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My 10 Rules before Taking a Trade.1 : Dessiner les Niveaux clés et la Tendance. (a) Trend and Supports/Resistances Majeures. (12-16x timeframe) (b) Trend et Support/Resistance on shorter term(6 or 8 time short). Draw the most recurrent Fibonaccis retracements or/and extensions. (c) Check Action Price on your trading timeframe. Draw short-term fibos. 2: Find a Signal Only valid on KEY LEVEL. Ideally respect the trend, with exception of reversal trades. No signal. STAY FIAT. Ignore Signals if : -Low volume. -Complex retracement. -Sloppy action price. 3 : Find Confluences. Is this scenario direction or targets the same if i use different projections? Different Bias? Does market profile validate my fibo support? Confluences help classify your potential setups by quality and help reduce exposure and overtrading. 4 : Plan the trade. We have the entries, the targets. Congrats that was the easy part, now you need to find invalidations, partial profit targets and when to rise your stops. For advanced trader, time to plan your time related stoploss, potential re-entries and how you plan to ladder your entries. Reminder : The closer your stop is, the best is your ratio and so are your earnings, in the long game, ladder entries will boost your profits. 5 : Calculate your REALISTIC Risk/Reward. No volume on the breakout of your triangle? no reaction on your fibo level? Trump is on a twitter fury and excite the dumb money.Most of the trades are not gonna go like you planned, you're gonna need to get out or reduce your exposure for many reasons. Being optimistic is good day to day life, when trading it's the opposite. Be Honest and Pessimist. 6 : Define Sizings and Maximal Exposures. Up to you, i personnally use 1% for my best setups, when i'm not so confident or trading an aggressive setup probably more like 0.3%. I usually ladder my entries with 4-10 positions. Still working on it. Reminder : A drawdown >25% brings a risk of ruin between 0.5 to 1%. My 10 years experience in risk/reward management 2 cents. This one percent HAPPENS. A human common bias is considering small percentage as irrelevant. They are very relevant, get other this bias. In my opinion : <1% risk per trade is MANDATORY if your capital is consequently above your cash flow. 1-3% if you cash flow afford you to rebuild your capital quickly. >3% if you are masochist. 7 : Mental check-up Am i calm? Do i want to trade this setup logically or am i pushed by Greed or desire of Revenge? What are my recent results? Am i emotionally involved? What are my recent results? Winning Tilt : Care of Overtrading, loose Stop losses, passing by mandatory partial profit. Losing Tilt : Care of Stops too tight, freezing and undertrading. 8 : Accept uncertainty and pending loss. A drawdown is normal even to very successful traders, for exemple with 50% success rate, you are gonna frequently have a 16 consecutive losing streak. Why this trade would be exceptionnal? Don't take this trade if you are not ready to lose 16 times your stop without blinking, without complaining. If you find yourself doing that, then it's a sign you are too exposed. you DON'T HAVE to risk 1% per trade, especially if you haven't proved you are a winning trader with a long history of profitable trades. Accept this trade is almost irrelevant and part a of a bigger picture. A lifetime of profitable trades that are going to increase your capital. No more no less. 9 Backtest before exposing yourself. Is this trade part of my bigger plan? Am i in my confort zone? Am i factually profitable with that sort of trades? If yes, Green Light. If no, don't panic, this work is not worthless. It is very valuable to open ourselves at other technical analysis, other instruments. But no so recommended to burn some bills on it. Time to Paper test this setup, or trade it on a demo account. Make stats on it, is it better than your actual strategy? Yes, you just made yourself richer? No?Smarter then..

Quick notes about Inverted Head and Shoulders Hello dear friends, this is more of a study than a chart. Here is what i did: * I sampled 16 IHS that showed over the past year and were visible on the 4hr chart. * I took in consideration sloppy patterns but ignored the ones that didn't complete or patterns that were too small or too big to discern on the 4hr. * targets are calculated roughly based on the closest fib as result, some targets have fallen slightly above or below that number. * By target i mean the peak price that was reached after pattern completion and within the timeframe equal to the time length of the pattern itself, and before reached a lower point than the low tip of the right shoulder * The outcome post pattern defines what happens after that pattern has reached its target within the calculated timeframe. Lower means the price dropped below the right shoulder lowest point, higher means the price continued climbing higher before any drop * The way i calculate IHS targets might be a bit unusual, but it works well for me. I calculate the length of the head from its lowest point to the meeting point with the right shoulder. Target calculations are a fib percent of that height. * Mind you, this is a quick study, nothing bulletproof or scientifically sound. And here are my key findings: 1. Out of 16, 3 failed, 7 reached 100% or above 2. the average success score is a retrace of 67% of the head size within the time length equal to the time length it took the pattern to form 3. 50% of the time, the price dropped lower than the pattern right shoulder or more after reach the pattern target Details: / a. 50% / lower b. 61.8% / higher c. 100% / higher d. 23.6% / lower e. 100% / higher f. 100% / higher g. 0% / lower e. 0% / lower f. 23.6% / higher g. 100% / lower h. 78.6% / higher i. 161% / lower j. 23.6% / higher k. 161% / lower l. 0%/ lower m. 100% / higher Again please take these findings with a grain of salt, this is by no mean super accurate and can be prone to error. But as a broad overview, hope you'll find this insightful.

Elliot waves. Why cant fully trust this theory. You can find many websites, even free books of Elliot Waves Theory. But if you read it by on eye, can understand its kind of shamanistic predictions. law of the universe - from small to big, law of complication and development. To build waves, should start from max. minimum time frame -1 min. than 1 min group in 5-15 min, than to 30 min, 30 min group to 1 hour, 1 hour to 4-8, and than to daily. the waves are divided into 10 degrees, *subminute, *minute ,*minor , *intermediate, *primary, *cycle, *supercycle, * grand cycle.Depending on the source, there may be different names and divisions, but the essence is about 10 of them. The length of the wave depends on the length of the previous wave, this is calculated by Fibonacci extensions. The waves can contain impulses and elongations, the waves can be lateral or the extensions can be pulses. And the main thing is how to understand this all. Where the exact coordination of movement, measurement, distribution ,. what if to miss? Suddenly it was an impulse but I built it like a wave, maybe it was an extension in wave 3, or is it ABC? in general, you understand that this algorithm is based on your personal judgments and experience, and from those sources that you used in studying waves. When this system of construction attends 2-3 internationally recognized postulates, then it is worth starting to study it. Now it all depends on who and how he sees, and you can prove that there is no way, but skolko people, so many opinions. Not waves determine the movement of prices, but people, their judgments, analysis, the market's opinion of the traded instrument, the conclusions based on previous levels of support and resistance and the general trend. Now the theory of waves is a guessing on the coffee grounds and dancing with tambourines around the fire under the starry sky.

Strategy for ALTCOINS VS BTC (Beginners) - How To Split Your BTC One of the many issues beginners face when trading ALTCOINS, is how to split their money. Where to invest? How much to invest? How long to wait?, etc. It happens that in this market, the cryptocurrency market, opportunities are endless, and we are bathed with a wave of new opportunities all the time, everyday, but this can turn into a problem rather than a solution. A disadvantage rather than an advantage. Why is that? Well, if we don't have a plan we tend to make mistakes, because of lack of experience. We might join a trade and buy an altcoin, we feel all pumped up and hyped up, and feeling good and positive. The next minute another opportunity comes, and this one seems bigger and better, and somehow you don't want to wait, you move to the new one, on and on. Leaving loses behind each time you jump from coin to coin, and worst yet, the action seems to start, almost always, as soon as you go. So how do we deal with this problem? How can we plan to take advantage of all the opportunities, without worries and end up in success? That's the question that I am here to answer for you. THE 10% PLAN Let's say you have 1 BTC (Or 0.10 BTC), or any amount for that matter, and a awesome, charismatic, helpful and optimistic trader, like myself (:P), posts a new idea and you want to join. How much of your capital will you put in? Will you put in 100% Of your capital? NO. "Well this is a huge trade", "This guy knows his stuff", "I will take the chance to recoup my losses", etc. Remember that we do not, and cannot, predict the market. We look at signals which points to a certain direction, but the market can choose to do whatever it wants. That's why we set targets and also stop loss. So instead of putting all your money in one place, divide all your trades in increments of 10. You have 1 BTC, then you have the chance to open 10 trades. You don't have to join them all at once. You are not losing anything if your money is resting fine. This new trade I just posted, you can put in 10%. Set it and forget and you will do well. The next trade, go ahead, another 10%. Now you are feeling good, because you have a plan and you feel strong. And even if the trade goes wrong, you have 80% of your capital safe, and in the worst case scenario, you will see a 10% loss. On the other hand, if the trade goes as planned, and you get to earn, you can be looking at a maybe a 100, or even 200 percent. Follow this strategy wherever you go. And trust, that in time, you will see your money grow. NAMASTE.