Hi traders,
Overview: In this weekend review, I am going through a summery of my thinking process and analysis since June 17th:
June 17th: "I see us completing wave Y (second zigzag ) soon, most probably by end of today. What comes next is another wave X and then the third zigzag , Z to the actual market bottom."
June 24th: "We can consider several different targets for this wave X such as 4170 range or 4300 range. For now, I am considering it as a zigzag development, but it can be developed in any kind of corrective structures." The reason that I was initially considering a zigzag formation for the current X wave was that the previous wave X (Jan 24-March 29) developed as a flat (sideways action).
June 28th: "We started thinking that wave X is developing as a double or triple zigzag , which is still a valid point. However, the subwaves of this X wave developed in a different way than we anticipated."
July 11th: "After careful consideration of structure, I am now considering a different scenario. I think wave x of X is still in process and not yet complete. It is developing as a triangle and its waves (a) and (b) have been completed.
Please note that there are other scenarios possible, but this is the most probable one in my opinion."
Update: I am considering the same scenario: triangle as x of X. Leg (d) is near completion, what follows is leg (e) to the 3740 support zone. Then, we will have the rally as wave y of X.
Important Note: please remember the most important point is to catch the daily move in the right direction, while my general perspective has been generally accurate. Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area.
Overview: In this weekend review, I am going through a summery of my thinking process and analysis since June 17th:
June 17th: "I see us completing wave Y (second zigzag ) soon, most probably by end of today. What comes next is another wave X and then the third zigzag , Z to the actual market bottom."
June 24th: "We can consider several different targets for this wave X such as 4170 range or 4300 range. For now, I am considering it as a zigzag development, but it can be developed in any kind of corrective structures." The reason that I was initially considering a zigzag formation for the current X wave was that the previous wave X (Jan 24-March 29) developed as a flat (sideways action).
June 28th: "We started thinking that wave X is developing as a double or triple zigzag , which is still a valid point. However, the subwaves of this X wave developed in a different way than we anticipated."
July 11th: "After careful consideration of structure, I am now considering a different scenario. I think wave x of X is still in process and not yet complete. It is developing as a triangle and its waves (a) and (b) have been completed.
Please note that there are other scenarios possible, but this is the most probable one in my opinion."
Update: I am considering the same scenario: triangle as x of X. Leg (d) is near completion, what follows is leg (e) to the 3740 support zone. Then, we will have the rally as wave y of X.
Important Note: please remember the most important point is to catch the daily move in the right direction, while my general perspective has been generally accurate. Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area.
