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BTCUSD: Breakout played out, focus on EMA retestOverview Yesterday’s Breakout Plan played out correctly, with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD continuing its bullish move. The market remains in an uptrend, with no clear signs of reversal. However, price is currently trading far above the EMA, so it’s not ideal to chase entries here. Trading Plan for Today Primary Scenario: Wait for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD to retrace closer to the EMA and form a momentum consolidation zone. If confirmation appears (e.g. breakout through the short-term trendline), consider long entries in line with the trend. Alternative Scenario: If BTC closes below the EMA with strong bearish momentum, a deeper correction is possible. In this case, stay cautious and wait for a new structure to form before re-entering. You can refer to my previous analysis here: Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨ Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
BTC consolidates after a significant price spikeBITSTAMP:BTCUSD price has had a slight correction after the previous increase. Yesterday, the price broke the trendline and the EMA approached, creating a momentum accumulation zone before a strong break - as planned to buy. Currently, BTC is correcting after the increase, just cutting down the EMA, showing that buying power is weakening, the short-term trend may turn down. There is no clear signal to enter the order. Continue to observe the price reaction around the EMA and wait for a clear setup before taking action. You can refer to my previous analysis here: Please like and comment to support our traders. Your feedback motivates us to produce more analysis in the future 🙏✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
BTCUSD: Weekly reviewThis week, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD recorded a strong rally, moving from 109,900 → 120,800, equivalent to about +10,900 USD (+9.9%). After last week’s sharp decline, the market clearly reversed into an uptrend as price broke out and held firmly above the EMA. Today is Friday, and the market may experience strong volatility due to the Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) report – an event that often has a major impact on price movement and trading strategies during the day. Key Setups of the Week 1. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Review – September 29 After a sharp drop, BTC rebounded, broke out of the range, and held above the EMA. This was an early signal confirming a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. 2. BTC Review – September 30 After breaking out of the larger range and rallying strongly, the plan was to wait for a pullback toward the EMA. Price formed a diagonal wave and gave confirmation signals through DD (Double Doji) / FB (First Breakout). The entry was triggered, and the market rallied nicely, hitting the target as expected. 3. BTC Review – October 1 After the rally, BTC retraced and closed below the EMA. At this point, the short-term trend was unclear → staying out and waiting for more market data to avoid unnecessary risk. 4. BTC Review – October 2 On the following day, price recovered and consolidated right at the upper boundary of the range. EMA pressed tightly, creating a momentum compression zone and setting up for the next breakout. The plan was to wait for RB/ARB confirmation, then Buy following the breakout. This setup worked out successfully, BTC broke out strongly and continued to hit the target. 5. BTC Review – October 3 The main bullish trend continued, showing no signs of weakness. The plan: wait for a pullback to the EMA, confirm a FB/SB (Second Breakout) signal, then Buy in line with the uptrend. The scenario played out accurately, delivering another profitable setup. Conclusion Trend of the week: Clearly bullish. Buy setups around EMA and breakout strategies performed effectively, resulting in a consistent winning streak. Caution for today: With NFP on the schedule, unusual volatility may occur. Traders should manage risk carefully and patiently wait for clear confirmation signals before entering the market. You can refer to my previous analysis here: Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨ Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
$BTC – Flip Zones Driving 4H StructureCRYPTOCAP:BTC flipped bullish after reclaiming the blue demand, then turned bearish at the red supply. We’re now pulling back from resistance, and the next clean setup likely forms on a retest of the blue zone. 🔑 Key zones Support (blue) ~$111k area — former base of the last impulse. Resistance (red) ~$114.5k–$115k — where sellers capped the rally. 🔎 Confluence Prior bearish rejection at red + bullish reaction at blue. Clear HH/HL structure only resumes if price holds blue and pushes back above red. 📊 Scenarios Bullish 📈 Pull back into $111k (blue), print higher-low / bullish candle, then continuation toward $115k → $117k. Bearish 📉 Lose the blue zone with a strong 4H close → open room for a deeper dip before buyers try again. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
AUDJPY — Buy the Retest?AUDJPY remains overall bullish inside a rising channel. Price is hovering above a 96.0–96.5 support zone, which previously acted as resistance and now aligns with the channel’s lower boundary, a solid confluence area. 🔑 Key levels Support: 96.0–96.5 (zone to watch for bullish rejection) Resistance: 98.5 then 100.0 (round number / channel upper band) 📊 Scenarios Bullish 📈 If price retests 96.0–96.5 and prints confirmation (higher low / bullish candle), I’ll look for longs toward 98.5 → 100.0. Bearish 📉 A daily close below 96.0 would invalidate the setup and open room toward the next liquidity pocket near the channel low. What’s your plan here => wait for the retest into 96s, or trade the continuation if momentum kicks in first? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
3
EURUSD – Bears Still in Control!EURUSD has been overall bearish, trading within a clear descending channel. After rejecting the 1.1950s, price broke structure and shifted momentum to the downside. At the moment, price is retesting a strong structure zone that aligns with the upper red trendline of the channel. This area acts as a confluence resistance. As long as EURUSD trades below this zone, the bears remain in control. I’ll be looking for short opportunities from here with the next bearish impulse in mind. If this structure is broken upward, only then would the short-term bias start to shift. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down. Do you think EURUSD will respect this resistance, or could we see a breakout to reverse the trend? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Short
by TheSignalyst
7
BTC escapes consolidation, shifting into an uptrend Price has broken out of the sideway range 108,500 – 109,800, shifting from bearish to bullish. After the BB (Block Breakout), BTC surged to 112,500 – 113,000 before consolidating. Currently, price is trading far from the EMA (around 111,100), implying a possible pullback. Strategy: Wait for price to retrace toward EMA (111,000 – 111,200) or consolidate in this zone. If patterns such as DD (Double Doji) or FB (First Breakout) form within 111,000 – 111,500, consider long entries. Please like and comment to support our traders. Your feedback motivates us to produce more analysis in the future 🙏✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
EUR/USD Rejected Hard at 1.19 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro FX: Non-commercials slightly reduced longs (-789) but increased shorts significantly (+2,625). Commercials added both longs (+4,978) and shorts (+3,375), signaling hedging but with a defensive bias. → Net positioning remains positive on the Euro, but short pressure is increasing. USD Index: Non-commercial longs rose (+1,541), while shorts decreased (-1,009). → USD strengthened by large speculators. 📌 Interpretation: Imbalance in favor of the Dollar, with the market turning more cautious on the Euro. FX Sentiment 55% short EUR/USD vs 45% long. 📌 Retail is slightly skewed short → often contrarian → could support limited upside, but not extreme. Seasonality September is historically weak for EUR/USD (-0.01/-0.012 over 5–10 years). October is also negative, while November–December historically show rebounds. 📌 Short-term seasonal bias (September–October) remains bearish. Price Action Strong rejection from the 1.1850–1.1900 supply zone. Currently testing the 1.1740 area. Bearish structure with probable downside targets at demand zones: 1.1650 → first key level. 1.1550 → deeper bearish extension if USD strength persists. Only a stable recovery above 1.1820 would invalidate the bearish scenario. Trading Outlook Main Bias: Bearish in the short term (Sep–Oct), supported by COT (USD strength), negative seasonality, and technical rejection. Contrarian Risk: Slight retail shorts could trigger minor rebounds, but overall setup favors selling rallies.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
BTC 1H: Selling pressure remains dominant.1. Trend Context The short-term structure remains bearish, with the price trading below the EMA. After breaking through the 111,200 – 112,000 zone, the market is forming a small correction. 2. Key Levels Nearest Resistance: 110,700 – 111,800. Important zone to watch during this correction. Main Support (Demand Zone): 108,000 – 108,500. Next target if the downtrend continues. 3. Scenario Key Scenario : Currently, an uptrend line has been formed, indicating a slight recovery after the previous sharp decline. Wait for the EMA to move closer to the price and form a momentum accumulation zone, after which a first breakout through the uptrend line will appear. Alternative scenario : If BTC sustains recovery to 110,700, sell-off at this level could be considered. Please like and comment to support our traders. Your feedback motivates us to produce more analysis in the future 🙏✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
XAUUSD - MARKET CONTEXT I SEP/26/2025- Gold is still consolidating inside a triangle pattern with two trendlines: H1 downtrend (dynamic resistance) and H1 uptrend (dynamic support). - Current price is 3746, right at the POC + Reject Zone, showing a balance between supply and demand. Key technical levels: VaH Zone: 3751–3753 POC Zone: 3740 VaL Zone: 3731 Deep Demand Zone: 3717–3720 🟢 SCENARIO 1 – BUY AT SUPPORT (PREFERRED WITH UPTREND HOLDING) Entry conditions: Price holds above H1 uptrend line. Rejection candles (Pinbar, Engulfing) appear at 3731–3740 (POC + VaL zone). Rationale: Confluence of POC + VaL → strong liquidity. H1 structure still forming Higher Lows → favoring trend-following buys. 🎯 Entry: 3731–3740 🛑 SL: Below 3720 ✅ TP1: 3751 (VaH Zone) ✅ TP2: 3775 (Old High) 🔴 SCENARIO 2 – SHORT-TERM SELL FROM RESISTANCE Entry conditions: Price retests 3751–3755 (VaH Zone) but fails to break out. Strong rejection signal forms. Rationale: VaH zone + dynamic resistance confluence. If buying momentum weakens, this level could trap breakout buyers. 🎯 Entry: 3751–3755 🛑 SL: Above 3762 ✅ TP1: 3740 (POC) ✅ TP2: 3731 (VaL Zone) ⚠️ SCENARIO 3 – WAIT FOR BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION BUY breakout: If price clears 3775 with strong volume → new bullish leg opens, target 3790–3800. SELL breakdown: If price breaks 3731 → potential retest of Demand Zone 3717 → 3700. 📌 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY Main priority: BUY at support 3731–3740 in line with the uptrend. Only consider short-term SELL if clear rejection appears at 3751–3755. If market stays in tight range, stay out and wait for confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderX_68
BTC – Momentum Returns!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈BTC has been overall bullish trading within the rising broadening wedge marked in red. This week, BTC has been retesting the lower bound of the wedge. Moreover, the orange zone is a strong structure and previous ATH. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the lower red trendline and orange structure. 📚 As per my trading style: As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for trend-following bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
GBPCHF - Oversold at Demand: Longs on Confirmation?GBPCHF has been drifting lower on the 4H inside a falling channel. Price is now tapping a multi-touch demand zone around 1.066–1.070, right at the channel’s lower bound—classic confluence for a bounce. As long as this base holds, I’ll look for reversal confirmation (wick rejections/HH-HL) to ride a rotation toward 1.075 first, then 1.082–1.085 near the channel midline 📈. A clean 4H close below 1.064 would invalidate the idea and expose 1.060–1.058 next. What’s your move => buy the dip at demand, or wait for a break of the red channel before joining? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
4
BTCUSD on the 30m timeframe1. Trend Context BTCUSD on the 30m timeframe remains in a clear downtrend, forming consistent Lower Highs and Lower Lows. 2. Key Zones SZ (Supply Zone): 114,250 – 114,750. Origin of the strong selloff, major resistance if price retraces upward. SR (Structure Reversal): 113,000 – 113,250. Previously marked a short-term structural shift, now likely to act as dynamic resistance. DZ (Demand Zone): 111,200 – 111,750. Price is currently testing this zone, which serves as short-term support. 3. Trading Scenarios If DZ holds, a short-term bounce toward SR is possible. If price rejects at SR, it offers a favorable short setup in line with the prevailing downtrend. If DZ breaks, the downtrend may extend with a target around 110,000 or lower. Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
USDJPY - Red Low or Orange Resistance: Your Trigger Map!USDJPY squeezed off 146.0 and is testing the 148.8–149.2 orange resistance on the 4H while momentum cools. Here’s the plan 🔑 If the last low in red is broken downward, the bears take over, and I’ll look for 147.2 first, then the 146.0 support zone. If the orange resistance is broken upward and holds, I’ll expect continuation toward the upper supply at 150.7–151.0 (with 150.0 as a waypoint). What’s your move => fade a failure at the orange band, or buy a clean break and hold into 150s? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
4
BTCUSD: Downtrend remains dominant after EMA rejection(1h chart)Yesterday, the price followed the bearish scenario as it was rejected at the EMA and resistance zone. Trend: The short-term downtrend remains intact, with the EMA sloping downward. Nearest support: 111,800 – 112,000. A break below could extend the move toward 110,000 – 109,000. Nearest resistance: 113,500 – 113,800. A breakout here would invalidate the bearish outlook . 📌 Outlook for today : Bearish continuation is the primary scenario. Wait for a candle close below support for confirmation. Alternatively, if price breaks strongly above the EMA Ribbon, a short-term corrective rally may develop. Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
MSTR - Trendline Support vs. Supply Cap!MSTR has been overall bullish on the daily, respecting a rising trendline since last year. Price is coiling right beneath the 330–350 supply band after multiple rejections. This area is key 🔑. It overlaps prior supply and the rising trendline—clean confluence. If bulls defend the trendline and we see a clean daily close above 350, momentum could extend toward 400 first, then 470–520 inside the broader range 🚀. If the trendline gives way, I’ll look for a deeper dip toward 260–240 demand before bulls try again. Until then, structure favors the upside while the line holds. What’s your plan => buy strength above 350 or wait for a retest on the trendline first? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by TheSignalyst
1
GBP/USD Setup: Breakout or Fakeout at 1.3600 Key Level?🔎 Technical Analysis On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3550 after rejecting the dynamic support of the ascending channel. The key resistance lies at 1.3600. A daily close above this level could open the way towards 1.3700–1.3750, a strong supply zone. RSI remains in consolidation, far from extremes, suggesting more room for upside. Scenarios: Bullish: Break above 1.3600 → target 1.3700–1.3750. Bearish: Rejection below 1.3500 → retracement to 1.3400, extension to 1.3280. 📊 COT Report USD Index (CFTC 09/09/2025): Non-commercials added +5.5K longs and +6K shorts, net short remains dominant → slightly weak USD bias. British Pound: Non-commercials trimmed longs (-1.2K) and shorts (-748), but commercials added massive longs (+66K) → long-term bullish hedging on GBP. 👉 Overall: GBP supported, USD weak → bullish bias for GBP/USD. 📅 Seasonality September historically shows a neutral/slightly bearish tendency for GBP/USD (-0.3% average over 20 years). The 2-year model suggests a mid-September drawdown followed by recovery in October. 👉 Mixed bias: short-term weakness possible, but October seasonality favors GBP strength. 🧠 Retail Sentiment 63% short vs 37% long. Retail is heavily short – a classic contrarian signal, pointing towards a possible upside liquidity grab above 1.3600–1.3700. 📌 Trading Plan Primary bias: Bullish above 1.3500 targeting 1.3700–1.3750. Confirmations: COT favors GBP, retail short, bullish technical structure. Risks: September seasonality slightly bearish → potential pullback to 1.3450 before resuming higher.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/USD Breakout Incoming? COT & Sentiment Point to 1.1850COT Report (09/09/2025) EUR (Euro FX CME): Non-Commercials increased longs (+2,389) and reduced shorts (-3,696) → bullish bias. USD (US Dollar Index): Non-Commercials remain net short (24,750 vs 19,192 longs). Slightly bearish bias on the dollar. 👉 The combination suggests a favorable context for Euro strength against USD. 📊 Seasonality September is historically flat or slightly negative for EUR/USD, but over the last 5 years seasonality shows a recovery in the second half of the month. 👉 This reinforces the idea that downside risk is limited and that pullbacks may offer long opportunities. 🧠 Sentiment Retail traders: 74% short, only 26% long. Classic contrarian signal: retail is short, which supports a long bias. 📉P rice Action & Technicals (H1/D1/W1) Price is moving inside a daily ascending channel (uptrend in progress). Key resistance: 1.1800 – 1.1850 (weekly supply cluster). Main support: 1.1650 – 1.1600 (daily demand zone, RSI reacted). Daily RSI above 50 → positive momentum, not overbought. ✅ Operational Summary EUR/USD shows a favorable context (fundamentals + COT + sentiment) supporting the upside. Technical structure favors a test of 1.1850 resistance. Best strategy: look for long entries on pullbacks or breakouts, with invalidation below 1.1650.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
You See the Signals, So Why Are You Still Losing Money?The Crypto Conundrum: You See the Signals, So Why Are You Still Losing Money? Every morning, thousands of traders boot up their rigs. Their screens light up with flashing RSI, MACD, and moving averages. Crypto Twitter is buzzing with analysts calling the next big move. All the information you could ever want is right at your fingertips. So why, by the end of the week, is your account balance smaller than when you started? Let’s get one thing straight: the problem isn’t the indicators or the analysts. The problem is the "wetware"—the trader sitting in the chair. You’re not losing because the signals are wrong. You’re losing because of how you react to them. Let's break down the real reasons your account is bleeding. Reason #1: Psychology Trumps Logic. Every Single Time. This is the #1 account killer. The market is an arena ruled by the twin demons of Fear and Greed. Your brilliant technical analysis is just a spectator. FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) – The Rocket Ship Trap The Scene: Some altcoin, let's call it $WAGMI, has pumped 30% in an hour. Every indicator is screaming "overbought." Analysts are saying the news is already priced in. But all you see is a giant green candle. Your brain screams, "What if this thing 100x's? I gotta get in on this rocket ship!" The Action: You ape in at the top. The Result: The early buyers start taking profits, and the price nosedives. You're left holding the bag, wondering what went wrong and blaming "market manipulation." The Mistake: You let an emotional impulse override every logical signal in front of you. FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) – The Paper Hands Plague The Scene: You entered a trade following your rules perfectly. The price bounced off a key support level, and the RSI showed a bullish divergence. But an hour later, the market dips slightly, and you're down 2%. A vague headline about crypto regulation in some far-off country flashes across your feed. The Action: Panic. You slam the "close position" button to "cut your losses before it gets worse." The Result: A few hours later, the price reverses and rips upward, hitting the exact target you originally set for a 15% gain. The Mistake: You abandoned your own system because you got spooked by market "noise." Reason #2: You Have No System. You Have a Gambling Habit. An indicator signal isn't a magic bullet; it's just one piece of the puzzle. "Indicator Soup" The Scene: Your chart is a mess. You’ve got RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and the Ichimoku Cloud all layered on top of each other. One says buy, another says sell, and a third is neutral. The Action: You either freeze up from "paralysis by analysis" or, even worse, you cherry-pick the one signal that confirms what you wanted to do anyway. The Result: A series of chaotic, random trades. Any profits are pure luck; the losses are inevitable. The Mistake: Believing that more indicators equal more certainty. In reality, it just creates noise and confusion. Ignoring the Stop-Loss: The Ultimate Sin The Scene: You enter a long position based on a solid signal. But the price immediately starts moving against you. You told yourself you'd exit at a 5% loss, but as the price hits your stop level, you think, "It's gotta turn around any second now. I don't want to lock in a loss." The Action: You delete your stop-loss, turning what was supposed to be a quick trade into a long-term "investment" you never wanted. The Result: That 5% loss snowballs into a 20%, then 50% loss, tying up your capital and killing your account. The Mistake: You violated the golden rule of trading: protect your capital. Hope is not a strategy. Reason #3: You're Missing the Forest for the Trees Indicators are useless without understanding the broader market context. The Scene: The RSI on the 4-hour chart is deep in "oversold" territory—a classic buy signal. The Action: You go long. The Result: The price keeps tanking. Why? Because you failed to zoom out. On the daily chart, the asset is in a brutal, multi-month downtrend. A bullish signal in a bear market is often just a bull trap, a brief pause before the next leg down. The Mistake: You analyzed a single timeframe in a vacuum, ignoring the primary trend. So, What's the Fix? It's All About Strategy. A real trading strategy isn't just "buy when the green line crosses the red one." It's a non-negotiable set of rules that dictates your every move. It must include: Entry Trigger: Exactly what conditions must be met to open a position. Example: The price must be above the 200-day EMA (confirming an uptrend), and MACD must have a bullish cross on the 4-hour chart. Stop-Loss (Your Exit for a Loss): A pre-defined price point where you get out, no questions asked. This is your insurance policy against catastrophic loss. Example: Place the stop-loss just below the most recent swing low. Take-Profit (Your Exit for a Win): A pre-defined target where you lock in gains. Your potential profit should always be significantly larger than your potential loss (a good Risk/Reward Ratio is at least 2:1). Example: If your stop-loss is 3% below your entry, your first take-profit target should be at least 6% above it. A Simple, No-Nonsense Strategy Framework: Concept: Trade with the trend, not against it. Toolkit: The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the main trend, and basic support/resistance levels. The Rules: If the price is above the 200 EMA on the daily chart, you ONLY look for buys (longs). Wait for the price to pull back to a key support level. Enter a long position ONLY when you see a confirmation signal at that level (like a bullish engulfing candle). Place your stop-loss below that support level. Place your take-profit at the next resistance level. If the price is below the 200 EMA, you do the exact opposite and ONLY look for sells (shorts). The Bottom Line Indicators, charts, and expert analysis are just tools. In the hands of a disciplined craftsman, they can build wealth. In the hands of an emotional amateur, they’re just a way to smash your own thumb. You lose money not because your tools are bad, but because you lack a plan, discipline, and risk management. Success in trading isn't about finding a holy grail indicator. It’s about the boring, repetitive work of following your rules, day in and day out. The market doesn't pay you for being smart; it pays you for being disciplined. Period.
Education
by NeuralTradingPro
EUR/GBP at a Critical Level: Breakout or Fakeout?1. Seasonal Tendencies September over a 20y–15y horizon is historically neutral to slightly positive. In the last 5y and 2y, however, seasonality has shown stronger bullish tendencies with significant average gains. October, on the other hand, historically turns negative, suggesting that the current bullish momentum may face resistance and a potential reversal next month. 📌 Seasonal Conclusion: Short-term bullish support until the end of September, but a correction risk in October. 2. Sentiment 90% of retail traders are short from around 0.8623. Only 10% are long, with worse average entries at 0.8682. Such an extreme imbalance signals a high risk of a bullish squeeze: retail traders are fighting the trend and often end up trapped. 📌 Sentiment Conclusion: Contrarian bullish → likely continuation higher into liquidity zones. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Euro: Non-Commercials reduced longs (-4,788) and added shorts (+3,130). Commercials increased longs. Net pressure is bearish from speculators, but institutional support remains. Pound: Non-Commercials increased longs (+5,947) and cut shorts heavily (-21,078). Commercials drastically reduced longs (-71,750). Speculators are becoming more bullish on GBP, while institutions are scaling back. Short-term this may favor GBP, but with retail heavily short on EUR/GBP, there’s still room for upward pressure. 📌 COT Conclusion: Mixed outlook, but with a slightly bullish bias on EUR/GBP as long as the market unwinds retail shorts. 4. Technical Analysis (Daily Chart) EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8720, testing a daily supply area (0.8730–0.8770). Structure: ascending channel, with the latest bullish impulse from 0.8620. RSI is in overbought territory, signaling stretched conditions. 📌 Technical Conclusion: The market is at a critical juncture → a break above 0.8730 opens the door for longs, while a strong rejection would confirm a correction. Overall Bias: Slightly bullish in the short term (September + retail shorts), but reversal risk rises into October.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
$MSTR Must Close This Week Above the 50WMA Or Else...The MicroStrategy chart is the only top signal that is somewhat cause for concern at the current moment. You can see NASDAQ:MSTR has closed the past several weeks below the 50WMA, which signaled the start of the bear market last cycle. Having said that, it has had a bullish rally this week and is trading above the 50WMA once again. MSTR must close the week above this level, otherwise the stock could be in for a much deeper correction, which could negatively affect CRYPTOCAP:BTC in October. Where have you heard that October prediction before? Coincidence? 🥸
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by jonnieking