stock
Entry: any price today
Stop: $130.31 on market close
Trail it after two more days of closing bars until breakeven. If the trend has started in the downward direction, trail it to our middle moving average and follow it until the bulls take over
2) Credit Spread
Sell X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 130 Strike
Buy X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 135 Strike
Max Profit: ~13% Return on Risk/Investment
3) Stay on the sidelines, and wait for a buy signal fractal for medium/longer term trade
Buy X Amount of Calls, 20 Oct 17 Exp, 115 Strike
Again, from a technical standpoint, we currently rate Adobe (ADBE) a Sell in the short term, but the bullish uptrend has a high likelihood of continuing in the medium to longer term due to the fundamental outlook and growth opportunities for the company.
Until our next article.
$NVDA $5 of Risk OpportunityIf you didn't notice the bullish reversal on 3/7, then another entry was on 3/17 for a long position. The trailing stop is $5 of risk, not too shabby. $NVDA is one of our favorites for a Skip-strike butterfly trade, especially if you want an OTM position for higher risk reward (due to the price fluctuation and strike hits).
Our youtube post on our site discusses the trade as well.
$AMZN Bullish Entry on Fundamental MoveAmazon (AMZN) announced as a catalyst to the upside they'd be eliminating a non-profitable acquisition from 7 years ago. This gave the bulls a run due to the massive cash flows dumped back into acquiring and expansion of the company, and shows a shift in focus to producing hard earnings numbers down the road. This likely will drive price further up into the earnings announcement due to speculation of further growth in the company in the long run.
Granted, from a long term perspective, AMZN is one of our least favorite companies fundamentally due to the huge overvaluation it currently poses to earnings, but from a short term perspective, it's great for a short term Skip-strike butterfly or spread trade.
Citigroup (C) A Great Candidate For A Downside SpreadAlthough the banking sector has largely had a rally since the Presidential election, regulatory headwinds and near-term fundamental outlook and projections have seemed bleak for Citigroup’s growth potential. Long-term, the stock is a great purchase at a somewhat discounted price to its recent trading, but for our swing strategy, the latest break to the downside into a possible downtrend or consolidation is an opportunity for us.
If you’re looking for a 1:1 risk/reward trade with a skewed probability curve starting at roughly 62% chance of success to earn 100% ROI, then Citigroup is a gem in this turbulent market. Actually, we found this trade while scanning due to possibly having to close for a loss on our recent Alphabet (GOOG) trade due to management’s screw-up on an epic scale regarding extremist videos and advertisements on Youtube .
Anyways, here’s the trade we see:
Current stock price $58.46
Buy X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58.50 Strike
Sell X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58 Strike
Max Return on Risk/ROI: ~100%
Fun times.
Educational Study: HOW TO TRADE "SPREAD"Educational Study: HOW TO TRADE "SPREAD"
SPREAD is a strategy in future market.
There are two spreads:
Inner Markret / Inter Market
Inner Market: Buy the GOLD FUTURE IN DEC and SELL GOLD FUTURE in Jan, or vice versa.
Inter Market: Buy the Gold and Sell Silver or Sell the gold and Buy the silver.
The beauty of this strategy is:
You are safer for risky events such as FOMC Meeting.
i.e. no matter what happens, gold and silver they will move together. and base on the location, I prefer to buy the gold and same time sell the silver for this FOMC meeting.
Successful $OAS Credit Spread TradeWe opened this position about 30 days ago and played the time premium after the huge up move in oil prices. Our initial risk was $200 for a total collection of $50.
BTCUSD bear call strategyThe bitcoin price broke recently the $750 resistance... but not for long.
Observing the price action, a potential short oportunity would be to wait for a lower top (lower than $753) to be formed.
Then one can start selling calls or call spreads at the $760 or $780 strike price.
Last time I checked at deribit.com (an options and futures exchange) the bids were $16.30 and $10.30 respectively for these options.
So the breakeven prices would be respectively $776.30 and $790.30 for a short call strategy.
NOTE:
I am just starting to trade some bitcoin options.
Seems to be a relatively new market, with not much liquidity; but one can still take good advantage of such oportunities.
Trade with care, always observe the risks and don't oversize your positions.
NOTE2:
Anyone would be so kind to act as a marker maker for bitcoin options?
That would be really awesome. =)
If I had more knowledge/experience (and money) I would certanly do it.
Well, we are still in an uptrend, technically speaking After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies in my opinion.
MSFT Cutting Credit Spread Losses ShortThe name of the game in trading is knowing when to cut your losses short. Goldman Sachs upgraded MSFT in premarket trading today, which caused a gap up in the opening price. We're in the red about $105 from an originally $252 max credit trade. We're going to wait for market close before cutting our losses on the position. If the close looks to be as if it's going to be above our moving averages (highly likely), we're going to take the loss. If not, we'll hold the position through Monday to determine whether to continue playing the game and even potentially open another credit spread on the Bull Put side for some time premium
Risky But Trendy Bear Call Spread Entry on TSLATSLA began its downtrend awhile ago, so it's already a volatile and risky stock to jump in on at this stage in the game. However, with good trade management, we can do an ATM Bear Call Spread at the 185 price mark. Trail your stop to the Red line, because this could turn at any moment. 1 month until expiration.
Crude target of 52 almost achievedCrude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago.
RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction is imminent. However this correction might well be sideways.
Overall physical trading volume has slowed according to my sources after the panic buying spree shortly following the OPEC meeting.
Overall we are in an uptrend, and I would expect we ll at least test the highs made earlier this year around 52.
Some light call spread selling might be good, but IMHO being conservative is the right play. No buying of downside options as that premium will just decay.
GOOGL BCS exp 7/15 nearing 15% returnGOOGL has just broke through 2 major supports and had nice gap down on 6/22. I can see GOOGL trading up a bit to retest but in will take the market some time to sort out what effect Europe thing will have on the market . Uncertainty= Fear = Selling
If you feel like directional trade I like GOOGL down to 618 (at least) enter on retest of the support
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