Get started

Strategy!

GBP/JPY – Bearish Continuation Setup | Possible Pullback to 2031️⃣ Technical Context On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading around 201.12, moving inside a descending channel that began in mid-October. Price action has recently tested the lower boundary of the channel and the 200.00–200.70 demand zone, showing a short-term bullish reaction but no confirmed structural reversal yet. The RSI daily near 30 suggests a potential short-term rebound but no confirmed bullish reversal. Key Levels Resistance: 203.50 / 204.50 (upper channel + previous supply) Support: 200.00 / 199.00 (demand + psychological level) Technical Bias: Bearish below 203.50; only a daily close above 204.00 would invalidate the bearish setup. 2️⃣ COT Data (stable due to shutdown) Latest available report: JPY: Net long positions increased by +14,727 among non-commercials, while commercials remain heavily short (hedging). This indicates a structural strengthening of the Yen. GBP: Net short positions remain stable (-3,392), with a slight increase in non-commercial longs (+3,704) but not enough to shift sentiment. → Interpretation: The COT context confirms a pro-JPY bias and weak GBP outlook, maintaining a bearish fundamental bias for GBP/JPY. 3️⃣ Seasonality November seasonality shows a negative pattern for GBP/JPY, especially on the 10–20 year horizon. 20-year avg: -0.69% 10-year avg: -1.31% Only the 2-year cycle shows a mild positive move (+0.88%), suggesting that mid-term seasonality supports bearish pressure until mid-November, followed by a potential technical rebound later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Short: 64% Long: 36% Most retail traders are short, with an average short entry around 195.98, well below the current market price at 201. → This means the majority are still in profit, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish squeeze before the next downward move resumes. ✅ COT favors JPY strength ✅ Seasonality remains negative for GBP/JPY ✅ Technical structure confirms lower highs ⚠️ Retail positioning suggests possible short-term fakeout to the upside GBP/JPY remains in a bearish continuation context, consistent with Yen strength and negative seasonality. However, a technical pullback toward 203.00–203.50 is likely before a renewed bearish impulse targeting the 198.50 area.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBP/USD — The Trap Above 1.32 Before the Real Drop BeginsGBP/USD continues its bearish momentum after rejecting the major supply zone around 1.3450–1.3600. From a structural perspective, price has formed a clear series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish continuation setup. 📉 Macro Context: COT data (delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown) still shows a fragile Pound: non-commercial traders are almost balanced but with a slight reduction in shorts, while commercials remain heavily short. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index COT reveals a growing long positioning — a clear sign of renewed USD strength. Sentiment: 82% of retail traders are long on GBP/USD → a strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: November is historically weak for GBP/USD, showing a negative tendency in 10- and 15-year averages. 🔎 Technical Setup: After a failed attempt to reclaim the 1.33–1.34 range, the pair dropped aggressively. A short retracement toward 1.3150–1.3200 could serve as a liquidity grab before further downside continuation. As long as price remains below 1.3270, the bearish bias remains intact. 🎯 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3150 – 1.3200 Support: 1.3000, 1.2850, then 1.2750 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.3270 🧩 Bias: Bearish continuation
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
USDJPY | Liquidity Sweep Before Year-End RallyUSD/JPY remains structurally bullish within a broad ascending channel that has defined price action since mid-2024. Despite recent pullbacks, momentum remains positive while price trades above the 151.50–152.00 structural support, aligning with the broader macro bias of USD strength and JPY weakness. 1️⃣ Seasonal Bias Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs. 2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side. JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative. The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term. 3️⃣ Sentiment Data Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension. 4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation. Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50 Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support) Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection) RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions. The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November. 5️⃣ Confluence Summary ✅ Seasonality: Bullish ✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY ✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish ✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel ⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Strategy's Premium is Gone. Time to Load? 4 months ago, I posted that NASDAQ:MSTR premium was unsustainable and the stock price would drop. Since then, the price dropped by 50%!! Now, Strategy's is close to zero, and I flip my views on it. If you like this kind of trade, it might be a good time to start DCA'ing it. Note that Strategy continues to be a highly volatile stock, more volatile than Bitcoin itself. Finally, the stock is now at a technical resistance level. You can keep an eye on the premium/discount of this stock by looking at my 2 indicators: Market to NAV Premium Arbitrage Alpha Indicator , and Asset Premium/Discount Monitor
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
3
MSTR further downside but looking exhaustedNASDAQ:MSTR Price continues range bound in a complex wave 4 correction, notoriously hard to analyse. The trend is down but looks exhausted. Wave Y can complete any time in this flat correction pattern but is approaching the previous swing low and the 0.236 Fibonnacci retracement. Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence but price continues lower. IF pice breaks down further the next target is $185 where price may find a bottom. Recovering the daily 200EMA is the first goal.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Maddox_Metrics
ACHR to take flight (again)ACHR is my favourite vertical flight buys. I think JOBY is over-priced, and EVTL just doesn't seem to have enough market visibility. I've been in and out of ACHR for the better part of 2 years, and it's coming back into a spot where a swing makes a bit of sense. It's still in the rising wedge (which of course, it could fall out of), but there's lots of support to indicate that it should hold. 1. Today at pre-market it's trading at $10. That's almost exactly the POC for the past year. 2. The 200 day moving average is at about $9.50 3. The lower trendline is at about $9.00 With earnings on Thursday, there is some risk to this trade, but I think with options premiums, it's a good risk/reward balance. On open, I'll look to sell puts somewhere around my ideal entry point which is $9. Ideally I'd like a 10% value on the puts which means that I'd like about $0.09 per share. If the earnings crash, and I own the stock below $9, I'm OK with that. If the stock price drops, but stays above $9, I may just outright buy it. If the stock price jumps, I'll keep the premium, and wait for a new entry point at a later date. I'll update this at market open.
NYSE:ACHRLong
by brendanvanson
MSTR weekly bull divergence on low sentimentSentiment is low, the asset is hated and misunderstood by TradFi and retail. It’s a recipe for a bottom! Price is still in a wave (IV) which are expected to be long and drawn out, driving investors into shallow capitulation through boredom into patient hands. I don’t expect wave (V) to kick in until Bitcoin moves. Wave (V) has an expected target of the R3 daily pivot at $1039 but will overextend if Bitcoin does. Price has fallen out of the lower channel boundary and sitting below the weekly pivot, still above the weekly 200EMA so the outlook is bullish. Wave (4) may complete at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $230. For now I am waiting to see what happens before entering. Good opportunities are setting up. 🎯 Terminal target for the business cycle could see prices as high as $1000 based on Fibonacci extensions 📈 Weekly RSI has bullish divergence 👉 Analysis is invalidated if we close back below $82
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Maddox_Metrics
AUD/USD – Waiting for the Pullback Before the Next Bullish Leg?After rebounding strongly from October lows, AUD/USD is testing the 0.6580–0.6620 supply zone while staying above the key support area at 0.6520–0.6550. On the macro side, the RBA remains data-dependent after pausing its rate cuts, citing sticky services inflation and resilient labor markets. Meanwhile, the USD has been capped by softer growth data and growing expectations for further Fed easing into early 2026 — a mix that keeps AUD/USD in recovery mode, at least short term. COT positioning (last valid as of September 23, due to the CFTC shutdown) still reflected heavy speculative shorts on the Aussie — a structure that supported the recent bullish correction but is now outdated. Retail sentiment shows 77% of traders short, suggesting a strong contrarian upside bias, consistent with the technical picture. Seasonality data points to a mildly positive bias in October–November, typically followed by neutral behavior in December. Technical structure: Price has broken out of the descending channel and is building a short-term higher-low structure. Support (demand zone): 0.6520–0.6550 Resistance (supply zone): 0.6580–0.6620 → breakout could extend toward 0.6680–0.6720 RSI: mid-range, indicating room for another impulse higher. 🎯 Trading Plan Base scenario: Look for a pullback into 0.6520–0.6550 to rejoin the bullish leg targeting 0.6680–0.6720. Alternative: A rejection from 0.6600–0.6620 could trigger a short-term correction toward 0.6500 before buyers return. Invalidation: Daily close below 0.6475 (loss of structure). ⚙️ Bias: Short-term bullish, medium-term neutral-to-bullish. 🕒 Focus: RBA tone, Chinese PMIs, and U.S. ISM/labor data — all key for the next leg of AUD/USD.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
A few important steps for creating robust and winning StrategiesAs the title says, I want to share knowledge & important insights into the best practices for creating robust, trustworthy and profitable trading Strategies here on TradingView. These bits of information that my team I have gathered throughout the years and have managed to learn through mostly trial and error. Costly errors too . Many of these points more professional traders know, however, there are some that are quite innovative for all levels of experience in my opinion. Please, feel free to correct me or add more in the comments. There are a few strategic and tactical changes to our process that made a noticeable difference in the quality of Strategies and Indicators immediately. Firstly and most importantly, we have all heard about it, but it is having the most data available. A good algorithm, when being built NEEDS to have as many market situations in its training data as possible. Choppy markets, uptrends, downtrends, fakeouts, manipulations - all of these are necessary for the strategy to learn the possible market conditions as much as possible and be prepared for trading on unknown data. Many may have heard the phrase "History doesn't repeat itself but rhymes well" - you need to have the whole dictionary of price movements to be able to spot when it rhymes and act accordingly. The TradingView Ultimate plan offers the most data in terms of historical candles and is best suited for creating robust strategies. ___ Secondly, of course, robustness tests. Your algorithm can perform amazingly on training data, but start losing immediately in real time, even if you have trained it on decades of data. These include Monte-carlo simulations to see best and worst scenarios during the training period. Tests also include the fundamentally important out-of-sample checks . For those who aren’t familiar - this means that you should separate data into training sets and testing sets. You should train your algorithm on some data, then perform a test on unknown to the optimization process data. It's common practice to separate data as 20% training / 20% unknown / 20% training etc. to build a data set that will show how your algorithm performs on unknown to it market movements. Out of sample tests are crucial and you can never trust a strategy that has not been through them. Walk-forward simulations are similar - you train your algorithm on X amount of data and simulate real-time price feeds and monitor how it performs. You can use the Replay function of TradingView to do walk-forward tests! When you are doing robustness tests, we have found that a stable strategy performs around 90% similarly in terms of win rate and Sortino ratio compared to training data. The higher the correlation between training performance and out of sample performance, the more risk you can allocate to this algorithm. ___ Now lets move onto some more niche details. Markets don’t behave the same when they are trending downward and when they are trending upwards. We have found that separating parameters for optimization into two - for long and for short - independent of each other, has greatly improved performance and also stability. Logically it is obvious when you look at market movements. In our case, with cryptocurrencies, there is a clear difference between the duration and intensity of “dumps” and “pumps”. This is normal, since the psychology of traders is different during bearish and bullish periods. Yes, introducing double the amount of parameters into an algorithm, once for long, once for short, can carry the risk of overfitting since the better the optimizer (manual or not), the better the values will be adjusted to fit training data. But if you apply the robustness tests mentioned above, you will find that performance is greatly increased by simply splitting trade logic between long and short. Same goes for indicators. Some indicators are great for uptrends but not for downtrends. Why have conditions for short positions that include indicators that are great for longs but suck at shorting, when you can use ones that perform better in the given context? ___ Moving on - while overfitting is the main worry when making an algorithm, underoptimization as a result of fear of overfitting is a big threat too . You need to find the right balance by using robustness tests. In the beginning, we had limited access to software to test our strategies out of sample and we found out that we were underoptimizing because we were scared of overfitting, while in reality we were just holding back the performance out of fear. Whats worse is we attributed the losses in live trading to what we thought was overfitting, while in reality we were handicapping the algorithm out of fear. ___ Finally, and this relates to trading in general too, we put in place very strict rules and guidelines on what indicators to use in combination with others and what their parameter range is. We went right to theory and capped the values for each indicator to be within the predefined limits. A simple example is MACD . Your optimizer might make a condition that includes MACD with a fast length of 200, slow length of 160 and signal length of 100. This may look amazing on backtesting and may work for a bit on live testing, but these values are FUNDAMENTALLY wrong (Investopedia, MACD). You must know what each indicator does and how it calculates its values. Having a fast length bigger than the slow one is completely backwards, but the results may show otherwise. When you optimize any strategy, manually or with the help of a software, be mindful of the theory. Mathematical formulas don’t care about the indicator’s logic, only about the best combination of numbers to reach the goal you are optimizing for - be it % Return, Profit Factor or other. Parabolic SAR is another one - you can optimize values like 0.267; 0.001; 0.7899 or the sort and have great performance on backtesting. This, however, is completely wrong when you look into the indicator and it’s default values (Investopedia, Parabolic SAR). To prevent overfitting and ensure a stable profitability over time, make sure that all parameters are within their theoretical limits and constraints, ideally very close to their default values. Thank you for reading this long essay and I hope that at least some of our experience will help you in the future. We have suffered greatly due to things like not following trading theory and leaving it all up to pure mathematical optimization, which is ignorant of the principles of the indicators. The separation between Long / Short logic was also an amazing instant improvement. View the linked idea where we explain the psychology of risk management and suggest a few great ways to calculate and manage your risk when trading - just as important as the strategy itself! What do you think? Do you use any of these methods; Or better ones? Let us know in the comments.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by sofex
Why Most Traders Exit Too Early — Psychology of Taking Profits1. Introduction Most traders obsess over finding the perfect entry. But what really separates professionals from everyone else is how they exit. Closing trades too early kills more profits than bad setups ever will. The problem might be one's psychology. 2. The Two Fears That Control Exits When managing profits, every trader battles two emotions: Fear of Loss – “ What if the PRICE reverses?” Fear of Regret – “What if it keeps running after I close?” Both pull you in opposite directions. One makes you take profit too soon; the other makes you hold too long. The balance between them defines your discipline. 3. Why Most Traders Close Too Early After entering a good trade, emotions rise. As profit builds, so does anxiety. Instead of trusting their plan, traders imagine losing what they’ve just gained, so they close the trade prematurely. In doing so, they trade emotion, not logic. It feels safe in the moment, but long term it destroys reward-to-risk consistency. 4. The Solution: Predefine the Exit The only way to remove hesitation is to plan exits before entering. Decide in advance: – Target levels based on structure or risk-reward. – Conditions that justify partial profits. – Situations that allow for trailing stops. When these decisions are made beforehand, emotions can’t interfere mid-trade. You act according to a plan, not a feeling. Visual idea: Screenshot-style mockup of trade plan with marked “Entry,” “Partial,” “Final Target.” 5. The Real Lesson Profit-taking should be systematic, not emotional. Your job isn’t to catch every little move, it’s to execute your plan without hesitation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by HyroTrader
17
RECAP TODAY. USING THE SIGNALS AND TOOLS Fellow traders - followers, I have some today to recap on the day. Now I will say this. Today went the way they said it would go UP! All the overnight new, the morning media and the tech headlines all made today a profitable day for the bulls! I will also say this: it is a scary situation, because we have no resistance levels up here, so where does all this up trend movement stop? What do we know or where to put our stop losses? In building these indicators, I'm learning a few things. I'm learning more about myself and about what to look for exactly. There will be days where I will lose. Just like Friday: -$280! The price action was just not as consistent and friendly like it was today. Let me break down today: 1. I attached the 5min chart to show you what the " Golden Pocket " of my indicator resembles. A confirmation of price action and direction. It reacted perfectly. 10:15am Bear candle - 10:20am Bull Doji inside pocket - 10:30am Engulfing Bull candle with a long signal! You couldn't ask for a better set up to the upside to make your money! 2. The 15min time frame was a little more of a bulky solid read. Bull candles with wicks. The 10:15am candle carried the long signal with it. The wick within that candle was our 5min candles playing out. Weather you waited for the 15min plays or you entered in the 5mins. You won. 3. So, with all this, there is another indicator I play. That is my 0dte Context bundle. How this works in our favor is that in this specific situation you want to make sure your trends are moving where they need to go. The EMA, SMA and VWAP lines all had same up direction. The Green EMA/SMA Cloud all indicated up is where it's going. You have the tools to assist in decisions. If you need more help with reading these indicators. Let me know. I'm always down to help out. Patient is still key. Confirmations are still key. Remember that when trading. Do not get antsy and enter in trades that are not strong or that will not check all your entry boxes. Thank you again for the follows and the support. I hope these are helpful. God Bless, Trades with B!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by TradeswithB
MSTR: Time to Short? Death Cross + Triangle Break Analysis🐻 MSTR "STRATEGY INC." - The Bear's Playground | Thief's Multi-Layer Setup 💰 📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT Asset: NASDAQ:MSTR (Strategy Inc. - formerly MicroStrategy) Current Price: ~$291.23 (Oct 17, 2025) Setup Type: Swing/Day Trade - Bearish Confirmation Strategy Style: "Thief Method" - Layered Limit Orders 🎯 🔍 THE SETUP - Why This Bearish Play Makes Sense Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the Thief's playbook! 👋 MSTR just gave us a beautiful bearish signal with a triangular moving average breakdown. Here's what the charts are screaming: 🎯 The "Thief" Entry Strategy - Layered Limit Orders This isn't your typical "buy now" play. We're sneaking in like a thief in the night with MULTIPLE SELL LIMIT LAYERS: Entry Zones (Layer Your Shorts): Layer 1: $310 (First resistance retest) Layer 2: $300 (Psychological level) Layer 3: $290 (Current consolidation zone) 💡 Pro Tip: Scale into your position! You can add MORE layers based on your risk tolerance (e.g., $305, $295, $285). The "Thief Method" is all about spreading your entries to catch the perfect price zones. 🛑 RISK MANAGEMENT - The Thief's Insurance Policy Stop Loss: $320 🚨 (This is the Thief's emergency exit - if price breaks above this, the bears lost control) ⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTE: Dear Thief OG's (Original Gangsters), this is MY stop loss level based on MY analysis. You should set YOUR OWN stop loss based on YOUR risk tolerance. Don't copy blindly - manage YOUR money, take YOUR profits (or losses) at YOUR own risk! This is YOUR trade, not mine. 💯 🎯 PROFIT TARGET - Where the Money's Hiding Primary Target: $250 🎉 Why $250? Strong historical support level Oversold bounce zone (RSI typically rebounds here) TRAP ALERT: Institutional buyers often accumulate at this level - be ready to ESCAPE with your profits before the bulls wake up! 🐂💤 ⚠️ TAKE PROFIT NOTE: Dear Thief OG's, $250 is MY target based on MY analysis. You can (and should) set YOUR own targets. If you're in profit at $270, $260, or even $280 - TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN! 💰 No shame in banking profits early. Remember: pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. This is YOUR trade, YOUR risk, YOUR decision! 🔗 RELATED ASSETS TO WATCH - The Correlation Game MSTR doesn't trade in a vacuum! Keep your eyes on these correlated assets: 📈 Primary Correlation: CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Bitcoin): ~$108,625 (Oct 17, 2025) - MSTR holds 640,000+ BTC (3%+ of total supply!) Correlation Strength: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 ULTRA HIGH Why It Matters: MSTR is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin play. When BTC sneezes, MSTR catches a cold. Bitcoin's current bearish pressure directly impacts MSTR's valuation. 🔄 Secondary Watchlist: NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase): Crypto exchange - sentiment indicator NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms): Bitcoin mining stock NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital): Another BTC-related equity NASDAQ:CLSK (CleanSpark): Bitcoin mining operations Key Point: If Bitcoin breaks below $105K support, expect MSTR to accelerate downward. Conversely, if BTC rallies back above $115K, this bearish setup could invalidate. Watch Bitcoin like a hawk! 🦅 📊 THE BIGGER PICTURE - Why MSTR Is Vulnerable Right Now Bitcoin Pressure: BTC down -2.19% today, testing critical support levels Institutional Caution: Recent S&P 500 rejection (not included in index) = credibility questions Valuation Concerns: Trading at significant premium to NAV (Net Asset Value) Technical Breakdown: Multiple MA crosses + trend reversal signals Macro Headwinds: Risk-off sentiment in crypto markets (3-day consecutive decline) 🎓 THE THIEF'S WISDOM - Final Thoughts This setup combines: ✅ Technical confirmation (MA breakout) ✅ Layered entry strategy (better average price) ✅ Clear risk management (defined stop loss) ✅ Realistic profit targets (strong support zone) ✅ Correlated asset monitoring (BTC relationship) Remember: The market doesn't care about your opinion. Respect the charts, manage your risk, and don't get greedy. The "Thief Method" is about stealing profits intelligently, not gambling recklessly! 🎰❌ 💬 TRADE SMART, NOT HARD! This is a BEARISH SETUP with defined entries, exits, and risk parameters. Whether you're swing trading or day trading, the key is DISCIPLINE. Stick to your plan, don't chase, and protect your capital. Questions? Thoughts? Drop them below! 👇 Let's build a community of smart traders who help each other win! 🤝 ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #MSTR #Bitcoin #BTC #TradingView #SwingTrading #DayTrading #BearishSetup #ShortSetup #CryptoStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #LayeredEntry #RiskManagement #ProfitTarget #StrategyInc #MicroStrategy #ThiefMethod #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #NASDAQ
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by The-Thief
7
EUR/USD: Technical Rebound in Progress — Watch 1.1550🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutions are reducing long exposure and adding shorts, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutions are adding longs and cutting shorts, reflecting growing confidence in the USD. Institutional flows confirm a bearish bias on EUR/USD, with strengthening USD sentiment and mild euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 50% short / 50% long Market sentiment is perfectly balanced — a neutral retail positioning indicating no clear contrarian signal, consistent with a possible short-term consolidation phase. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly negative for EUR/USD (−0.2% to −0.5% on 10–20-year averages). Shorter cycles (2–5 years) show minor positive returns, suggesting that any rebound may be temporary within a broader bearish structure. Slight downside bias, with potential for short-term corrective upside. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD recently reacted from the 1.1530–1.1550 demand zone, showing signs of short-term accumulation. The descending channel has been broken to the upside, and price is now retesting the previous mid-range support (1.1600–1.1620). RSI remains neutral but shows a gradual bullish divergence building at the lows. 🎯 Main Scenario: If 1.1600–1.1620 holds as support, a short-term bullish leg toward 1.1710–1.1780 (former supply area) is possible. Invalidation: daily close below 1.1550, which would reopen downside toward 1.1500.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
BTCUSD: Waiting for breakout confirmation near the range highBTCUSD – Analysis for October 24, 2025 Yesterday, we had two trading setups for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD . The IRB setup played out as planned when the price rebounded from the EMA, formed a consolidation zone within the range, and then broke out strongly, pushing up toward the upper boundary of the range. This move shows that bullish momentum is still present, although the resistance near the range high remains a key area where short-term profit-taking may occur. Today’s Trading Plan Wait for the price to compress and form a tight consolidation zone near the upper boundary of the range. Confirmation condition: No candle closes below the EMA, which would confirm that buying pressure remains in control. Once a RB or ARB setup appears, that will be our signal to enter long positions. Bullish Scenario (primary bias): Entry: On confirmed RB/ARB setup near the upper edge of the range Stop Loss: Below the nearest EMA Take Profit: Targeting extended resistance levels above the range Alternative Scenario: If the price closes below the EMA and breaks the compression structure, we’ll stay out of the market and wait for a new setup once the structure stabilizes. Summary BTC continues to show strength, but the upper range boundary remains a key test. Today’s plan: Wait – Confirm – Execute. Avoid FOMO until a clear confirmation appears. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZuperView
BTCUSD: Sideways - Watch for setup near range boundariesBITSTAMP:BTCUSD Analysis – October 22, 2025 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is currently trading within a sideways range between 107,726 and 111,377 USD. After a breakout attempt, the price formed a buildup zone near the lower boundary of the range and surged upwards. However, it then created a false breakout at the upper boundary before pulling back to retest the previous buildup area. This false breakout was caused by weakening buying momentum after breaking above the range, partly because the buildup zone was too far from the upper boundary, limiting the follow-through. According to yesterday’s plan, we are waiting for a buildup close to the upper boundary and EMA compression to confirm a valid breakout. Trading plan for today: Look to sell when price forms a buildup near the lower boundary of the range with EMA compressing close. Enter the trade upon the appearance of rejection signals such as RB or ARB. The buy setup has not yet formed clearly but may be considered if an IRB appears within the larger BTC range. In summary, BTC is still in an accumulation phase. Prioritize waiting for confirmed signals before entering trades to minimize risk. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
Market Seasonality: Finding Statistical Edges in Price Patterns🟢 Overview Market seasonality refers to recurring, quantifiable patterns in asset price movements that appear consistently across different time periods. Rather than mystical predictions, these patterns reflect systematic behavioral trends, institutional flows, and market structures that have persisted across years, and in some cases, centuries, of trading history. 🟢 How Seasonality Works Seasonality analysis examines historical price data to identify months or periods when specific assets have historically shown strength or weakness. The approach replaces emotion-driven decision-making with probabilistic insights based on historical performance across complete market cycles, including bull markets, bear markets, and periods of consolidation. By quantifying these patterns, traders and investors can identify potential statistical edges in their execution timing. 🟢 Evidence Across Asset Classes 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD Since the development of futures markets and institutional participation, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable seasonal patterns with measurable statistical significance. September has averaged -1.92% returns, establishing it as the weakest month. In contrast, October has emerged as the strongest performer with average returns of +21.59% and a 90% positive occurrence. This level of consistency suggests a robust statistical edge rather than random variation. Day-of-week patterns in modern Bitcoin are relatively tight, with differences ranging from 0.07% to 0.50%. Monday edges out as the optimal day for selling positions. However, these daily patterns offer considerably less statistical significance than the monthly seasonality effects, as the weekly variations have smoothed out compared to Bitcoin's earlier history. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD Ethereum displays even more pronounced seasonal variations with stronger directional bias. September has been particularly challenging, averaging -10.04% returns and showing negative performance in eight out of ten years, representing an 80% probability of decline. June also demonstrates weakness at -7.20% average returns. Conversely, May stands out as the strongest month with average returns of +34.97%, positive 70% of the time across the dataset. May has delivered positive returns in seven out of ten years, providing a statistically meaningful edge. Day-of-week analysis reveals differences of 0.2% to 0.6%, with Wednesday edging out slightly for selling and Tuesday showing marginally better performance for buying. However, these daily variations lack statistical significance when compared to the dramatic monthly patterns, representing more noise than actionable alpha for systematic strategies. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX With over 50 years of data dating back to 1971, the S&P 500 demonstrates the famous "September Effect." September averages -0.90% returns and has been negative with notable consistency, establishing statistical significance through sheer sample size. November, capturing typical year-end institutional positioning, averages +1.73% with positive performance 70% of the time. April comes in second at +1.44% average returns. The persistence of these patterns across five decades provides robust evidence of systematic seasonal effects even in highly efficient markets. Day-of-week effects in the S&P 500 are minimal, ranging from just 0.01% to 0.07%. Monday shows a slight negative drift at -0.01%, while Wednesday edges up 0.07%. These intraday variations fall well within normal variance and lack statistical significance for execution timing. For this index, monthly patterns provide the primary source of seasonal alpha. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD Perhaps most compelling is gold's seasonal data spanning nearly 200 years since 1832, offering an extraordinarily large sample size for statistical validation. January shows the strongest average returns at +0.99% and has been positive 80% of the time, representing a highly reliable statistical edge. June represents the weakest period at -0.18% average returns, with October also serving as a potential entry point at just 0.05% average returns. July comes in as the second-best month at +0.79%. The consistency of these patterns across multiple centuries, world events, and monetary system changes indicates deeply embedded structural inefficiencies in market dynamics. Day-of-week patterns in gold are similarly minimal. Thursday edges out at 0.09% for optimal selling, while Sunday shows 0.01% for buying opportunities. Like the S&P 500, gold trades predominantly on monthly patterns rather than daily variations, with intraweek effects lacking statistical significance. 🟢 TL;DR 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD : Accumulate during September weakness (-1.92%), sell into October strength (+21.59%). October has been positive 9 out of 10 years since 2015, representing a 90% positive occurrence. Day of week: Sunday dips for buying, Monday for selling. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD : Summer pain is real. September (-10.04%) and June (-7.20%) are buying opportunities. May (+34.97%) is the monster month historically, positive 7 out of 10 years (70% positive frequency). Day of week: Tuesday buying, Wednesday selling, but minimal statistical significance. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX : The September Effect demonstrates statistical significance (-0.90% average over 50+ years). November (+1.73%) captures the year-end rally with 70% positive occurrence. Day of week effects are negligible (0.01-0.07%) and lack statistical significance. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD : January strength (+0.99%, 80% positive frequency) after June weakness (-0.18%). Nearly 200 years of data backing these patterns provides exceptional statistical validation. Day of week: Sunday buying, Thursday selling, but minimal differences. 🟢 Final thoughts Ultimately, seasonality analysis does not guarantee future results, but it provides a framework for probabilistic decision-making with quantifiable statistical edges. Rather than attempting to time markets based on sentiment or short-term price movements, systematic traders and investors can align decisions with periods that have historically shown consistent strength or weakness with statistical significance. This approach is particularly valuable for planning entry and exit points, portfolio rebalancing, and managing position sizing within a rules-based framework. Notably, while day-of-week patterns exist in some assets, monthly seasonality tends to provide more significant and statistically reliable edges across most markets. The data suggests that seasonal patterns persist even in highly efficient markets, driven by recurring institutional behaviors, tax considerations, and structural market dynamics that create exploitable inefficiencies. Market seasonality should be viewed as one analytical tool within a comprehensive quantitative framework, not a guarantee of performance, but a method to incorporate historical probabilities and statistical edges into systematic investment decisions. This isn't about perfect timing either. It's about leveraging statistical edges based on historical probabilities instead of emotion. You'll still be wrong sometimes, but less often when operating with decades of data and quantifiable patterns rather than sentiment alone. 👉 Try the Seasonality Heatmap indicator yourself on TradingView to explore these patterns across different assets and timeframes. *This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by QuantAlgo
BTC - Predicting Scalps with Order Blocks Here’s another practical example of “Will Bitcoin Move Up or Down?” Will Bitcoin Move up or down from 108,500? In this example we will be taking a trade from the consolidation point of 108,500 In my previous posts I’ve taught you how to draw order blocks of stop loss orders and use them to predict movement. We draw green boxes for BUY orders ABOVE price and red boxes for SELL orders BELOW price. Note how this is opposite to how we are told to look at charts - with limit buys below and limit sells above. Stop Loss orders only full when price crosses the level and buys are above, sells are below. In this example we will factor in Consolidation Time / Duration to predict price. Although there are significant gaps of short stop losses above, the time of consolidation that collects the long stop loss orders is much larger in duration. I’ve drawn the boxes here in widths to show length of time price has consolidated to attract these orders. The more time in consolidation without a recovery of these order blocks, the more orders are accumulated and therefor more buying or selling power. Because there are much more long stop loss orders accumulated: Bitcoin will DROP from 108,500 and we can set a take profit on the short at the end of this order block range at 78,000
Short
by DickDandy
BTCUSD: Waiting for EMA pullback and bullish setupBITSTAMP:BTCUSD Analysis – October 20, 2025 Overview: After a strong drop to the 103,600 area, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is showing a solid recovery momentum. Price has broken out of the previous accumulation range and made a pullback, but the early buying opportunity has already passed. Trading Plan for Today: Currently, price is approaching a previous key resistance level—a critical zone to watch for reaction. The main strategy is to wait for a pullback toward the EMA zone and look for a confirmed buy setup based on one of the following patterns: DD (Double Doji) – indicating a potential pause and reversal. SB (Second Break) – confirming continuation of the bullish trend. Alternative Scenario: If BTC continues to rally strongly without a pullback and breaks above the key level. It’s better to stay on the sidelines rather than chase the move. Avoid FOMO when the market doesn’t offer a clear setup — patience usually brings higher-probability entries. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups Tue (Oct 21)Market Update for Traders: Context: Currently, the price is approaching a key supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795. While we have seen a series of higher highs on the 1-hour chart, the momentum appears to be flattening. Below this supply level, we have identified some significant areas to monitor. The first clean value area on the 1-hour chart is around 6,701 to 6,705, with a visible pullback shelf located between 6,685 and 6,690. There's also a stronger demand zone in the 6,655 to 6,665 range. If we manage to break above the supply cap at 6,795, the next measured extension target is around 6,840, but this should be treated as a stretch unless we see solid acceptance above 6,795. Key Zones to Watch: Resistance: - 6,765–6,795 (this is the current cap) - Extension potential at 6,840, provided we see firm acceptance above 6,795. Support: - Look for the first decision point around 6,725–6,735, which reflects overnight strength. - 6,701–6,705 is a key equilibrium area. - The shelf for the first buyable dip lies at 6,685–6,690. - Further support is found in the demand pocket at 6,655–6,665. - If we encounter a deeper risk-off scenario, watch for extensions down to 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520, but only if we see a decisive failure in the rebound. Setups: Setup 1 — Rejection Short at 6,765–6,795 (A++) Entry: 6,788–6,793 after a 5m re-close back below 6,795 and a 1m lower-high Stop (SL): 6,804.50 (above rejection wick/upper edge) TP1: 6,729–6,733 TP2: 6,701–6,705 TP3: 6,686–6,690 Setup 2 — Acceptance Long above 6,795 (A++) Entry: 6,796–6,799 on first pullback that holds after decisive 15m acceptance over 6,795 Stop (SL): 6,785.00 (back inside the band) TP1: 6,822–6,828 TP2: 6,840 stretch TP3: 6,852–6,855 if squeeze persists Setup 3 — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6,701 (A+ Bounce) Entry: 6,702–6,705 only if 6,701 briefly slips and then a 5m candle re-closes back above it Stop (SL): 6,694.50 TP1: 6,729–6,733 TP2: 6,765–6,775 TP3: 6,788–6,793 Setup 4 — Shelf Long at 6,685–6,690 (A Bounce) Entry: 6,686–6,689 with a 1m higher-low and 5m hold Stop (SL): 6,678.00 TP1: 6,701–6,705 TP2: 6,729–6,733 TP3: 6,765–6,775 Setup 5 — Demand-Pocket Long at 6,655–6,665 (A Bounce) Entry: 6,657–6,663 on stabilization and 1m higher-low Stop (SL): 6,647.00 TP1: 6,686–6,690 TP2: 6,701–6,705 TP3: 6,729–6,733 Setup 6 — Breakdown Short if 6,701 Turns to Resistance (A+) Entry: 6,698–6,701 after a 5m close below 6,701 and a retest that fails Stop (SL): 6,707.50 TP1: 6,686–6,690 TP2: 6,665–6,660 TP3: 6,604–6,564 only if momentum stays risk-off Management (apply to all) take the setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the stated SL. At TP1 close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner attempts TP2→TP3 if structure supports it. Time-stop 45–60 minutes if neither TP1 nor SL is hit. Primary execution windows: NY AM 09:30–11:00 ET and NY PM 13:30–16:00 ET.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex