ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zone, Setups for Fri (Dec 5th)Market Overview
The daily trend remains firmly upward, with prices pressing against the November swing-high band, characterized by a sequence of higher lows and a gradual ascent toward previous peaks. Momentum indicators on both the daily and 4-hour charts are on the rise, yet they have not entered extreme levels, suggesting a likelihood of continued upward movement into the upper premium band rather than an imminent substantial reversal.
On the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) has been consolidating in a narrow range, roughly between 6835 and 6880, as it builds energy just below the prior high. This range coincides with the 1.272 to 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone, located around 6895 to 6917. Given this setup, the outlook for tomorrow appears slightly bullish, provided the price remains above the mid-range support levels.
Market Brief: Key Developments for December 5, 2025
As we approach the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year scheduled for December 9 -10, market participants are increasingly pricing in a substantial likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, along with further easing anticipated in the coming year.
For tomorrow, however, it’s important to note that the widely followed November employment situation report (including Non-farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate) has been officially postponed to December 16 due to the ongoing government shutdown. While some generic calendars may still reflect the original December 5 date for the payroll figures, this information has become outdated. At this time, it appears unlikely that any partial wage data will be released in lieu of the full report.
Nevertheless, many calendars are still marking U.S. hourly earnings and related labor indicators for the morning session. Expectations are set for hourly earnings, nonfarm payrolls, and unemployment rate placeholders around 8:30 AM ET, alongside the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations reports at 10:00 AM ET.
In practical terms, traders should expect regular liquidity levels in Asian and London markets. However, be prepared for potential volatility spikes around the 10:00 AM ET release of the U. Michigan data, especially if any unexpected headlines arise concerning the delayed labor report.
Market Outlook: Overnight Trends into New York Trading Session
As we head into the New York trading session, the key focus remains on the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). The base case scenario suggests that as long as ES maintains support above the significant range of 6854 to 6858 - often referred to as S2 - during any dips seen in the Asian and London sessions, we can anticipate a gradual upward movement. This trajectory would likely involve repeated testing of resistance levels around 6875 to 6880 (R1). Should we witness consistent hourly closes that approach this resistance with only modest pullbacks toward 6860, the likelihood of a breakout toward the premium zone of 6895 to 6910 increases, potentially occurring before or during the New York session.
On the other hand, the alternative scenario would unfold if the market decisively breaks below S2, resulting in a series of hourly closes beneath 6854. Such a development would signal a shift in sentiment and a potential rotation toward support levels S3 and S4, which target 6835. This would likely create a mean-reversion environment, with trading in New York focused more on the lower half of the 6835 to 6880 range rather than pushing for a breakout above resistance. Investors should tread carefully as these scenarios develop.
A++ setup 1 - Long breakout continuation above 6875
Bias: continuation long, only if we see real acceptance above R1.
Trigger conditions:
15m candle closes with a solid body above 6880, turning the 6875 - 6880 band from
Entry zone: 6878 - 6882 on the first 1m/5m higher low after that pullback holds.
Initial stop: 6869, tucked below the 6870 intraday pivot and just under the reclaimed band.
• TP1: 6904 - 6908, inside the 6895 - 6910 premium band, giving you roughly 2R or better if you are filled near the middle of the entry band and respect the tight stop.
• TP2: 6915 - 6918, near the 1.618 extension.
A++ setup 2 - Short reversal from failed break 6895 - 6910
Bias: high-quality fade only if the market runs stops into the premium band and then traps longs.
Entry zone: 6890 - 6896 on a retest of 6895 from below after that rejection is confirmed.
Initial stop: 6908, above the rejection high and inside the upper part of the premium band.
• TP1: 6858, back into the VWAP / prior value area pocket. That gives you roughly 2R or better if you are filled near mid-band with a 10 - 12 point stop.
• TP2: 6843 - 6845, test of NYAM low.
Tomorrow is shaping up to be a pivotal decision point following a robust advance in the market. As long as the support level around 6855 remains intact, any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities, particularly targeting the premium range of 6895 to 6917. However, a decisive rejection from this premium zone, with prices falling back through 6870, may signal an A++ short opportunity, potentially driving prices down toward 6858 and beyond.
Good Luck !!!
