SANTA RALLY OR BLACK FRIDAY ..... ZOOMThis is a zoom into the 1hour detail up til the predicted November low (dead cat bounce zone)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SANTA RALLY OR BLACK FRIDAY ...... THOUGHTS?This is this weekend's whiteboard projections for the next 6months.
This shows a slight reclaim this week but a continuation of lower highs and lower lows.
Then a drop to the bottom of the narrower channel when China tariffs & rare earth restrictions are reflected in earnings guidance as Mag7 reports Q3 results.
Dead cat bounce into Thanksgiving after the market pullback on guidance.
Then only a Trump tweet can give us a Santa Rally, otherwise the other shoe falls and we get a Black Friday/Monday after Thanksgiving.
Followed by a controlled selloff through Q4/Q1 earnings & poor guidance.
Chart forecasts finding a bottom in April 2026.
Please share your charts/forecasts into April 2026. (I am pretty new to this if you can't tell by my charts)
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX
MAG 7 | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT GOOGL
Mr. Wyckoff Is That You? (Pt II) & Pi Cycle Top Trendline on BTCHey Trading Fam,
As the Donald keeps the market gambling and scrambling, I want to step away from the headlines a bit and take a closer look at what our charts might be suggesting. Admittedly, the bias indicated may be somewhat contrarian at the moment. If you're not into that, this video is probably not for you.
It feels like an echo chamber out there with most analysts. Everyone keeps yelling, "Buy the dip! Buy the dip!" But what about a more cautious approach? Maybe it was time to sell the top and preserve your cash? I don't know. Just throwing it out there.
As many of you are aware, we've reached my third and final target on the SPY. I've been talking about 670-700 on the SPY for a couple of years now. It's been hit, and personally (though I am cautiously still trading publicly), I've exited. My goal is to preserve my cash. Maybe I do this through precious metals? Haven't decided yet. But I am happy with the profit I've made to this point and will probably not test fate too much further.
As for crypto, old Bitcoin usually follows our stock market. And we have tracked the SPY for that part. If the market does, in fact, pull back further, I would expect Bitcoin and all of crypto to follow.
I know, I know. But what about that altcoin season? I don't know guys. That may not actually start until next year. I'm not saying this will be the case for sure. But more and more, it sure is looking that way.
Enjoy the vid,
✌️Stew
Watch out for 3 drives patternWith the last two retracements to the 0.618 and a perfect touch of the 0.272, we currently have an ideal setup for a potential three drives pattern.
If it hits the final 0.272, it will coincide with CME_MINI:ES1! reaching new all-time highs before reversing for a possible 150-point drop.
Let's see how it evolves.
SPX is weakening at a very dangerous price level🔱 SPX is at a very dangerous price level ⚠️
...right at the Upper Median Line Parallel.
💰 If this market turns, the Centerline becomes the next target.
The 0-5 Count is also a good indication when prices start to turn at these extreme levels.
⚠️ Stay sharp — momentum is fading.
I wish you all a relaxing weekend.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups For Fri (Oct 17)MACRO SCHEDULE (ET) — confirmed not impacted by shutdown
• NY AM: No confirmed 8:30 ET U.S. government releases (data blackout continues).
• 16:15 — Fed H.8 (weekly bank data) — after cash close; limited intraday impact.
BIAS:
• Short-term momentum is down; price sits in the lower half of this week’s range.
• Expect a liquidity probe lower in London, then a bounce attempt into NY AM if key demand holds.
SETUPS — Level-KZ Protocol (15m→5m→1m)
Tier-1 (A++) — Continuation SHORT from R1/R2
Trigger: 15m rejection back below 6,663–6,670 ➜ 5m re-close below with LH ➜ 1m first pullback fails.
Entry: 6,658–6,662.
SL: Above 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,604 (≥2.0R gate). TP2: 6,564. TP3: 6,520.
Tier-1 (A++) — Acceptance SHORT below S1
Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,642 ➜ 5m pullback holds below ➜ 1m LH entry.
Entry: 6,638–6,641.
SL: Above 6,646 +0.25–0.50.
Targets: TP1 6,604; TP2 6,564; TP3 6,520. Management as above.
Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-Reclaim LONG at S2
Trigger: Fast sweep below 6,604 with immediate 15m reclaim ➜ 5m hold/re-close above ➜ 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,605–6,609.
SL: 6,596–6,598 (15m wick low −0.25–0.50).
TP1: 6,663; TP2: 6,690–6,700. Size ¾.
Tier-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion LONG at S3
Trigger: Flush into 6,564 ±3 with capitulation wick and 15m momentum pivot ➜ 5m HL ➜ 1m trigger.
SL: Below 6,556–6,558.
TP1: 6,604; TP2: 6,663. Size ½.
INVALIDATION:
• Invalidate long bias if 15m accepts below 6,564 (two 15m bodies or one decisive close ≥1.5pt).
• Invalidate short bias if 15m accepts above 6,718 and holds.
• Max 2 attempts per level per session; stop trading at −2R net or after +3R net.
NEWS / HEADLINE NOTES
With government data paused, price will be more technically driven. Fed headlines can spark brief moves; prioritize level reactions over narrative.
Earnings/gamma flows may add noise near R1 (6,663–6,670) and R2 (6,710–6,718).
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Data blackout risk: Friday was set for key housing and production reports — but the ongoing shutdown means most prints (Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Import Prices) may not be released.
📉 Macro vacuum: With no confirmed data, traders lean on positioning and bond moves to gauge growth sentiment into the weekend.
💬 Earnings carry the weight: Corporate results take the spotlight as macro inputs dry up.
💻 Technical tone: AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ watchlist rotation continues — watch volatility pockets if liquidity fades mid-session.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Sept) — scheduled but may not print
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Sept) — scheduled release
⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept) — scheduled but may not print
⚠️ Note: Friday wraps a quiet macro week dominated by missing data and Fed commentary. Expect a headline-driven close with limited participation ahead of weekend risk.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #housing #IndustrialProduction #ImportPrices #Fed #bonds #economy #shutdown #yields #equities
Regional Banking Crisis 2.0? KRE fell over 6% today due to mounting concerns about sour loans and weakening credit quality across regional banks.
Many regional bank earnings reactions are not supporting positive price action.
Loan Quality Fears: Wall Street is increasingly worried about deteriorating credit conditions in regional banks’ loan portfolios. Reports suggest rising delinquencies and potential defaults, especially in commercial real estate and small business lending.
Jefferies & Zions Drag: Shares of Jefferies and Zions Bancorporation were among the hardest hit, amplifying pressure on the ETF. Zions, in particular, saw double-digit losses amid speculation about its exposure to risky assets.
Tariff-Driven Recession Fears: Broader macro concerns, including recession risks tied to recent tariff policies, are weighing on bank stocks. Tariffs are seen as “unconditionally bad” for financials due to their impact on growth and lending demand.
$UPS Stock Analysis and Trading StrategyOverview of UPS Price Movements
UPS reached an all-time high (ATH) of $198.25, with a 52-week high at $145.01 and a 52-week low at $82.00. The stock experienced a significant decline, falling more than 58% from its ATH and over 43% from its 52-week high. After monitoring the company’s steady downward trend for several years, a sharp drop following the latest earnings report renewed interest in its performance.
Initial Entry and Position Management
Interest in a long position was sparked when the 50-day moving average (DMA) caught up with the stock’s price. On October 3rd, a half-sized position was initiated after observing three consecutive up days, which suggested a potential bottom. This move was confirmed as the price closed above both the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50 DMA. The stop-loss was set just below the recent lowest low of $82.00.
Current Trade Status and Analysis
The trade remains active, although currently underwater, as the original stop-loss has not been triggered. The double bottom theory now guides the position, since the low on October 14th also touched the $82.00 level and rebounded. Presently, the price is slightly below my buy point but continues to test the 50 DMA, which has now leveled out.
Future Trading Strategy
The plan is to hold the position until either a breakout above the blue resistance area occurs—at which point the position would be increased in anticipation of a stage 2 breakout—or until the price falls below $82.00, activating the stop-loss. If not currently in this trade, the preferred approach would be to wait for the stock to close above the 50 DMA again or for a breakout above the upper horizontal resistance area before entering.
Disclaimer
Readers are encouraged to conduct their own analysis and adhere to personal trading rules. Investing always involves risk, so it is crucial to make informed decisions with your own capital.
TESLA EARNINGS OCT 16 2025Price action for Tesla is here. I have clearly explained my plan on how to trade tesla considering every factor in market.
STAY AWAY FROM TRADING TESLA
NOTE: OPTION WILL BURN YOUR CAPITAL
$ETSY: Ready for Stage 2 Breakout?Technical Analysis
ETSY appears to be developing two significant technical patterns. The first is a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), which often signals a potential breakout as volatility diminishes and price tightens. The second pattern is a Base on Base formation, suggesting a period of consolidation that can precede strong upward movement. Additionally, the stock is currently trading at or above all major moving averages, further supporting a bullish technical outlook.
Fundamental Highlights
• NYSE Transition: On September 29, 2025, Etsy announced its intention to move its stock listing to the New York Stock Exchange, with the transition becoming effective on October 13, 2025. CEO Josh Silverman explained that this move aims to enhance transparency and attract a wider range of institutional investors.
• OpenAI Partnership: Also on September 29, Etsy revealed a new partnership with OpenAI. This collaboration will power AI-driven shopping experiences, including the integration of advanced product discovery tools into mobile platforms and enabling visual search capabilities to help shoppers find similar items on Etsy.
• Executive Reorganization: On September 4, 2025, Etsy announced changes in its executive team, with Rafe Colburn being promoted to Chief Product and Technology Officer.
Trading Considerations
An alert is set at $73.50, anticipating an early entry if the stock breaks above the Flat Base pattern identified on the chart. This level may indicate the start of a new upward trend.
Disclaimer
Readers are encouraged to conduct their own analysis and follow personal trading rules. Investing always carries risk, so it is important to make informed decisions using your own capital.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses - Key Levels, Setups for Thu (Oct 16)Kill-zones: London 02:00–05:00 · NY AM 09:30–11:00 · NY PM 13:30–16:00
The price is currently capped under yesterday’s VAH/PDH level. Bulls need to maintain levels above that zone to trigger the next upward movement. If we drop below, the previous POC/VAL will likely pull prices back in.
Premise
• Government 08:30 releases are unlikely; headline risk is lighter into the open.
• Primary scheduled risk is Fed Gov. Barr around 09:00 ET.
• Expect a cleaner auction: use our Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m sequence and prioritize first touches.
Tier-1 (A++) setups — Level-KZ Protocol
1. Short the cap at R2 (6,748.5–6,766.8)
Trigger: 15m rejection back inside → 5m re-close under → 1m LH pullback entry.
Stop: Above the 15m wick (+0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,695.5; TP3 6,651.0.
Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner to BE; seek TP2–TP3 during NY AM.
2. Break-and-hold long above PDH 6,766.8
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,766.8 → 5m pullback holds → 1m HL entry.
Stop: Below trigger wick (−0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,790–6,805; TP2 6,828–6,832; TP3 6,872–6,893.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,748.5.
Tier-2 / Tier-3 bounce plays (sized ¾ and ½)
Quick-reclaim bounce at S2/S3 (6,695–6,683): Fast sweep → instant reclaim on 5m → 1m HL entry.
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,741.0; TP3 6,766.8.
Hard stop: 15m wick through S3 (≤0.50). Gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
Day 50 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Tornado Volatility ModeDay 50 — the market still feels insane after Friday’s 3× ATR move.
Every tick feels like standing in a tornado — calm for a second, then chaos.
I played defense, traded light, and survived with + $122.
I expected things to settle by mid-week, but it’s clear we’re still in high-vol mode. I’m considering widening my stop-losses to 20 points to handle these swings.
Lesson & Mindset
The key takeaway today: not every session is about profit. Sometimes the win is walking away disciplined, keeping your account alive, and sticking to the plan.
Fifty days in, that’s the real progress — showing up, no matter what.
News & Levels
Headline: Gold hit a record high above $4,200 — a reminder that fear and liquidity are still rotating fast.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6730 bullish, below 6665 bearish.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Big macro day — if it happens: Retail Sales & PPI headline the morning, but both reports may be delayed under the ongoing shutdown. Markets will trade on expectation and reaction instead of prints.
📈 Consumer + price pulse: These two data points were expected to test the “soft-landing” narrative — inflation vs. spending resilience.
💬 Fed-speak heavy: Barkin, Waller, Bowman, and Miran dominate the lineup; tone on inflation stickiness may shape yields.
🏠 Housing check: Homebuilder Confidence offers a softer read on the real-economy drag from higher mortgage rates.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:00 AM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) remarks
⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Sept) & PPI (Sept) — scheduled but may not print
⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) — scheduled release
⏰ 9:00 AM — Stephen Miran & Christopher Waller (Fed Govs) speeches
⏰ 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) remarks + Homebuilder Confidence (Oct)
⏰ 12:45 PM / 4:30 PM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) speeches
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #RetailSales #PPI #Fed #Barkin #Waller #Bowman #Miran #inflation #bonds #shutdown #economy #yields #housing
SPY | Things Could Get Ugly | ShortSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
forecast for how it should be forming like 12/6 to 2/19 topping My view of how it should form it this wave . The fear index is in a place bottoms form so what I think is about to happen
Weekly LIQUIDITY CYCLES under Elliot WAVE The post posted is my thesis for Risk as to flow of money under my theory of Velocity of money flow !
FINAL WAVE IN LIQUIDITY CYCLE WORLD WIDE Chart posted of High yield ETF is my thesis as to the liquidity cycle in the risk assets I will post the weekly in a few mins Then the wheels come off the bus .
$FLY Firefly Stock Position Update and AnalysisOverview of Recent Positioning in Firefly ( NASDAQ:FLY )
On October 6th, I initiated a position in Firefly stock, purchasing a quarter-size allocation following the company's announcement of a deal to acquire SciTec, a firm specializing in military technology solutions. This acquisition was highlighted by Firefly CEO Jason Kim, who stated, "The acquisition of SciTec enhances our ability to support a growing number of defense missions and provides us with a significant operational advantage. SciTec's mission-proven software and big data processing capabilities provide warfighters with rapid, accurate information to enable informed decisions."
Stock Performance and Position Adjustment
After the acquisition news, Firefly's shares climbed 6.3% on Monday, October 6th closing at $29.09, with my entry price at $28.75. The stock continued to show strength, rallying again on October 8th. In response to this price action, I increased my stake by adding another quarter-size position, bringing my total investment to a half-size allocation.
Technical Analysis and Trading Plan
Since increasing my position, Firefly stock has traded sideways, which I interpret as a base-building phase. In today’s premarket trading, the price has moved just above what appears to be a key area of resistance, marked by a blue horizontal line on the 65-minute chart. Looking ahead, there is another potential resistance level at the previous high’s AVWAP (Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price).
I have set an alert on the AVWAP level. If the stock price breaks above this point, I plan to increase my allocation to a full-size position.
Trading Principles
As always, I encourage readers to analyze this idea independently and adhere to their personal trading rules. Please remember that any investment involves risk, and it is essential to make informed decisions with your own capital.
QQQ : Stay heavy on positionsQQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)
Entering a risk-on, high-volatility zone.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
SPY : Stay heavy on positionsSPY : Stay heavy on positions (2x leverage)
Entering a risk-on, high-volatility zone.
In stay light on positions zones, I hold SPY(+QQQ) and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of SSO(+QLD) and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Growth pulse check: The Empire State Manufacturing Survey kicks off the day — a real-time test of factory sentiment post-summer slowdown.
📘 Fed Beige Book afternoon drop: Key read on regional activity and inflation anecdotes — markets often reposition after release.
💬 Fed parade continues: Bostic, Miran, and Waller keep rate-cut expectations in focus ahead of Thursday’s data risk.
⚠️ Shutdown overhang: Broader data (CPI/PPI/Retail) still paused — traders key off qualitative signals like Beige Book tone.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)
⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book
⚠️ Note: Shutdown continues to delay most federal data releases. Beige Book offers the only official economic snapshot this week — high read-through for inflation, wages, and business conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #BeigeBook #EmpireState #Waller #Bostic #Miran #bonds #yields #inflation #shutdown #economy
