The Local Line in the Sand for ES

CME_DL:MBT1!   Micro Bitcoin Futures
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close:
Settled at 5207.75, down 52.50

NQ, yesterday’s close:
Settled at 18,196.75, down 163.00

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower after a barrage of negative news. CPI for March was a touch warmer than expected, coming in roughly one-tenth higher across the board before a poor 10-year Note auction lifted yields further. The U.S. 10-year Note yield rose by 20bps from 4.36 to 4.56, and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for a rate cut in June fell to 16.9%, while July shows a 43.7% probability. Now, we brace for an ECB policy decision, PPI data at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.

This has certainly put stock index futures on their back foot. Still, on a positive note, the low in each of the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ that traded in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release was never taken out during the intraday session. For the E-mini S&P this low aligns to create a critical line in the sand with the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low at 5163.75-5176.50. We will look for construction above here to help shift tides more positively as the rest of the week unfolds.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 5203.75-5208.25***, 5214.75-5217**, 5223-5226.50***, 5030.75**, 5241-5244.25***, 5260.25***, 5272-5274.25***, 5280.75-5285**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50***

Pivot: 5191.50-5196.75

Support: 5185-5188.25**, 5163.75-5176.50***, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25***

NQ (June)

Resistance: 18,215-18,224***, 18,264**, 18,313-18,350**, 18,405-18,414***, 18,474-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709***

Pivot: 18,185

Support: 18,102-18,118*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881****

Crude Oil (May)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98

Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment, and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent.

Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 85.29**, 86.58-86.71**, 86.91-87.10***, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64***

Pivot: 86.02

Support: 84.90-85.10***, 84.55-84.69***, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***

Micro Bitcoin (April)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70,410, up 1,055

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 71,355**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110***

Pivot: 70,355-70,410

Support: 69,990-70,005**, 68,540-68,785**, 67,75-68,034***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680***

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