S&P500 - The Most Important Channel Breakout!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting a crucial breakout area:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
During 2024, the S&P500 rallied more than 25% after we already saw a very bullish year of 2023. However, momentum is always more likely to continue and since the S&P500 is currently retesting a major breakout level, this bullish momentum could lead to a final breakout.
Levels to watch: $6.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Spy500
$U fake out to breakout? In early November, Unity Software ( NYSE:U ) appeared poised for a breakout, but instead, it reversed course and sold off by the end of the trading session. The stock swiftly dropped from $23, breaking through the $18.50 support level and triggering stop-loss orders 🤦♂️. However, it quickly rebounded, surging past its early-November highs 😊. This type of price action often signals the potential for a strong upside move 🚀.
Market (Sectors) Performance OutlookSince November 6th, we’ve witnessed a seismic shift in the market landscape, with crypto breaking through and outperforming the broader market. 📈
The sectors leading the charge against the S&P 500 are XLY, XLE, XLF, XLC, and XLK. Notably, the MAG 7 have also been outpacing the market since November 7th. 💪
Smart money seems to be flowing into crypto, contributing to the sell-off in the S&P 500.
From a macroeconomic perspective, XLK and XLC have been market leaders for the past few months. However, it might be time to pivot towards the Energy sector, especially after a stellar earnings season where major E&P companies smashed their earnings estimates. ⚡️
Stay tuned and ready to capitalize on these dynamic market movements! 📊💼
SPY S&P 500 ETF End of the Year Price Target If you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY:
Now with Goldman Sachs lowering U.S. recession odds from 20% to 15% and raising their 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 6000 from 5600, the outlook for the market appears increasingly optimistic.
The reduced recession risk suggests stronger economic stability, and the upward revision in the S&P target points to continued growth potential.
Given these factors, I agree that a year-end price target of 600 on SPY is achievable.
SPY I Bullish rally and more continued growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** SPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
SPX 7-Minute Chart Analysis: Identifying Bullish MomentumThis SPX (S&P 500 Index) 7-minute chart provides a look into intraday bullish momentum using Heikin Ashi candles and moving averages. Here’s a breakdown of the key points and signals observed on this chart:
Key Indicators and Signals:
Call Signals:
The chart shows multiple “Call Signal” indicators (in green) along the trend, which highlight points where buying momentum is potentially entering the market. Each of these signals aligns closely with support areas or pullbacks within the uptrend, offering opportunities for entries in line with the prevailing trend.
Moving Averages (Orange and Blue Lines):
Orange Line (VWAP): The orange line tracks closer to price action and appears to act as a dynamic support level, with prices bouncing off it several times as the trend progresses upward. This moving average helps confirm the short-term bullish trend.
Blue Line (50 EMA or SMA): The blue moving average is further from the price but shows the overall upward trend. The price remains above this line, further confirming that bullish momentum is intact.
Heikin Ashi Candles:
The Heikin Ashi candles show consistent bullish candles (yellow) with few lower wicks, which indicates strong buying pressure. The limited presence of red candles reflects minor pullbacks rather than trend reversals, which is typical in a sustained uptrend.
Gray Support Zone(ORB):
There’s a gray support zone below the price AKA the opening range breakout, which was tested but held successfully. This area marks a key support level, as each time the price neared this zone, it bounced back, showing that buyers are defending this level strongly.
Analysis and Outlook:
Bullish Trend Confirmation: The consistent uptrend in SPX, supported by both moving averages and the strong Heikin Ashi candles, suggests that bullish momentum is likely to continue. The multiple “Call Signals” give confidence in the trend’s strength, indicating potential for further upside.
Entry and Exit Opportunities: You could use the pullbacks to the orange moving average or gray support zone as potential entry points, aligning with the overall uptrend. Watch for continued “Call Signal” alerts near these areas for high-probability entries.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Gray zone around 5,719 - 5,720 and the orange moving average.
Resistance: Look for any signs of resistance at psychological levels like 5,740 and 5,750, where some profit-taking might occur.
$SPY next-week!AMEX:SPY Trade Setup 💡
Target Entry: < $577
Position: SPY 574 Puts (Oct 30 Expiry)
Technical Analysis:
Multiple tests of major trendline last week = critical support level
Two potential scenarios:
Trendline Break ⬇️
Expect accelerated downside momentum
Trendline Hold ⬆️
Watch $585.27 as key breakout level
Break above = potential run to new ATHs
Risk Management:
Entry only if price drops below $577
Clear invalidation points at trendline and $585.27
Are we setting up for a 5-10% pullback pre-election?AMEX:SPY looks exhausted here and everyone is extremely bullish at the highs. Sentiment is at extremes and we have demark combo 13s that triggered at the end of last week. On top of that, we've been moving up in a rising wedge that looks set to break down.
Also, if we look at the chart, there's an imbalance in price action as we have largely gone straight up since the August 5th low and the area I've highlighted hasn't been retested at support.
All this leads me to believe that we should see a 5-10% pullback in the next couple of weeks prior to the election. Why in the next two weeks?
From a candlestick perspective, we're starting a new 2D, 3D, 2W, 3W candle today which leaves the possibility open of a trend change to start today. I expect the move to play out before the election.
I'm playing this idea solely through volatility calls which I averaged into Wednesday-Friday last week.
Let's see if it plays out.
BS Secured Lending Fund [BXSL] vs S&P500 [SPY] as ETF-InvestHello folks,
investment pot :
🔴
🟡
🟢 <<== Long-Term (over 1-5 years) ; Retirement/Savings
thesis:
"There are good alternatives to the SP500"
instrument:
The Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (NYSE: BXSL) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that primarily invests in the 'first lien senior secured debt*' of private U.S. companies. As a subsidiary of Blackstone, the world's largest alternative asset manager, BXSL provides financing solutions to companies in need of credit.
With a market cap of over $5.9 billion, BXSL is one of the largest BDCs in the US.
idea:
The chart shows BSXL divided by the SP500 (SPY):
As we can see, it outperforms the SP500 by approx. 10 percentage points.
Additionally, it is building further upside-potential against the Index.
Investors seeking a decent value pick as long-term savings/retirement hold, this Fund could be an interesting alternative. Assuming further dropping of interest rates in Q4/2024, this credit intensive business could profit from easing access to liquidity.
technical:
Ascending Triangle in comparison to the SPY500-ETF.
fundamentals:
💰Strong Dividend Yield : BXSL offers an attractive dividend yield of around 10.2% , making it an appealing option for income-focused investors.
🚀 Solid Financial Performance : BXSL has demonstrated consistent financial performance with a market cap of over $5.9 billion and a net income of $708.24 million over the last 2 years.
🧠 Experienced Management : As a subsidiary of Blackstone, one of the world's largest asset managers, BXSL benefits from experienced management and a robust infrastructure, ensuring effective oversight and strategic decision-making.
---
*footnotes:
First lien senior secured debt is a type of loan that has the highest priority in being repaid, secured by the borrower's assets as collateral.
Coffee Is Brewing!!!I don't know folks... again, I ain't nothing but a tier below an amateur beginning options player. There is a lot of learning still to do but I'm ready to be transparent with my thoughts and what I see a bit more often. So here with go with a previous fan favorite of Coffee Is Brewing!
Coffee Is Brewing Idea #2
NASDAQ:GOOGL has earnings coming up 10/22 and has had a little bit of price action these past few weeks with a niiiiiiiiiiice Pogo Stick bounce this past Friday and closed above the previous week... all which are bullish signals, to me! Again, from my perspective I've seen Bullish action for the past few weeks. As evidenced by my NASDAQ:GOOGL 165C options exp 10/18 that I picked up at about 1.65 that ran up just shy of 6.00 and the NASDAQ:GOOGL 170C options exp 10/18, that I'm still holding. That's enough about what I had and have in play... let's talk about what I see. That right there folks looks like a cup and handle, which ultimately gets a Coffee Is Brewing tag! The bonus green drawn lines I added, some might consider a Bull Flag is starting to be established. I see another couple weeks of good runs with this AMEX:SPY small fry playa that's part of The Mag 7!
I don't know about what y'all see but if you see something else, please drop a comment. If you like what you see, give ya boy a BOOST, a Follow, or a comment. I appreciate y'all for taking the time to look and we'll talk soon.
One More Dump Coming We’ve got an interesting setup here! Price just closed in a 4-hour supply zone, but I’m not jumping in yet. No solid buy signal has popped up, which makes me think we could see another dip. There’s a gap lurking below that still needs filling, and I have a feeling we might head down to take care of that first.
What I'm Watching:
This week, my eyes are on the 555.6 level. If we stays below this with some good momentum, it could be game on for shorts. Im looking for a BoS tomorrow after open. If we get that, I’ll be ready to pounce on a short setup.
Key Levels:
4-Hour Supply Zone: Price showing some hesitation here—could be a signal. Wait for a reversal.
GapsBelow: 2 Gaps like to get filled, and I’m thinking this might be next.
My Game Plan:
Keep an eye on price action below 555.6.
Wait for confirmation before diving into a short.
Make sure to manage risk. No trade is worth blowing up an account!
Is this the Beginning of the Flip? Just KiddingFrom what we can see it appears that we are just at the beginning of a bear move here and that might be quite an aggressive move. pay attention to the $550 level here and if we stay at that or below it, we should a steep curve to the bears in the next few days here.