Gold Rewards Timing, Not Activity🟡 Gold Rewards Timing, Not Activity ⏳✨
Gold is not a market that rewards constant action.
It rewards waiting, observation, and precise timing.
Many traders believe that trading more means earning more. In Gold, this mindset often leads to overtrading, emotional decisions, and unnecessary losses.
⏱️ 1. Gold Moves in Phases, Not Constant Trends
Gold spends a large amount of time in:
consolidation 🔄
slow accumulation 🧩
controlled ranges 📦
During these phases, price appears “boring,” but the market is actually preparing.
Trading aggressively in these conditions usually means trading noise, not opportunity.
🧠 2. Activity Feeds Emotions, Timing Controls Risk
High activity leads to:
impatience 😤
forced entries 🎯
emotional exits ❌
Good timing, on the other hand, comes from:
understanding context 🧭
waiting for price to show intent 📊
acting only when conditions align ✅
Gold punishes impatience faster than most markets.
🏦 3. Institutions Trade Less, But Trade Better
Large players do not chase every candle.
They wait for:
liquidity to build 💧
weak hands to exit 🧹
price to reach meaningful zones 📍
When timing is right, Gold often moves fast and decisively — leaving overactive traders behind.
⚡ 4. Big Gold Moves Come After Quiet Periods
Some of the strongest Gold expansions begin after:
low volatility 😴
reduced participation 📉
trader boredom 💤
This is why patience is not passive — it is strategic.
🧩 Key Insight
In Gold, doing less at the right time often outperforms doing more at the wrong time.
🎯 Final Takeaway
❌ More trades ≠ more profits
✅ Better timing = cleaner execution
🟡 Gold rewards discipline, context, and patience
Master timing, and activity will take care of itself.
Stocks
XOM: Winners of the Venezuelan Oil-Poker!Hello There,
in the past days we have witnessed spectacular events that will be historically determining for the oil market and oil company stocks. One of the largest oil reserves country Venezuela changed from a socialist government to a state under U.S. influence. Since the government changed the plan is that oil companies can take up their business again, which was not possible before. As Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves, this could mean massive changes for those companies.
One of those companies is ExxonMobil (XOM). The company already had big plans to expand their oil production before 2007. Since 1999, the Venezuelan government has begun expropriating private businesses and, in the majority, oil companies. This also led to the seizure of ExxonMobil in 2007, where thousands of millions of barrels of oil were expropriated into government control. The company has had no ability to get their reserves and continue their businesses in Venezuela since then.
As a government change happens in Venezuela, this will create major bullish foundations for XOM. The price already gained over 300% in a continuous uptrend since the corona pandemic in 2020. A potential continuation of their business will likely expand their revenues by up to 40% more. Such factors will have tremendous effects on the price action. As seen in my chart, XOM will likely complete this gigantic bull flag in the next time.
Already before this major event, XOM could complete this gigantic broadening wedge formation. The targets of this formation were already confirmed by the breakout. Now the bull flag formation forming above the upper boundary offers the next double confirmational formation. From this point of view this creates a fundamentally and technically bullish perspective for XOM. The targets marked in my chart are already active. When there are massive news in the oil industry there is a high likelihood for major price moves.
With this being said, it is great to consider the important trades upcoming.
We will watch out for the main market evolutions.
Thank you very much for watching!
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Jan 5 to Jan 9, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Jan 5 to Jan 9, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• First full week of the year: Positioning resets, fresh macro signals, and liquidity normalization after holidays.
• Growth vs labor balance: ISM, services data, and jobs will shape early 2026 rate expectations.
• Labor market focus Friday: Payrolls and wages remain the dominant macro driver for rates and equities.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Monday Jan 5
10 00 AM
• ISM Manufacturing Index Dec: 48.3 percent
• Auto Sales Dec: 15.6 million
Tuesday Jan 6
9 45 AM
• S and P Final U.S. Services PMI Dec: 52.9
Wednesday Jan 7
8 30 AM
• ADP Employment Change Dec: 45,000
10 00 AM
• ISM Services Index Dec: 52.1 percent
• Job Openings Nov: 7.7 million
• Factory Orders Oct: -1.2 percent
Thursday Jan 8
8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims Jan 3: 199,000
• U.S. Trade Deficit Oct: 58 billion
• U.S. Productivity Q3: 4.7 percent
3 00 PM
• Consumer Credit Nov: 12.4 billion
Friday Jan 9
🚩 Primary Macro Day
8 30 AM
• U.S. Employment Report Dec: 54,000
• Unemployment Rate Dec: 4.7 percent
• Hourly Wages Dec: 0.3 percent
• Hourly Wages Year over Year: 3.5 percent
• Housing Starts Oct: 1.33 million
9 45 AM
• UMich Consumer Sentiment Jan: 53.5
🧭 Trading Context
• Manufacturing still contractionary while services remain expansionary.
• Labor data Friday will set the tone for January rate expectations.
• Expect higher volatility as liquidity returns and positioning rebuilds.
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #markets #macro #jobs #ISM #Fed #trading #stocks
Richtech Robotics Inc. (RR) 1DRR broke the descending trendline in September 2025, followed by an impulsive upside move, and the current price action represents a corrective phase rather than a structural breakdown. Price is pulling back into a key support area where the 0.786 Fibonacci level aligns with diagonal support, the MA200 and the volume profile, making this zone technically strong and well-defined. On the monthly timeframe, indicators maintain a buy-side bias and moving averages support trend continuation, with no signs of a new downtrend forming. Fundamentally, the company remains in a growth phase, generating revenue across multiple robotics segments, paying no dividends and reinvesting cash flows into expansion, while revenue expectations for 2026 remain above current levels, consistent with a high-risk growth profile. The base scenario assumes support holding at the Fibo 0.786 zone with a continuation toward 4.85, 6.06 and 8.08, and invalidation only on a decisive break below support. The structure is already set, now the market decides the timing.
AVGO next moveWhite fib from 2024 hit all targets,Yellow fib for 2025.
Green box is an accumulation once exceeds 2024 last target 335 i see a distribution under 414 which is 3rd target for 2025 and form a disjoint channel
Also i see a strong selling area 360-370 last friday was a rejection.
MACD went to the negative zone could lead to area 309-240.
If selling area keep controlled by bears then can't hold for longer.
it's healthy for next target area 518-583
Constellation Brands: Navigating 2026’s Volatile SpiritsConstellation Brands (STZ) stands at a critical crossroads as it prepares for its January 7 earnings release. The beverage giant faces a complex cocktail of macroeconomic pressures and shifting consumer habits. While its Mexican beer portfolio remains a titan, the broader landscape suggests a challenging year ahead. Investors now weigh the company’s "premiumization" strategy against a cooling economy.
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds
Geopolitical friction increasingly dictates the company’s bottom line. Recent shifts in U.S. trade policy have introduced fresh tariff concerns for Mexican imports. These duties directly impact the Beer Division, which relies on cross-border production. Management recently cited these "macroeconomic headwinds" as a primary reason for lowering fiscal 2026 guidance.
Simultaneously, inflation has eroded the purchasing power of the core Hispanic consumer base. High-end beer sales for this demographic showed more pronounced declines than the general market. Furthermore, the 2026 USMCA review adds a layer of geostrategy to supply chain planning. Constellation must navigate these regulatory waters to protect its dominant import position.
Business Model: The Power Brand Pivot
Constellation has aggressively restructured its business model to prioritize high-margin "Power Brands." The company recently divested "mainstream" wine assets and Svedka vodka to focus on labels like Kim Crawford and The Prisoner. This shift aims to insulate the company from the volatile lower-end market. However, the Wine & Spirits segment still faces persistent volume declines.
The strategy relies on the resilience of "premiumization"—the idea that consumers drink "less but better." Recent data suggests this trend is slowing as households tighten their budgets. Despite this, Constellation's beer brands like Modelo Especial continue to gain dollar share. This suggests the company’s brand equity remains robust even in a downcycle.
Innovation, Technology, and Patent Analysis
Innovation is no longer just about new flavors. Constellation is leveraging high-tech solutions to optimize its sprawling operations. The company utilizes AI and machine learning for advanced demand forecasting and route optimization. These digital transformations help mitigate rising logistics and raw material costs.
* Patent Strength: Constellation holds 74 global patents, with 54 already granted.
* R&D Focus: The company operates state-of-the-art centers for fast prototyping.
* Scientific Stewardship: A major focus remains on water restoration and ag-tech to ensure supply chain sustainability.
The patent portfolio reveals a focus on packaging efficiency and product stability. These intellectual assets provide a long-term moat against competitors.
Management and Leadership Discipline
CEO Bill Newlands has maintained a disciplined approach to capital allocation. The leadership team remains committed to an investment-grade rating while returning cash to shareholders. In late 2025, the company authorized a $4 billion share repurchase program. This move signals management’s confidence in the stock’s intrinsic value despite recent volatility.
Leadership is also implementing a "leaner" organizational structure. They aim to save over $200 million by 2028 through efficiency initiatives. This proactive management style is essential as the company navigates a period of "operating deleveraging."
Earnings Watch: What to Expect on January 7
Wall Street expects a contraction in both top and bottom lines this Wednesday. Analysts project quarterly earnings of $2.66 per share, an 18% decline year-over-year. Revenue estimates sit at $2.18 billion , reflecting a double-digit percentage drop.
| Metric | Consensus Estimate | Year-Over-Year Change |
| Revenue | $2.18 Billion | -11.6% |
| EPS | $2.66 | -18.2% |
| Beer Sales | $2.01 Billion | -1.0% |
Investors will focus on the Beer Division’s resilience and the rate of Wine & Spirits contraction. Management's guidance for the remainder of 2026 will likely dictate the stock's direction for the quarter.
The Verdict: A Value Play in Transition?
Constellation Brands is currently a story of short-term pain versus long-term potential. The stock trades at an attractive price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of roughly 13.8x. This is significantly below its five-year average. While cyclical downturns and tariffs create noise, the company's "Power Brands" continue to lead the market.
Market Structure and OB + Demand ReactionNASDAQ:AAPL On the Daily timeframe, AAPL’s market structure remains clear and well-defined. Price has formed two Breaks of Structure (BOS), confirming overall bullish trend continuation. After that, a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) appeared, which led to a corrective move to the downside. During this correction, price reacted strongly from a strong Order Block + Demand zone, where Apple then formed a bullish (CHoCH) and resumed its uptrend. This price action clearly indicates that buyers are still in control of the market.
Currently, price is consolidating around the 271.00 level, which is a fresh OB + Demand zone and serves as an important decision area.
Key Levels & Expectations:
271.00 OB + Demand (Current Support)
290.00 Major Supply Previous High ATH zone
310.00 Final Bullish Target
Stop Loss: Below 260.00, under the Demand zone
Bias:
As long as price holds above 271.00, bullish momentum is expected. A bullish reaction from this zone can push price toward the 290.00 supply zone. If a daily candle closes inside or above the supply zone, the final target at 310.00 becomes active. When Order Blocks align with market structure, trend continuation carries a high probability.
Disclaimer:
This chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves high risk; always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
QQQ Weekly Outlook – Week 1 of 2026QQQ Weekly Outlook – Week 1 of 2026
Technical Look:
Price moved exactly as planned in my December 21 Weekly QQQ outlook (you can check the linked idea). The market bottomed on December 17, as anticipated in my December 14 Weekly QQQ prediction, and then started to move higher. Price reached both of my targets and began retracing from those levels. (Please refer to the linked post for details)
Currently, QQQ is retracing from the highs and appears to be seeking additional liquidity and energy before any continuation higher. This consolidation phase may take longer than initially expected.
Scenarios – Prediction:
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
I am looking for price to break and close above the 614.5 level on the 4H timeframe.
A confirmed 4H close above 614.5 would indicate that the bullish scenario is in play, and I would consider engaging on the long side.
Potential upside targets for this scenario:
621.75 – 629.5
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
If price fails to break above 614.5, I would consider that QQQ is shifting into a bearish flow and seeking lower prices. In that case, I would look to engage on the short side.
Downside targets for this scenario:
610 – 606.25 – 600 – 588.5
The 588.5 level represents the most extended bearish scenario. If price breaks 600 aggressively , I would then expect a move toward 588.5.
Position Management Notes:
Each target level may trigger significant pullbacks or reversals. Personally, I take partial profits at these levels and keep the remaining position open toward the next targets, while trailing the stop loss to breakeven. This is how I manage my positions.
I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
SPY Weekly Outlook – Week 1 of 2026SPY Weekly Outlook – Week 1 of 2026
Technical Look:
Price moved exactly as planned in my December 21 Weekly SPY outlook (you can check the linked idea). The market bottomed on December 17, which was also anticipated in my December 14 Weekly SPY prediction. After that, price pushed into all time highs and got rejected from those levels.
Currently, SPY is retracing from the highs and appears to be seeking additional liquidity and energy before any continuation higher. This consolidation phase may take longer than initially expected.
Scenarios – Prediction:
I am tracking two main scenarios for SPY during January 5–9.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
The 684 level is marked as an options put wall. I will be closely watching for a 4H close above this level.
A confirmed 4H close above 684 would indicate that the bullish scenario is in play, and I would look to engage on the long side.
Potential upside targets for this scenario:
686.75 – 689 – 691.75
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
If price fails to break above 684 and starts declining, I would consider that SPY is seeking lower prices.
Downside targets in this scenario:
678.75 – 673 – 669.25
If price breaks 678.75 aggressively , I would then consider lower targets to be in play. Otherwise, the 678.75 level could act as a strong bounce zone for a potential upside reaction.
Position Management Notes:
Each target level may cause significant pullbacks or reversals. Personally, I take partial profits at these levels and keep the remaining position open toward the next targets, while trailing the stop loss to breakeven. This is how I manage my positions.
I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Breakout Trade
National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) provides electronic infrastructure for dematerialization of securities and facilitates electronic settlement of trades in Indian Securities Market.
NSDL forms a triple bottom breakout chart pattern on daily time frame at around 1040 price acting as strong support and is all set to give breakout at 1086 price.
Near term possible targets will be 1200 and 1400.
Down to Support ~$90Since 2024, each time the 10 day crossed the 20 day (which just happened), we had already dropped and bounced off the 50 day.
This has not happened this time. Aka = this time will likely be different.
I expect we will go down to the 50 day ~$90, if the larger bulltrend is intact, this will just be a pullback. If not, this will just be a speedbump where shorts are closed and this price rallies back up to the 20 before continuing downward.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 2, 2026Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated New Year's trading session, the S&P 500 Index is currently continuing to demonstrate an In Force Retracement sentiment. The Index has established a new Mean Support level at 6,833, and it is anticipated that it will persist in its downward trajectory towards the subsequent Mean Support level at 6,877.
It is imperative to recognize that, given the conditions of the market, there exists a considerable probability of a Dead-Cat rebound. This rebound may prompt a retest of the completed Outer Index Rally at 6,945, via the Key Resistance identified at 6,932.
Additionally, it is expected that the prevailing downward sentiment will remain or may even deepen, and intermediate bearish momentum is likely to persist, particularly as the above-named target levels realign with the anticipated market trajectory.
Micron Technology - The bullrun will end today!🏒Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) is now starting a correction:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, Micron Technology rallied an expected +350%. However, with the current retest of major resistance, it is quite likely that this bullrun will end soon. Just wait for sufficient bearish confirmation after this long rally.
📝Levels to watch:
$350
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
FJET - Gaps, Demand & the Next Decision Point!📊Markets don’t move randomly... they react to unfinished business.
📈After the explosive post-listing move , Starfighters Space AMEX:FJET left a clear price gap above ($23 - $24 area), followed by a controlled pullback into a well-defined demand zone around the $8 – $9 area.
Since then, price has been compressing inside a descending channel, reflecting short-term bearish pressure rather than structural weakness.
What matters now is context 👇
This pullback is happening after an impulse.
📈 What's Next?
FJET is approaching the lower end of the falling channel while sitting on higher-timeframe demand.
This creates a classic decision zone:
– Hold demand → structure shifts bullish
– Lose demand → deeper correction before continuation
A critical factor will be how price reacts near the lower channel boundary. A reclaim of structure would open the door for a rotation higher, with the gap zone above acting as a price magnet. 🧲
A sustained break above the falling channel (marked in red) would signal a transition in momentum from bearish to bullish.📉📈
💡 Why This Matters
Gaps often act like unfinished chapters in the market. When structure stabilizes, price tends to revisit them, not because of hope, but because of order flow mechanics.
The plan is to wait for price confirmation and then follow the trend.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and speak with your financial advisor before investing.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~ Richard Nasr
Disclaimer: I have been paid $1,000 by CDMG, funded by Starfighters Space, to disseminate this message.
Godrej Properties | Bulls Reloading !The stock is sitting right on a major demand zone around ₹1,950–₹1,880, the same area where price has reacted earlier. Buyers have again stepped in from this zone, which suggests that the level is still being protected.
If the price holds this base and we get a sustained weekly close above ₹2,120–₹2,150, it may confirm a short-term trend reversal. From there, the first meaningful hurdle comes near ₹2,500–₹2,520 — this is an important supply zone.
A clean breakout above ₹2,503 could open the way toward
→ ₹2,850–₹2,900
→ and eventually the major swing zone near ₹3,350–₹3,413.
On the other hand, if the price slips below ₹1,880 (weekly close), the demand zone may fail and the downside could extend toward ₹1,750 / ₹1,680.
For now, the bias remains base-building bullish above support, but confirmation still depends on how price behaves in the coming weeks.
My Trading View
Above support → buyers active
Confirmation only after ₹2,150+ weekly close
Best entries come on retest with a higher low
Stop must stay below ₹1,880 if trading the zone
Disclaimer
This is only a technical chart observation for educational purposes.
GOOGL: Triangle Breakout, Set-Up Confirmation, Target Zone.Hello There,
welcome to my new analysis about GOOGL. Recently I spotted an important pattern and setup. As the new year started, new patterns within the prices are unfolding. Therefore, it is interesting to watch which titles in the market are likely to yield appropriate returns and complete crucial trading setups. Looking at the 2-hour timeframe, the key setup of GOOGL caught my attention.
When looking at my chart, there is this major triangle formation that offers a substantial price range in which GOOGL is building up the whole time. Within this zone, the price action found several supports. One of them being the lower boundary of the massive triangle formation. Another being the uptrend line. Within these zones, GOOGL already bounced several times.
What are also important indicators are the 50-EMA and the 20-EMA. As marked in blue and green in my chart, these EMAs are substantial supports off which GOOGL has already bounced several times. Above these main supports, GOOGL is now continuing to form a crucial next formation. This formation is actually a bull-flag formation completing above the upper boundary of the zones.
Also, the volume profile seen on the right of my chart, measuring volume by price, offers a fundamental support. With the price action bouncing further from these levels, a continuation of the local trend is likely. Especially when the bull flag confirms the next, this will offer a central setup on the long side as it is marked. A breakout above the upper boundary of the bull flag will determine a conservative entry.
With this being said, it is great to consider the important trades upcoming.
We will watch out for the main market evolutions.
Thank you very much for watching!
IREDA — Bounce from Long-Term Demand Zone !Price has taken support near the 120–130 demand zone (previous base + accumulation area).
Current candle shows a bullish rejection wick + momentum bounce from support.
Structure indicates base formation after a prolonged correction, improving risk-reward for positional swing.
Sustaining above 145–150 will strengthen upside momentum.
Key Levels
Major Support Zone: 120–130
Immediate Support: 140 / 135
Upside Levels:
First resistance — 175–180
Next supply zone — ≈ 210–215
Extended resistance — ≈ 230–235
Invalidation / Risk Level
Breakdown & weekly close below 130 may extend downside toward 115–110.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and is not a buy/sell recommendation
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Jan 2, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Jan 2, 2026 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• First trading day of the year: Thin liquidity + positioning resets can exaggerate moves.
• Manufacturing tone check: PMI helps frame growth momentum heading into the first full trading week of 2026.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
9 45 AM
• S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 51.7
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #PMI #markets #trading #stocks #macro
Happy New Year S&P 500: Why I am BULLISH on Stocks for 2026.Hello There,
in the recent year, the S&P 500 has formed historical volatilities to the upside and downside while still sustaining the underlying trend. Several important factors drove the major price moves seen in the past year. Considering these fundamentals, I have detected important fundamental and technical signs that should be considered when preparing potential market participation for 2026.
In 2025, the major price moves that were recorded in the price actions resulted from crucial fiscal decisions. The main decline right at the beginning of the year due to tariff increases resulted in a drop of over -20% for the index. While this seemed to be a doomsday scenario for the whole market and a potential setup of a year-long bear market, the markets could quickly recover again and form several new highs.
The major price move that resulted from the market recovery gave the implication that the bull market won't be over so far, as prices reached far beyond the previous all-time high already. What is important here is that this price move was also supported by increased bullish volume, making it a fundamentally strong price action that is also likely to continue within 2026.
FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE
There are also several fundamental signs that are main implications for my consideration of a huge bull market continuation in 2026. These factors determine the underlying bullishness of the market from an economic perspective, supporting also the technical factors seen in my chart. There I am pointing out the most determining fundamental factors to consider here.
___________________________________________
Sustained GDP Growth and All-Time-High Demand
___________________________________________
Considering the important macroeconomic dynamics of the underlying fundamentals. The year 2025 has shown great increases within the U.S. GDP, continuing with the main uptrend of GDP growth. This has been supported by subsequent interest rate decreases. It is important to note here that the U.S. volume share of the S&P 500 accounts for almost 72% of the total volume of the index, making the U.S. volume entering from the economy the most important factor of price growth.
Also, the expectations of interest rate drops as well as inflation declines create a main bullish environment, which is offering an underlying bullishness from a fundamental perspective. With decreasing inflationary pressures, the interest rates are also likely to decrease, creating a dynamic that is supporting further investments into the index. Considering the forecasts, this will create a bullish dynamic, especially in Q2 and Q3, when the forecasted expectations turn out in reality.
____________________________
Nominal Interest Rate Decreases
____________________________
The decreasing nominal interest rates are a strong sign of the market turning more and more bullish. In the past year, the FED lowered the interest rates subsequently to lower levels. Creating a strong demand for money and investments in the market. These drivers were also particularly important for the price action holding to the upside and not declining more after the major drop at the beginning of the year.
It is highly likely that interest rates will decline further in 2026, creating further bullish underlying fundamental factors, increasing money demand and investment. This adds to the overall bullish expectations and considerations of forecasts for 2026. It will also be an interesting indication to follow for Q1 and Q2 and see how the FED considers further rate declines.
___________________________________________
An Bullish Sentiment Determined by the VIX Index
___________________________________________
This is an indicator especially important for the S&P 500 Index. It measures the market expectations of volatility derived from options prices. A low VIX index signals a bullish sentiment with a high risk tolerance, and firms are likely to invest more. A high VIX index signals a bearish sentiment with a high risk aversion, and the firms are not likely to invest more than necessary.
Throughout the year of 2025, the index was, the vast majority of the time, below the 15 threshold. With an average VIX of 15, this is a very bullish base that has built up in the year 2025. Especially in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, the index kept several times below the 15 threshold. This dynamic signals firms and investors willingness to invest more in the market and get ready for further bullish moves in 2026.
TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE
Major Historical Ascending Trend Channel
As seen in my chart, the S&P 500 index is still trading within this huge and sustained uptrend channel. Within this channel, the index already bounced several times in this massively important and crucial lower bullish accumulation zone, especially followed by many famous investors pointing out supporting facts about the bullish dynamics. This channel is not yet broken, and the index already had the ability to visit the middle line of the channel, making it highly likely that the index will also bounce till the upper boundary of the channel again.
Bollinger Bands Tightening and Breakout Expectations
The Bollinger Bands indication is very interesting to consider. Because this constellation is now actually tightening above the middle line of the historical accelerating channel. Also, the index is bouncing above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. As the bands tighten, they get ready for a major breakout and expansion of the bands towards the upside. What is also important here is that they follow the overall uptrend and EMA structure. An upthrust within this Bollinger Band dynamic is very likely to occur.
Substantial and Sustained Fibonacci Extensions
The index is still trading within a major Fibonacci extension. With the major waves 1 and 2 already completed. Now the index moves forward with expanding the wave 3 towards the upside. Within this dynamic, it is very interesting to see that the first 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the first wave has already been reached. After this level is reached, the next target is the next higher Fibonacci level of 2.618. As the uptrend is still going on and the Fibonacci extension is holding, this is the next reasonable target. The target also matches with the huge ascending uptrend.
Strong Volume Supporting Bounces in the Channel
The bounces from the lower boundary of the uptrend channel were severely supported by major volume spikes. This is very important in an uptrend; the volume spikes have to correspondingly support the uptrend dynamics. The spikes were always conducted when a major bottom and the following uptrend bounce had been formed. As the substantial volume is holding on, it will be an important driver for further bullish price action throughout the year. Therefore, especially if volume should increase in the next term, it will offer additional support.
EMA-Support and Overall Trend Dynamics
The whole uptrend is still holding above the whole main EMA structure. Also greatly to consider here is that the EMA bounce occurred in March 2023, as also the market was able to recover from the inherent dynamic. The trend is still holding above the EMAs, and if a pullback should occur, the EMAs will be strong supports, likely holding the trend to the upside. Therefore, there are two possible scenarios that are most likely. The first is the uptrend just goes on, and the second is a pullback into support zones happens from where a stabilizing bullish price action can establish the further bullish uptrend.
CONCLUSION AND PROJECTIONS
Taking all of these important considerations into account, Q1 will be very decisive. Especially in price action, Q1 will set up how the rest of the year will move forward in price action. Therefore, there are two main scenarios that should be highly necessarily considered. The first is the uptrend dynamic as it currently established just goes on till the upper target zones are reached. The second is the price action firstly pulling back into the support zones determined by EMA, the Bollinger Bands, the bullish accumulation channel, and the volume profile. Then it will also be important how the macroeconomic indications pointed out will behave. If the expected forecasts show up as mentioned, it will highly likely be a major boost for the bullish price action. In any case, it will be highly determining and interesting to see the S&P 500 index evolve.
With this being said, it is great to see an increased support.
We will watch out for the important market evolutions.
Thank you very much for watching!
Whats in store for 2026?Predicting that, the stock market will move in any direction other than upwards has historically proven to be a fool's errand.
Typically, it's advisable to maintain a long position of America and its robust capital markets until the signs of a recession truly start to emerge.
However, last year's forecast of "7k plus" did indeed come to fruition, albeit by the narrowest of margins (just 11 points on the futures).
Now, let’s consider a potential scenario for 2026, shall we?
Following a stagnant fourth quarter and a lackluster conclusion to the last few trading days of 2025, I suspect that the initial half pf the year may be weaker than the prevailing consensus suggests.
Will we experience a technical bear market with a -20% decline?
Or will policymakers intervene at -19%, as they have done so many times in the past? :)
Regardless of how deep the pullback may be or how quickly the potential softness at the start of the year could occur...
It might actually present another fantastic buying opportunity that paves the way for a strong finish to the roaring twenties, with the SPX trading well above 10,000.
(indeed my SPX chart points towards 17,000 by 2032)
Could the bottom align with a possible four-year cycle low for BTC? That would be quite synchronistic and feasible, especially since crypto has become so intertwined with DJT's policies and serves as a performance metric that this administration is judged on whether praised or criticised for.
Have conviction but remain nimble would be my overriding message.
#GOLD - RALLY STILL FAR FROM THE END Briefly — I expect Gold to keep growing in the next couple of years, we are far from the end of the rally. Three reasons why:
- Safe Haven. Gold (and other metals which was recently proved) still act as the main safe heaven for retail, institutionals, banks (including CBs) . The ongoing geopolitical tensions around the world make them allocating more funds to $XAU.
- Stocks. The stock market is extremely overheated (a quick look at the SP:SPX 1Y chart makes it obvious) . No significant correction since 2008, the 2022 pullback was only a bare minimum and clearly insufficient. RSI is now near critical overbought levels. Most likely we will see new highs on stocks in 2026 — but that will mark the cycle top. Add an AI bubble that is about to pop. The puzzle fits together. Rotation from stocks to metals has already begun.
- Crypto. The 10/10/25 crash was dramatic for crypto and its future. It pushed Bitcoin from "high risk" into "extreme risk" bracket. Altcoins are out of any measurement scale with some of them dumping -90% in one day. Crypto market needs huge reforms, one day I will cover that topic in a separate post. For now: Gold > Bitcoin. Sadly.
💰 Add up a weak TVC:DXY and you will clearly see that there are not many places where investors can allocate their money other than metals, primary $XAU.
My forecast: we will see TVC:XAU near $10,000 mark before 2029.
STRATEGY Is this a 2000 Dotcom crash all over?Strategy (MSTR) has been on a strong sell-off since its November 2024 All Time High (ATH). A little more than 1 year of downtrend is classified as a Bear Cycle and it may be no coincidence that this ATH was priced marginally above Strategy's previous ATH of March 2000.
That was at the peak of the infamous Dotcom Bubble and its subsequent collapse. So are we having a 2000 crash all over again? Well, with Strategy's core business being exclusively Bitcoin related, we are poised to have a big one (since it follows BTC's Cycle to a certain extent) but not just as enormous as 2000's, which exceeded -99%, dropping the company to the brink of extinction.
Technically, we can have a correction of -90% though, which is the decline that the previous Bear Cycle in 2022 suffered. After all the dominant multi-decade pattern since the Dotcom bottom, has been a Channel Up, with the recent ATH testing its top and the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) marking its Lows, hence the best buy opportunities in the last 10 years.
As a result, our long-term Target on MSTR remains $60.00, which would be a -90% correction from the Top, while also making direct contact with the 1M MA200. P.S. Notice also the similarities between the 1M RSI sequences.
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KFin Technologies — Weekly Chart ANALYSISStock is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle near the apex.
Strong demand zone: ₹880 – ₹820.
As long as price stays above this zone, structure remains positive.
Bullish Trigger
Weekly close above ₹1,120 – ₹1,140
Possible upside levels → ₹1,220 → ₹1,320 → ₹1,420
Bearish Trigger
Breakdown below ₹980
Stock may retest ₹900 → ₹850 → ₹820
Bias
Mildly bullish while above ₹900–₹880
Wait for clear breakout / retest confirmation
Disclaimer
This is a technical analysis view for educational purposes only, not investment advice.






















