US30: Consecutive breakouts signal an emerging downtrend
SPREADEX:DJI – When price rejects the high, the market begins to shift
On the 30-minute chart, price action is clearly signaling a loss of bullish momentum and a transition toward a bearish structure.
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🧠 Price Action Analysis
1. First Failed Breakout
Price initially broke above the ascending trendline that had held since early October — but failed to hold the breakout.
➤ A classic early warning of buyer exhaustion, often seen during distribution phases.
2. Multi-Layered Resistance Zone
The 46,725 – 46,779 region has become a clustered resistance zone, rejecting price repeatedly.
➤ Multiple rejections here suggest dominant selling pressure, with strong supply overhead.
3. Second False Breakout
A more subtle second breakout attempt followed — but again, price was swiftly rejected.
➤ Consecutive failed breakouts typically indicate a lack of conviction and precede sharp reversals.
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📉 Trend Structure Has Shifted Bearish
• Lower highs and lower lows now visible
• Price broke below the previous trendline
• Pullback attempts failed to reclaim broken support
• Market is respecting resistance instead of support
➡ These are clear signs of a short-term downtrend emerging.
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🔻 Trading Strategy: Favoring Sell Setups in the New Bearish Context
✴️ Scenario 1: Sell at Retest of Proven Resistance Zone
• Optimal Sell Zone: 46,700 – 46,750
• This area has already triggered two failed breakouts — a third touch could be the ideal trap for late buyers
• Watch for bearish rejection candles (pin bars, bearish engulfing, etc.)
Suggested Sell Limit Order:
→ Entry: 46,730
→ Stop Loss: 46,830 (above prior swing high)
→ TP1: 46,500
→ TP2: 46,300
→ Risk-Reward: At least 1:2
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✴️ Scenario 2: Momentum Sell on Breakdown of Local Support
• Trigger Level: 46,580 — if price breaks below with strong momentum (long red candle, increased volume)
• Confirms trend continuation after consolidation
Suggested Sell Breakout Order:
→ Entry: 46,580
→ Stop Loss: 46,680
→ Target: 46,350 – 46,200
→ Tip: Use smaller position size if breakout appears weak to avoid getting trapped in a fakeout
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🎯 Trade Management
• Only enter trades with clear price rejection or momentum confirmation
• Move SL to breakeven after TP1 is hit to lock in safety
• Exit the trade if price closes above 46,830 — that would invalidate the bearish thesis
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False breakouts leave a trail — for those who know how to read it. It's not a failure. It’s the market whispering that direction has changed.
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Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
