Been watching for a reversal of the trend between the 2 indexes and a breakout of this bullish falling wedge for a while. Fundamentally it made sense to look for this breakout result because of the looming interest rate cuts and frothy bond yields since the start of the year. Small caps are highly sensitive to such things. Long IWM or TNA is the play on this...
In yellow is the TSLA/NVDA spread or ratio, and here it shows the jump off the all time lows with the huge price spike post Musk vote. With spread charts you can gain clues on future price action based on the other ticker. For the continued TSLA bull case, we get a pull back in the ratio to form the right shoulder of the IHS and then continue upwards. In that...
Navigating frothiness in US equities requires both caution and tact. With the S&P 500 nearing its all-time high amid flashing recession signals, investors must be vigilant with volatility during upcoming earnings season, driven by outsized expectations. This paper explores the persistent recession indicators and forces at play during upcoming earnings. The paper...
Copper is known as the electrifying metal. Copper's warm glow and durable spirit, copper wires the heart of many a machine. This reddish rarity has been super bullish in the recent past but less so now. That doesn't make it less investable. Just that nuanced investing approach is called for. Outlook for copper has become mixed once more, with near term demand...
This trade has bad idea written all over it. Don’t try this at home. Not investment advice. etc. It has come to my attention that HO i.e.. NY Harbor heating oil which is a proxy petroleum distillate for diesel has gotten more expensive than gasoline in recent years many times and that it has done so in an aggressive manner quite a few of those times. This...
We can see Contraction in Volatility Volume Spread Also we see clustering of Closes. The spring is being compressed for a explosive move. Probability seems to favor a move on the upper side.
SPX - Nice trend day in play. After defending previous day low we moved higher and breaking previous day high. Bull Puts on 1 + 1.5 sigma #BouhmidiBands working out fine today.
Gold is keeping a strong uptrend after breaking all time highs. We may experience small retracements, but we know the overall momentum is to the buy-side
Some industries are notoriously cyclical. Semiconductor is a prime example. It swings to the extreme on both bullish and bearish sides. While the industry is in a bull run, investors can still participate in its rise but with caution. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (“SOX”) is a modified market-cap weighted index. It is composed of semiconductor firms involved in...
Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high. Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store. This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the...
Many have heard about P2P cryptocurrency arbitrage using bank cards and exchangers. With this, there are a number of problems and risks associated with blocking accounts, freezing money indefinitely or blocking accounts on the exchanges, since in order to effectively engage in this type of arbitration a trader must have not only his personal cards, but also drop...
24-01-26 EURUSD Long Entry Trade Management Price Levels A. Move Stop loss to a take profit support level on a lower time frame Price: 1.08450 Locked In Risk to reward: + 0.25 % Going to the weekend * Left a bit of breathing room for spreads for sunday opening and to cover my risk if any large news happens this weekend * Signal Price Info Entry Price:...
When traditional markets sense optimism, crypto markets go straight to the moon. Bitcoin (“BTC”) has been on a tear this year supported by hopes of spot BTC ETF launch, rising regulatory clarity, and monetary policy easing. When BTC sentiment turns bullish, it leads to sharp outperformance in digital asset-linked stocks as noted previously. Coinbase is a top...
The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon! As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version...
Looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average vs Russell 2000 I believe we are looking at potential strength from the later. Growth stocks continue to stay buoyant.
Last week , we examined Natural Gas from a seasonality perspective. This week, we aim to extend that discussion and explore other ways to implement a similar view. To quickly recap: From a seasonality standpoint, we identified short-term opportunities for a downward move in Natural Gas. Factors such as higher-than-normal storage levels, unseasonably warm weather,...
Was curious to see the spread between the US National Debt and Real GDP. As we can see, the National Debt was sustainable prior to 2016 as productivity was greater, but this has since changed. How long can we continue this, especially with a looming recession aka reduced productivity in spite of continued deficit spending?
This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining...