BTC 1H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 8💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 4-hour timeframe , Bitcoin is pushing toward its all-time high with a massive, high-volume whale candle .
👀 After breaking through its resistance zones, Bitcoin surged toward its ATH but faced rejection and selling pressure near that level. Key potential support areas are the 25 and 99 moving averages, marked in yellow and sky blue on the chart. The 25 MA is close to the 0.61 Fibonacci level, around $118,000, and is moving toward the average of the last 25 candles. A reaction to this moving average could indicate whether Bitcoin will rebound or drop further .
⚙️ Bitcoin’s key RSI zone is at 55.25, which corresponds to the $118,000 range. Breaking below this could push RSI under 50 .
🎮 Fibonacci retracement drawn from the breakout and pullback of the V-pattern shows that the 0.13 and 0.23 levels failed under selling pressure, sending BTC toward lower support levels. The current support based on Fibonacci is at 0.37. If this is lost, BTC could range on the 4-hour chart between 0.37 and 0.61 .
✉️ Tomorrow at 8:30 AM New York time, the official CPI (Consumer Price Index) report will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This news can significantly impact the crypto market — if inflation decreases, purchasing power rises , and Bitcoin could set a new all-time high .
🕯 BTC trading volume and activity are strong in both directions. Each price surge is followed by a quicker consolidation, and corrections occur under selling pressure .
🔔 An alert zone is set at the 0.13 Fibonacci level to observe price behavior when it reaches that point, then decide on the best course of action .
📊 A break below Tether dominance at 4.10% would signal a long position on BTC, while a break above 4.20% could lead BTC into a deeper correction .
🖥 Summary : Tomorrow’s CPI news could spark large, powerful candles and potentially a new ATH for Bitcoin. If U.S. inflation increases, stronger selling pressure is possible. There’s no specific trigger for this current level, but breaking 0.13 will prompt me to open a position — or at least take trades on altcoins with a bullish correlation to Bitcoin .
Support
BTC/USD 1D1. Price Structure and Patterns
Medium-Term Trend: Since mid-June, the price has been consolidating between ~$112,000 and ~$121,000, but with a slight upward slope.
Upward Channel: Marked with orange lines – the current candlestick is near the top of this channel.
Triangle Breakout: The white dashed line indicates an upward breakout from the converging triangle (symmetrical) formation, which could signal continued growth.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
Nearest Support:
USD 117,009 (Fib. Level 0.236 and local low)
USD 115,912 (SMA200 – red line)
USD 112,167 (lower consolidation boundary and prior support)
Nearest Resistance:
USD 121,151 (Fib. Level 0.382)
USD 123,966 (Fib. Level 0.5 – key psychological and technical resistance)
USD 126,781 (Fib. Level 0.618 – strong resistance)
USD 130,788 (Fib. Level 0.786 – breakout target)
3. Technical Indicators
MACD: The MACD line is beginning to intersect with the upside signal line – suggesting the beginning of upward momentum.
RSI: 59 – rising, but not yet in the overbought zone (above 70). This means there is room for further growth.
Moving Averages:
The SMA50 (~$114,020) and SMA200 (~$115,912) are below the price – a bullish pattern.
The price has rebounded from the SMA50, which is often a good starting point for further growth.
4. Scenarios
Bullish (more likely at this point)
If the price holds above $118,000 and breaks $121,151, a quick move to $123,966 and then $126,781 is possible.
Confirmation – the daily candle closes above $121,151 on increasing volume.
Bearish
If the price falls below $117,000, a retest of $115,912 is possible, followed by $112,167.
A break of $112,167 could signal a downtrend reversal.
5. Key Observations
Volume is increasing on bullish candles → a sign of accumulation.
The price is near strong resistance at $121,000–$122,000 – a correction is possible here.
Longer term (Fib from the March low), there is potential for a move towards $130,000–$135,000 if the trend continues.
Different Strats, Same ChartICT, SMC, breakout traders, trendline traders… everyone swears they’ve got a unique edge, but it’s all pointing to the same POI. Same price, same reaction. Doesn’t matter what you call it — the market delivers the same setup for everyone, only difference is how you see it.
ETHUSDT 12H chart uptrend1. Breaking out of the downward channel
• Black lines show an earlier inheritance channel.
• The course struck the mountain and it is quite dynamically, which is a strong upward signal.
2. Current price
• ETH is around USD 4,274, just below the resistance at USD 4,304.
• Another resistance is 4,484 USD (potential target if the upward trend persists).
3. Support
• The next support: 4,048 USD - if the course is corrected, then there may be the first "test".
• stronger support below: USD 3,930, $ 3,709, $ 3,487.
4. Indicators
• MacD: MacD line strongly above the signal, the histogram is growing - confirms the upward trend.
• RSI: around 75 - close to the purchase zone, which can mean a short -term correction, but with a strong RSI trend can stay high for a long time.
5. Scenarios
• Bull: Punction and maintenance above USD 4,304 can open the road to 4,484 USD and possibly higher.
• Bear: rejection from USD 4,304 and a descent below 4,048 USD may cause a deeper correction in the direction of $ 3,930 or even $ 3,709.
📌 The short -term market is warmed up, so a small pullback is possible, but the structure looks very bullshit after this burst from the downward channel.
ETH/USDT 12h chart1. Punction of the downward trend
• The black inheritance trend line has been broken up - this is a strong signal of Bycza.
• Breaking was confirmed by a strong candle movement and high growth dynamics.
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2. Key levels of support and resistance
• Support:
• 3930 USDT - previous resistance, now the defensive zone with possible correction.
• 3709 USDT - deeper support.
• 3488 USDT - critical support, below which the upward trend would be negated.
• resistance:
• 4048 USDT - current local resistance (the candle touched and lightly reflected).
• 4304 USDT - another strong resistance.
• 4484 USDT - long -term resistance and potential goal when continuing to grow.
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3. RSI
• RSI is around 70 - close to the purchase zone.
• suggests the possibility of a short correction or consolidation before the upward trend continues.
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4. Scenarios
Bycza (continuation of growth)
• Maintenance above 3930 USDT.
• Breaking over 4048 USDT opens the road to around 4300–4480 USDT.
Bear (correction)
• Rejection to USDTT 4048 and a decrease below 3930 USDT may bring a rate to around 3709 USDT.
TON Setup – Pullback to Support After 15% SurgeToncoin (TON) has climbed over 15% since our last trade. Price is now pulling back into a key support zone, potentially forming a base for the next upward leg.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $3.20 – $3.30
• Take Profit Targets:
o 🥇 $3.60
o 🥈 $4.00
• Stop Loss: $3.08
DOT | Bounce Setup from Major Support ZonePolkadot (DOT) has dropped sharply in recent weeks and is now testing a significant support zone between $3.60 – $3.70. This level has historically provided strong demand, making it a potential launch point for a bounce toward higher resistance levels.
Trade Setup:
🔹 Entry Zone: $3.60 – $3.70
🔹 Take Profit Zones:
• TP1: $4.30 – $4.70
• TP2: $5.20 – $5.60
🔹 Stop Loss: Below $3.30
BTC Support Tested, Mixed Cross-TF Signals, Tactical Caution__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
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Momentum & context: Bullish bias confirmed on higher timeframes (1D/4H), but bearish divergences appearing from 2H downward.
Major support/resistance: 114,600–115,000 and 114,667 hold as the critical zone. Key resistance: 116,900–117,000 must break for a bullish trigger.
Volume: Normal on HTF. Very high volumes detected on 30min/15min during the 116,000+ resistance test (climax/reversal risk).
Multi-timeframe behavior: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = “Strong Buy” from 1D to 1H, short-term sellers active below 2H (ISPD = Sell on 15min).
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Strategic Summary
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Overall bias: Bullish structure preserved, but fragility evident on intraday.
Opportunities: Tactical buys possible on 114,600–115,000 (stop <114,000) or strong breakout above 116,900.
Risk: Clear break below 114,000 = risk of drop to 110,000. Volume climax/ISPD Sell below resistance = profit taking advised.
Macro catalysts: Ongoing geopolitical news (US/Russia/China), volatility during US announcements; post-Fed digestion.
Action plan: Strict monitoring of ETF flows/funding/US news. Cautious accumulation on daily/4H, short-term shorts only if confirmed by lower timeframe signals.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1D: Strong upward bias, price at major support, calm volume.
12H/6H/4H: Robust sectorial momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”), daily/4H supports holding, initial bearish signs on 2H/1H.
2H/1H: Growing fragility: “Down” trend confirmed on 2H, momentum loss, buyer exhaustion visible.
30min/15min: Very high volumes under resistance, ISPD Sell 15min: short-term correction alert. Overbought microstructure, trigger risk if rejection at 116,000–116,250.
Cross-TF summary: Market mostly “Up”, but tactical vigilance around supports, increased caution above 116,000.
Summary:
- Bullish structure maintained on daily/4H, but top/reversal warning signals on brief lowest TFs (15/30min).
- 114,600–115,000 pivot zone is decisive: holding = increased stabilization/accumulation probability; break = risk of extension down to 110,000.
- Active monitoring of ETF flows/funding/news is essential.
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Macro & Bitcoin Analysis (Twitter Summary)
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Geopolitical risks remain high, US/China protectionism & Fed on hold: crypto market in wait-and-see mode.
BTC broke 116k, entered low-liquidity zone; rebound remains “fragile.”
ETF flows: moderate return to buying, funding neutral.
Possible post-pullback accumulation signal, but needs confirmation.
Strategy: swing buy on defended/major supports, strict management if short-term seller signals (volume/ISPD).
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Action Steps
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Buy on 114,600–115,000 zone if confirmed by daily/4H, stop loss <114,000.
Re-buy or more aggressive swing on clear breakout above 116,900–117,000.
Take profits/short if clear rejection 116,000+ with volume climax/ISPD Sell.
Monitor macro (US events), ETF flows, funding rate, volume behavior.
AUD eyes yield advantage over USD UBS strategists view the Australian dollar as a compelling long opportunity at current levels, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will ease policy more gradually than the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The bank forecasts 75 basis points of rate cuts from the RBA through Q1 2026, compared to 100 basis points from the Fed—helping to preserve a relative yield advantage for the Aussie.
On the daily chart, AUD/USD remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in late 2024. The pair recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel near 0.6450, with long lower wicks potentially indicating dip-buying interest.
Immediate resistance could sit at 0.6600, followed by a major zone near 0.6670. A break above these levels could confirm bullish continuation.
Chainlink (LINK/USDT) from 1D interval📈 Trend and Market Structure
Current trend: Upward (higher lows and highs)
The price is moving within an ascending price channel, marked by two black trend lines.
The recent rebound occurred from support around 14.83 USDT, which coincides with the lower boundary of the channel.
🔍 Key Levels
✅ Resistance (green horizontal lines)
18.98 USDT – local high
21.16 USDT – main resistance, possible target after breaking $19
18.27 USDT – current local resistance zone, currently being tested
17.62 USDT – mid-range resistance
🛑 Support (red horizontal lines)
15.97 USDT – first local support
14.83 USDT – important support (price reaction, trend confirmation)
13.30–13.50 USDT – key demand zone
12.50 USDT – lower historical support
📊 Indicators
🔄 Stochastic RSI
%K and %D lines cross from below → buy signal
Currently emerging from oversold levels (< 20), which could indicate a continuation Growth
📉 MACD
The histogram is decreasing, but the rate of decline is slowing.
Possible buy signal if the MACD line crosses the signal line from below.
🔊 Volume
Increasing volume during gains, lower volume during corrections – confirms bullish strength.
The recent decrease in volume may indicate consolidation or preparation for the next move.
📌 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario:
Uptrend maintained within the channel.
Breakout above 18.27 and 18.98 → possible rally to 21.16.
Confirmation by MACD/Stoch RSI.
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
Break of support at 15.97 and the trend line → possible decline to 14.83 or lower (13.30).
MACD may continue to decline if a strong rebound is not achieved.
🧠 Summary
Trend: Bullish
Price is currently testing resistance at 18.27.
Key support levels to watch: 15.97 and 14.83.
Indicators are providing potential buy signals, but confirmation will be needed on higher time frames or on stronger volume.
Gold Poised to Rise on Looming Russia Sanctions!!Hey Traders, above is a breakdown of the current technical and fundamental setup for Gold, with a focus on key support zones and the macro landscape that could drive further upside.
From a technical standpoint, the first major support area to watch is around 3,334, which previously acted as a strong resistance level. Now that price has broken above it, we could see this zone retested as a support — a classic breakout-retest scenario that may offer a potential bounce opportunity.
The second key zone is located near 3,311, a historically significant support/resistance level. What makes this level even more critical is its confluence with the primary ascending trendline, reinforcing its importance as a structural support in case of a deeper retracement.
On the fundamental side, gold continues to benefit from its role as a safe-haven asset, especially amid rising geopolitical and economic tensions. There are two major catalysts in play right now:
Escalating trade tensions, particularly around new tariffs. Markets are pricing in a high baseline tariff risk of 15%, which adds a layer of uncertainty and supports defensive assets like gold.
Mounting geopolitical pressure on Russia, with the U.S. expected to announce secondary sanctions this week. These could further disrupt global markets and drive demand for hard assets.
In summary, gold is positioned well both technically and fundamentally. If price holds above the mentioned support zones, we could see renewed bullish momentum in the sessions ahead. Keep an eye on developments related to trade policy and sanctions, they could be key drivers of the next move.
ARB Setup – Watching Key Support for Long EntryArbitrum (ARB) has pulled back into a critical support zone after recent declines. This level is showing strong buyer interest, and we’re eyeing a potential spot long entry as price consolidates near the lows.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $0.386 – $0.38
• Take Profit Targets:
o 🥇 $0.50 – $0.60
o 🥈 $0.95 – $1.20
• Stop Loss: Just below $0.33
BNBUSDT 4H Review🔍 Technical Structure
📉 Descending Channel (orange lines)
The price was moving in a clear downtrend within the channel.
A breakout from the channel to the top occurred, which is a potentially bullish signal.
The price is currently testing a level above the channel—a classic retarget (retest) of the breakout.
🟩 Support/Resistance Levels (green and red lines)
✅ Support:
760.97 USDT – currently tested as support after the breakout from the channel.
739.81 USDT – local support, previous resistance.
717.89 USDT – stronger support, lower boundary of the channel.
❌ Resistance:
779.87 USDT – short-term resistance.
809.72 USDT – key resistance on the higher timeframes.
📊 Volume
Volume increased during the breakout from the channel, supporting its credibility.
It is currently declining slightly, which may suggest consolidation or waiting for another impulse.
🔄 Stoch RSI Oscillator (at the bottom of the chart)
Currently leaving the overbought zone (>80) and heading down.
Potential bearish or consolidation signal for the coming sessions.
🧠 Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario (continuation of the breakout):
If the 760.97 level holds as support,
A move to 779.87 is possible, followed by a test of 809.72.
2. Bearish Scenario (false breakout):
If the price falls below 760.97 and fails to stay above 739.81,
A retest of 717.89 or even a return to the descending channel is possible.
📌 Conclusions
Currently, the key level is 760.97 USDT – maintaining it will confirm the bulls' strength.
Oscillators suggest a possible correction or consolidation.
For a long position: a good place to test 760.97 with a narrow SL below 739.81.
For a short position: a potential signal if 760.97 is not maintained.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Smart Money Concept Based
🔍 BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Smart Money Concept Based
🕒 Timeframe: Intraday (likely 1H or 4H)
📅 Date: August 5, 2025
📉 Price: ~114,445 USD
📌 Key Zones and Observations
🔴 Previous Resistance (117,000–119,000)
This area has a strong high formed after multiple equal highs (EQH), indicating a liquidity pool above.
Price sharply rejected this zone, validating it as a significant supply zone.
🔵 Support Zone & Liquidity Pool (~112,600–113,200)
This is a high-volume node (visible on VRVP) where price consolidated previously.
Market structure suggests liquidity resting below, as indicated by the marked “Target” area at 112,648.
Smart Money may aim to sweep liquidity below this support zone before any meaningful reversal.
🟤 Order Block & Rejection at 115,210–116,065
Price tapped into a bearish order block, creating a minor change of character (ChoCH) and then started to decline.
Rejection from this zone signals distribution by institutions or Smart Money, leading toward bearish continuation.
🟢 Value Gap and Imbalance (Above 115,000)
A visible value gap still remains unfilled; however, current momentum is bearish, and price failed to reclaim it, hinting downside continuation.
🔄 Market Structure
BOS (Break of Structure) to the upside confirmed short-term bullish momentum.
CHoCH back to the downside near current price reflects bearish shift in order flow.
Price is respecting lower highs, and failing to break above 115,210 confirms a bearish bias.
🎯 Target and Outlook
Primary Bearish Target: 112,648 USD
This is a liquidity pool and previous support area where institutions may look to rebalance and accumulate.
Scenario:
If price retests 115,000–115,210 again and fails, expect strong continuation downward toward the 112,648 target.
If price breaks and holds above 116,065, bullish invalidation may occur, and we can look for higher retracement toward 117,000–119,000.
✅ Conclusion
BTCUSD is currently respecting a bearish order block, with Smart Money likely targeting liquidity resting below at 112,648 USD. Unless price breaks above 116,065 with strong volume, the bias remains bearish short-term.
COIN: Retesting Broken Resistance - Decision Point IncomingCOIN (Coinbase) has pulled back sharply after its breakout run to ~420 and is now retesting the prior resistance zone near 310–315, which previously acted as a lid during Q1.
This area now becomes a classic support-turned-resistance flip and serves as a major decision point for price:
Technical Levels & Setup:
310 horizontal zone = former resistance from February/March → now being retested
Buyers stepping in here would confirm a bullish retest, keeping the breakout structure intact
Failure to hold opens the door for a deeper flush toward 220-250
Price currently sitting on the zone with indecision - watch for confirmation candle (hammer / bullish engulfing)
Measured breakout continuation still targets 450+ if support holds
Is COIN simply back-testing the breakout before another leg higher - or is this the start of a larger reversal?
XAUUSD – Mid-Channel Rejection Near Key Supply ZoneGold has made an impressive recovery off the $3,250 zone, pushing back into the $3,380–$3,390 region — a key supply area which previously led to strong sell-offs.
We’re now sitting at the upper boundary of a 1H ascending channel and just under a significant resistance area seen on the 4H and daily timeframes.
Although bullish momentum is still present, price is showing early signs of exhaustion at this level — with small rejections forming and volume beginning to taper off.
The key zone to watch is $3,384 – $3,390. If price fails to break and close above this zone cleanly on the 4H, we may see a corrective pullback back toward the midline of the channel — or even a full retest of the lower boundary near $3,305 or $3,268 depending on momentum.
Bias: Short-term bearish / corrective – waiting for confirmation of rejection or bearish candle formation below $3,384.
ETHUSDT 4H Chart Review🔍 General Technical Context:
Prior Trend: Upward (strong rally from around 3,150 USDT).
Current Structure: After breaking out of the ascending channel, there was a strong decline, but is currently rebounding upward – it looks like a test of prior support as resistance.
📈 Key Horizontal Levels (Support/Resistance):
Resistance:
3,794 USDT – strong resistance resulting from the prior high (green line).
3,943 USDT – high of the ascending channel.
Support:
3,504 USDT – prior support, now potentially acting as resistance (red line).
3,383 USDT – July support.
3,132 USDT – strong base support, potential correction low.
📉 Technical Patterns:
Broken Upward Channel (orange lines): A clear downward breakout suggests a weakening of the previous trend.
Downward Trendline (purple): The current price is approaching it – a test and reaction (bounce or breakout) may occur.
📊 Stochastic RSI (oscillator at the bottom):
The indicator is entering the overbought zone (>80).
This may indicate an impending slowdown or correction, especially if the price encounters resistance at the purple downward trendline.
🔮 Scenarios:
✅ Bullish (if the breakout is upward):
A breakout of the purple trendline and resistance at 3,794 USDT could signal further gains towards 3,943 USDT or higher.
Confirmation could come from a retest of the purple line as support.
❌ Bearish (if resistance rejected):
Rejection from the trendline or the 3,794 USDT zone = possible correction to 3,504 or 3,383 USDT.
Break of 3,383 = potential decline to the 3,132–3,150 USDT zone.
🧭 Conclusion:
The market has regained strength from the local low but is at a potentially strong resistance zone.
Stochastic RSI overbought + near resistance = high risk of a near-term correction.
The key will be price performance within the purple trendline and 3,794 USDT.
Swing opportunity on cluster support, technical & macro plan__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
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Momentum : Tech sector bias supportive on higher timeframes (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Buy” on 1D/12H) despite MTFTI “Down” on intraday (15min to 6H).
Key Supports : Major cluster at 111,900–112,772 (W Pivot High, 12H/24H Pivot Low). Critical defense short/mid term.
Resistances : 114,723, then 115,900, then 119,800–122,318 (break to relaunch impulse).
Volumes : Moderate to normal across all timeframes: no panic or capitulation.
Multi-TF Behaviour : ISPD DIV neutral everywhere: neither fear nor euphoria; wait-and-see market. No climax nor emotional extremes: conducive to squeeze or extension after catalyst.
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Strategic Summary
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Global Bias : Neutral to cautious bullish if 111,900–112,772 holds (invalidate if <111,900).
Opportunities : Defensive swing long entries on support. Gradual targets: 114,723, 115,900, 119,800–122,318.
Risks : Daily/4H close below 111,900 = acceleration towards $110k/$105k (on-chain air-gap).
Macro Catalysts : Geopolitical tensions (Gaza/Ukraine/China), China crypto ban headlines, sector decoupling, Fed/BoE policy.
Action Plan : Strict stop management (<111,750), agile on volume/ISPD signals. Critical macro monitoring: any exogenous move can trigger directional volatility.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1D (Daily) : Key support 114,723.2. Tech sector indicator (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) bullish. MTFTI Up. Normal volume, no panic. Lack of ISPD oversold signal.
12H : Support W Pivot High 111,900 – 12H Pivot Low 111,920. Uptrend, moderately higher volumes, ISPD neutral. Battling for support maintenance and bounce.
6H : Core pivot support 111,900–112,000. MTFTI Down. No volume excess or sentiment signal. End of momentum, increase vigilance.
4H : Weakness confirmed, supports 112,000–112,500, resistance 117,722 to 119,800. Last short-term rampart tested.
2H-1H : Bearish, attacks on 111,900–112,772 supports, immediate resistance at 114,723/115,900. Weak range market.
30min-15min : Neutral, lower range between supports (111,900–112,772) and resistances (113,950–114,723). Volatility on breakout events, no sector bias.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Persistent “Buy” on higher timeframes (12H/1D), neutral/bearish intraday (4H and below).
ISPD DIV : No extremes detected: no exhaustion, panic or major oversold; “range” environment.
Volumes : Normal, no climax or anomaly. Market awaiting a catalyst.
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Fundamental, Macro Events, Sentiment Overview
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Macro : Newsflow on China crypto ban, multiple tensions (Gaza, Russia-Ukraine), Fed/BoE slowing. Globally cautious setting despite no direct institutional shock.
On-chain (Glassnode) : Major OTC sale (~80k BTC) absorbed, 97% supply in profit: “moderate euphoria” phase, not capitulation; on-chain supports $110–117k, resistance $125–141k, air-gap below $115k.
Twitter : No panic, “final wick” narrative then anticipated technical rebound. No institutional outflows. China ban read as cyclical FUD.
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Summary & Action Plan
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Support 111,900–112,772 = key multi-TF cluster; area for defensive swing opportunity.
MTFTI is “Down” on lower TF, but Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish on daily/12H.
No capitulation, normal volume, market waiting for catalyst.
Swing bullish invalidated below 111,900—stop required, R/R 1:2 minimum.
Fast reclaim above 114,723 plus strong upside volume: short squeeze & potential extension to 119,800–122,318.
Macro monitoring essential (China ban, monetary policy, geopolitics).
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Operational Summary : Favor defensive swing long plans on multi-TF cluster support (111,900–112,772), strict stop <111,750, progressive TPs to 114,723/115,900/119,800. Stay opportunistic: bias cautiously bullish but risk management is paramount in a cautious global environment and with no strong extremes detected.
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BTC/USD 1D Chart 🔼 Resistance:
• USD 123,263 - local peak, strong resistance (green line)
• USD 119,120 - level tested several times, recent reflection
• 116,224 USD - zone of previous consolidations
🔽 support:
• 110,945 USD - SMA #2 (movable average), tested in the past
• 107,804 USD - local hole
• USD 103,542 - strong support from the past (historical retention of declines)
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📊 Technical indicators
📉 Trend:
• The yellow upward trend line has been broken - a potential bull weakness signal.
• The candle pierces the trend line from the bottom - it is possible to change the direction to a side or downward trend.
📈 Medium walking (SMA):
• The red SMA #1 line acted as dynamic resistance.
• The price is currently testing SMA #2 as support.
• SMA #5 (blue, approx. 98,600 USD) is very strong long -term support.
📉 Macd:
• The MacD line is below the signal line → Bear signal (Bearish).
• Red histogram - inheritance impetus is growing.
📉 RSI:
• RSI has fallen below the level of 50 → the advantage of supply.
• Currently, it is approaching the supply of supply overload (<30), which can herald the technical reflection.
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🔮 Scenarios
✅ Scenario Bycza (Bullish):
• Maintenance of a price above 110.945 USD (SMA #2).
• Return above the trend line or testing USD 116,224 and piercing up.
❌ Bear scenario (Bearish):
• Loss of support to 110.945 USD → decrease to USD 107,800.
• If this does not keep the course, the next strong level is USD 103,500.
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🧠 Applications:
• Short -term: the market looks weak, the candle breaks the upward trend.
• Medium -term: still in the game, but if it does not reflect from the current levels, a greater correction is possible.
• Commercial decisions: It is worth waiting for confirmation of the direction (reflection from support or continuation of declines).






















