XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the Range with Fundamentals🔼 Bullish Plan (primary focus)
Trigger: A clean 30m body close above $3,649.14 (not just a wick).
Targets:
First into $3,653.32.
If momentum extends, room opens into $3,657–$3,660 zone.
🌍 Fundamentals Supporting the Move
Fed rate cut odds at 100% → policy easing reduces real yields → bullish.
CPI sticky but real yields still trending lower → long-term upside.
DXY + yields soft, safe-haven + central bank demand strong → gold’s floor is firm.
1️⃣ Fed Policy – The Main Driver
Fed Rate Cut Odds at 100% → Markets are fully pricing in a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Lower interest rates directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. This shifts flows from bonds/dollar into safe-haven assets.
Traders are positioning ahead of confirmation, keeping dips supported.
2️⃣ Inflation Outlook – CPI as a Near-Term Catalyst
U.S. CPI expectations remain elevated. Sticky inflation has capped some of gold’s upside in the short term.
However, inflation + falling interest rates = real yields decline, which is structurally bullish for gold.
The market is currently balancing “sticky CPI” against the certainty of Fed easing.
3️⃣ Dollar & Yields – Supporting Gold’s Floor
U.S. Treasury yields have eased as traders anticipate policy cuts.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has struggled to extend rallies, despite inflation worries, because Fed policy is already tilted dovish.
This mix keeps gold resilient, even during intraday pullbacks.
Management:
Take partials at the first target.
Move SL to breakeven once $3,649 is defended.
Trail remainder toward extended upside if momentum candles build.
✅ What Confirms the Move
Strong 30m body close through $3,649.14.
Retest holds as support.
Expansion candles with follow-through buying.
❌ What Invalidates
Breakout closes back under $3,649 on the next bar (likely trap).
Sharp wick rejections with no continuation.
📌 Bottom Line:
Only interested in longs above $3,649.14 → upside bias toward $3,653+ and $3,657–$3,660.
No shorts considered as fundamentals and rate cut odds heavily favor bullish setups.
