S&P500 - $8.000 is the ultimate target!🎊S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) continues the bullrun:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, the S&P500 has been rallying +40%. However, this does not mean that the bullrun is over any time soon. Since the S&P500 perfectly respects the rising channel pattern, a move to the upper trendline is the target.
📝Levels to watch:
$8,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Spy500
Weekly Market Wrap: Nifty Eyes All-Time HighsNifty closed the week at 25,709, gaining 400 points from the previous week’s close — marking another strong performance! It made a high of 25,781 and a low of 25,060.
As I highlighted last week, Nifty was expected to trade within the 25,700–24,850 range — and while it briefly broke out by 80 points, it closed right back within the range, showing controlled optimism.
Technical Outlook:
The monthly charts of both Nifty and Bank Nifty are now showing signs of forming a bullish W-pattern, which typically indicates trend reversal and strength. If Nifty manages to sustain above 25,900, we could see it rally towards its all-time high of 26,277, followed by the important Fibonacci level of 26,492.
On the downside, a pullback towards 25,450–25,500 could offer a great buy-on-dips opportunity for fresh long positions.
Next Week’s Range Expectation:
With a holiday-shortened week ahead (holiday on Wednesday and only a 1-hour trading session on Tuesday), expect Nifty to remain range-bound between 26,200–25,250. A breakout beyond these levels could spark some serious fireworks!
Big Picture View:
I continue to remain optimistic about India’s growth story. Over the coming years, I expect:
Nifty to reach 44,000+
Sensex to touch 1,44,000+
Of course, there will be healthy pullbacks and corrections along the way — offering smart investors a chance to accumulate at better valuations.
💡 Investment Ideas:
To participate in India’s long-term growth journey, consider systematic investments in:
NiftyBees, MidcapBees, SmallCapBees & GoldBees
Also, keep an eye on the Banking, Auto, and Infrastructure sectors — all showing strong bullish setups for the next few weeks.
Global Markets – S&P 500 Update:
The S&P 500 closed at 6,664, up nearly 110 points for the week, forming an inside candle on the weekly chart.
A move above 6,715 can push it towards 6,760 / 6,780 / 6,930 / 6,959 (key resistance levels).
On the downside, 6,555 and 6,384 are crucial supports — as long as 6,384 holds, it remains a buy-on-dips market for me.
Wishing everyone a very Happy & Prosperous Diwali!
May this festival of lights bring you wealth, wisdom, and winning trades!
Warning Signs Flashing: SPY May Plunge After Earnings SeasonAfter the recent rollercoaster in equities and crypto, markets are entering a critical period: earnings season. While the initial rebound after last Friday’s selloff has restored some optimism, the broader picture suggests potential downside for SPY in the weeks ahead.
Earnings Season: A Stress Test for Stocks
The third-quarter earnings season kicks off with major banks and tech companies reporting this week. Expectations are high: analysts project around 8% EPS growth for S&P 500 constituents.
However, several factors indicate that this season could reveal underlying weaknesses:
High expectations and valuation pressure – Companies that fail to meet earnings or guidance could see outsized declines, creating ripple effects across the index.
Sectoral stress – Technology, finance, and industrials are exposed to higher input costs, slowing consumer demand, and margin compression. Misses in these sectors often drive SPY lower more than average.
Macro headwinds – High interest rates, slowing GDP growth, and trade tensions with China could exacerbate negative reactions.
Historically, SPY tends to be vulnerable after earnings seasons that reveal cracks in corporate performance, especially when macro uncertainty is elevated.
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Pressures
Trade tensions: The U.S.-China conflict over rare earth metals and tariffs adds uncertainty to corporate supply chains. Even if earnings beat expectations, investor sentiment can remain fragile.
Recession risk: Economists from J.P. Morgan and S&P Global highlight a 30–40% chance of a U.S. recession by year-end 2025. Weak economic indicators can amplify post-earnings selloffs.
Volatility spikes: The VIX has started creeping higher after last week’s recovery, signaling that investors are hedging against downside risks. Historically, spikes in VIX correlate with short-term SPY declines.
Conclusion: Post-Earnings Risk for SPY
Traders and investors should watch for:
Missed earnings or cautious guidance from major banks and tech companies.
Rising VIX and fear-driven flows into protective options.
Breaks of critical technical support levels in SPY.
In this environment, positioning for a modest correction or increased volatility in SPY could be prudent until the earnings season clears and market sentiment stabilizes.
Weekly Market Outlook | Nifty · BankNifty · S&P 500Nifty closed 25,285 (+390 pts) after making 25,330 / 24,881 — once again perfectly respecting my range of 25,300–24,500! 💪
As expected, BankNifty confirmed its W-pattern breakout, jumping 2% — strength clearly visible in the PSU bank pack.
Next week focus
• Above 25,450 → breakout toward 25,700+
• Below 25,130 → selling pressure till 25,000 / 24,850
Range for the week: 25,700–24,850
Shorters, stay patient — only if BankNifty cracks 55,700 does weakness confirm. Till then, it’s buy-on-dips for me.
Global cue: Trump’s proposed 100% China tariff shook US & crypto markets — watch its spillover effect on sentiment.
S&P 500 closed 6,552 (-160 pts). Holding above 6,360 = buy-on-dips;
Above 6,625 → uptrend resumes.
Below 6,360 → correction toward 6,225 / 6,142 / 6,100.
Exciting week ahead for both momentum traders & option sellers!
SPY Reaches 2-year Final Target #3 (670) and DropsTrading Fam,
I promised a video update this week. However, due to unforeseen issues with my streaming app, I have opted for a static post instead. Apologies but I'll go through updates on our chart, explaining where we are, and where we might be headed next.
We'll start here with the weekly. I want you to focus in on the yellow Elliot Wave pattern. All along I have stated that I am no Elliot Wave expert. However, I seem to have gotten it right this time ...at least so far.
The first wave starts around Dec. of 2018. We dipped harshly during COVID and that completed our wave (2). The third wave is often long and extended and we hit our top in Jan. 2022. Wave (4) then gave us our dip and the start of our Cup and Handle seen in pink. I don't know much but I do know wave (5) is often equal or greater than (3). I started looking for a final target for wave (5). My Cup and Handle soon offered that target to me.
So now let's zoom into the daily:
You can see Target #1 was nearly hit. You'll remember I sold here due to nearly touching that white uptrend. I waited for the dip back into support (RED) and re-entered focusing in on Target #2 which also coincided with price hitting that white trendline and being rejected. We bounced on that red support again and double-topped. This time we broke through our red support and came all the way down to another support which I expected to hold (white). It did. I then knew we were on our way to Target #3. But I've stated all along that I did not think we'd break back above that previous red support which now has become massive resistance. So far, I have been right. The Cup and Handle pattern also gave me that 670-700 target. Nailed that as well.
Could we go higher? Absolutely. That's what blow-off tops do. They often surprise the market with one final wild ride. Everyone piles in out of FOMO. And I have expected a final price of up to $700 SPY all along. Will this happen? Remains to be seen. But my experience has taught me that we are near the top. And since, I am satisfied with a price of $670 being that this is the beginning of my third and final target box, I pulled most of my personal money out a few days ago. My main goal now is to avoid greed and preserve capital. That is what I will do until the market tells me otherwise.
I want to take one final look at our monthly chart:
See that thick white trendline that starts in 2009? That is the beginning of our secular bull market. This next part is going to sound insane but that is often the case when you read what I write, we could technically drop all the way down to SPY 300, over 55% from where we are right now, and STILL be in a bull market! Can you imagine how many traders will start to scream that the world is ending? And yet, technically the market will remain bullish. Crazy to think about, but definitely worth noting.
✌️Stew
Market Weekly Wrap – Nifty & S&P 500 AnalysisNifty had a tough week, closing at 24654, down 673 points (-2.7%) from last week’s close. This was exactly in line with the downtrend warning I’ve been sharing over the past 3-4 weeks.
Key Highlights:
Weekly Range: High 25331 – Low 24629
Two-Week Correction: Down 3.15% from the recent high of 25448
Key Support Levels: 24474 / 24500 – watch closely!
If Nifty holds 24474/24500, we could see a short-term bounce of 1–2% toward 24950/25000.
But below 24300, brace for a deeper correction — Nifty could retest 23185 support levels.
Investor Tip:
The old saying still applies: "Be greedy when others are fearful."
This is a great time to start deploying capital — either by picking fundamentally strong stocks or through SIP/MF/ETF routes. If the market dips further, you’ll get opportunities to average your positions at better prices.
Sector to Watch Next Week: METALS — this sector looks strong and can outperform if market sentiment turns positive.
My Nifty Range for Next Week: 25050 – 24250
A breakout or breakdown beyond this range could trigger fast, directional moves.
US Markets – S&P 500 Update:
S&P 500 closed at 6643, down just 20 points, holding strong near its key Fibonacci support at 6568.
Upside Levels: Needs to sustain above 6689 for targets at 6780 / 6930 / 6959
Downside Risk: Below 6568, watch for 6502 / 6454 / 6376
Pro Tip: Keep a trailing stop-loss (SL) at 6524 to lock in profits
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Market correction was expected – use this opportunity wisely
✅ Watch 24474 support for potential bounce
✅ Metal sector could lead gains next week
✅ S&P 500 holding key support, but keep SLs in place
SPY SEP 25,2025 READ NOTESSpy can still hit $676 but as a trader my job is to understand the risk then put Stop loss & then trade.
So, I am long with stocks only:
SL @$653 with a target of $676.
The level is pretty average & most of the traders who learnt price action from me won't even call this a level. If you don't understand a level, then don't trade it(simple).
I initiated the long trade when I posted the chart in the morning.
If it hits my SL then il accept and move on. I am waiting for this week to close &will publish the video analysis tomorrow after market close.
NOTE: DO NOT TRADE OPTIONS
SPIRAL FOCUS POINT 9/27 PLUS OR MINUS 3 DAYS EVENT The chart posted is the next turn within the spirals as we are nearing fib projections and wave A x 1.382 in the sp 500 6648/6671 . I am very bearish again at each turn a minor top has seen a pull back But now the PUT/Call models are Bell ringing . I have covered my short from friday close this morning and based on the Holidays it will be rather thin trading . I will try to be patient and wait now to Re enter the puts best of trades Wavetimer
$SPY Neutral Prediction--Traders Eye BreakoutDaily AI-powered trade ideas, SPY 0DTE plans, NLP news signals, weekly option alerts & live trading updates. Trade smarter, every day. 🚀📈
🚀 AMEX:SPY Intraday Prediction – Neutral Trend, Breakout Loading?
📊 Market Status
Price: $660.77
Data Quality: ✅ Strong
Timeframe: 1-Min K-Line Precision
🎯 Price Forecasts
30-Min Target → $661.18 (+0.06%)
2-Hr Target → $659.75 (-0.16%)
End-of-Day → $662.85 (+0.31%)
📈 Extended Outlook
Final Target: $662.85 (+0.31%)
Volatility: 3.4%
Range: $659.46 – $662.85
⚖️ Trend Read
Direction: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 55%
Bias: ⚡ Watching for breakout above $662.85
🔑 Levels That Matter
Support → $659.46
Resistance → $662.85
Range Size → 0.5%
Nifty Weekly Market Outlook – Bulls on the ChargeNifty closed the week at 25,114 (+373 points 📈),
with a high of 25,139 and low of 24,751.
As I mentioned last week, Nifty once again played perfectly within my range of 25,100 – 24,300.
Now, we are standing at a critical resistance zone of 25,200 – 25,300 – exactly where the market started its downward journey after 21st Aug 2025.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch for Next Week
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If Nifty sustains above 25,250, we may see a strong move towards 25,500 / 25,600.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
A break below Friday’s low of 25,038 could invite bears back and take Nifty down to 24,700 or even lower.
💡 Pro Tip for Investors
Those waiting for a dip to invest might get a chance around 18th / 19th September.
But remember – waiting too long often means missing the rally!
✅ Action Plan:
📋 Keep a list of fundamentally strong stocks ready.
📉 If Nifty corrects towards 24,200 / 24,000, start buying in SIP mode – don’t wait for the “perfect bottom.”
🌎 S&P 500 Update
S&P 500 closed at 6,584 (+100 points), finally touching the crucial Fib level of 6,568.
📈 Above 6,568: Rally towards 6,959 could start.
🔒 Trailing SL: Move your stop-loss to 6,430 to lock profits and protect gains.
SPX500 Holds Above 6,527 Ahead of U.S. PPI DataSPX500 – Overview
Global equities rose early Wednesday as bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week strengthened after more weak U.S. jobs data. Traders now await the release of U.S. PPI today and CPI tomorrow, which may spark short-term volatility, though few expect them to alter the Fed’s plans.
Technical Outlook:
📈 The index remains in a bullish trend, with potential to set a new ATH near 6,550. A confirmed breakout above this level could open another bullish leg.
📉 To confirm bearish momentum, price would need to close a 1H candle below 6,527, exposing downside targets at 6,518 → 6,506.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,527
Resistance: 6,550 – 6,566
Support: 6,518 – 6,506
BTCUSDT 1D Time frame 📊 BTC/USDT Daily Snapshot
Current Price: $112,493
Change: −0.37% from the previous close
Intraday Range: $110,812 – $113,029
Market Cap: Approximately $2.2 trillion
P/E Ratio: Not applicable (Bitcoin is not a stock)
Beta: Not applicable (Bitcoin is not a stock)
🔎 Key Levels
Resistance:
R1: $113,000 (recent high)
R2: $116,000 (next resistance zone)
Support:
S1: $110,800 (immediate support)
S2: $107,000 (next support level)
S3: $102,000 (longer-term support)
📈 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): 43 — Neutral, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure
MACD: Bullish crossover observed, suggesting upward momentum
Moving Averages:
5-day SMA: $111,500 — Buy signal
50-day SMA: $112,830 — Resistance level
200-day SMA: $101,000 — Long-term support
Stochastic Oscillator: Oversold, indicating potential for a bounce
📌 Market Sentiment
Catalysts: Positive momentum following recent gains and analyst upgrades.
Sector Performance: Cryptocurrency market showing strength, with Bitcoin leading gains among peers.
Options Activity: Significant trading in call options at $113,000 strike price, indicating bullish sentiment.
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $113,000 could lead to a push toward $116,000 and higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below $110,800 may test support around $107,000.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, with positive momentum but facing near-term resistance.
Nifty Forms Shooting Star – Is Septmber Correction on the Cards?Nifty closed this week at 24,870, up 240 points from the previous week’s close. It made a high of 25,153 and a low of 24,852, once again respecting my projected range of 25,100 – 24,300.
But here’s the key: this week, Nifty formed a Shooting Star candle, which is a bearish reversal pattern. As long as Nifty stays above 24,852, bulls are safe. But a break below this level could trigger downward pressure toward 24,400.
📊 Next Week’s Range:
➡️ Likely range → 25,350 – 24,400
➡️ Break below 24,852 = bearish pressure
➡️ If 24,400 breaks, 23,900 could come into play
Historical September Pattern:
From the 2nd week of September, markets have historically shown 6–11% corrections from their highs. If history repeats, within the next 10 days we could see another push toward 25,600/25,700, followed by heavy selling pressure.
✅ My Plan:
If markets rise in the coming days, I’ll be looking to cash out from existing positions and prepare to re-enter at better levels if a correction begins in the 2nd or 3rd week of September.
US Market Update – S&P500
The S&P500 bounced from 6,343 support and managed to close just 10 points higher than last week. Above its previous week’s high of 6,481, it has the potential to test the 6,568 Fibonacci level. Investors in US markets should trail their stop-loss to 6,330 to safeguard profits.
Want me to review any index or cryptocurrency for you? Drop it in the comments and I’ll cover it in my next update!
Wkly Market Wrap – Nifty Breaks Losing Streak, Bulls Eye 25,100Nifty closed the week at 24,631, up 270 points from last week’s close, after hitting a high of 24,702 and a low of 24,347. As I highlighted in last week’s outlook, Nifty once again respected my range of 24,800–23,900 to the dot.
After five straight weeks of red, we finally saw a green weekly close—a much-needed breather for the bulls. But remember, this is the first pullback after a prolonged downtrend, so sellers are likely to make another attempt to drag the markets lower.
📌 Key levels for next week:
Support: 24,300 – If bulls defend this level, we could see a rally toward 25,000–25,100.
Resistance: 25,100 – Strong selling pressure likely here.
Even if 24,300 breaks, I don’t expect Nifty to slip below 24,200–24,150 this week.
💡 Opportunity Alert: For those who’ve been patiently waiting for a dip to enter, this week could present a good buying window—possibly followed by another opportunity by the second week of September. Have your list of fundamentally strong stocks ready to pounce.
Global Cue – S&P 500 on Fire
The S&P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high of 6,468, and the momentum suggests it’s on track to test the key Fibonacci level of 6,568. If you’re invested in the US markets, trail your stop-loss to 6,200 to safeguard profits.
Bulls are back in the game, but sellers haven’t left the field—next week will be all about who controls the pitch!
NDX & SPX , Stay heavy on positionsNDX & SPX , Stay heavy on positions. (QLD, TQQQ)
While the market continues to break all-time highs, market participants remain cautious.
Some are even anticipating a pullback in September, and overall, expectations for a correction are widely present.
Interestingly, market participants often have a good instinct for major turning points.
The issue, however, is timing—they tend to act too early.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
Weekly Market Outlook – Nifty & S&P 500 AnalysisNifty closed the week at 24,363, down 200 points from the previous week’s close, after making a high of 24,736 and a low of 24,337. As highlighted last week, Nifty traded exactly within my projected range of 25,000–24,100, but the negative takeaway is that it has now closed below the crucial support of 24,400.
If Nifty sustains below 24,300 next week, there is a strong probability of it testing 24,000/23,900 support levels. My outlook for the coming week: expect movement within 24,800–23,900, with a potential bounce from 24,000/23,900.
Interestingly, this marks the 6th consecutive week of Nifty closing lower — something that last happened 12 years ago in August 2013. Historically, after five straight weeks of selling, we usually see at least one green candle. If that bounce comes next week, my focus will be on whether selling resumes afterward or finally takes a breather.
Remember the timeless stock market wisdom:
“When everyone is fearful, be greedy. When everyone is greedy, be fearful.”
For long-term investors waiting for a dip, the opportunity is here — consider accumulating fundamentally strong companies for the long haul. Traders, brace for volatility.
S&P 500 Outlook:
The S&P 500 closed 150 points higher than last week, validating my prediction of holding 6,200. On the weekly chart, the index is showing signs of forming an M-pattern — a bearish setup. To negate this, the S&P 500 must sustain above 6,400, which could extend its rally towards 6,454/6,500 and the key Fibonacci level of 6,568.
However, if it fails to hold 6,400, we could see a retest of 6,225. Investors in U.S. markets should trail their stop-losses to protect gains.
Key Levels to Watch Next Week:
Nifty: Support – 24,000/23,900 | Resistance – 24,800
S&P 500: Support – 6,225 | Resistance – 6,454/6,500/6,568
Weekly Market Wrap – Nifty Slides, Global Sentiment WeakensNifty ended the week on a bearish note, closing at 24,565, down 270 points or nearly 1.1% from last week's close. It touched a high of 24,956 and a low of 24,535, perfectly respecting the range I shared last week: 25,300–24,400.
As I highlighted earlier, the inverted hammer formation gave the bears an upper hand—and the index corrected 1.74% from the recent highs. My view continues to favor caution, with the expected trading range for the upcoming week at 25,000–24,100.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 24,400 (key bounce area), followed by 24,100 / 23,900 in case of further breakdown.
Resistance Zone: Upside capped near 25,000.
If the market holds 24,400 around 6th–7th August, expect a short-term bounce. However, if this level is breached, expect dips to 24,100 or 23,900, which could offer short-covering opportunities.
Global Cues:
The S&P 500 also had a rough week, closing at 6,238, down 2.5% week-on-week. This decline sparked a wave of selling across global markets. The 6,200 level is crucial—if it holds, we might see a rebound globally, including in Indian equities. Below that, 6,100 remains the breakout retest zone, which I believe should provide some cushion.
💡 Strategy Going Forward:
Focus on stocks showing relative strength in this falling market—they’ll likely lead the rally once sentiment turns.
Avoid chasing rallies, and watch for signs of bottoming out near key support zones.
Keep an eye on global indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, as their stability will dictate near-term direction for Indian markets.
Stay sharp, stay prepared. Let the bears have their moment, but be ready to pounce when the tide turns.
ES Weekly Recap & Gameplan – 27.07.2025🧭 Market Sentiment
The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by:
• Declining inflation figures
• Trump’s pivot toward aggressive rate cuts
This shift reinforces a risk-on environment across U.S. indices.
🔙 Previous Week Recap
• ES continued its price discovery journey
• Price ran the 4H swing liquidity and shifted market structure
• A clean 1H demand zone was established post-MSS, leading to a strong move toward new ATH
• A bullish trendline has also formed as a visual representation of this momentum
• I anticipated a deeper retracement last week but adjusted my execution based on the ICT SMT concept — see previous week’s ES plan for details
📊 Technical Analysis
Looking forward:
• My expectation is a continued bullish price discovery
• Watching for price to tap into and potentially deviate below the Daily Fair Value Gap (D-FVG)
• This zone also aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci equilibrium level, which I consider a discounted entry zone
• Confluence of liquidity + trendline + FVG + Fib makes this an ideal location for new long setups
⚙️ Setup Trigger & Trade Plan
Entry Strategy:
• Wait for a clear 1H–4H market structure shift
• Look for demand zone formation within the discount zone
• Execute long trades after confirmation and retracement into this zone
Trade Management:
🎯 Target: New All-Time Highs
⛔ Stoploss: Swing low beneath 1H–4H demand structure
🗨️ If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and drop a comment below — I’d love to hear your thoughts and setups for the week!
📥 Follow me for more weekly breakdowns and real-time updates throughout the trading week.






















