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TSLA V3 Weekly Alert — Deep ITM CALL SignalTSLA QuantSignals V3 Weekly 2025-11-14 AI & Technical Forecast Katy AI Target: $421.69 (+3.2% upside) Expected Dip: $390.59 Monday before mid-week recovery Momentum: Strong weekly uptrend, MACD bullish, EMA alignment confirms uptrend Support: $402.40 Resistance / AI Target: $421.69 Insights: Friday expiration entry offers volatility discount; deep ITM call captures most delta with minimal extrinsic loss PCR 3.30 → institutional put-heavy positioning, creating potential contrarian opportunity Event Risk: Elon Musk fireside chat (Friday 1:05 PM ET) may spike volatility 🎯 Trade Setup Parameter Value Direction CALL Strike $370.00 Entry $40.30–$40.55 (mid: $40.42) Target 1 $46.00 (+13.8%) Target 2 $52.00 (+28.6%) Stop Loss $35.05 (–13.3%) Position Size 2–3% of portfolio ⚡ Key Advantages Deep ITM structure → high delta exposure (stock-like behavior) Limited extrinsic value → reduces theta and IV crush risk Timing aligned with post-event momentum and mid-week recovery Risk/Reward ~2.15:1 (Target 1 vs stop) 🚨 Risk Notes PCR 3.30 → extreme hedging/fear; stop may trigger quickly Theta decay accelerates Mon-Wed; manage positions carefully Deep ITM calls → wider spreads; use limit orders Consider scaling out at Target 1 to reduce gamma exposure Summary: TSLA deep ITM weekly call provides contrarian, medium-conviction bullish exposure, leveraging AI trajectory and technical alignment. Suitable for 7-day horizon with disciplined risk management.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by quantsignals
BTCUSD | London Session | Bullish Structure BalanceThe monthly bullish structure balance has now been filled, and the higher-timeframe map remains intact. BTC continues to rotate inside a bullish range and is still positioned in the discount zone. Range boundaries: • Range low (invalidation): 78.167 • Range high (continuation): 123.231 As long as price holds above the range low, the bullish bias stands. - Market Structure Mapping (MSM) — Current View The structural picture is straightforward: BTC is holding a clean range. There is no breakdown. No structural shift. The architecture is stable. Cross-market structure adds context: • The U.S. dollar sits directly on a major volume node. If the dollar pushes higher from here, risk assets usually feel it. If the dollar softens, crypto keeps its bullish rotation. • FX majors recently cleared liquidity lows, resetting the structural map. • Crypto majors remain balanced with no directional damage. This is a classic data-waiting phase. The structure is already drawn. The market is waiting for a catalyst to decide the next expansion path. - Precision Execution Modeling (PEM) — Guidance for Volatile News Days When heavy data is on the calendar, PEM shifts the playbook: • Do not react to the first spike. The wick is emotion. The candle close is intent. • Step back to higher timeframes. 4H and 1D candles filter out noise and reveal real direction. • Expect wicks to violate levels without changing structure. Large funds do not trigger algorithms on a random spike; they react to confirmed structure. • Protect capital until the market shows its hand. In fast conditions, patience is a position. CORE5 : If you need excitement, watch Netflix. If you need results, wait for the candle close. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
USDCAD: Institutions Accumulating? Perfect Pullback Into FVG1. MACRO & COT FRAMEWORK COT – CAD → Speculators remain heavily net short on CAD. The Canadian dollar shows a massive net-short imbalance, exceeding 100k net contracts. Speculators are still selling CAD aggressively → supportive for upside continuation on USD/CAD. COT – USD → USD is still net short overall, but positioning is shifting. The dollar is beginning to reverse positioning: fewer shorts + more longs = improving USD strength. → Overall COT environment favors further upside for USD/CAD. 2. RETAIL SENTIMENT Retail Longs: 51% Retail Shorts: 49% Retail is almost evenly split, slightly long. This is mostly neutral, but historically, when sentiment is balanced, price tends to follow institutional flows → which remain long USD/CAD. Sentiment confirms a bullish bias. 3. SEASONALITY (USD/CAD – November) November is historically a slightly bullish month for USD/CAD. The 20-year, 15-year, and 10-year composites all show a positive seasonal tendency. The current month is tracking a similar pattern. Seasonality supports a long bias into the second half of November. 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The pair remains in a structurally bullish uptrend with a clean ascending channel. Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend integrity. Price is currently correcting toward the mid-range of the channel. The market is entering a Daily FVG between 1.3950 – 1.3980. A prior sweep has already tapped the lower trendline, adding confluence. Immediate Support Zone 1.3950 – 1.3980 (FVG + structural support) → ideal area for long accumulation. Upside Target: 1.41500 → clear liquidity level above previous swing high. RSI remains above 40 and cooling off, indicating a healthy pullback within a bullish trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
The Power of One Setup: Variety Kills ConsistencyMost traders chase new strategies, indicators, and secret signals. Progress rarely comes from adding more. It comes from mastering one thing deeply. The fastest path to consistency is one setup traded a thousand times, until execution becomes automatic. Every setup has a rhythm. Market conditions, timing, management. When you rotate through styles, you reset the learning curve repeatedly. Specialization compresses uncertainty. You see the same context, the same triggers, the same mistakes, which tightens execution and accelerates feedback. Switching setups leads to inconsistent entries, inconsistent risk, and mixed data. You cannot tell what actually works because the sample is polluted. Professionals remove variables. They keep the market changing while the method stays constant. Turn the setup into a rulebook. • Market conditions: trend, range, volatility threshold, session. • Structure: levels, pattern shape, invalidation logic. • Entry: trigger candle, confirmation, timing window. • Risk: stop location, size per trade, max daily loss. • Management: partials, move to break even, trail or fixed target. Mastery does not come from more information. It comes from repetition and refinement. You do not need more strategies. You need fewer distractions.
Education
by HyroTrader
19
EURAUD: Institutional Buying Pressure & Bullish November SetupThe pair has broken out of the descending channel and is now forming a new ascending structure. Price reacted strongly from the 1.7550–1.7600 demand zone, which aligns with a key structural support and an oversold RSI area. The current consolidation phase is unfolding below a daily inefficiency (gap) around 1.7800–1.7920, which represents the first bullish target. If the bullish structure holds, we could see a three-wave move towards 1.7920, with a potential mid-term pullback to 1.7700 before the next impulsive leg. 🔹 2. COT Report Euro (EUR) Non-commercials: 252k long vs 138k short → net long Commercials: strongly net short Weekly change: +2.6k shorts / -789 longs → slightly reduced bullish momentum ➡️ EUR remains fundamentally strong, though speculative momentum has slightly cooled. Australian Dollar (AUD) Non-commercials: 42k long vs 101k short → deeply net short Shorts increased by +10k this week, indicating renewed institutional bearish pressure. ➡️ AUD remains weak with a clear bearish bias. 👉 Overall COT bias: favors EUR strength and AUD weakness, supporting a bullish view on EURAUD. 🔹 3. Seasonality EUR typically strengthens in November, especially during the last 10 days of the month (+0.003 / +0.004 average). AUD historically shows November weakness across 10Y, 5Y, and 2Y averages. ➡️ Seasonal patterns support the bullish case for EURAUD, aligning with COT positioning. 🔹 4. Retail Sentiment 70% short vs 30% long ➡️ Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal. 📈 Conclusion The medium-term bias remains bullish on EURAUD, with potential upside extension toward 1.7920, and possibly 1.8050 if macro momentum persists. The key support to defend lies at 1.7600 / 1.7550. A daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish scenario and reopen the path toward 1.7400.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
$MSTR bounce above $300 before falling further?Ever since Early October, MSTR has been falling. We've now reached the bottom of a flag structure and I'd expect a bounce here before we fall further. I think the most likely path from here is that we see a rally into the $300 zone, however, it's possible that we can go up to the top of the flag before falling further. That said, if we get a rally, it'll be a rally you want to sell because eventually I think we're heading down to the $100 level before you want to become a long term buyer. I've marked off key resistances on the path up to take profits on a long, should the rally play out from here.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by benjihyam
MicroStrategy Under Pressure: Bearish Playbook in Action🎯 MSTR: The "Thief's Playbook" - Strategic Bear Trap Setup! 💰🔥 📊 Asset Overview MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) - Bitcoin's Proxy Play in the Stock Market 🎭 The Setup: When Bears Come to Party Alright folks, gather 'round! We've got ourselves a textbook triangular moving average breakdown on MSTR that's screaming "short opportunity" louder than my portfolio after a bad trade week! 😅 Current Market Sentiment: 🐻 BEARISH CONFIRMED The technicals are aligning like planets before a lunar eclipse - and trust me, this eclipse might cast some shadows on those long positions! 🎯 The "Thief Strategy" Game Plan 🚪 Entry Zones - The Layering Approach Here's where it gets spicy! 🌶️ Instead of going all-in like a degen at a casino, we're using the "Thief Layering Method" - multiple limit sell orders to scale into this position: Suggested Entry Layers: 🥇 Layer 1: $300 🥈 Layer 2: $290 🥉 Layer 3: $280 💎 Layer 4: $270 🔥 Layer 5: $260 Pro Tip: You can add MORE layers based on your risk appetite and account size. More layers = Better average entry = Smoother sleep at night! 😴 🛡️ Risk Management - The "Oh Sh*t" Line Stop Loss: 🚨 $320 ⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTICE: Dear Thief OGs, Ladies & Gentlemen! This SL is MY line in the sand. YOU need to decide YOUR own risk tolerance. Trade at your own risk, manage your own money, and don't blame me if things go sideways! This ain't financial advice - it's entertainment with charts! 🎪 🎁 Target Zone - Where We Cash Out Take Profit Target: 🎯 $210 Why $210? 💪 Strong historical support level 📉 Oversold territory expected Classic bull trap zone where longs get liquidated ⚠️ ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTICE: Thief OGs! This is MY target. You do YOU! If you see profits earlier and want to secure the bag - DO IT! Don't be greedy. Take profits when YOU feel comfortable. Your account, your rules, your responsibility! 💼 🔗 Related Assets to Watch - The Correlation Game Keep your eyes on these bad boys for confirmation: 📈 Direct Correlations: NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital) - Bitcoin miner, moves with crypto sentiment NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms) - Another BTC miner, similar volatility pattern NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase) - Crypto exchange, sentiment indicator CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Bitcoin spot) - The godfather! MSTR holds massive BTC, direct correlation 🧠 Key Points: MSTR trades with ~1.5x-2x Bitcoin beta (more volatile than BTC itself) When Bitcoin dumps, MSTR often dumps HARDER 📉 Watch BTC support at $60K - if it breaks, MSTR likely follows to our target zone Tech sector weakness ( NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY ) adds bearish pressure ⚡ Trading Psychology - The "Thief Mindset" Look, this setup requires PATIENCE! 🧘‍♂️ Don't FOMO in at market price. Layer in like a professional thief planning a heist - calculated, methodical, strategic! This isn't gambling; it's probability management with a side of humor! 😎 🎪 Final Word from Your Friendly Neighborhood Chart Thief Remember: Markets are wild, unpredictable, and don't care about your feelings OR your bills! This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes ONLY. The "Thief Strategy" is MY trading style - it's risky, it's aggressive, and it's definitely NOT for everyone! Do your own research. Manage your own risk. Trade what you can afford to lose. And for the love of all that's holy, don't mortgage your house based on some random internet chart analysis! 🏠❌ ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! 🏷️ #MSTR #MicroStrategy #ShortSetup #BearishBreakdown #SwingTrade #DayTrade #ThiefStrategy #BitcoinStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverageCrossover #LayeringStrategy #RiskManagement #StockMarket #TradingIdeas #BTC #CryptoStocks #BearTrap #SupportAndResistance #ChartAnalysis #TradeSmart 🎯 Trade smart, layer in, manage risk, and may the profits be ever in your favor! 💰🚀
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by The-Thief
EUR/USD at the Edge: Bounce Before Breakdown?🧩 Macro & COT Context (Note: data frozen as of September 23 due to CFTC shutdown) The latest available COT report showed non-commercial traders still net long on EUR (≈ +114K contracts), but with a steady increase in both commercial longs (+4.9K) and commercial shorts (+3.3K) — signaling a more balanced positioning. Meanwhile, the USD Index showed a slight pickup in long exposure (+1.5K), hinting at a gradual shift toward USD strength until updated data resumes. 💭 Sentiment Retail traders are 67% short vs 33% long, a typical contrarian setup where the crowd is selling the pullback. This supports a short-term bullish bounce, but only until the next supply zone is reached. 📈 Seasonality Historically, November has been a neutral-to-bearish month for EUR/USD (-0.0021 on 20Y average; -0.0063 on 10Y). The pair tends to weaken during the second half of the month, before recovering into December. 📊 Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price remains inside a descending channel since late September, recently retesting the upper boundary and supply area at 1.1570–1.1710, where a clean rejection formed. RSI holds below the midline (~45), confirming weak momentum. The overall structure stays bearish, with room for continuation toward the 1.1380–1.1400 demand zone, aligning with both channel projection and liquidity targets. Main Bias: Short continuation Sell Zone: 1.1570–1.1620 (upper channel + supply) Target 1: 1.1400 Target 2: 1.1350 (weekly liquidity pool) Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1715 Summary 📊 COT (last update): EUR still net long → neutral bias until new data 📉 Seasonality: Historically weak November 📈 Sentiment: Retail short → short-term bullish bounce possible 🧭 Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.1715
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
CANSLIM Overview📘 CANSLIM Overview — The 7 Traits of Big Stock Winners CANSLIM is an acronym developed by William J. O’Neil, founder of Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) and author of How to Make Money in Stocks. It describes the seven common characteristics shared by the biggest winning stocks before their major price moves. The system blends fundamental growth, institutional behavior, and market timing—and is grounded in historical quantitative studies dating back to the 1800s. 🧩 The Acronym: Letter Stands For Core Concept C Current Quarterly Earnings Explosive short-term earnings growth A Annual Earnings Growth Multi-year compounding of profits N New Product, Service, or Management Innovation driving market leadership S Supply and Demand Stock’s float size and institutional accumulation L Leader vs. Laggard Relative strength and group leadership I Institutional Sponsorship Quality fund ownership and buying pressure M Market Direction Aligning with the general market trend 1️⃣ C — Current Quarterly Earnings: Big Growth, Not Modest Growth “The biggest winners showed three consecutive quarters of 25%+ growth, but the best averaged 70%+ before their runs.” Measure this quarter vs. the same quarter last year, not sequentially. This avoids seasonal distortions. Ideal Growth Rate: Minimum: +25% YoY EPS growth for 3+ quarters Stronger filter: +70–100% or even triple-digit earnings growth Combine with revenue growth of 30–50% or more. Stocks with massive EPS and sales growth attract institutional attention early. Modern Adjustment: Today’s growth leaders (e.g., NVDA, TSLA, PANW) still show these patterns, though some use non-GAAP EPS or adjusted metrics. The concept—explosive profitability inflection—remains identical. 2️⃣ A — Annual Earnings Growth: Sustained Profitability “Look for at least three years of annual earnings increases.” Consistency is key. Accelerating growth adds conviction. Avoid one-time spikes or negative earnings trends. Favor firms with 3+ years of 20%+ annual EPS growth and positive forward analyst estimates for continuation. Analyst Upward Revisions are particularly powerful—funds often buy on these changes. Interpretation: Multi-year profit acceleration shows management execution, competitive edge, and strong demand. Example: O’Neil’s model studies (1952–2001) showed 73% of winners had +70% EPS growth the quarter before their breakout and 3+ years of rising annual profits. 3️⃣ N — New Product, Service, Management, or Market Catalyst “You want the next Apple, not the next RCA.” Innovation is the engine of multiple expansion. The “new” can take many forms: Breakthrough product or service Transformative business model New leadership or management Market share disruption Examples (then and now): Apple (iPhone), Tesla (EVs), Nvidia (AI GPUs), Uber (gig economy) Earlier eras: IBM, Home Depot, Microsoft Psychological angle: Human nature craves novelty. The market rewards perceived future dominance, not current stability. 4️⃣ S — Supply and Demand: The Float Matters (Less Now) Originally, O’Neil favored smaller floats (≤50–70M shares) since limited supply + strong demand = sharp price moves. “It’s less critical today—large caps can still double or triple. Focus on quality, earnings, and leadership over share count.” The principle still holds but is muted due to: ETFs, passive flows, and massive institutional liquidity Widespread retail access and option leverage The core idea remains: price rises when demand exceeds supply, visible via volume surges. Modern adaptation: Monitor volume spikes, accumulation/distribution, and relative volume ratios over absolute float size. 5️⃣ L — Leader vs. Laggard: The Power of Relative Strength (RS) “Buy the strongest stocks in the strongest groups during a confirmed uptrend.” O’Neil found each bull cycle is led by 2–3 dominant industry groups (e.g., semiconductors, software, solar). Within those, only the top few names outperform meaningfully. Key Filters: Relative Strength (RS) Rating: 85–99 (top 15% of market) Leading groups by RS, EPS growth, and fund buying Avoid laggards even within strong sectors. Modern context: Institutional algorithms still chase relative momentum. RS-based filters would be Ideal. “When you have the strongest stocks, in the strongest sectors, in an uptrend—and you use disciplined stop-losses—it’s very hard not to make money.” 6️⃣ I — Institutional Sponsorship: The Smart Money Footprint “70% of market volume comes from institutions—follow their footprints.” Institutions (mutual funds, hedge funds, pension plans) create sustained demand that drives major trends. Key things to watch: Rising number of institutional holders quarter-over-quarter Presence of high-quality funds (e.g., Fidelity Contra, Vanguard Growth) Volume patterns on charts confirming accumulation Quantitative Significance: Example: Zoom (ZM)—278 funds → 1,413 funds within 7 quarters (5× increase) Enphase (ENPH)—160 → 1,008 funds in 8 quarters Such surges often precede parabolic price advances. 7️⃣ M — Market Direction: The Most Critical Factor “If you don’t get the M right, nothing else matters.” O’Neil’s data showed: 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general market trend. Even perfect fundamentals fail in bear markets. Core Rule: Only buy aggressively during a confirmed market uptrend. The signal is the Follow-Through Day (FTD)—a +1.5% or greater gain on strong volume, typically 4–10 days after a market low. When the Market Is Choppy or Bearish: Reduce exposure or move to cash (cash is a position). Focus on capital preservation over prediction. ⚠️ Risk Management — The “Eighth Principle” “You can be right 1 out of 3 times and still make a fortune—if you cut losses fast.” O’Neil borrowed from Jesse Livermore and Bernard Baruch’s philosophy: Max loss per trade: 7–8% (ideally 5%) Never average down; if it fails the breakout, sell immediately. Emotional capital matters as much as financial capital. Risk Math: Loss Required Gain to Break Even 7% +7.5% 20% +25% 50% +100% → The deeper the drawdown, the harder recovery becomes — and the worse your discipline gets. Cutting losses early keeps both capital and confidence intact. Advanced Discipline: Always use stop-losses near pivot points Size positions so that total portfolio risk ≤1–2% per trade, and the Reward is 3x your risk. Expect that most trades won’t work; winners will more than offset losers 🔢 Practical CANSLIM Checklist Step Criterion Target Metric C Current quarterly EPS growth ≥25%, ideally 70%+ A Annual EPS growth 3 consecutive years ≥20% N Innovation or catalyst New product/service/management S Supply-demand imbalance Volume > average, low float optional L Leadership RS ≥85; top 3 names in top sector I Institutional ownership Increasing QoQ, ≥2 top-tier funds M Market trend Confirmed uptrend via FTD Risk Stop loss 5–8% below entry, always enforced 🧠 Psychological Cornerstones Human nature never changes. Fear and greed drive every cycle—from 1800s railroads to 2020s AI stocks. Discipline beats prediction. Entry precision is less important than loss limitation. Conviction comes from quality. Big winners are clear leaders with strong fundamentals. Cash is a position. Avoid trading in “cold decks” (sideways or down markets). Emotion control = longevity. Protect your confidence as much as your capital. 🧩 Modern CANSLIM Adaptations While CANSLIM’s DNA remains timeless, modern quantitative investors integrate: Relative Volume & RS Ranking (machine-scored) EPS revision momentum (analyst upgrades) Institutional rotation data (13F filings, ETF flows) Macro context: liquidity cycles, Fed policy, credit spreads Technical refinements: base patterns, volume dry-ups, and volatility contraction setups (VCP). 💬 Summary Insight “Nothing has changed since the 1800s—only the tools. Human nature and crowd behavior are constants.” CANSLIM is a structured behavioral framework for spotting institutional accumulation of fundamentally superior companies at the right time in the market cycle. Its greatest edge lies not in stock-picking, but in discipline—knowing what not to touch, when to cut, and when to press. Here is the Screener I use. www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:STXEducation
by GabrielAmadeusLau
NZD/USD: A Trap for Early Buyers? Retail 90% Long1️⃣ Technical Context NZD/USD is trading around 0.5630, within a descending channel that started in mid-July. After testing the lower boundary of the channel and the demand zone between 0.5570–0.5620, price reacted with a mild technical bounce — yet without any structural reversal confirmation. The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence and remains above 30, signaling a possible short-term rebound toward 0.5750–0.5800 before a potential continuation lower. Key Levels Resistance: 0.5750 / 0.5820 (upper channel + prior supply) Support: 0.5570 / 0.5500 (demand + channel bottom) Technical Bias: bearish while below 0.5820, but short-term corrective potential toward the upper channel remains. 2️⃣ COT Data (latest available report) NZD Futures (CME): Non-commercial: Long +3,044 | Short +6,160 → rising net short exposure. Commercial: Long +2,869 | Short -286 → commercials remain hedged, confirming structural weakness in NZD. USD Index: Non-commercials remain net short but are reducing exposure, signaling gradual USD strength. → Interpretation: COT data confirms a pro-USD, bearish bias on NZD, consistent with the broader technical trend. 3️⃣ Seasonality Historically, November is slightly positive for NZD/USD, especially in shorter time frames (5–2 years). 20 years: -0.001 10 years: -0.003 5 years: +0.004 2 years: +0.005 → Suggesting a short-term recovery phase in early November, followed by renewed weakness later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Long: 90% Short: 10% Average long price: 0.5766 → The overwhelming long positioning suggests many retail traders are trying to catch a bottom, which raises the risk of further downside pressure in the short term (potential liquidity sweep below 0.56). 5️⃣ Trading Outlook Overall Bias: bearish with a short-term corrective potential. Main Scenario: → Pullback toward 0.5750–0.5800 (upper supply zone), then likely continuation lower toward 0.5550–0.5500. Alternative Scenario: → A daily close above 0.5820 would invalidate the bearish setup and open room toward 0.5950. Confluences: ✅ RSI bullish divergence ✅ Short-term positive seasonality ⚠️ Retail extremely long ⚠️ COT bearish for NZD
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
GBP/JPY – Bearish Continuation Setup | Possible Pullback to 2031️⃣ Technical Context On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading around 201.12, moving inside a descending channel that began in mid-October. Price action has recently tested the lower boundary of the channel and the 200.00–200.70 demand zone, showing a short-term bullish reaction but no confirmed structural reversal yet. The RSI daily near 30 suggests a potential short-term rebound but no confirmed bullish reversal. Key Levels Resistance: 203.50 / 204.50 (upper channel + previous supply) Support: 200.00 / 199.00 (demand + psychological level) Technical Bias: Bearish below 203.50; only a daily close above 204.00 would invalidate the bearish setup. 2️⃣ COT Data (stable due to shutdown) Latest available report: JPY: Net long positions increased by +14,727 among non-commercials, while commercials remain heavily short (hedging). This indicates a structural strengthening of the Yen. GBP: Net short positions remain stable (-3,392), with a slight increase in non-commercial longs (+3,704) but not enough to shift sentiment. → Interpretation: The COT context confirms a pro-JPY bias and weak GBP outlook, maintaining a bearish fundamental bias for GBP/JPY. 3️⃣ Seasonality November seasonality shows a negative pattern for GBP/JPY, especially on the 10–20 year horizon. 20-year avg: -0.69% 10-year avg: -1.31% Only the 2-year cycle shows a mild positive move (+0.88%), suggesting that mid-term seasonality supports bearish pressure until mid-November, followed by a potential technical rebound later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Short: 64% Long: 36% Most retail traders are short, with an average short entry around 195.98, well below the current market price at 201. → This means the majority are still in profit, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish squeeze before the next downward move resumes. ✅ COT favors JPY strength ✅ Seasonality remains negative for GBP/JPY ✅ Technical structure confirms lower highs ⚠️ Retail positioning suggests possible short-term fakeout to the upside GBP/JPY remains in a bearish continuation context, consistent with Yen strength and negative seasonality. However, a technical pullback toward 203.00–203.50 is likely before a renewed bearish impulse targeting the 198.50 area.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBP/USD — The Trap Above 1.32 Before the Real Drop BeginsGBP/USD continues its bearish momentum after rejecting the major supply zone around 1.3450–1.3600. From a structural perspective, price has formed a clear series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish continuation setup. 📉 Macro Context: COT data (delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown) still shows a fragile Pound: non-commercial traders are almost balanced but with a slight reduction in shorts, while commercials remain heavily short. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index COT reveals a growing long positioning — a clear sign of renewed USD strength. Sentiment: 82% of retail traders are long on GBP/USD → a strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: November is historically weak for GBP/USD, showing a negative tendency in 10- and 15-year averages. 🔎 Technical Setup: After a failed attempt to reclaim the 1.33–1.34 range, the pair dropped aggressively. A short retracement toward 1.3150–1.3200 could serve as a liquidity grab before further downside continuation. As long as price remains below 1.3270, the bearish bias remains intact. 🎯 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3150 – 1.3200 Support: 1.3000, 1.2850, then 1.2750 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.3270 🧩 Bias: Bearish continuation
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
USDJPY | Liquidity Sweep Before Year-End RallyUSD/JPY remains structurally bullish within a broad ascending channel that has defined price action since mid-2024. Despite recent pullbacks, momentum remains positive while price trades above the 151.50–152.00 structural support, aligning with the broader macro bias of USD strength and JPY weakness. 1️⃣ Seasonal Bias Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs. 2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side. JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative. The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term. 3️⃣ Sentiment Data Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension. 4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation. Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50 Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support) Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection) RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions. The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November. 5️⃣ Confluence Summary ✅ Seasonality: Bullish ✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY ✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish ✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel ⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBPUSD Retracement Idea for a new Lower HighHi Traders! Since my last idea GU reached my short target around 1.30000. I'm now looking for price to retrace to a previous bearish BOS area around 1.32500-1.33000. If price can create a new lower high in that area we could possibly see more bearish movement. In addition, if DXY can hold around 99.000-99.500, and continue reversing to the upside I'd have a new swing target for GU at the next Daily OB around 1.29000-1.28500. 1st alert set just below 1.32500 in case price doesn't make it to my target. *DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
Short
by thattradergirl
3
Strategy's Premium is Gone. Time to Load? 4 months ago, I posted that NASDAQ:MSTR premium was unsustainable and the stock price would drop. Since then, the price dropped by 50%!! Now, Strategy's is close to zero, and I flip my views on it. If you like this kind of trade, it might be a good time to start DCA'ing it. Note that Strategy continues to be a highly volatile stock, more volatile than Bitcoin itself. Finally, the stock is now at a technical resistance level. You can keep an eye on the premium/discount of this stock by looking at my 2 indicators: Market to NAV Premium Arbitrage Alpha Indicator , and Asset Premium/Discount Monitor
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
3
MSTR further downside but looking exhaustedNASDAQ:MSTR Price continues range bound in a complex wave 4 correction, notoriously hard to analyse. The trend is down but looks exhausted. Wave Y can complete any time in this flat correction pattern but is approaching the previous swing low and the 0.236 Fibonnacci retracement. Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence but price continues lower. IF pice breaks down further the next target is $185 where price may find a bottom. Recovering the daily 200EMA is the first goal.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Maddox_Metrics