SPY - Potential Head & Shoulders And now we have this exhaustion pattern again. I went back and foruth on this yesterday. But in the final minutes a bought shorts again. The right shoulder can consolidate for a few days and the H&S can still be invalidated but I have this on my bucket list. I can´t sit on the sidelines on this one. If it happens, it will be legendary. With first strong support at 605
Spy500
A Historic Shift in the S&P 500 Is BeginningFriends, in my view, the unstoppable rally in the S&P 500 has finally come to an end. The market has completed a massive five-wave structure with an extended fifth wave — and now we’re witnessing a historic moment as an exceptionally large correction begins.
As always, I’m watching two possible scenarios: the orange path and the purple path. But despite their differences, both point to the same outcome — my target at 5200. And that’s only the first target out of several.
Make sure to follow and subscribe, so you don’t miss the upcoming updates and deeper breakdowns.
This is just my personal market outlook — not financial advice. More updates coming soon.
Nifty, BankNifty & S&P500 Weekly Outlook Nifty closed the week at 25910, posting a strong 418-point gain. Once the index sustained above 25600, it delivered a clean 400-point rally toward 26000, pulled back briefly, and regained strength to close near the highs.
Overall Bias: Mildly Bullish
As long as Nifty holds above 25600, the structure remains constructive.
However, expect volatility near 26000–26400.
📌 Key Levels for Next Week
Support: 25600 / 25400
Resistance: 26050 / 26400
Nifty is likely to stay within 25400–26400 . A breakout on either side can trigger sharp directional moves.
Bullish sector themes: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Metals, Auto — ideal zones for swing traders.
BankNifty Update
BankNifty reclaimed 57900, extended a smooth upside move, hit all three bullish targets, and closed at a fresh all-time high of 58517.
If it sustains above 58615, upside zones open toward:
59267
60087 (Key Fibonacci level)
Continued strength here can act as a strong tailwind for Nifty’s next leg up.
S&P 500 Weekly View
S&P 500 closed flat at 6734, but the weekly structure still favors a bullish W-pattern.
Key Breakout Levels
Above 6869: Targets 6959 → 7000 → 7122
Below 6631: Trend weakens, downside opens toward 6350 / 6225
The index is at a decision point — a breakout or breakdown will set the tone globally.
Final Take
Markets are at crucial levels, and next week will decide who takes control — Bulls or Bears.
Which level do you think breaks first — 26400 or 25400?
Intraday Range Expansion and Potential Repricing on the SPXFollowing a clean sweep of Friday’s high, price delivered a strong displacement to the downside, breaking short-term structure and rebalancing inefficiencies left behind. The subsequent rebound towards the daily open suggests a retracement into a premium area, potentially setting up for continuation lower if rejection holds around that zone.
If buyers fail to sustain price above the daily open, the market could aim for a full range fill back toward the previous low or discount zones below, maintaining the current bearish intraday order flow.
Potential Range Rebalance After Bullish Exhaustion on SP500Based on Candle Range Theory , the recent large bullish range has been followed by a series of smaller bearish candles, showing reduced momentum and potential exhaustion from buyers. Price is currently retracing into the lower range of the previous expansion, indicating that liquidity may be resting below.
If price fails to reclaim the upper range of the previous bullish candle, we could see continuation to the downside as the market seeks equilibrium within or below that expansion range. However, a strong rejection from the lower boundary could confirm range preservation and set up another bullish leg.
In short : the market’s next move depends on whether this retracement turns into a liquidity grab or a deeper correction beneath the prior candle range.
Weekly Market Outlook | Nifty, BankNifty & S&P 500 AnalysisNifty closed the week at 25,795, up 86 points from last week’s close — marking another week of resilience within my projected range of 26,200–25,250.
This week’s candle looks weak and indecisive, forming near the all-time high zone — a potential signal of short-term fatigue. A break below 25,718 could trigger selling pressure toward support zones at 25,450 / 25,350 / 25,300.
However, as long as 25,300 holds, the broader structure remains healthy.
On the flip side, if Nifty sustains above 25,900, bulls may once again attempt to test the all-time high resistance at 26,277.
👉 Expected range for next week: 26,250 – 25,350.
BankNifty Update:
BankNifty delivered a record-breaking all-time high close at 57,699!
If it slips below 57,482, it could correct toward 57,000 / 56,750, which may also drag Nifty slightly lower.
But a sustained move above 57,900 could fuel another rally toward 58,577 (ATH), providing crucial support for Nifty’s next breakout attempt.
S&P 500 (US Markets):
The S&P 500 once again posted a new all-time high weekly close at 6,791, perfectly following last week’s outlook where it cleared 6,715 and achieved both upside targets 6,760 / 6,780.
Next key levels to watch:
Above 6,780 → potential move to 6,930 / 6,959 (important Fibonacci zone)
Below 6,750 → watch for pullback toward 6,689 / 6,666 / 6,650
Investors in US equities can now trail their stop-loss near 6,580 and keep adjusting to protect profits as the trend extends.
🎯 Summary:
Nifty range: 26,250–25,350
BankNifty: All-time high close, watch 57,900 breakout
S&P 500: Bullish momentum intact, eyes on 6,930–6,959
Markets are at crucial inflection levels — next week could decide whether we see fresh breakouts or short-term consolidation.
S&P500 - $8.000 is the ultimate target!🎊S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) continues the bullrun:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, the S&P500 has been rallying +40%. However, this does not mean that the bullrun is over any time soon. Since the S&P500 perfectly respects the rising channel pattern, a move to the upper trendline is the target.
📝Levels to watch:
$8,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Weekly Market Wrap: Nifty Eyes All-Time HighsNifty closed the week at 25,709, gaining 400 points from the previous week’s close — marking another strong performance! It made a high of 25,781 and a low of 25,060.
As I highlighted last week, Nifty was expected to trade within the 25,700–24,850 range — and while it briefly broke out by 80 points, it closed right back within the range, showing controlled optimism.
Technical Outlook:
The monthly charts of both Nifty and Bank Nifty are now showing signs of forming a bullish W-pattern, which typically indicates trend reversal and strength. If Nifty manages to sustain above 25,900, we could see it rally towards its all-time high of 26,277, followed by the important Fibonacci level of 26,492.
On the downside, a pullback towards 25,450–25,500 could offer a great buy-on-dips opportunity for fresh long positions.
Next Week’s Range Expectation:
With a holiday-shortened week ahead (holiday on Wednesday and only a 1-hour trading session on Tuesday), expect Nifty to remain range-bound between 26,200–25,250. A breakout beyond these levels could spark some serious fireworks!
Big Picture View:
I continue to remain optimistic about India’s growth story. Over the coming years, I expect:
Nifty to reach 44,000+
Sensex to touch 1,44,000+
Of course, there will be healthy pullbacks and corrections along the way — offering smart investors a chance to accumulate at better valuations.
💡 Investment Ideas:
To participate in India’s long-term growth journey, consider systematic investments in:
NiftyBees, MidcapBees, SmallCapBees & GoldBees
Also, keep an eye on the Banking, Auto, and Infrastructure sectors — all showing strong bullish setups for the next few weeks.
Global Markets – S&P 500 Update:
The S&P 500 closed at 6,664, up nearly 110 points for the week, forming an inside candle on the weekly chart.
A move above 6,715 can push it towards 6,760 / 6,780 / 6,930 / 6,959 (key resistance levels).
On the downside, 6,555 and 6,384 are crucial supports — as long as 6,384 holds, it remains a buy-on-dips market for me.
Wishing everyone a very Happy & Prosperous Diwali!
May this festival of lights bring you wealth, wisdom, and winning trades!
Warning Signs Flashing: SPY May Plunge After Earnings SeasonAfter the recent rollercoaster in equities and crypto, markets are entering a critical period: earnings season. While the initial rebound after last Friday’s selloff has restored some optimism, the broader picture suggests potential downside for SPY in the weeks ahead.
Earnings Season: A Stress Test for Stocks
The third-quarter earnings season kicks off with major banks and tech companies reporting this week. Expectations are high: analysts project around 8% EPS growth for S&P 500 constituents.
However, several factors indicate that this season could reveal underlying weaknesses:
High expectations and valuation pressure – Companies that fail to meet earnings or guidance could see outsized declines, creating ripple effects across the index.
Sectoral stress – Technology, finance, and industrials are exposed to higher input costs, slowing consumer demand, and margin compression. Misses in these sectors often drive SPY lower more than average.
Macro headwinds – High interest rates, slowing GDP growth, and trade tensions with China could exacerbate negative reactions.
Historically, SPY tends to be vulnerable after earnings seasons that reveal cracks in corporate performance, especially when macro uncertainty is elevated.
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Pressures
Trade tensions: The U.S.-China conflict over rare earth metals and tariffs adds uncertainty to corporate supply chains. Even if earnings beat expectations, investor sentiment can remain fragile.
Recession risk: Economists from J.P. Morgan and S&P Global highlight a 30–40% chance of a U.S. recession by year-end 2025. Weak economic indicators can amplify post-earnings selloffs.
Volatility spikes: The VIX has started creeping higher after last week’s recovery, signaling that investors are hedging against downside risks. Historically, spikes in VIX correlate with short-term SPY declines.
Conclusion: Post-Earnings Risk for SPY
Traders and investors should watch for:
Missed earnings or cautious guidance from major banks and tech companies.
Rising VIX and fear-driven flows into protective options.
Breaks of critical technical support levels in SPY.
In this environment, positioning for a modest correction or increased volatility in SPY could be prudent until the earnings season clears and market sentiment stabilizes.
Weekly Market Outlook | Nifty · BankNifty · S&P 500Nifty closed 25,285 (+390 pts) after making 25,330 / 24,881 — once again perfectly respecting my range of 25,300–24,500! 💪
As expected, BankNifty confirmed its W-pattern breakout, jumping 2% — strength clearly visible in the PSU bank pack.
Next week focus
• Above 25,450 → breakout toward 25,700+
• Below 25,130 → selling pressure till 25,000 / 24,850
Range for the week: 25,700–24,850
Shorters, stay patient — only if BankNifty cracks 55,700 does weakness confirm. Till then, it’s buy-on-dips for me.
Global cue: Trump’s proposed 100% China tariff shook US & crypto markets — watch its spillover effect on sentiment.
S&P 500 closed 6,552 (-160 pts). Holding above 6,360 = buy-on-dips;
Above 6,625 → uptrend resumes.
Below 6,360 → correction toward 6,225 / 6,142 / 6,100.
Exciting week ahead for both momentum traders & option sellers!
SPY Reaches 2-year Final Target #3 (670) and DropsTrading Fam,
I promised a video update this week. However, due to unforeseen issues with my streaming app, I have opted for a static post instead. Apologies but I'll go through updates on our chart, explaining where we are, and where we might be headed next.
We'll start here with the weekly. I want you to focus in on the yellow Elliot Wave pattern. All along I have stated that I am no Elliot Wave expert. However, I seem to have gotten it right this time ...at least so far.
The first wave starts around Dec. of 2018. We dipped harshly during COVID and that completed our wave (2). The third wave is often long and extended and we hit our top in Jan. 2022. Wave (4) then gave us our dip and the start of our Cup and Handle seen in pink. I don't know much but I do know wave (5) is often equal or greater than (3). I started looking for a final target for wave (5). My Cup and Handle soon offered that target to me.
So now let's zoom into the daily:
You can see Target #1 was nearly hit. You'll remember I sold here due to nearly touching that white uptrend. I waited for the dip back into support (RED) and re-entered focusing in on Target #2 which also coincided with price hitting that white trendline and being rejected. We bounced on that red support again and double-topped. This time we broke through our red support and came all the way down to another support which I expected to hold (white). It did. I then knew we were on our way to Target #3. But I've stated all along that I did not think we'd break back above that previous red support which now has become massive resistance. So far, I have been right. The Cup and Handle pattern also gave me that 670-700 target. Nailed that as well.
Could we go higher? Absolutely. That's what blow-off tops do. They often surprise the market with one final wild ride. Everyone piles in out of FOMO. And I have expected a final price of up to $700 SPY all along. Will this happen? Remains to be seen. But my experience has taught me that we are near the top. And since, I am satisfied with a price of $670 being that this is the beginning of my third and final target box, I pulled most of my personal money out a few days ago. My main goal now is to avoid greed and preserve capital. That is what I will do until the market tells me otherwise.
I want to take one final look at our monthly chart:
See that thick white trendline that starts in 2009? That is the beginning of our secular bull market. This next part is going to sound insane but that is often the case when you read what I write, we could technically drop all the way down to SPY 300, over 55% from where we are right now, and STILL be in a bull market! Can you imagine how many traders will start to scream that the world is ending? And yet, technically the market will remain bullish. Crazy to think about, but definitely worth noting.
✌️Stew
Market Weekly Wrap – Nifty & S&P 500 AnalysisNifty had a tough week, closing at 24654, down 673 points (-2.7%) from last week’s close. This was exactly in line with the downtrend warning I’ve been sharing over the past 3-4 weeks.
Key Highlights:
Weekly Range: High 25331 – Low 24629
Two-Week Correction: Down 3.15% from the recent high of 25448
Key Support Levels: 24474 / 24500 – watch closely!
If Nifty holds 24474/24500, we could see a short-term bounce of 1–2% toward 24950/25000.
But below 24300, brace for a deeper correction — Nifty could retest 23185 support levels.
Investor Tip:
The old saying still applies: "Be greedy when others are fearful."
This is a great time to start deploying capital — either by picking fundamentally strong stocks or through SIP/MF/ETF routes. If the market dips further, you’ll get opportunities to average your positions at better prices.
Sector to Watch Next Week: METALS — this sector looks strong and can outperform if market sentiment turns positive.
My Nifty Range for Next Week: 25050 – 24250
A breakout or breakdown beyond this range could trigger fast, directional moves.
US Markets – S&P 500 Update:
S&P 500 closed at 6643, down just 20 points, holding strong near its key Fibonacci support at 6568.
Upside Levels: Needs to sustain above 6689 for targets at 6780 / 6930 / 6959
Downside Risk: Below 6568, watch for 6502 / 6454 / 6376
Pro Tip: Keep a trailing stop-loss (SL) at 6524 to lock in profits
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Market correction was expected – use this opportunity wisely
✅ Watch 24474 support for potential bounce
✅ Metal sector could lead gains next week
✅ S&P 500 holding key support, but keep SLs in place
SPY SEP 25,2025 READ NOTESSpy can still hit $676 but as a trader my job is to understand the risk then put Stop loss & then trade.
So, I am long with stocks only:
SL @$653 with a target of $676.
The level is pretty average & most of the traders who learnt price action from me won't even call this a level. If you don't understand a level, then don't trade it(simple).
I initiated the long trade when I posted the chart in the morning.
If it hits my SL then il accept and move on. I am waiting for this week to close &will publish the video analysis tomorrow after market close.
NOTE: DO NOT TRADE OPTIONS
SPIRAL FOCUS POINT 9/27 PLUS OR MINUS 3 DAYS EVENT The chart posted is the next turn within the spirals as we are nearing fib projections and wave A x 1.382 in the sp 500 6648/6671 . I am very bearish again at each turn a minor top has seen a pull back But now the PUT/Call models are Bell ringing . I have covered my short from friday close this morning and based on the Holidays it will be rather thin trading . I will try to be patient and wait now to Re enter the puts best of trades Wavetimer
$SPY Neutral Prediction--Traders Eye BreakoutDaily AI-powered trade ideas, SPY 0DTE plans, NLP news signals, weekly option alerts & live trading updates. Trade smarter, every day. 🚀📈
🚀 AMEX:SPY Intraday Prediction – Neutral Trend, Breakout Loading?
📊 Market Status
Price: $660.77
Data Quality: ✅ Strong
Timeframe: 1-Min K-Line Precision
🎯 Price Forecasts
30-Min Target → $661.18 (+0.06%)
2-Hr Target → $659.75 (-0.16%)
End-of-Day → $662.85 (+0.31%)
📈 Extended Outlook
Final Target: $662.85 (+0.31%)
Volatility: 3.4%
Range: $659.46 – $662.85
⚖️ Trend Read
Direction: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 55%
Bias: ⚡ Watching for breakout above $662.85
🔑 Levels That Matter
Support → $659.46
Resistance → $662.85
Range Size → 0.5%
Nifty Weekly Market Outlook – Bulls on the ChargeNifty closed the week at 25,114 (+373 points 📈),
with a high of 25,139 and low of 24,751.
As I mentioned last week, Nifty once again played perfectly within my range of 25,100 – 24,300.
Now, we are standing at a critical resistance zone of 25,200 – 25,300 – exactly where the market started its downward journey after 21st Aug 2025.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch for Next Week
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If Nifty sustains above 25,250, we may see a strong move towards 25,500 / 25,600.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
A break below Friday’s low of 25,038 could invite bears back and take Nifty down to 24,700 or even lower.
💡 Pro Tip for Investors
Those waiting for a dip to invest might get a chance around 18th / 19th September.
But remember – waiting too long often means missing the rally!
✅ Action Plan:
📋 Keep a list of fundamentally strong stocks ready.
📉 If Nifty corrects towards 24,200 / 24,000, start buying in SIP mode – don’t wait for the “perfect bottom.”
🌎 S&P 500 Update
S&P 500 closed at 6,584 (+100 points), finally touching the crucial Fib level of 6,568.
📈 Above 6,568: Rally towards 6,959 could start.
🔒 Trailing SL: Move your stop-loss to 6,430 to lock profits and protect gains.
SPX500 Holds Above 6,527 Ahead of U.S. PPI DataSPX500 – Overview
Global equities rose early Wednesday as bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week strengthened after more weak U.S. jobs data. Traders now await the release of U.S. PPI today and CPI tomorrow, which may spark short-term volatility, though few expect them to alter the Fed’s plans.
Technical Outlook:
📈 The index remains in a bullish trend, with potential to set a new ATH near 6,550. A confirmed breakout above this level could open another bullish leg.
📉 To confirm bearish momentum, price would need to close a 1H candle below 6,527, exposing downside targets at 6,518 → 6,506.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,527
Resistance: 6,550 – 6,566
Support: 6,518 – 6,506
BTCUSDT 1D Time frame 📊 BTC/USDT Daily Snapshot
Current Price: $112,493
Change: −0.37% from the previous close
Intraday Range: $110,812 – $113,029
Market Cap: Approximately $2.2 trillion
P/E Ratio: Not applicable (Bitcoin is not a stock)
Beta: Not applicable (Bitcoin is not a stock)
🔎 Key Levels
Resistance:
R1: $113,000 (recent high)
R2: $116,000 (next resistance zone)
Support:
S1: $110,800 (immediate support)
S2: $107,000 (next support level)
S3: $102,000 (longer-term support)
📈 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): 43 — Neutral, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure
MACD: Bullish crossover observed, suggesting upward momentum
Moving Averages:
5-day SMA: $111,500 — Buy signal
50-day SMA: $112,830 — Resistance level
200-day SMA: $101,000 — Long-term support
Stochastic Oscillator: Oversold, indicating potential for a bounce
📌 Market Sentiment
Catalysts: Positive momentum following recent gains and analyst upgrades.
Sector Performance: Cryptocurrency market showing strength, with Bitcoin leading gains among peers.
Options Activity: Significant trading in call options at $113,000 strike price, indicating bullish sentiment.
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $113,000 could lead to a push toward $116,000 and higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below $110,800 may test support around $107,000.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, with positive momentum but facing near-term resistance.
Nifty Forms Shooting Star – Is Septmber Correction on the Cards?Nifty closed this week at 24,870, up 240 points from the previous week’s close. It made a high of 25,153 and a low of 24,852, once again respecting my projected range of 25,100 – 24,300.
But here’s the key: this week, Nifty formed a Shooting Star candle, which is a bearish reversal pattern. As long as Nifty stays above 24,852, bulls are safe. But a break below this level could trigger downward pressure toward 24,400.
📊 Next Week’s Range:
➡️ Likely range → 25,350 – 24,400
➡️ Break below 24,852 = bearish pressure
➡️ If 24,400 breaks, 23,900 could come into play
Historical September Pattern:
From the 2nd week of September, markets have historically shown 6–11% corrections from their highs. If history repeats, within the next 10 days we could see another push toward 25,600/25,700, followed by heavy selling pressure.
✅ My Plan:
If markets rise in the coming days, I’ll be looking to cash out from existing positions and prepare to re-enter at better levels if a correction begins in the 2nd or 3rd week of September.
US Market Update – S&P500
The S&P500 bounced from 6,343 support and managed to close just 10 points higher than last week. Above its previous week’s high of 6,481, it has the potential to test the 6,568 Fibonacci level. Investors in US markets should trail their stop-loss to 6,330 to safeguard profits.
Want me to review any index or cryptocurrency for you? Drop it in the comments and I’ll cover it in my next update!
Wkly Market Wrap – Nifty Breaks Losing Streak, Bulls Eye 25,100Nifty closed the week at 24,631, up 270 points from last week’s close, after hitting a high of 24,702 and a low of 24,347. As I highlighted in last week’s outlook, Nifty once again respected my range of 24,800–23,900 to the dot.
After five straight weeks of red, we finally saw a green weekly close—a much-needed breather for the bulls. But remember, this is the first pullback after a prolonged downtrend, so sellers are likely to make another attempt to drag the markets lower.
📌 Key levels for next week:
Support: 24,300 – If bulls defend this level, we could see a rally toward 25,000–25,100.
Resistance: 25,100 – Strong selling pressure likely here.
Even if 24,300 breaks, I don’t expect Nifty to slip below 24,200–24,150 this week.
💡 Opportunity Alert: For those who’ve been patiently waiting for a dip to enter, this week could present a good buying window—possibly followed by another opportunity by the second week of September. Have your list of fundamentally strong stocks ready to pounce.
Global Cue – S&P 500 on Fire
The S&P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high of 6,468, and the momentum suggests it’s on track to test the key Fibonacci level of 6,568. If you’re invested in the US markets, trail your stop-loss to 6,200 to safeguard profits.
Bulls are back in the game, but sellers haven’t left the field—next week will be all about who controls the pitch!
NDX & SPX , Stay heavy on positionsNDX & SPX , Stay heavy on positions. (QLD, TQQQ)
While the market continues to break all-time highs, market participants remain cautious.
Some are even anticipating a pullback in September, and overall, expectations for a correction are widely present.
Interestingly, market participants often have a good instinct for major turning points.
The issue, however, is timing—they tend to act too early.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
Weekly Market Outlook – Nifty & S&P 500 AnalysisNifty closed the week at 24,363, down 200 points from the previous week’s close, after making a high of 24,736 and a low of 24,337. As highlighted last week, Nifty traded exactly within my projected range of 25,000–24,100, but the negative takeaway is that it has now closed below the crucial support of 24,400.
If Nifty sustains below 24,300 next week, there is a strong probability of it testing 24,000/23,900 support levels. My outlook for the coming week: expect movement within 24,800–23,900, with a potential bounce from 24,000/23,900.
Interestingly, this marks the 6th consecutive week of Nifty closing lower — something that last happened 12 years ago in August 2013. Historically, after five straight weeks of selling, we usually see at least one green candle. If that bounce comes next week, my focus will be on whether selling resumes afterward or finally takes a breather.
Remember the timeless stock market wisdom:
“When everyone is fearful, be greedy. When everyone is greedy, be fearful.”
For long-term investors waiting for a dip, the opportunity is here — consider accumulating fundamentally strong companies for the long haul. Traders, brace for volatility.
S&P 500 Outlook:
The S&P 500 closed 150 points higher than last week, validating my prediction of holding 6,200. On the weekly chart, the index is showing signs of forming an M-pattern — a bearish setup. To negate this, the S&P 500 must sustain above 6,400, which could extend its rally towards 6,454/6,500 and the key Fibonacci level of 6,568.
However, if it fails to hold 6,400, we could see a retest of 6,225. Investors in U.S. markets should trail their stop-losses to protect gains.
Key Levels to Watch Next Week:
Nifty: Support – 24,000/23,900 | Resistance – 24,800
S&P 500: Support – 6,225 | Resistance – 6,454/6,500/6,568






















