Russian GDP annual growth rate is expected to come out February 1 with an increase of 0,70% from 1,50% to 2,20% while GDP in April is expected to fall into a 2,10% growth rate, Agricultural GDP is almost at 2017 levels, and will likely contribute to a stronger ruble. Manufacturing and construction GDP is also inching for a strong growth rate this year. Exports is...
Gold/Silver spread is still strong with a Gold/Silver ratio around 83, indicating strong bias to gold. With incoming panic in the markets, debasement of the dollar, or both, we can expect the bullish move in gold and silver to continue in the long-term despite all attempts at suppression within the futures exchange. Silver has some serious catching up to do post...
Both UKOIL and USOIL are important in the energy sector, as they reflect the two most important types of Oil: UKOIL refers to the Brent crude which is extracted from the Oil fields in the North Sea, and USOIL refers to Western Texas Intermediary (WTI) which is extracted from the Oil fields in the United States. UKOIL is the reference Oil price for about two-thirds...
Canadian benchmark rate is at 1,75% and is expected to rise gradually but is dependent on the oil prices, as growing concerns
over growing surplus and lower demand. Canada is highly dependent on the U.S. economy where there are expectations
on a slowdown to more sustainable pace through 2019. Consumption spending and housing investment is slowly weakening, and...
High spreads between US10Y - DE10Y and US05Y - DE05Y, Can indicate some more downside risk for the euro.
There is also some hidden divergence marked with green lines.
European money is flowing into less riskier assets, as EU economic forecast have been slashed, while some banks are saying that the german economy is headed for a recession which is one of the...
Last couple of times we have had this tight spread between US05Y and US02Y a mayor decline in the S&P followed
Before the declines, we saw some increase in volatility. The same kind of volatility happened last year.
Could we see a mayor decline, or a correction this year, or will the S&P just keep moving up?
Global growth forecast have been slashed across the...
Buy: $84 Put 02/08
Sell: $79 Put 02/08
Buy: $74 Put 02/08
Max Profit: $750
Volatility contraction trade, TP around 10-20% of max profit. Somewhat risky but with a nice 3:1 Reward/Risk ratio.
China Q4 GDP Growth is expected to be at the slowest pace since 2009 at 6,4% YoY. This will probably also drag AUD down because of the high export to China. Meanwhile the Australian rate will be unchanged for quite a bit, where the Housing market index is also due to fall over the curs of 2019. Australian Housing market have been rallying for long time, Now the...
Overall there is bad data out for U.S. and the Euro zone. The bad data might not stop yet as we will be continuing seeing bad economic data in 2019 as global growth slow down.
USD and JPY is known as safe heaven, and could be the reason we have seen large moves in the JPY over the past couple of weeks.
U.S 30 year mortgage rate declined to 4,75% and could give...
During several previous liquidity crisis in 2001,2008,2012, 2016 the investment grade corporate yields spread over treasuries hit 200+ bps ... right now at an average spread of 150 basis points, may suggest more pain ahead before capitulation is reached. In other words investment grade corporate bond yields may be still too low. Based on what we've seen during...
This may not look like something to watch and you may not know about it. Only about 2% of investors understand it, however 98% of institutional traders (the “smart money”) watch it like the World Cup finals. Its the 10 year treasury yield to the 2 Year treasury yield ratio/spread.
Bottomline: If it goes negative (hits the dotted yellow line) =...
The graph is an update of the previous analysis and follows the spread between Italian BTP 10Y and German BUND 10Y with a timeline of the Italian government's announcement and the European Commission responses
This spread is called the Widow Maker and right now, you can see why this spread has its nickname. The extreme becomes more and more extreme. However, we think now is a good time to sell this spread.
If you sell this spread then you are trading 2 things
The goal is that the spread is tightening again.