Hi traders, Overview: In this weekend review, I am going through a summery of my thinking process/expectations through the past week: July 16th: "Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both...
Hi traders, This is going to be a very short update, since there is not much to change on the count. I see wave X approaching its completion, most probably by end of Monday. We need more subwaves to develop to decide on precise targets for wave X peak, but I am considering the 4040-4060 range for now.
The S&P 500 broke out of its descending trendline on Tuesday and is bulling, here is why I'm playing this cautiously... It has a gap (red) that it is beginning to fill. It can easily fill the entire gap (into supply zone) and be in this bear flag territory. This could be a BIG BULL TRAP. Beware as we head into FOMC Fed Meeting next week. I would not swing long...
Hi traders, Overview: lets review our expectation published yesterday: "I am now considering wave X as a flat. Waves (I) and (II) have been completed, with wave (III) currently in play. I see wave X reaching the top of the bullish channel (blue lines) as a potential target." Update: there is not much to update as the price action followed our count...
Hi traders, Overview: first of all, my triangle count was invalidated today. However, it was not unexpected in our plan as stated on July 16th review: "please remember the most important point is to catch the daily move in the right direction, while my general perspective has been generally accurate. Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other...
Looking at the SPY S&P 500 ETF options chain today, i would buy the $360 puts with 2022-8-19 expiration date for about $2.42 premium. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Hi traders, Overview: lets review my yesterday update: "I am considering the same scenario: triangle as x of X. Leg (d) is near completion, what follows is leg (e) to the 3740 support zone. Then, we will have the rally as wave y of X." and "You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area." Update: today's price action perfectly...
Hi traders, Overview: In this weekend review, I am going through a summery of my thinking process and analysis since June 17th: June 17th: "I see us completing wave Y (second zigzag ) soon, most probably by end of today. What comes next is another wave X and then the third zigzag , Z to the actual market bottom." June 24th: "We can consider several...
The SPY chart is forming a beautiful triple top pattern, and with the up coming FED rate hike and (-) Q2 GDP data confirming a technical recession releasing July 28th. I believe that the triple top will be completed around the 29th of this month, and the SPY will drop to the bottom of the overall trend line at around $360. Also in this chart you can see that the...
Breakout attempts can happen without any triggers but when a trigger appears and coincides with market bottom, then there is an agreement and slight trading conviction that may be worth considering into the last half of the year. There is a daily wolfe wave setup that triggered on June 21 closing day at 3767.75. The projected target is calculated by extending a...
Hi traders, Overview: in my last update, we expected leg (c) of triangle being done and leg (d) started. Update: it seems we were a bit early on the expectation that leg (c) is finished. Yesterday, the market formed the bottom of leg (c) and started leg (d). I see this leg developing as a double or triple zigzag, with the first zigzag (w) completed so far.
Hi traders, Overview: lets review yesterday's update: "Right now, we are in wave (c) of x of X. The price target for wave (c) is the horizontal support area of 3744." Update: the price action matched our expectations perfectly. Today, we saw leg a and b of (d). Tomorrow, I expect leg c of (d) to develop to the 3885 zone.
Hi there, We just completed 5 waves down, now we are changing the trend short term for the upside, Price is inside a bullish triangle correction waiting for next leg up, up until 4300 possible Add at spikes down longs to the target 4300, good luck
Hi traders, Overview: yesterday, I proposed a new count/structure for wave X. Lets review: "I think wave x of X is still in process and not yet complete. It is developing as a triangle and its waves (a) and (b) have been completed." Update: today's price action increased the probability of this scenario. Right now, we are in wave (c) of x of X. The price...
Monitoring $SPY for bullish continuation over 1h 200 ema @ 388.26. If bulls can retake that level as support a sustained rally is likely over $400 on $SPY...
Hi traders, Overview: if you followed my previous updates, you know that we are considering the whole 2022 correction as a triple zigzag (WXYXZ), where waves W, X and Y has been completed and we are in second wave X at the moment. Further, since the first X wave was developed as a flat, we expected this wave X to develop as some form of a zigzag. Up to this...
Hi traders, Overview: its been a while that the price action has matched our expectations perfectly. As usual, lets review our expectation on July 7th update: "I see us in III of (a) of y of X. Potential targets for this wave: 3940-3950." Update: I see wave III of (a) of y of X complete and it fell a bit short of the target I set (3922 actual vs 3940...
Long term trend (weekly view) shows 2 previous market "resets" result in an approx. 50% drop in the S&P500 . Tech bubble popping in 2000 and Financial Crisis in 2008. So far, this latest downturn is 20% off its high. Its another 10% down from here to retest the high in Feb 2020 just before COVID-19 hit the US. That would bring the S&P500 back into the longer-term...