ETHUSD Descending Triangle Breakdown SetupThis 2H ETH/USD chart highlights a descending triangle structure forming after a prior impulse move. Price is consistently making lower highs beneath a descending trendline, while holding a horizontal support zone around 2,890–2,900, signaling growing bearish pressure.
A clear CHoCH (Change of Character) confirms the shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. Price is currently trading below key dynamic resistance and within a marked Fair Value Gap (FVG), suggesting a potential rejection area before continuation lower.
The projected downside targets are:
1st Target: ~2,815 (liquidity sweep / prior support)
2nd Target: ~2,748 (major demand zone)
Overall, the chart presents a classic bearish continuation setup, favoring downside expansion if support breaks with confirmation.
Stocks
BITF - when structure starts to matter more than headlinesBitfarms Ltd. is a publicly traded Bitcoin mining company operating large scale mining facilities across North and South America. The core business is cryptocurrency mining with a strong focus on energy efficiency, infrastructure ownership, and geographic diversification across Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay.
From a fundamental perspective as of late 2025, Bitfarms remains a growth focused company still in its investment phase. The upcoming Q4 2025 report is expected to show EPS around −0.04 USD with projected revenue near 66.45M USD. Throughout 2025, quarterly revenue has remained relatively stable in the 69–78M USD range, driven primarily by the cryptocurrency mining segment. Cash flows remain volatile and free cash flow is still negative, which is typical for miners actively expanding capacity and upgrading infrastructure. This is not a dividend or value story, but a leveraged bet on scale, efficiency, and the broader crypto market cycle.
Technically, the structure is clean and well defined. On the 4 hour chart, price formed a falling wedge that has already broken to the upside with a clear and confirmed retest. The breakout held, sellers failed to push price back inside the pattern, and momentum stabilized. All previously existing gaps have now been fully closed, reducing downside risk from unfinished price imbalances. Price is currently sitting on a strong daily support zone, while the working timeframe remains the 4 hour chart. Higher timeframe structure confirms support validity, and price action shows early accumulation behavior.
From a tactical standpoint, Bitfarms is transitioning from a corrective phase into a potential new impulse. As long as price holds the current support zone, the path opens toward the 3.91 area. If the broader structure remains intact and crypto sentiment stays constructive, continuation toward the 6.60 zone becomes technically justified. This is not a short term hype trade, but a structured continuation setup after a confirmed breakout and retest.
Sometimes the market clears all unfinished business first, and only then starts the real move. .
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 26, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this shortened holiday trading session, the S&P 500 Index achieved a significant milestone by completing the highly anticipated Outer Index Rally target of 6,945, surpassing the Key Resistance level of 6,905, which had been forecasted over a considerable period.
At this time, upon the above-mentioned target completion, the index market experienced an admirable pullback; the downside target is currently set at Mean Support 6.877.
It is, however, essential to acknowledge that, given the market's recent gains, there is a substantial likelihood that prices may exhibit an upward fluctuation near this completed target. Additionally, there remains the potential for further upward movement before the anticipated alignment with the projected downward trajectory.
FENER Stock Analysis CommentaryFENER Stock Analysis Commentary
Daily technical indicators are Positive. The stock is currently trading at the 9.54 support level. Being very close to the 21-day moving average (9.87), if the stock breaks above this average, it may have a chance to fill the price gap at 10.10.
If prices remain above this average and positive momentum continues, the stock may target higher price gaps. The highest price gap is at 11.89. If this gap is filled, the stock will also have moved above the 200-day moving average (11.36).
Resistances: 10.05 – (10.11) – 10.68 – (10.77)
Supports: 9.54 – 8.97
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BAC, Massive Descending-Triangle, Huge BREAKOUT-Expansion Setup!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of BAC. In recent times I have spotted important value stocks within the market that have the potential to emerge with a major transformational reversal and indicate main expansional determinations once the appropriate confirmations have emerged. In this case, I have analyzed BAC with the current ongoing underlying dynamics and with BAC it has to be mentioned BAC is a stock that can unfold its full potential with the current Consumer Demand to appropriately increase further. More and more supply-chain disruptions are repaired again and are recovering now, if this dynamic holds on it sets up a crucial turning in the overall market sentiment. Also, the fact that CPI has declined now for a consecutive period of time builds an important market from where stocks as I have spotted in my watchlist confirm the necessary opportunities.
When looking at my chart now, BAC is forming an important structure, firstly as it is still trading within this gigantic ascending-trend channel in which it has the main supports within the lower boundary and already bounced several times within there. Secondly, BAC has the main support levels between the 26.3 and 27.5 area as it is marked in my chart. Thirdly, BAC is already bouncing within the areas and is forming an important support base within this zone. All these factors are building a determined support base from where BAC has considerable potential to emerge with a major reversal and increase the bullish edge.
The most important formation in this whole structure is the momentous descending triangle formation. Such a formation is leading to a meaningful substantial expansion reversal in almost all of the cases. Once the whole descending triangle formation has been completed with the final setup as it is marked in my chart this is going to activate the further bullish price-action accelerations into the upper directions and emerge with the major wave-C within the whole wave-count that BAC already established. The completion of the formation also means BAC is going to activate the target zones within the 62.50 and 66.50 areas.
Now, taking all these factors into consideration, currently, there is a massive digitization boom with digitization developments increasing within recent times and the growth rates in this sector are accelerating. When BAC moves further with the potential to transform their holdings into the newly developed ecosystem this is going to have a tremendous effect on the actual bullish sentiment prevailing here, especially in combination with the fact that the Consumer Expenditures in this sector are increasing. With such a backing and increase of these factors, this is actually indicating that the price-action accelerates in pace. Once the formation has been completed the next phase targets mentioned will be active.
Thank you everybody for watching my idea about BAC. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
"With a prime perspective on stocks history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the stocks future."
VP
IBM, This is Huge, Massive BULL-Acceleration, BREAKOUT-Setup!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of IBM. In recent times I have analyzed the stock and I have detected major important historical determinations within the analytics backend that are actually indicating an epical breakout has a high potential to emerge within the next times. Not every stock within the market is bullish however with IBM there are clear signs that it already had the potential to rebound since the grievous corona market shock lows and now as digitization increases this is already building a bullish base for IBM.
Within my chart, I have detected this gigantic inverse head-shoulder formation in combination with the paramount bull flag formation, both being two bullish formations that have the potential to be major bullish trend accelerants once the breakout above the boundary has shown up this is going to activate a major double confirmation here. The trend is supported by the major underlying demand structure as well as the EMAs and the main ascending trend line. Once the final breakout above the upper boundary of the inverse head-shoulder formation in combination with the upper boundary of the bull flag has shown up this is going to accelerate the demand trend dynamics.
Taking all these factors into consideration here as digitization since the corona pullback lows have been completed increased massively this is increasing the actual digitization demand within the market and for a stock like IBM, this means that there is a main underlying demand base that is accelerating a bullish trend dynamic. Once the main breakouts as mentioned within the next times have shown up this is going to activate the minimum target of 250 and above further continuations have an increased potential once the main demand and momentum spread into the trend direction increases. Because of the importance of this setup forming here, I am keeping the stock in my current watchlist.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of IBM. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
DHR, Massive BULLISH Wedge-Formation, Major BREAKOUT Incoming!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of DHR. The stock market is in a really important condition currently as there are many interesting stock gems within the market I have spotted in my analytics backend. One of the interesting gems I recently spotted for a major opportunity on the long side of the market is DHR. This gem has major underlying potential to increase a huge breakout dynamic in the upcoming times.
When looking at my chart now DHR is bouncing several times within the major ascending channel formation, this channel formation is a substantial origin of several support bounces from where DHR could increase with bullish momentum volatility. Now, DHR is bouncing within the range for the next consecutive time and is already marking the level as a main support from where the next main bullish expansion spike is likely to emerge.
What is so important within this whole newly developed formational structure is that DHR is now also forming this momentous descending wedge-formation in which it already completed the coherent wave count especially bouncing within the lower boundary of the wedge and is now building up the further determinations. The fact that DHR already completed the wave count and bounced within the lower boundary is already nearly completing the whole descending wedge formation.
With these main underlying confirmational developments, DHR is building a massive bullish base here. Putting this into perspective this means that DHR is likely to emerge with the final wedge-breakout within the next times which is going to form the completion-setup with the breakout above the boundary as marked in my chart. Once DHR has formed this completion-setup it is going to be the main origin of the bullish wave-expansion towards the upper directions and reaching the target zones with the wave-C extension.
Thank you everybody for watching my idea about DHR. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
ADBE, Second BEAR-Fractal, SHORT-Momentum DOOMSDAY Incoming!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of ADBE. This stock has been massively battered by the major bear market decline setup in the gigantic bear channel. This stock did not exceed any new highs and did not have the potential to emerge with new bull momentum. The bears are still present within this stock and this is exactly why the bear momentum for this stock can accelerate heavily any time soon. There are several major bearish indications that are underlining the bearish scenario for the stock in an overwhelmingly precarious way.
Three reasons why the bear doomsday scenario for the stock is present, starting any time soon:
1.) Massive Liquidations: Over 250 Billion positions have been liquidated within the previous bearish doomsday market decline wave towards the downside.
2.) Weak Momentum: The momentum with which the recent meager recovery wave setup is highly fragile and is likely to turn anytime soon.
3.) Major Short-Side Positioning: A vast amount of institutional and smart money operators are positioning their selves on the short side. Always an important indication especially with retail traders positioned in the other direction.
Why shorting the stock through the upcoming second bear doomsday scenario will be the best approach in the current and upcoming market conditions:
1.) Second bearish ascending wedge fractal: The stock is going to complete exactly the same bearish ascending wedge fractal towards the downside once again.
2.) Total-Return Approach: By shorting the stock a trader has the candidature to a total-return approach, the trader is profiting when prices fall and at other times when they go up.
3.) Liquidation Acceleration: Once the whole ascending fractal has been completed it will trigger a fast-paced bearish wave making profits much faster than in an uptrend.
The most prevalent determining indications that are going to activate the upcoming bear market scenario wave for the stock:
As it is seen in my chart ADBE completed the huge bearish ascending triangle fractal exactly by moving into the upper distribution zone from where it emerged with the pullback towards the downside and set up the massive 250 Billion bearish liquidation wave towards the downside. This wave developed very fast and by positioning oneself before this huge bearish wave and completion of the fractal towards the downside a trader could make a big load of profit in the market.
Now, ADBE is still trading within the gigantic descending channel formation in which it has the most prevalent upper resistance distribution channel which has been the origin of the massive bearish waves towards the downside before and is now already setting up the upcoming 300 Billion bearish liquidation wave towards the downside which is going to activate the completion of the second ascending wedge fractal and the preceding wave C towards the bearish direction.
In the next times, the whole bearish ascending wedge fractal will be completed with the breakout below the lower boundary followed by the breakout below the 65EMA and 100EMA from where the bearish trend acceleration is going to unfold huge accelerations towards the downside and the severe bearish continuations towards the lower target zones. Especially, in this case, the market could still continue beyond this level in the bearish direction.
Upcoming Perspectives and the major underlying factors that are primarily important for consideration on the short side for the stock, the sector, and the economic field:
It has to be mentioned that an economic field with high interest rates, spreading inflation, a stagnation within the sector is setting up the determination to increase this whole bearish wave development, especially with a more bearish volume moving into the market. Also, highly determining in this case is the actual technology developments because when they reverse in an economic field this will have massive bearish effects on the stock as well.
Now, for traders it is highly important to follow such market situations with the appropriate setup within the market, especially in such times it is necessary to have the right positioning within the market because a massive bearish pressure acceleration can start anytime soon considering a huge acceleration in the inflation, a smart money operator bearish market making in which the bearish conclusion will be inevitable, an expiring futures market in which a lot of futures turn to an bearish volatility in the market. This is why traders need to position their selves before all these heavy bearish scenarios are set up.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of ADBE. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
QQQ (NQ-US100) Weekly Prediction – Outlook (21 DEC)QQQ (NQ-US100) Weekly Prediction – Outlook (21 DEC)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment turned fully bullish after the CPI data came in significantly lower than expected on Thursday. While the consensus expectation was 3.1%, the actual CPI print came at 2.7%, representing a meaningful downside surprise.
This data does not directly determine the outcome of the January FED meeting, as another CPI report will be released on January 13, 2026, which will be far more critical for the FED’s decision making process. However, the current soft inflation trend increased the probability of another lower CPI reading in January, which positively impacted risk sentiment across markets.
📈 Technical Analysis
Last week’s QQQ analysis played out perfectly. I hope you were able to capitalize on it. Price reversed precisely from the levels we anticipated following the CPI release. I am linking last week’s QQQ weekly analysis below for reference.
After the CPI data, price transitioned back into a clean bullish structure on both the daily and weekly timeframes. On Friday, QQQ rallied impulsively and closed the week with strong bullish momentum.
Overall, I think the market structure supports bullish continuation.
📌 Game Plan
I think QQQ may directly test 618.5 (Target 1) early in the week, followed by a move toward 625.75. These are the two bullish targets I expect to be reached within this week.
Price may also move toward these targets without any meaningful retracement. I plan to close one third of my call options at 618.5 and the remaining portion at 625.75 from the positions I am holding since Thursday.
If price pulls back to 611.75 or 607 before reaching 625.75 and prints strong 1H or 4H bullish candle closes, I will look to add new call option positions targeting 625.75.
In the event of a developing bearish structure, I will provide updates. However, at this stage, I do not see any clear bearish signals.
💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
Varun Beverages Rebound Setup from Strong Weekly Demand ZoneThe price is respecting a major weekly demand zone around 440–460, showing multiple rejection wicks and a positive bounce, indicating buyer accumulation. As long as the price holds above this zone, the structure favors a potential upside toward the previous supply / resistance area near 620–640. A weekly close below the support zone may invalidate the setup, turning bias cautious.
Key Levels:
Support: 440–460 zone
Resistance / Target: 620–640 zone
Risk Invalidation: Below ~415–420
Disclaimer:
This is a technical analysis view for educational purposes only not investment or trading advice. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before taking any position.
TSLA In Trouble! WARNING!🚫 Why No One Should Be Holding TSLA Right Now
Charting:
Triple Top! Rising wedge fully formed 3-wave rising wedge structure that has hooked and broken! mini double top.
I’ve been saying this for a while — no one should be long TSLA. The stock has done nothing since 2021, yet the hype machine for the boy band keeps spinning.
Ask yourself honestly: Where does Tesla actually lead anymore?
Not in EVs
Not in autonomy
Not in robots
Not in AI
Not in tech innovation
It’s become a stock story with no story left.
And when leadership is built on hype, not execution, it always ends the same way.
Never invest in toxic leadership or cult narratives.
TSLA is a real company, sure — but in fundamental terms, it’s an $8 stock wearing a $450 costume.
If you agree and sell, and it's wrong. Guess what? You will have a bunch of cash waiting to buy it. If you disagree, you won't have a bunch of cash waiting to buy lower BC YOU NEVER SOLD! You can't "BUY THE DIP" Ubless you first SELL THE RIP! It's 2nd-grade math that the boy band who will come in here hating on my call again cannot do. They will give me colorful charts, tell me about cup and handles while riding it all the way down!
They are always buying but NEVER selling. That's the trick with paper money, you can never run out of it. hahah!
Click boost, follow, comment nicely for more authentic, no BS, raw analysis. Let's get to 6,000 followers. ))
FJET - Post-IPO Structure Is Taking Shape!After its public debut, Starfighters Space ( AMEX:FJET ) delivered exactly what strong listings tend to do:
an impulsive expansion 📈, followed by a healthy correction 📉, and now the early signs of structure forming.
This phase is where real opportunities usually start to emerge.
📊 Technical Analysis
Cycles are clearly repeating on FJET.🔄
In the previous cycle, FJET printed a strong impulse move from around $6.4 to approximately $31, representing a ~400% expansion🚀 .
That rally was followed by a curved correction , after which price retested the $10 demand zone and used it as a base for continuation.
🔄Now, we are seeing the same structure forming again.
FJET is currently trading within another curved correction , gradually rotating lower toward a newly formed demand zone between $10 and $11 . Importantly, this correction is unfolding with decreasing downside momentum, suggesting absorption rather than aggressive selling.
🏹The key trigger remains the last high marked in blue around $16.
A clean break and hold above this level would confirm bullish continuation and signal the start of the next impulse move, with the potential to push FJET toward new all-time highs above $31.
⚔️As long as the $10 demand zone holds, the structure continues to favor continuation over reversal.
💡 Bigger Picture
Now that FJET is officially public📊, the narrative has shifted from anticipation to execution.
Starfighters Space is not a speculative concept, it’s an operating aerospace company:
- Flying missions out of NASA’s Kennedy Space Center👩🚀
- Operating the world’s only commercial Mach 2-capable fleet
- Backed by validation from NASA, Lockheed Martin, GE, and the U.S. Air Force🛩
Post-IPO phases like this are often where institutions begin evaluating structure, liquidity, and follow-through, not at the highs, but during consolidation.
📘 Bottom line
FJET has moved past the chaos of its debut and is now building a base.🪨
If demand continues to hold and momentum rebuilds, this consolidation could be the pause before the next expansion.
This is the phase where patience matters most.
📌 Always do your own research and speak with your financial advisor before investing.
📚 Stick to your trading plan, entry, risk management, and execution.
All Strategies Are Good, If Managed Properly!
~ Richard Nasr
Disclaimer: I have been paid $800 by CDMG, funded by Starfighters Space, to disseminate this message.
VNM (HOSE) — Monthly | Elliott Wave Outlook🔎 **VNM (HOSE) — Monthly | Elliott Wave Outlook — Completion of the corrective cycle, anticipating a new bullish phase**
• On the Monthly timeframe, VNM has completed a full **5-wave bullish cycle (green)**, topping at the **149.100** region.
• Thereafter, VNM entered a major corrective phase labeled **W–X–Y (teal)**, developing within a long-term descending channel.
• The **red wave C** within **teal wave Y** appears to have completed around the **51.400** area, signaling potential exhaustion of the corrective structure.
• From this base, VNM is forming the first impulsive advances, suggesting the market may be entering the early stage of a new bullish cycle.
• As long as price continues to hold above **51.400**, the medium- to long-term Bullish outlook remains technically valid.
📌 **Preferred scenario (Bullish – long term):**
• Monitor for accumulation opportunities in line with the emerging uptrend, prioritizing pullbacks within the next advancing wave.
⛔️ **Invalidation level:**
• A decisive break below **51.400** → bullish scenario invalidated → wave structure must be reassessed.
🧭 **Investment philosophy:**
*Cycles never repeat exactly, but the rhythm of waves always persists.*
$LIDR Setup on the daily TF .
Enter : 2.30
SL : 2.08
TP : 3.06
Possible 30% upside , ONLY if it goes above 2.30
Financial Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This is a technical perspective based on price action and market structure. Always manage risk, do your own research, and never trade solely based on a single chart or scenario.
Alibaba (BABA) - Structure Reload Before the Next Expansion?📈After a powerful impulsive leg higher, BABA is now doing exactly what strong trends are supposed to do: correct, not reverse. Price is pulling back into a key structural support, aligning perfectly with the lower bound of the rising blue channel.
⚔️This area is critical. As long as this structure holds, the market remains overall bullish, and pullbacks are viewed as opportunities rather than threats.
The plan is simple and disciplined:
🏹I’ll be looking for trend-following longs around the intersection of structure support and the rising channel, with continuation toward the upper channel and higher levels.
Only a clean breakdown below structure would invalidate this bullish scenario. Until then, the trend remains intact and patience is rewarded.
Is this consolidation the calm before the next expansion leg? 🤔📊
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Bitcoin - Can we hit the target at $91.000 This BTC technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is currently in a waiting phase. Price is trading around $87,500 and continues to move within a clearly defined range. Although a recent bounce has occurred, there is still a lack of a convincing impulse to define the next larger move. As a result, liquidity and fair value gaps remain the primary guiding factors.
4h bullish FVG
Within the bullish 4-hour FVG, a significant amount of liquidity is still present. This makes the zone around $86,000 to $86,500 an interesting area for a potential retest. As long as this liquidity has not been fully collected, there remains a strong possibility that BTC revisits this region. A deeper test of this FVG could actually provide a stronger foundation for a subsequent upward move.
4h bearish FVG
On the upside, the 4-hour bearish FVG forms a clear and strong resistance. This zone around $91,000 to $92,000 serves as the first logical target for a bounce originating from the lower range. There is substantial supply and prior rejection in this area, making a reaction highly likely. Only a convincing breakout would allow Bitcoin to shift focus toward higher price levels.
FInal thoughts
In summary, Bitcoin remains technically neutral to slightly bullish as long as the bullish 4-hour FVG continues to hold. The market appears to be gathering liquidity before committing to a direction. This BTC technical analysis emphasizes that patience is essential, as it first needs to become clear whether BTC will collect liquidity on the downside or move directly toward the bearish FVG for another test.
$MSTR #Strategy Inc.Looks like NASDAQ:MSTR is due a bounce probably in Q1. It's current Book/sh around $182. So P/B ratio is at 0.87 for a stock usually runs at a premium of 1.5x : 2.5x.
Having said that, and since the stock is trading below its book value because equity investors are panicking more than crypto ones, the stock is priced as if bitcoin is around 60k.
Short term target @ $182, while medium term could be around $270. Analysts still have a target of $486!
#AHMEDMESBAH #MSTR #Strategy
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Dec 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Dec 26, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Post-holiday, low-liquidity session: No scheduled macro data — price action driven by flows, positioning, and thin volume.
• Year-end dynamics: Window dressing, tax positioning, and reduced participation can exaggerate moves without real conviction.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
• None scheduled
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #markets #trading #holiday #yearend
NASDAQ: Bring On The Santa Rally! Short Term Buys!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Dec. 22-26th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ is reaching towards the relative equal highs, and maybe with the help of a
Santa Rally, it gets their!
I like the fact that the market closed the last two days of last week with bullish candles. I expect to see some follow through into early next week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
KRAB - A joke that became a good investmentIm pushing the joke and found something that looks like a rly good investment.
Perfect text book example of accumulation after a downward move (down move not shown on the chart) and a reaccumulation at 0.5 at 11
additional evidences are the pick volume on early 2024 and re accumulation at 11 shown by blue arrows
we are targeting 17 for the next wave up, on 2026 and maybe further up to 21 then
cheers not financial advice
The Christmas Effect: Why Markets Slow Down Before They MoveEvery December, traders ask the same question:
Will we get a Christmas rally?
But the real lesson Christmas teaches the market isn’t about rallies.
It’s about behavior.
1️⃣ Christmas Is a Liquidity Event 🎄
As the year comes to an end:
- institutions reduce exposure
- desks thin out
- volume drops
- participation becomes selective
This doesn’t make markets weak.
It makes them quiet .
And quiet markets are where structure forms.
2️⃣ Low Activity Doesn’t Mean No Opportunity
During Christmas weeks, price often:
- compresses
- ranges tightly
- respects key levels
- moves slowly
Many traders mistake this for boredom.
Professionals see it differently.
Low-volatility environments often act like wrapping paper...
they hide the move that comes after the holidays.
3️⃣ Why Breakouts After Christmas Matter More
When markets return to full participation in January, two things happen:
- liquidity comes back
- intent becomes clear
That’s why post-Christmas breakouts tend to be:
- cleaner
- more directional
- better sustained
The move doesn’t start with fireworks.
It starts with patience.
4️⃣ Christmas Rewards the Prepared Trader
While most traders look for action, experienced ones:
- mark levels
- define scenarios
- reduce overtrading
- protect capital
Christmas is not about forcing trades.
It’s about preparing for the next chapter.
Final Thought 🎄
The market doesn’t move because it’s Christmas.
It moves because participants return.
And the traders who respect the quiet season
are usually the ones best positioned when the noise comes back.
So here’s the question:
Are you trying to trade Christmas… or preparing for what comes after it?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
SPY (ES-US500-SPX) Weekly Prediction – Outlook (21 DEC)SPY (ES-US500-SPX) Weekly Prediction – Outlook (21 DEC)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment turned fully bullish after the CPI data came in significantly lower than expected on Thursday. While the expectation was 3.1%, the actual CPI print came at 2.7%, which was a meaningful downside surprise.
This data does not directly determine the outcome of the January FED meeting, as another CPI report will be released on January 13, 2026, which will be far more critical for the FED’s decision making process. However, the current soft inflation trend increased the probability of another lower CPI reading in January, which positively impacted risk sentiment across markets.
📈 Technical Analysis
In my previous SPY analysis last week, I clearly outlined the expectation of an early week pullback followed by a precise reversal level. That scenario played out exactly as anticipated.
Following the CPI release, price completed its reversal and closed the week with very strong bullish price action on Friday. In my opinion, this behavior suggests that the corrective phase has likely ended and price is now preparing for continuation to the upside.
📌 Game Plan
I think price may target the 683.5 level early in the week.
For call options and long positions, the key lower timeframe reaction zones I will be monitoring are 678.25 and 675.25.
If price rallies directly toward 683.5, I plan to sell the majority of my existing call positions around that level. However, if price first tests 678.25 or 675.25 before reaching 683.5, I am considering adding additional call exposure from those zones.
That said, my decision to enter will strongly depend on 1H and 4H candle closes. I will not enter positions in a market that simply breaks through these levels. If price tests these zones and prints strong bullish 1H or 4H closes, that is when I will begin executing call option entries.
💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.






















