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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P500 Short-term Bull Flag formed.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High. The price is currently on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), forming a Bull Flag after a 4H MA100 (green trend-line) rebound last Thursday. This is similar to the Bull Flags of August 25 and 05, which both ended with a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Even the 4H RSI sequences among the 3 fractals are similar with their Lower Highs structures. The only difference is that the price bottomed this time on the 4H MA100 (as mentioned), instead of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) of the previous 3 times. As a result, if this Bull Flag holds, we expect a quick rally to 6720 (just under Fib 1.236). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Thus (Sep 30)SESSION DRIVERS • Europe: Germany CPI/HICP prelim came in hotter (2.4% y/y). • Energy: OPEC+ chatter about a possible +500k b/d hike hit crude; watch cross-asset spillover. • U.S. tape: Headlines around government-funding risk; yields eased into week-start. → Net: headline sensitivity + range tendencies early; let NY cash open set the tone. INTRADAY BIAS & SCENARIOS Base case: Range-to-down if 6714–6724 caps on first tests → rotate toward 6696 then 6669. Alternative: Acceptance above 6724 flips momentum up → test 6731–6736 stops; extension possible toward 6750/6763 if buyers hold retests. Threshold: 6696/6694 pivot (ONL/London Low). Below = opens magnets 6686 → 6669. Above and accepted = re-target 6714/6724. LEVEL-KZ PROTOCOL (15/5/1) — SETUPS: Tier-1 (A++) Acceptance Continuation — LONG above 6724 Trigger: 15m full-body close >6724. 5m: Pullback holds 6720–6724 and re-closes up. 1m Entry: HL reclaim. SL: Below 15m trigger wick or 6716 (whichever is lower). • TP1: 6731–6736, TP2: 6750, TP3: 6763. Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner 30% to BE; no trail before TP2. Tier-1 (A++) Rejection Fade — SHORT at 6714–6724 Trigger: 15m rejection that closes back below 6714. 5m: Re-close down with LH. 1m Entry: First pullback lower-high. SL: Above 6728 (or 15m wick high). TP1: 6696–6694, TP2: 6689–6685, TP3: 6672–6666. Notes: Best on first touch during NY AM. Tier-2 (A+) Quick-Reclaim Bounce — LONG at 6672–6666 Trigger: Sweep 6666 → instant reclaim; 15m closes back above 6672. 5m: Re-close up holding the band. 1m Entry: HL. SL: Below 6658. • TP1: 6696, TP2: 6714–6724, TP3: 6731–6736. Size: ¾ normal. Tier-3 (A) Exhaustion Flush — LONG at 6654–6650 or 6639–6636 Trigger: Exhaustion wick + 15m close back inside; 5m re-close up. SL: 6–8 pts below the wick (respect the 15m anchor). • TP1: 6666–6672, TP2: 6696, TP3: 6714. Size: ½ normal. Use only if velocity spike + capitulation tells. RISK & EXECUTION GUARDRAILS • Hard SL on the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. • Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. • Max 2 attempts per level per session; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. • Daily guardrails: stop trading at −2R net or lock gains at +3R net. • Lunch 12:00–13:00 manage only; PM window 13:30–16:00 for second pass.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
SPX500 – Bearish Below 6,662 as Shutdown Risks Cloud Fed OutlookSPX500 – Overview SPX500 is trading cautiously as Wall Street weighs the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown and the Fed’s next policy steps. The lack of clarity over upcoming economic data—especially if NFP is delayed—adds to volatility and makes short-term moves highly data- and headline-driven. Technical Outlook The index has stabilized below the 6,662 pivot, which supports ongoing bearish momentum. → As long as price stays under 6,662, downside targets are 6,635 and 6,617, with a further extension toward 6,580 if momentum accelerates. However, if price stabilizes above 6,673, the bullish trend could resume toward 6,699 and higher. Pivot: 6,662 Support: 6,635 – 6,617 – 6,580 Resistance: 6,674 – 6,699 – 6,742
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX - That's all folks?The world has gone nuts, but markets didn't even blink. Now the SPX has reached it's U-MLH, which means, it's at a real extreme. This is a level where price starts to stall, then turn. Often we see "a last attempt" to break through, and it really could happen. But then, gravity again takes it's toll and the rocket starts to turn south. Here are the scenarios I see: 1. Immediate turn at the U-MLH. Target is the Centerline. 2. A break of the U-MLH, then back into the fork and a fall down to the Centerline. 3. Break the U-MLH, continuation to the WL1. The most unlikely would be 3. In my view, Party People should have left allready, but they refused to. And that's why this time headaches will be the least problem they face. Wating for a short signal, to load up heavy.
SP:SPXShort
by HowToChart
SPX: modest pullback, eyes on jobsDuring the previous week a small correction occurred on the US equity markets. The S&P 500 slipped down to the level of 6.570 on Thursday, but ended the week at 6.643. Regardless of a modest correction, the index is still moving close to the overbought territory. The key U.S. economic indicator this week was the August PCE Price Index. It rose 0.3% month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 2.7%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y. As per CME Fed WatchTool investors are continuing to price two rate cuts till the end of this year. Among the biggest losers in the index was CarMax, whose stock plunged around 20 % after disappointing earnings and weak commentary about demand and inventory pressures. Oracle also underperformed, falling 5.6 % after concerns were raised over optimistic cloud growth projections. On the upside, Intel was a top gainer in the S&P 500 that day, surging 8.9 %, driven by reports of possible investment talks with Apple. IBM also posted a strong gain (5.2 %), buoyed by optimism around applying its quantum computing capabilities to bond trading. The week ahead will be focused on US jobs data. The JOLTs Job Openings in August and Unemployment rate will be posted. This might bring again some higher volatility to the US stock markets, especially if data do not meet investors expectations.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
ES Futures (SPX, SPY) Weekly Analyses, Levels: Sep 29 - Oct 3 Weekly Outlook The trend remains bullish on both the weekly and daily charts, with price action re-accumulating beneath a well-defined supply zone around 6750–6760. Friday’s rebound from the low 6600s has established a higher-low structure on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, closing above the mid-range of 6612–6630, which shifts near-term momentum back in favor of the buyers. As we enter a catalyst-heavy week, the path of least resistance suggests a measured push through last week’s “weak high” zone (6750–6760). A decisive move above this supply shelf could target the psychological 6800 mark first, with potential for further upside towards 6865–6885, assuming momentum and market breadth are supportive. Conversely, if we fail to establish acceptance above 6755, the market could revert to a 6700–6760 range, with downside risks extending to 6620 in response to any hot economic data or risk-off sentiment in the headlines. Key catalysts this week (ET) Mon–Thu: Fed speakers scattered; watch for rate-path color and balance-sheet remarks. Tue 10:00: JOLTS (Aug). Wed 8:15: ADP employment (Sep). Wed 10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Sep). Fri 8:30: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Sep). Fri 10:00: ISM Services (Sep). Note: Any fiscal headlines or shutdown noise can skew liquidity and tape reactions around these prints. Tomorrow — NY AM plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) ES Long (A++) — 6750–6760 Acceptance Continuation Bias: Bullish if we get acceptance above the 6750–6760 shelf. Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6755. Then 5m pullback holds ≥6750 and re-closes up; enter on the first 1m HL. Entry: 6752–6756 pullback fill (avoid chasing a wick). Stop: Hard SL below the 15m break-candle low −0.50. Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. Targets: TP1 6798–6805; TP2 6865–6885; TP3 6900–6915. Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE. Trail only after TP2 or if a 5m lower-high forms against you. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level for the session. Invalidation: 15m body back inside ≤6748 or a failed 5m re-close (acceptance lost). ES Short (A+) — 6750–6760 Rejection Fade Bias: Mean-revert to base if the shelf is swept and rejected. Trigger: Sweep 6750–6760 and 15m closes back below 6748. Then 5m re-close down with a LH; enter on the first 1m LH. Entry: 6744–6748. Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.50 or ≥6762, whichever is tighter. Targets: TP1 6705; TP2 6680; TP3 6620. Management: Take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; consider covering more ahead of 6680 into data windows. Time-stop 45–60m. Max 2 attempts. Invalidation: 15m acceptance back above 6755 or a 5m close making new session highs. Price Projection for the Week Base Scenario: If we see early-week acceptance above 6755, look for targets at 6800, paving the way for a gradual move towards 6865–6885 by Friday. A soft-landing scenario, characterized by cooler labor growth and steady ISM data, could push prices even to the 6900–6915 range. Alternative Scenario: Should we experience a rejection in the 6750–6760 range, expect the ES to remain range-bound between 6700–6760. Hot labor market data or strong ISM figures could drive the price back to 6620, where it’s crucial for buyers to defend this level to maintain the uptrend. Execution Notes: - Focus on trade opportunities only within key kill-zones: primary session is NY AM from 09:30–11:00; optional trading during Asia/London sessions should be done at reduced sizes. - Adhere to daily barriers: halt trading at -2R or after achieving +3R net. - On first touch, prioritize R0/S1 as significant; consider de-risking during second or third interactions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
SPY trend Broken? Use this Long / Short StrategyLast week was a choppy sell off in the markets. We did see the bulls defend price later into the week by bouncing the main indices very nicely. We discuss the simple support / resistance where you should be watching. Using the daily 7MA as resistance can be shorted however if we recapture and close above, then the markets remain a long to new highs. The trend of higher lows is still in tact signaling bullish strength... can we search for a new higher high?
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trading-Capital
My view on S&P 500Looking at the structure, I think the S&P 500 may first pull back to retest the support zone, just as it did in April of this year when price dipped to that same area before continuing higher. This time, the support and the 50-week SMA are aligning together, creating a strong confluence that could serve as a base for the next upward move. From there, my view is that SPX could rebound and eventually push into a new all-time high around 7,000. 🎯 Conclusion: My outlook is constructive — I expect SPX to repeat its April-like retest, find strength at the confluence of support and the 50 SMA together, and then rally toward the 7,000 level. Still, markets are unpredictable, and this remains only my view. 👉 For more structured market insights and professional analysis, follow along.
SP:SPX
by abo0o
The AI Bubble's Final Act: Why $SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the TopThe AI Bubble's Final Act: Why SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the Top Unemployment + Rate Cuts = Recession (12 for 12 Since 1970) The Death Cross Pattern There's a simple rule that's worked for 55 years: When the Fed cuts rates while unemployment is rising from cycle lows, recession follows within 12 months - every single time. Think of it like a doctor taking your temperature while giving you painkillers. The medicine might make you feel better temporarily, but if the fever is rising, something serious is wrong underneath. Current Status: ✅ Fed just cut rates ECONOMICS:USINTR (September 2025) ✅ Unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR rising from 3.4% cycle low ✅ TVC:SPX at all-time high ($6,700) Historical Result: 12/12 times = recession + 35% average equity crash The Precedent: Crisis Follows a Script 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: Setup: TVC:SPX at ATH (1,550), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.9%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting Crisis: Technology "revolution" story breaks down Result: -49% crash over 2.5 years Recovery: 7 years to new highs 2008 Financial Crisis: Setup: CBOE:SPX at ATH (1,576), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 4.4%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting Crisis: Housing/credit bubble bursts Result: -57% crash over 1.5 years Recovery: 5 years to new highs 2025 AI Bubble: Setup: SPREADEX:SPX at ATH (6,700), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.4%→4.2%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting ✅ Crisis: AI productivity story meets employment reality Projection: -35 to -45% crash over 18 months Recovery: 3-5 years (faster due to tech infrastructure remaining) The AI Employment Paradox The Productivity Mirage Wall Street celebrates AI boosting productivity, but here's the paradox: productivity gains = job losses = reduced consumer spending = recession. Think of it like a factory owner celebrating a new machine that replaces 100 workers. Great for margins, terrible for the local economy when those 100 families stop spending. Jobs ECONOMICS:USNFP at Risk by Sector: Customer Service: 2M jobs (chatbots replacing agents) Software Development: 500K jobs (AI-assisted coding reducing teams) Transportation: 3M jobs (autonomous vehicles accelerating) Administrative: 4M jobs (AI handling routine tasks) Content Creation: 1M jobs (AI writing, design, video) Total Impact: 10+ million jobs facing displacement over next 2-3 years Why This Time is Different? Unlike previous automation waves that created new job categories, AI is targeting cognitive work directly. A factory worker could become a service worker, but what does a displaced knowledge worker become? Valuation Extremes: 1929 Levels with 2025 Leverage Current Valuation Metrics: Shiller CAPE: 38+ (higher than 1929's 33) Buffett Indicator: 195% (market cap/GDP, historical average 85%) Price/Sales: 3.3x (vs 1.4x historical average) Forward P/E: 23x (on optimistic AI earnings assumptions) Valuations today exceed 1929 by most measures - but with far more leverage embedded in the system. If 1929 was a valuation bubble, 2025 is that bubble layered with derivatives, corporate debt, and passive flows. The Leverage Layer: Margin Debt: $1.023 trillion (record high)( as of July 2025, ycharts ) Corporate Debt/GDP: 85% (vs 45% in 2000) Derivatives Exposure: $700 trillion notional ( as of June 2025, BIS semiannual data ) ETF/Passive Flows: $1.5 trillion annually (forced selling on reversals) When liquidity stress hits, derivatives amplify shocks - notional exposure dwarfs underlying assets. Think of today's market like a house of cards built on a trampoline. Even small bounces can bring the whole structure down. Technical Breakdown: The Charts Don't Lie Major Warning Signals: Market breadth has deteriorated from 90% in Q4 2024 to ~60% today, Defensives led earlier in the year, TVC:VIX Volatility’s floor has shifted higher Credit risk appetite (HYG/TLT) is stretched. Together, these signal fragility beneath the index surface. The Three-Stage Technical Collapse: Stage 1 - The Warning (Now-Q4 2025): Current Level: $6,700 Initial Support: $6,200 (previous resistance) Character: Failed rallies, rotating leadership, "healthy correction" narrative Target: 5,800-6,000 (-10 to -13%) Stage 2 - The Cascade (Q4 2025-Q2 2026): Breaking Point: Below 5,800 triggers algorithmic selling Character: "Buy the dip" stops working, margin calls begin Target: 4,800-5,200 (-25 to -30%) Stage 3 - Capitulation (Q2-Q4 2026): Final Flush: Panic selling, ETF redemptions Character: "Markets will never recover" sentiment peaks Target: 3,700-4,200 (-35 to -45%) The Catalyst: When Reality Meets Hype Q4 2025 Earnings Season - The Reckoning Companies will face impossible questions: "You spent $50B on AI - where's the revenue growth?" "Productivity is up 20%, why are you laying off workers?" "If AI is so transformative, why are margins declining?" The Employment Data Domino Effect: October/Nov NFP: First print above 250K unemployment claims November Consumer Spending: Down 2%+ as job fears spread December Holiday Sales: Weakest since 2008 January Layoff Announcements: Tech companies start "right-sizing" Think of it like the moment in 2000 when investors finally asked: "How exactly does Pets.com make money?" or 2007 when they wondered: "What's actually in these mortgage bonds?" Sector-by-Sector Breakdown Technology (-50 to -70%) AI hype stocks get destroyed first Software companies face declining growth + competition Semiconductor cycle turns negative Biggest Losers: NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL Consumer Discretionary (-40 to -55%) Unemployment hits spending immediately High-end retailers crushed first Auto sales collapse with higher rates Biggest Losers: TSLA, AMZN, NKE Financials (-30 to -45%) Credit losses surge as economy weakens Interest margin compression Commercial real estate exposure Biggest Losers: Regional banks, non-bank lenders Relative Outperformers (-15 to -25%) Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples Companies with genuine AI cost savings High-dividend yielders in low-rate environment Key Dates and Catalysts October 2025: Jobs report (first warning?) Q3 earnings disappointments Fed meeting (dovish pivot?) November 2025: Election aftermath volatility Black Friday sales data Thanksgiving week low-volume crashes December 2025: Year-end tax selling Institutional rebalancing Holiday retail reality check Q1 2026: Layoff announcements surge Earnings guidance slashed Credit events begin The Recovery Setup Why This Crash Creates Opportunity: Valuation Reset: P/E ratios back to historical norms Weak Hands Flushed: Margin traders eliminated Government Response: Fiscal + monetary stimulus AI Infrastructure Remains: Real productivity gains continue post-bubble Recovery Timeline: Bottom: Q4 2026 around 3,700-4,200 Initial Rally: 30-50% bounce over 6 months New Bull Market: Begins 2027 with stronger foundation New Highs: 2029-2030 timeframe Risk Management Rules This Analysis Fails If: Fed pivots to massive QE before crisis Fiscal stimulus exceeds $2 trillion quickly AI productivity gains offset job losses faster than projected Geopolitical crisis overrides economic fundamentals Probability Assessment: 60%: Correction to 4,800-5,500 range (25-30% decline) 25%: Major crash to 3,700-4,200 range (40-45% decline) 15%: Continued melt-up through 2026 (soft landing achieved) Conclusion: The End of the Everything Era At SPX 6,700 with unemployment rising and the Fed cutting rates, we're witnessing the final act of the 15-year "everything bubble." The AI revolution is real, but like the Internet in 2000, revolutionary technology doesn't prevent financial gravity. The bubble is ending exactly like the previous ones - with everyone believing "this time is different" right until it isn't. Smart money is already rotating defensive. The question isn't whether a correction is coming - it's whether you'll be positioned for it.
SP:SPXShort
by niclaxfx
36
US500: 7K ASSAULT BEGINS! Mega Bull Flag Breakout 🚀 US500: 7K ASSAULT BEGINS! Mega Bull Flag Breakout 📊 Current Price: 6,646.2 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰ 📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days) 🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 6,630 - 6,650 📍 Stop Loss: 6,590 🛑 Target 1: 6,720 🎯 Target 2: 6,780 🚀 🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 6,670 - 6,690 📍 Stop Loss: 6,720 🛑 Target 1: 6,580 🎯 Target 2: 6,520 📉 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN 📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS: RSI (14): 61.2 ⚡ *Bullish Momentum Building* Bollinger Bands: Coiling for Expansion 🔥 VWAP: 6,635 - Acting as Launch Pad 💪 EMA 50: 6,610 ✅ *Golden Cross Confirmed* Volume: Institutional Accumulation 📊 🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS: Elliott Wave: Wave 4 Triangle Complete 🌊 Target: Wave 5 Extension to 7,000+ 🎯 🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS: Bullish Butterfly at 6,600 Support ✨ ABCD Pattern targeting 6,780 🔄 ⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks) 🚀 BULLISH TARGETS: Psychological: 7,000 🏆 Monthly Target: 6,850 🌙 Gann Resistance: 6,900 ⭐ 📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION: Weekly Support: 6,550 ⚠️ Critical Level: 6,480 🚨 🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE: Trend: Ascending Triangle 💪 Momentum: Coiling Energy 🔥 Wyckoff Phase: Spring Loading 📈 Ichimoku: Bullish Cloud Break 🟢 🏆 MEGA PATTERN ALERT: Bull Flag Pole: 6,400 → 6,700 📏 Flag Consolidation: 6,600-6,680 🚩 Breakout Target: 6,980 (300pt move!) 💥 ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT: Max Risk per Trade: 1.5% 🛡️ R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 ⚖️ Breakout Confirmation: 6,690 close 📏 🌍 MARKET CATALYSTS: Q3 Earnings Beating Expectations 📈 Fed Dovish Stance Supporting Risk-On 🏛️ Economic Resilience Narrative Strong 💼 🔥 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: Breakout Zone: 6,680-6,700 💥 Support Cluster: 6,620 | 6,580 | 6,550 🛡️ Resistance: 6,720 | 6,780 | 6,850 🚧 🎯 FINAL VERDICT: S&P500 primed for EXPLOSIVE 7K RALLY! 🚀 Bull flag completion = 300+ point surge! 💯 Multiple timeframes align perfectly! 📈 Trade Management: Scale into dips above 6,620 💎 Breakout Alert: Watch 6,690 decisive close! 🔔 --- *⚠️ Disclaimer: High-risk trading. Use strict risk management. Educational analysis only.* For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 🔔 Follow for 7K Journey Updates | 💬 What's Your 7K Timeline?
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by sunya
September 2025 Market Summary Gold and ForexProjectSyndicate Market Summary September 2025 📊 MTD performance 🟡 GOLD (XAUUSD): 3,759.65 | +286.65 (+8.31%) 💶 EURUSD: 1.1702 | +16 pips (+0.14%) 💷 GBPUSD: 1.3392 | −112 pips (−0.83%) 💴 USDJPY: 149.19 | +211 pips (+1.43%) 📈 SPX: 6,637.97 | +236.46 (+3.69%) 📈 NDX: 24,503.57 | +1,483.10 (+6.44%) ________________________________________ 🗞 September overview • 🇺🇸 The Fed cut 25 bps on September 17 and flagged the possibility of further cuts this year, reinforcing a softer USD bias and boosting gold demand. • 🇪🇺 The ECB held rates on September 11, though left the door open for easing later. • 🇬🇧 The Bank of England held rates and slowed quantitative tightening on September 18. • 🇯🇵 The BoJ maintained a “hawkish hold” on September 19, started unwinding ETF/REIT holdings, and signaled possible rate risks into October — supporting JPY on abrupt USD strength. • 🟡 Gold made a fresh intramonth high near ~$3,790, before settling slightly lower. • Stronger U.S. economic data mid-month (jobs, yields) briefly undercut rate cut expectations, leading to a temporary gold dip, but the momentum has largely resumed. • Tariff announcements and trade-policy uncertainty added safe-haven tailwinds to gold. ________________________________________ 🟡 Gold Market Overview – September 2025 ✨ Key Highlights & Drivers • All-time high revisit: Spot gold pushed toward $3,790 mid-month on renewed enthusiasm for Fed easing and weaker USD. • Volatility around economic surprises: Upside surprises in US data (jobs, GDP) triggered brief USD strength that pressured gold, but the downside was limited. • Fed narrative remains gold’s ally: The dovish pivot (25 bps cut + future cuts flagged) continues to lend structural support to gold. • ETF & institutional flows: Inflows into gold ETFs have reaffirmed investor appetite for safe-haven exposure. • Risk / geopolitical spillovers: Oil price jitters, trade frictions, and general macro uncertainty underpin demand for non-correlated assets. • Technical posture: After surging, gold has found interim support in the region of ~$3,650–3,700, with resistance clustering near $3,800. A sustained break above the latter could open targets toward $3,900+. 📊 Performance Recap Gold has posted one of its strongest monthly performances of 2025, currently up ~8.7 % MTD. Stronger parts of the rally were clustered around rate cut confirmation and safe-haven demand spikes. 🔍 Risks & Watch-Outs • A surprise resurgence in U.S. economic strength (inflation, jobs) could push rate markets back toward dovish skepticism, pressuring gold. • A re-strengthening USD (driven by rates or yield spreads) will be headwind for dollar‐priced gold. • Central bank actions: further buying or selling by official sectors could tilt balance. • Technical overextension: short-term pullbacks or consolidations are plausible given the sharp run-up. ________________________________________ 💱 FX Landscape – September 2025 • EURUSD: The pair remains stuck under ~1.1700, recovering modestly from USD spikes but lacking strong directional conviction. • GBPUSD: Under pressure through the month, sliding toward 1.3350 as sterling weakens on yield differentials and global risk dynamics. • USDJPY: Strength in yields and risk dynamics have nudged USDJPY higher, though BoJ vigilance and intervention risk temper runaway moves. Broader theme: while risk sentiment supports carry / USD strength, central bank policy cycles and macro surprises are injecting volatility and preventing runaway trends. ________________________________________ 📝 Summary & Key Takeaways ✅ What Worked in September • Gold leveraged dovish central bank messaging and USD softness to consistently outperform across risk regimes. • Positioning toward safe havens paid off in a month marked by macro surprises and geopolitical noise. • FX markets remained choppy, with no clear trending momentum — caution was rewarded. ⚠️ What to Watch Going Forward • U.S. data flow — especially inflation, jobs, and PCE — could reshape Fed expectations and thus gold/FX direction. • USD momentum — a reversal in dollar strength could compress gold gains; sustained USD weakness could accelerate the bull run. • Intervention / central banks — any surprises from BoJ, PBoC, or central banks stepping into gold or FX markets could upend positioning. • Technical zones — if gold can break and hold above $3,800, it may open new leg toward $3,900+; failure may invite a pullback toward $3,650–3,700.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
35
ES Futures (SPX) - Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups - Thu, Sep 26News & catalysts (ET) 8:30 — PCE & Core PCE (Aug) , the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Market focus is on Core PCE ~2.9% YoY and ~0.2% MoM consensus. 10:00 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final Sep) . Scheduled time confirmed by Fed speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman in a 10:00 discussion; Fed Board’s Beth Anne Wilson remarks at 8:45 at a New York Fed conference. Earnings/overnight tone: Costco (COST) reported FY Q4 results Thu after close; headlines can sway retail/consumer sentiment pre-open. Nike (NKE) is due Tue 9/30 after close (next week). Bias: Base case: Two-way trade into 8:30, directional break afterward. If Core PCE ≤ 0.2% MoM or ≤ 2.8% YoY: risk-on; favor upside continuation through near-term supply toward 6700+. If Core PCE ≥ 0.3% MoM or ≥ 3.0% YoY: risk-off; favor sell-the-rips into 6630 → 6605 ladder. Secondary input 10:00: Michigan Sentiment can add a second impulse; weak sentiment keeps rallies fragile. PA roadmap Overnight: Expect balance inside 6655–6675 until 8:30. Liquidity likely pools above 6675 and below 6650 for the data sweep. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Trade the post-8:30 acceptance: continuation if 15m structure accepts beyond a zone; fade if we get swift rejection back inside. NY PM (13:30–16:00): Look for consolidation breaks toward untested AM extremes; avoid initiating inside mid-range chop. Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) A++ Acceptance Long (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6670–6675, followed by 5m pullback that re-closes above. Entry: 1m HL after the 5m re-close. SL: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6705, TP2 6725, TP3 6760–6765. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Invalidation: 15m body back inside 6670 (acceptance lost). A++ Acceptance Short (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6655, then 5m pullback that fails and re-closes below. Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close. SL: Above the 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6631–6635, TP2 6605–6608, TP3 6580–6585. Management: Same as above. Invalidation: 15m body back above 6658.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES-mini Futures - (SPX) Analyses for Sep 25Market drivers for Thu, Sep 25 (ET) • 8:30 — GDP 2Q (Third estimate) + Corporate Profits (annual update). Official BEA release. • 8:30 — Durable Goods (Advance, Aug). Census M3 advance report (release time 8:30 a.m. ET). • 8:30 — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). DoL weekly claims (standard Thu 8:30 a.m. ET cadence). • 10:00 — Existing-Home Sales (Aug). National Association of Realtors, scheduled for Thu 10:00 a.m. ET. • Fed speakers — Vice Chair Bowman: 9:00 a.m. (Economic Outlook) and 1:00 p.m. (Approach to Monetary Policy). • Treasury — Multiple bill auctions scheduled for Sep 25 (4-, 6-, 13-, 26-, 52-week). Watch rate/curve reaction around midday. • (Context) Atlanta Fed GDPNow next update Fri, Sep 26 (used by markets for GDP tracking). Risk windows to respect: 8:30 (data cluster) and 10:00 (housing). Avoid fresh entries ~5m before/after these prints; expect liquidity gaps. Overall bias & PA projection (overnight → tomorrow) Structure: Uptrend on higher timeframes, but near a weekly/4H supply cap ~6,76x–6,78x with a fresh H1 pullback printed. Bias into NY: Balanced-to-slightly-bullish if 6,67x holds. Below that, rotation toward the extension cluster 6,66x–6,64x likely before buyers try again. Overnight projection: Asia/London likely to range 6,68x–6,70x. A London stop-run under 6,678 that quickly reclaims sets the stage for NY bounce. Acceptance below 6,672 opens 6,659 → 6,640 → 6,619. NY session — A++ setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Management rules (as usual): TP1 = next opposing MAJOR level; close 70% at TP1, leave 30% runner → TP2/TP3; hard SL = 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50pt; time-stop 45–60m; max 2 attempts per level. ES SHORT (A++) — Rejection Fade at 6,735–6,750 Trigger: 15m rejection close back inside the zone → 5m re-close down with LH → 1m pullback fail to enter. Entry: 6,740 ±2 (within zone after the 1m pullback). SL: Above the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,768. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,678–6,672 shelf. • TP3: 6,659–6,640 ext cluster. Invalidation / maintenance: Two whipsaws or a 15m body-through ≥1.0pt above 6,768 → demote/stand down; acceptance >6,768 flips bias to longs toward 6,78x. ES LONG (A++) — Acceptance-Continuation from 6,658–6,642 Context: High-prob “flush & reclaim” at the extension cluster before/after 8:30 data. Trigger: 15m full-body close back above 6,652, 5m HL + re-close up, 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,650 ±3 after reclaim. SL: Below the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,637. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,724–6,735 supply. • TP3: 6,760–6,770 (weekly cap). Notes: If the 8:30 print gaps price through TP1 immediately, manage fills but still honor runner plan; no trailing before TP2 per protocol. ========== London session game plan (02:00–05:00 ET) Base case: Range 6,678–6,700 with liquidity sweeps. Reclaim of 6,700 during London often fades back into the range; prefer patience for NY AM. Alternative: London sell program to 6,66x–6,64x → if quick reclaim above 6,652, that’s the Tier-2 bounce that feeds the NY long setup. Bear path: Acceptance <6,640 in London → prepare for a trend-day lower toward 6,619 unless NY reverses on data.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
SPY S&P 500 etf Oversold on the RSI ! 2025 Price Target ! The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is flashing a major buy signal, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sitting at 28.33 — firmly in oversold territory. Historically, every time SPY has entered oversold levels on the RSI, institutional buyers have stepped in aggressively, driving sharp rebounds in the following weeks and months. The last time SPY dipped below the 30 RSI threshold was during market pullbacks in 2022 and 2023 — both of which were followed by significant rallies as institutions capitalized on discounted valuations. The current setup is no different. With earnings growth stabilizing, inflation cooling, and the Federal Reserve signaling a potential shift toward rate cuts in the second half of the year, the backdrop for a recovery is aligning perfectly. Technically, SPY is also approaching key support levels that have held strong in past market corrections. The combination of an oversold RSI and strong institutional appetite at these levels creates a compelling case for a bounce. My price target for SPY by year-end is $640, representing over 15% upside from current levels. With sentiment stretched to the downside and technical indicators flashing green, SPY looks primed for a sharp and sustained rebound. Now could be the perfect time to position for the next leg higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
2
Gold’s Decade Shines Less Brightly for Stocks: The New Rational Gold’s Decade Shines Less Brightly for Stocks: The New Rationale for the King Metal For over a decade, the narrative surrounding gold was one of stark contrast to the equity markets. As stock indices, powered by tech innovation and ultra-low interest rates, embarked on a historic bull run, gold was often relegated to the sidelines—a relic for the fearful, an underperforming asset in a world chasing yield. The 2010s were, without question, the decade of the stock market. Gold’s shine, by comparison, seemed dull. But a perceptible shift is underway. The latest rally in gold, which has seen it scale unprecedented nominal heights, is not the frantic, fear-driven surge of past crises. Instead, it appears to be driven by a more sober, strategic, and perhaps more durable force: the rational calculations of central banks and a fundamental rewiring of the global financial architecture. This new rationale suggests that gold’s resurgence may not spell immediate doom for stocks, as traditional wisdom would hold, but rather reflects a new, more complex macroeconomic reality where the two can coexist, albeit with gold casting a long, less brilliant shadow over the equity landscape. The Ghost of Gold Rallies Past: A Tale of Fear and Froth To understand the significance of the current rally, one must first revisit the drivers of previous gold booms. Historically, gold’s major upward moves were tightly correlated with periods of acute stress and negative real interest rates. The post-2008 financial crisis surge, which took gold from around $800 an ounce in 2008 to over $1,900 in 2011, was a classic "fear trade." The world was confronting a systemic banking collapse, unprecedented monetary experimentation in the form of Quantitative Easing (QE), and rampant fears of runaway inflation and currency debasement. Gold was the safe haven, the hedge against a collapsing system. Similarly, the spike in mid-2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, was a panic-driven flight to safety as global economies screeched to a halt. These rallies shared common characteristics: they were often sharp, volatile, and ultimately prone to significant retracements. When the immediate crisis abated—when inflation failed to materialize post-2008, or when fiscal and monetary stimulus ignited a V-shaped stock market recovery in 2020—the rationale for holding a non-yielding asset weakened. Money flowed back into risk assets like stocks. Gold’s role was binary: it was the asset for when things were falling apart. In a functioning, risk-on market, it had little place. This created the perception of an inverse relationship. A strong gold price was a signal of market distress, and thus, bad for stocks. But this decade is different. The New Architects: Central Banks and Strategic Repatriation The most profound change in the gold market has been the transformation of its largest and most influential buyers: central banks. For years, the narrative was that developed Western central banks, holders of the world’s primary reserve currencies, were gradually diversifying away from gold. The modern financial system, built on the U.S. dollar, Treasury bonds, and other interest-bearing instruments, was deemed superior. That assumption has been decisively overturned. Since around 2010, but accelerating dramatically in recent years, central banks—particularly those in emerging economies—have become net purchasers of gold on a massive and sustained scale. The World Gold Council reports that central banks have been adding to their reserves for over a decade, with annual purchases hitting multi-decade records. This buying is not driven by panic. It is a calculated, long-term strategic move rooted in three key rationales: 1. De-dollarization and Geopolitical Hedging: The weaponization of the U.S. dollar through sanctions, particularly against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, served as a wake-up call for nations not squarely in the U.S. geopolitical orbit. Holding vast reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds suddenly carried a new risk: they could be frozen or seized. Gold, by contrast, is a sovereign asset. It can be held within a nation’s own vaults, is nobody’s liability, and is beyond the reach of any other country’s financial system. For China, Russia, India, Turkey, and many nations in the Global South, accumulating gold is a strategic imperative to reduce dependency on the dollar and insulate their economies from geopolitical friction. 2. Diversification Against Fiscal Profligacy: Even for allies of the U.S., the sheer scale of U.S. government debt is a growing concern. With debt-to-GDP ratios at record levels in many developed nations and little political will to address them, the long-term value of fiat currencies is being questioned. Central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a perennial hedge against the fiscal and monetary policies of their allies—a form of insurance against the potential devaluation of the very government bonds that form the backbone of their reserves. 3. A Return to a Multi-Polar Financial World: The post-Bretton Woods era has been dominated by the U.S. dollar. There are increasing signs that the world is shifting towards a multi-polar system, with the euro, Chinese yuan, and possibly other currencies playing larger roles. In such a transitional period, gold’s historical role as a neutral, trusted store of value becomes immensely attractive. It is the one asset that is not tied to the economic fortunes or policies of a single nation. This central bank demand provides a powerful, structural floor under the gold price. It is consistent, price-insensitive buying (they are not chasing momentum but executing a strategy) that is largely divorced from the short-term sentiment swings of the stock market. This is the "more rational calculation" that makes the current rally fundamentally different and potentially longer-lasting. The Interest Rate Conundrum: Gold’s Old Nemesis Loses Its Bite For years, the primary argument against gold was simple: it offers no yield. In a world of rising interest rates, where investors can earn a attractive, risk-free return on cash or government bonds, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes prohibitive. The theory held that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking cycle from 2022 onward would crush the gold price. It didn’t. Gold not only weathered the storm but continued its ascent. This paradox reveals another layer of the new rationale. While nominal rates rose, real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) have been more ambiguous. Periods of high inflation meant that even with higher rates, the real return on cash and bonds was often negative or minimal. In such an environment, gold, as a traditional inflation hedge, retains its appeal. More importantly, the market’s focus has shifted from the level of rates to their trajectory. There is a growing belief that the era of structurally higher interest rates is unsustainable, given the colossal levels of global debt. Servicing this debt becomes exponentially more difficult as rates rise. Therefore, many market participants are betting that the current rate cycle represents a peak, and that central banks will be forced to cut rates sooner rather than later, regardless of the inflation fight. Gold performs well in a environment of falling rates, and this anticipation is being priced in now. Furthermore, high rates have begun to expose fragilities in the system, from regional banking crises in the U.S. to debt distress in emerging markets. In this sense, high rates haven't killed gold’s appeal; they have reinforced its role as a hedge against the consequences of high rates—namely, financial instability. A Less Bright Shine for Stocks: Coexistence in a New Reality So, what does this new, rationally-driven gold bull market mean for stocks? The relationship is no longer a simple inverse correlation. It is more nuanced, suggesting a future of coexistence rather than direct competition, but one where gold’s strength signals underlying headwinds that will dim the stellar returns equities enjoyed in the previous decade. 1. The End of the "Free Money" Era: The 2010s were built on a foundation of zero interest rates and quantitative easing. This environment was nirvana for growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector, as future earnings were discounted at very low rates, justifying sky-high valuations. The new macroeconomic order—one of higher structural inflation, larger government debt, and geopolitical fragmentation—is inherently less favorable to such valuation models. Gold’s strength is a symptom of this new order. It doesn’t mean stocks will collapse, but it does suggest that the era of effortless, broad-based double-digit annual returns is likely over. Returns will be harder won, more selective, and more volatile. 2. A Hedge Within a Portfolio, Not a Replacement: Investors are now likely to view gold not as a binary alternative to stocks, but as a critical component of a diversified portfolio. In a world of heightened geopolitical risk and uncertain monetary policy, holding a portion in gold provides stability. This means fund flows are not a simple zero-sum game between the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Institutions and individuals may increase allocations to both, using gold to mitigate the specific risks that now loom over the equity landscape. 3. Sectoral Winners and Losers: A strong gold price is a direct positive for gold mining stocks, a sector that has been largely neglected for years. This could lead to a resurgence in this niche part of the market. Conversely, the factors driving gold—higher inflation and rates—are headwinds for long-duration assets like high-flying tech stocks. The outperformance may shift towards value-oriented sectors, commodities, and industries with strong pricing power and tangible assets. The stock market’s shine may dim overall, but it will create bright spots in new areas. 4. The Signal of Sustained Uncertainty: Ultimately, a gold market driven by central bank de-dollarization and fiscal concerns is a barometer of persistent, low-grade global uncertainty. This is not the acute panic of 2008, but a chronic condition of fragmentation and distrust. Such an environment is not conducive to the explosive, confidence-driven growth that stock markets thrive on. It favors caution, resilience, and tangible value over speculative growth. Gold’s steady ascent is the clearest signal of this psychological shift. Conclusion: A Duller but More Enduring Glow The gold rally of the 2020s is not a siren call of an imminent market crash. It is the quiet, determined accumulation of a strategic asset by the world’s most powerful financial institutions. It is a vote of no confidence in the unfettered dominance of the current financial order and a bet on a more fragmented, uncertain future. For stock market investors, this does not necessarily portend a bear market. Instead, it heralds a more challenging environment where the tailwinds of globalization and cheap money have reversed. The dazzling shine of the stock market’s previous decade is likely to be replaced by a duller, more realistic glow. Returns will be more modest, risks more pronounced, and the need for prudent diversification more critical than ever. In this new era, gold and stocks will learn to coexist. The king of metals is no longer just a refuge for the fearful; it has become a strategic holding for the rational. Its decade may not shine with the same speculative brilliance as the stock market’s last bull run, but its light may well prove to be more enduring, illuminating a path through a landscape of greater complexity and risk. The lesson for investors is clear: the old rules are changing, and in this new game, gold holds a very strong hand.
SP:SPXLong
by bryandowningqln
ES (E-mini S&P 500) — Plan for Wed Sep 24Fundamentals (tomorrow, ET) 04:00 Germany IFO Business Climate (often moves European risk tone during London). 10:00 U.S. New Home Sales (Aug) — official Census schedule lists New Residential Sales at 10:00 a.m.. 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard time each Wed). 13:00 U.S. 5-Year Note auction (can nudge yields/indices). Context: Yesterday’s U.S. flash PMIs showed slower but still-expanding activity (Composite 53.6 vs 54.6 Aug). Bias(HTF→LTF) HTF: Uptrend but near prior highs; Tuesday printed a lower-timeframe selloff into ~6,701–6,705 (confluence with D1 1.272 ≈ 6,705). Base case into London: Two-way trade inside 6,701–6,744–6,756 triad while Europe digests IFO. Two paths for NY: Acceptance ↑ above 6,756.5 → squeeze the weak-highs toward 6,765–6,770, then 6,798–6,800 (D1 1.618). Acceptance ↓ below 6,701–6,705 → trend rotation toward 6,690s → 6,680s (next liquidity shelves). London session game plan If Europe pushes up early: Watch 6,744. Failure there → rotate back to 6,711–6,718; clean reclaim → sets NY for a 6,756 test. If Europe bleeds down: Look for sweep & hold behavior at 6,701–6,705; loss of that area on 15m body-through tends to trend extend into the 6,69x/6,68x shelves before NY AM. NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) and NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) → full size, run the exact confirmations and targets I gave. A++ Acceptance LONG — above 6,756.5 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close above 6,756.5 (acceptance). • 5m pullback holds ≥ 6,754–6,756 and re-closes up. • 1m HL entry on first clean re-trigger. Entry: 6,756–6,758 on the retest (or continuation >6,760 after 5m re-close). Hard SL: below the 15m trigger wick or < 6,744 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is lower). Targets: TP1 6,765–6,770, TP2 6,798–6,800, TP3 6,901. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level. Invalidation: 15m close back inside < 6,756 after entry that fails the 5m hold → cancel and reassess. ============= A++ Acceptance SHORT — below 6,701–6,705 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close below 6,701 (body-through the band). • 5m LH + re-close down on the retest of 6,701–6,705. • 1m LH entry on first pullback failure. Entry: 6,699–6,703 on the retest. Hard SL: above the 15m trigger wick or > 6,705 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is higher). Targets: TP1 6,690–6,692, TP2 6,680–6,685, TP3 trail if trend accelerates. Management: Same rules as Setup #1 (TP1 70% + runner to BE; 45–60m time-stop; max 2 attempts). Invalidation: Reclaim on 15m back above 6,705 that holds → cancel the short. ⸻ Risk & timing notes • 10:00 New Home Sales and 10:30 EIA can cause abrupt spikes; favor entries after the first post-data 5m bar closes unless already in with cushion. • 13:00 5-Year auction can alter yield curve into the NY PM window; manage runners.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
4
FOMC 100% Breakout (Check) - Key Resistance and 6500 Gamma PinFOMC was in fact a NOISE candle So I measured the candle, projected a 100% breakout bullish and bearish Bulls took the bait and ran higher, but still resistance @ 6700 seen today and hopefully a short-term window to see a bit of a slide lower into some technical levels EMA support levels -watching the 21 period daily EMA -watching the 50 period daily EMA 6550 FOMC candle lows from last week 6500 Gamma Pin with JP Morgan's quarterly collar trade This is the first day in several weeks where I've seen some actual follow through in negative gamma option flows If futures grinds prices lower, the cascade may take hold and we can see a 100-200 point selloff quickly in the S&P I still like scooping up premium and buying the dips, but hopefully at more attractive levels like 4-5% lower or even 8-10% lower Let's see how it plays out. I'll be in the markets grinding per usual. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS BACK TO 200 Why Texas Instruments (TXN) Could Rebound to $200 by 2026: Semiconductor Revival TXN's trading at ~$182 today (Sep 23, 2025), down ~20% from its $230 peak amid industrial softness and China tariffs, but with EPS surging 20%+ and analog demand roaring back, $200 (10% upside) is a slam-dunk floor by EOY 2026. Here's the bull reload:Revenue Ramp & Analog Dominance: Q2 '25 revenue +16% YoY to $4.4B, with industrial up 9% sequentially. Analysts eye $17.5B in '26 (9% YoY growth from $16B '25), fueled by 300mm wafer ramps and auto/enterprise recovery—hitting 50%+ gross margins for $200 valuation at 25x sales. 3 sources EPS Explosion: Consensus EPS jumps to $6.44 in '26 (20% from $5.35 '25), undervalued at 28x forward P/E vs. 35x historical avg. At norm multiple, that's $226—clearing $200 easy, per WallStreetZen's $208.67 base case. 2 sources CapEx Efficiency & Cash Flow Surge: $5B '25 spend drops to $2-5B '26 on optimized 1.2x capex/revenue, unlocking $8-12B free cash flow. Dividend hiked 4% to $1.42/share, with buybacks hedging volatility—StockScan's $248 avg '26 seals the rebound. 3 sources Analyst Consensus Over $200: 25-51 firms avg $212-218 PT (Buy rating, high $298), with TipRanks at $212.83 on AI/data center tailwinds (13% earnings CAGR). Lows $125, but bulls dominate post-Q3 guidance.
NASDAQ:TXNLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
VISA BACK TO 370 BY 2026 Why Visa (V) Could Hit $370 by 2026: Payments Powerhouse Bull Case Visa’s trading at ~$344 today (Sep 23, 2025), up 15% YTD on digital payments surge, but with EPS climbing 12%+ and global transaction volumes booming, $370 (8% upside) by EOY 2026 is a low-bar target for this steady climber. Here’s the roadmap:Revenue & Payments Growth: Q3 '25 cross-border volume +16% YoY, driving $39B TTM revenue (11% growth). Analysts project 9.4% YoY to $43B+ in FY26 on e-comm (25% of sales) and emerging markets expansion, per Simply Wall St—fueling $370 at 25x forward sales. 2 sources EPS Acceleration: Consensus EPS hits $10.50 in FY26 (up 12% from $9.37 '25), trading at 28x forward P/E—below historical 32x avg. At norm multiple, that's $336 base; add 11.2% earnings growth for $370 pop, aligning with LiteFinance's $370–$380 range. 2 sources Innovation Tailwinds: Visa Direct + fintech ties (e.g., Ample Earth climate collab) boost B2B volumes 20%+, hedging crypto/reg risks. Tokenization and AI fraud tech scale margins to 67%+, per management. Analyst Consensus Backs It: 27–51 firms avg $380–$396 PT (Strong Buy, high $430), with StockScan eyeing $351 avg '26 (high $390). Lows at $305, but bulls dominate on 10%+ CAGR.
NYSE:VLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
TSSI BACK TO 28 BY 2026 Why TSS, Inc. (TSSI) Could Rocket Back to $28 by 2026: AI-Driven Bull Case TSSI’s trading at $18.38 today (Sep 23, 2025, per the finance card above), down from its $31.94 year-high, but with explosive AI infrastructure demand and a Dell partnership, $28 (52% upside) by EOY 2026 is in sight. Here’s the catalyst-fueled case:AI Boom & Dell Contract: Q2 '25 revenue soared 520% YoY to $62.8M, driven by a multi-year Dell deal for AI server racks. Procurement segment (80%+ revenue) eyes $200M+ in '26, with Georgetown facility scaling output. Analysts project 50% YoY growth to $220M+, pushing EPS to $0.15–$0.20. Analyst Upgrades & Targets: Roth MKM and Singular rate "Buy" (Sep '25), with consensus PT $16.50–$22 (20–60% upside). Walletinvestor forecasts $20.40 by Jun '26, but Reddit bulls and Intellectia eye $30–$81 on 2x sales valuation, hitting $28 easily. Technical Breakout: The finance card above shows TSSI above its 200-day MA ($13–$14 range), with RSI (35.28) neutral, poised for a momentum flip. Weekly MACD signals bullish crossover, and $18 support holds firm. Break above $20 resistance targets $28, per TradingView’s setup. Market Tailwinds: $1T AI/data center market by 2030 fuels TSSI’s niche in systems integration. $20M debt financing (Jul '25) funds capacity, with NASDAQ uplisting boosting liquidity. Volatility (13.35%, beta 4.28) risks dips, but $150M shelf offering signals growth bets.
NASDAQ:TSSILong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL