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NZDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for NZDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 88.302. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 86.785 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
GBPUSD Is Bearish! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.358. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.347 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USOIL Will Move Lower! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 62.604. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 60.001 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD Is Bearish! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.168. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.143 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
GBPUSD Is Very Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.351. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.370. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
AUDCHF Is Going Up! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for AUDCHF. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 0.522. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 0.524 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Tactical BTC Consolidation—Major Support Under Threat__________________________________________________________________________________ 🇬🇧 Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTCUSDT is consolidating in a tight range just below recent highs, as directionless momentum and cautious sentiment dominate. 🏁 Momentum : Weak bearish bias 📉, with little directional conviction—short/MF timeframes remain in soft seller control. 🔎 Key levels : Resistances (1D/4H): 122,300–124,400 / 119,800–119,900 (upper range) Supports (1D/4H): 114,640–114,800 (crucial pivot zone) / 111,900 (historic floor) 📊 Volumes : Normal to moderate levels, no extreme activity outside minor spikes on 6H/30min. ⏱️ Multi-timeframe signals : Higher timeframes (1D/12H/6H/4H) structurally remain up, but momentum is exhausted; 2H and lower show persistent selling, as key 114,640–114,800 support is repeatedly tested across TFs. 🛡️ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Neutral sell bias —confirms a lack of buying pressure and calls for tactical caution. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ In this bearish range setup, prefer a defensive and adaptive approach. 🌐 Global bias : Overall neutral sell bias unless 114,640 is broken—dropping below invalidates any hope for a rebound. 💡 Opportunities : Buy only on confirmed reversal above 114,800 with a tight stop. Tactical short/sell on rejection below 119,800, targeting the range base. Wait for a breakout above 119,900 (with volume + risk-on confirmation) before chasing upside. ⚠️ Risk zones / invalidations : Firm break below 114,640 = potential flush to 111,900. Loss of momentum on MTFTI lower TFs (2H/15min) = avoid aggressive long anticipations. 🌍 Macro catalysts : Jackson Hole anticipation heightens volatility and market nerves. Strong institutional presence (MicroStrategy/Google/Canada) backs mid-term demand. No on-chain capitulation = technical floor is safe for now, but no bullish impulse yet. 📝 Action plan : Entry: on confirmed rejection or rebound (114,800 or 119,900 depending on signal direction). Stop: just under 114,640 for longs, above 119,900 for shorts. TP1: 117,200 – TP2: 119,800 – TP3: 122,000 (R/R ~2–2.5). __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ All timeframes focus on the tight 114,640–119,900 range, with each downside extension challenging the pivot. 1D/12H/6H/4H: Underlying uptrend stalled, price stuck at key support without reclaiming main resistances—momentum is drained. 2H/1H/30min/15min: “Bear control” showing, with supports cracking or close to breaking, and intermittent buying volume. A break below 114,640 could trigger sharp downside volatility. Summary: Major divergence between stalled high TFs and persistent short-term selling explains the battle for trend; sustainable recovery requires aligned bullish signals across multiple horizons. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain context suggest a wait-and-see climate, with no imminent capitulation but increased caution. 🌐 Global traders await Jackson Hole, preserving volatility and a defensive posture amid ongoing geopolitical tension (Middle East). Capital flows remain cautious. 💸 Strong institutional involvement (MicroStrategy, Google, Canadian funds) reinforces Bitcoin’s structural support. 🔗 On-chain, most holders are in profit, altcoin OI is at record levels, and implied volatility remains low—a mix that could spark future volatility, but panic is absent. ✨ These macro/on-chain drivers reinforce the current sideways range and argue for a very defensive technical stance until a clear catalyst emerges. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTCUSDT is stuck in a compressed range with no clear directional trigger. Trend: Neutral seller bias overall, intraday bearish, key 114,640–114,800 support under heavy pressure. Best approach: wait for a clean defensive reversal at support, with strict stop management—no aggressive swings unless 119,800 is reclaimed. Jackson Hole remains the main macro catalyst; any surprise flow or event could quickly break the current stalemate. Stay nimble, watch 114,640–114,800 closely, and adapt rapidly to any macro or volume triggers! 📊 __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
USD/CHF SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT Hello, Friends! USD/CHF pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 1H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 0.804 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
NZDCHF Is Very Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for NZDCHF. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.479. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.476. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
AUDNZD Is Going Down! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for AUDNZD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.099. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.096 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
GOLD Will Grow! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 3,348.90. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 3,370.56 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
USDCHF Will Go Higher From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for USDCHF. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 0.806. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 0.811 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
EURGBP Will Go Up From Support! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for EURGBP. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.862. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.872 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2
GBPAUD Will Go Lower! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for GBPAUD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 2.079. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 2.059 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
# BTCUSD COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS# BTCUSD COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS **Asset**: Bitcoin / US Dollar (BTCUSD) **Reference Price**: $117,498.30 (August 16th, 2025) **Analysis Date**: August 17, 2025 **Market Cap**: ~$2.3 Trillion (estimated) ## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Bitcoin is experiencing a critical technical juncture following a sharp reversal from recent all-time highs above $124,500. The current price action suggests a complex corrective phase within a larger bullish structure. Multiple analytical methodologies indicate potential for both short-term volatility and longer-term continuation of the secular bull market. --- ## 1. ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ### Super Cycle Perspective (Monthly/Yearly) **Major Degree Classification**: - **Super Cycle**: Wave (III) in progress since 2020 lows - **Cycle Degree**: Wave III of (III) - the heart of the bull market - **Primary Degree**: Wave (5) of III nearing completion - **Current Position**: Complex corrective phase after new highs ### Primary Wave Structure (Weekly/Daily) **Wave Count Analysis**: - **Wave (1)**: Completed at $73,800 (March 2024) - **Wave (2)**: Corrective decline to $49,000 (August 2024) - **Wave (3)**: Extended impulse to $124,597 (August 2025) - **Wave (4)**: Current corrective phase in progress - **Wave (5)**: Projected final push higher ### Current Corrective Structure (Daily/4H) **Wave (4) Analysis**: - **Pattern Type**: Complex corrective structure (Double Zigzag W-X-Y) - **W Wave**: Sharp decline from $124,597 to $113,500 - **X Wave**: Corrective bounce to $119,800 (completed) - **Y Wave**: Currently unfolding, targeting $110,000-$114,000 **Internal Structure**: - **Subwave a**: Completed at $113,500 - **Subwave b**: Bounce to $119,800 (current level vicinity) - **Subwave c**: Expected decline to complete Wave (4) ### Elliott Wave Projections **Wave (4) Completion Targets**: - **Shallow Correction**: $114,000-$116,000 (38.2% retracement) - **Moderate Correction**: $110,000-$113,000 (50% retracement) - **Deep Correction**: $105,000-$108,000 (61.8% retracement) **Wave (5) Targets** (after correction completion): - **Minimum Target**: $135,000-$140,000 (equality with Wave 1) - **Extended Target**: $155,000-$165,000 (1.618 extension) - **Extreme Target**: $200,000-$220,000 (2.618 extension) ### Time Analysis **Wave (4) Duration Expectations**: - **Typical Duration**: 21-34 days (based on Wave (2) relationship) - **Current Progress**: Day 7 of correction (started August 12) - **Completion Window**: August 25 - September 5, 2025 **Wave (5) Timeline**: - **Duration**: 45-89 days (Fibonacci relationship) - **Completion**: December 2025 - February 2026 ### Invalidation Levels - **Critical Support**: $95,000 (breaks Wave (1) high) - **Alternate Count**: Below $95,000 suggests larger degree correction --- ## 2. HARMONIC PATTERN ANALYSIS ### Active Harmonic Formations **Bearish Deep Crab Pattern (Daily)** - **X to A**: Reference leg from $49,000 to $124,597 - **A to B**: 0.618 retracement targeting $119,200 - **B to C**: 0.886 retracement to $121,800 - **C to D (PRZ)**: 2.24-3.618 extension targeting $110,000-$114,000 - **Current Status**: C to D leg in progress - **Pattern Completion**: Expected within 1-2 weeks **Target Projections** (after pattern completion): - **T1**: $120,000 (38.2% CD retracement) - **T2**: $125,000 (61.8% CD retracement) - **T3**: $130,000 (78.6% CD retracement) **Bullish Bat Pattern (4-Hour)** - **X to A**: Swing high to swing low establishment - **A to B**: 0.382-0.500 retracement at $118,500 - **B to C**: 0.382-0.886 retracement at $115,200 - **C to D**: 0.886 XA retracement targeting $112,500-$114,000 - **Completion Status**: Near PRZ zone **ABCD Pattern (1-Hour)** - **AB = CD Structure**: Equal wave decline pattern - **A to B**: Initial decline $124,597 to $119,500 - **B to C**: Corrective bounce to $122,100 - **C to D**: 127.2-161.8% extension to $113,500-$115,000 - **Current Status**: Near completion of D point ### Gartley Pattern (Weekly) **Long-term Bullish Gartley**: - **X Point**: $15,500 (2020 low) - **A Point**: $69,000 (2021 high) - **B Point**: $15,500 (2022 low) - 0.786 retracement - **C Point**: $124,597 (current high area) - **D Point Projection**: $85,000-$95,000 (if pattern completes) **Note**: This larger pattern suggests potential for deeper correction if activated ### M & W Patterns **M-Top Formation (Daily)**: - **Left Peak**: $124,597 (August 12, 2025) - **Valley**: $113,500 (August 14, 2025) - **Right Peak**: Potential retest of highs - **Neckline**: $113,500 support area - **Break Target**: $102,000-$105,000 **W-Bottom Potential (4-Hour)**: - **First Low**: $113,500 (established) - **Second Low**: $114,000-$116,000 (current formation area) - **Neckline**: $119,800-$121,000 - **Breakout Target**: $125,000-$128,000 --- ## 3. WYCKOFF METHOD ANALYSIS ### Current Market Phase Assessment **Distribution vs Accumulation**: - **Recent Action**: Distribution characteristics after new highs - **Volume Pattern**: High volume on decline (supply) - **Price Action**: Sharp reversal from resistance - **Professional Activity**: Profit-taking by smart money ### Wyckoff Schematic (Daily) **Distribution Phase Analysis**: - **Preliminary Supply (PS)**: Weakness at $124,597 highs - **Buying Climax (BC)**: Failed attempt to sustain new highs - **Automatic Reaction (AR)**: Sharp decline to $113,500 - **Secondary Test (ST)**: Current bounce to $117,500-$119,800 - **Sign of Weakness (SOW)**: Expected if fails to reclaim $121,000 **Alternative Accumulation Scenario**: - **Spring Action**: Test below $113,500 with quick recovery - **Last Point of Support (LPS)**: $114,000-$116,000 area - **Sign of Strength (SOS)**: Break above $122,000 with volume ### Wyckoff Point & Figure Count **Horizontal Count**: From $113,500 to $124,597 range - **Count**: 11,097 points - **Projection Up**: $135,694 (124,597 + 11,097) - **Projection Down**: $102,403 (113,500 - 11,097) ### Volume Analysis (Wyckoff Context) **Recent Volume Characteristics**: - **High Volume Decline**: Professional distribution - **Low Volume Bounce**: Lack of demand (bearish) - **Volume Divergence**: Lower volume on recent highs - **Institutional Flow**: Net selling pressure evident ### Wyckoff Trading Strategy **Distribution Scenario** (60% probability): - **Short Setup**: Below $116,000 with volume - **Target**: $105,000-$110,000 (cause/effect) - **Stop**: Above $121,000 **Accumulation Scenario** (40% probability): - **Long Setup**: Above $122,000 with expanding volume - **Target**: $135,000-$140,000 - **Stop**: Below $113,000 --- ## 4. W.D. GANN THEORY ANALYSIS ### Square of 9 Analysis **Current Position**: $117,498 (Square root ≈ 342.8) **Natural Resistance Levels**: - **345°**: $119,025 (immediate resistance) - **360°/0°**: $129,600 (major resistance) - **15°**: $131,769 (significant resistance) - **30°**: $135,000 (major Gann resistance) - **45°**: $139,365 (strong resistance) **Natural Support Levels**: - **330°**: $108,900 (significant support) - **315°**: $99,225 (major support) - **300°**: $90,000 (critical support) - **270°**: $72,900 (extreme support) ### Gann Angles Analysis **Primary Angle Lines** (from $15,500 2020 low): - **1x1 Angle** (45°): $85,000 (major rising support) - **2x1 Angle** (63.75°): $105,000 (steep support) - **1x2 Angle** (26.25°): $65,000 (gentle support) - **1x4 Angle** (14.04°): $45,000 (long-term support) **Secondary Angles** (from $69,000 2021 high): - **1x1 Declining**: $95,000 (resistance turned support) - **2x1 Declining**: $110,000 (current support area) ### Gann Time Theory **Active Cycles** (August-December 2025): - **30-Day Cycle**: Major turn August 25-30, 2025 - **60-Day Cycle**: Significant reversal October 1-5, 2025 - **90-Day Cycle**: Important turn November 15-20, 2025 - **180-Day Cycle**: Major cycle peak February 2026 **Historical Analysis**: - **Previous 90-day high**: May 15, 2025 - **Next projected turn**: November 15, 2025 - **Annual cycle**: December typically strong for Bitcoin ### Square of Price and Time **Price-Time Equality** (from $49,000 low): - **123 days elapsed**: 123 × $500 = $61,500 move = $110,500 target - **180 days projection**: 180 × $500 = $90,000 move = $139,000 target ### Gann Master Charts **Price Forecasting** (September-December 2025): - **Conservative**: $125,000-$130,000 (based on 1x1 angles) - **Moderate**: $135,000-$145,000 (Square of 9 resistance) - **Aggressive**: $155,000-$165,000 (major Gann projections) **Time Forecasting**: - **Immediate Turn**: August 28-30 (30-day cycle) - **Intermediate High**: October 15-20 (60-day cycle) - **Major Peak**: December 15-25 (annual pattern) ### Ranges in Harmony **Current Range**: $49,000 to $124,597 ($75,597 range) - **1/8 Range**: $58,449 (major support) - **2/8 Range**: $68,199 (significant support) - **3/8 Range**: $77,948 (moderate support) - **4/8 Range**: $86,798 (midpoint - critical) - **5/8 Range**: $96,648 (resistance turned support) - **6/8 Range**: $106,498 (key current support) - **7/8 Range**: $116,347 (current price area) --- ## 5. ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO ANALYSIS ### Ichimoku Components (Daily Chart) **Tenkan-sen** (9-period): $118,450 - **Current Relation**: Price slightly below Tenkan - **Trend**: Flattening after sharp rise - **Signal**: Dynamic resistance on bounces **Kijun-sen** (26-period): $115,200 - **Current Relation**: Price above Kijun (bullish bias) - **Trend**: Rising but decelerating - **Key Level**: Critical support for trend continuation **Senkou Span A** (Leading Span A): $120,500 **Senkou Span B** (Leading Span B): $108,900 - **Cloud Status**: Bullish cloud (Span A > Span B) - **Cloud Thickness**: Strong support (11,600 points) - **Price vs Cloud**: Above cloud (bullish long-term) **Chikou Span** (Lagging Span): $117,498 - **26 periods ago**: $89,500 - **Momentum**: Strongly positive - **Trend Confirmation**: Supports bullish bias ### Ichimoku Signal Analysis **TK Cross** (Tenkan-Kijun Crossover): - **Current Status**: Tenkan above Kijun (bullish) - **Signal Strength**: Weakening (gap narrowing) - **Risk**: Bearish cross if Tenkan falls below Kijun **Kumo Breakout**: - **Current Position**: Price above cloud (bullish) - **Support Zone**: $108,900-$120,500 (cloud area) - **Risk Level**: Break below $108,900 (cloud bottom) **Chikou Span Analysis**: - **Clear Space**: Path relatively clear - **Resistance**: Minor resistance at $125,000 area - **Support**: Strong momentum reading ### Multi-Timeframe Ichimoku **4-Hour Ichimoku**: - **Tenkan-sen**: $117,800 - **Kijun-sen**: $116,200 - **Cloud**: Bearish (red cloud) - **Price**: Below cloud (bearish short-term) **1-Hour Ichimoku**: - **Trend**: Neutral to bearish - **Cloud**: Thin bearish cloud - **Signal**: Waiting for direction ### Ichimoku Strategy **Bullish Scenario**: - **Entry**: Above $120,500 (cloud top) - **Target**: $125,000-$130,000 - **Stop**: $115,000 (below Kijun-sen) **Bearish Scenario**: - **Entry**: Below $115,000 (Kijun-sen break) - **Target**: $108,900 (cloud bottom) - **Stop**: $120,500 (above cloud) --- ## 6. JAPANESE CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS ### Recent Major Patterns (Daily Chart) **Bearish Engulfing Pattern** (August 12-13, 2025): - **Formation**: Large red candle engulfing previous green - **Location**: At all-time high resistance ($124,597) - **Volume**: Extremely high (distribution) - **Implication**: Strong reversal signal - **Target**: $110,000-$115,000 **Evening Star Formation** (August 11-13, 2025): - **First Candle**: Strong bullish to new highs - **Second Candle**: Small-bodied doji/spinning top - **Third Candle**: Strong bearish engulfing - **Confirmation**: Complete reversal pattern - **Reliability**: Very high (at major resistance) ### Multi-Timeframe Candlestick Analysis **Weekly Chart**: - **Pattern**: Shooting star formation - **Upper Shadow**: Long rejection of highs - **Body**: Small relative to shadow - **Volume**: Above average - **Implication**: Weekly reversal signal **4-Hour Chart**: - **Recent Pattern**: Three black crows - **Formation**: Three consecutive red candles - **Each Closing**: Lower than previous - **Volume**: Increasing on each decline - **Target**: Continuation lower **1-Hour Chart**: - **Current Pattern**: Hammer formation potential - **Location**: Near $117,000 support - **Lower Shadow**: Testing support with rejection - **Confirmation**: Needed with bullish follow-through ### Advanced Candlestick Combinations **Dark Cloud Cover**: - **Formation**: Bearish reversal at highs - **Penetration**: Over 50% of previous candle - **Volume**: Higher than average - **Target**: $112,000-$115,000 **Three Outside Down**: - **Day 1**: Small bullish candle - **Day 2**: Bearish engulfing - **Day 3**: Continuation lower - **Status**: Pattern complete - **Implication**: Strong bearish signal ### Candlestick-Based Targets **Pattern Projections**: - **Evening Star**: $108,000-$113,000 - **Bearish Engulfing**: $110,000-$116,000 - **Shooting Star**: $105,000-$112,000 - **Three Black Crows**: $112,000-$118,000 --- ## 7. RSI ANALYSIS (Multi-Timeframe) ### Daily RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 52.8 - **Condition**: Neutral territory - **Trend**: Declining from overbought levels (85+) - **Divergence**: Potential bearish divergence forming - **Support**: 50 level critical for bullish bias - **Resistance**: 60 level for bullish confirmation **RSI Pattern Analysis**: - **Peak**: 87.2 at recent highs (extreme overbought) - **Current Decline**: Healthy cooling off - **Target**: 40-45 zone (oversold bounce area) - **Trend**: Still in bullish structure above 50 ### 4-Hour RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 45.2 - **Condition**: Approaching oversold - **Momentum**: Declining momentum slowing - **Pattern**: Potential double bottom forming - **Support**: 40 level key bounce zone ### 1-Hour RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 48.7 - **Condition**: Neutral with downward bias - **Trend**: Sideways consolidation - **Levels**: 45 support, 55 resistance - **Signal**: Waiting for direction ### Weekly RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 68.5 - **Condition**: Strong but cooling from overbought - **Trend**: Still in strong bullish territory - **Historical**: Room for further upside long-term - **Support**: 60 level major support ### RSI Divergence Analysis **Bearish Divergences**: - **Daily**: Higher price, lower RSI peaks - **4-Hour**: Confirmed bearish divergence - **Implication**: Correction expected **Target RSI Levels**: - **Oversold Bounce**: RSI 35-40 (price $105,000-$110,000) - **Neutral Reset**: RSI 45-55 (price $112,000-$118,000) - **Bullish Resumption**: RSI >60 (price >$125,000) --- ## 8. BOLLINGER BANDS ANALYSIS ### Daily Bollinger Bands **Current Configuration**: - **Upper Band**: $127,500 (2 std dev) - **Middle Band (SMA20)**: $115,800 - **Lower Band**: $104,100 (2 std dev) - **Band Width**: Extremely wide (high volatility) **Price Action**: - **Current Position**: Between middle and upper band - **Recent**: Rejected from upper band (resistance) - **Trend**: Moving toward middle band - **Target**: Lower band test possible ($104,100) ### Bollinger Band Signals **Band Rejection**: - **Upper Band Touch**: Strong resistance at $127,500 - **Volume**: High volume rejection (bearish) - **Pattern**: Classic sell signal from upper band - **Target**: Middle band ($115,800) then lower band **Squeeze Analysis**: - **Current Status**: Bands expanding (high volatility) - **Previous**: Squeeze before breakout to highs - **Next Phase**: Continued expansion expected - **Direction**: Bias toward lower band ### 4-Hour Bollinger Bands **Configuration**: - **Upper Band**: $122,500 - **Middle Band**: $117,200 - **Lower Band**: $111,900 - **Position**: Near middle band (neutral) ### 1-Hour Bollinger Bands **Configuration**: - **Upper Band**: $119,500 - **Middle Band**: $117,000 - **Lower Band**: $114,500 - **Trend**: Consolidating within bands ### Bollinger Strategy **Sell Setup**: - **Trigger**: Break below middle band ($115,800) - **Target**: Lower band ($104,100) - **Stop**: Above upper band ($127,500) **Buy Setup**: - **Trigger**: Bounce from lower band with RSI oversold - **Target**: Return to middle then upper band - **Stop**: Sustained break below lower band --- ## 9. VWAP ANALYSIS ### Daily VWAP **Current VWAP**: $118,650 - **Price vs VWAP**: Below VWAP (bearish) - **Distance**: $1,152 below (significant) - **Trend**: VWAP declining (distribution) - **Reclaim Level**: Above $118,650 bullish ### VWAP Deviation Bands **Standard Deviations**: - **+3σ**: $135,200 (extreme resistance) - **+2σ**: $128,900 (strong resistance) - **+1σ**: $123,800 (moderate resistance) - **VWAP**: $118,650 (pivot) - **-1σ**: $113,500 (moderate support) - **-2σ**: $108,350 (strong support) - **-3σ**: $103,200 (extreme support) **Current Position**: Between VWAP and -1σ (slight bearish bias) ### Weekly VWAP **Level**: $92,500 - **Price vs VWAP**: Significantly above (bullish long-term) - **Trend**: Rising strongly - **Support**: Major support level ### Monthly VWAP **Level**: $78,200 - **Distance**: $39,298 above (extremely bullish) - **Trend**: Steep upward trajectory - **Significance**: Long-term bull market confirmation ### VWAP Trading Strategy **Mean Reversion**: - **Current**: Price below daily VWAP - **Entry**: Near -1σ ($113,500) with RSI oversold - **Target**: Return to VWAP ($118,650) - **Extended**: +1σ ($123,800) **Breakout Strategy**: - **Bullish**: Sustained reclaim of VWAP - **Target**: Upper deviation bands - **Bearish**: Break below -1σ with volume - **Target**: -2σ ($108,350) --- ## 10. MOVING AVERAGES ANALYSIS ### Simple Moving Averages (Daily) **Current Alignment**: - **20 SMA**: $115,800 (declining) - **50 SMA**: $108,500 (rising) - **100 SMA**: $95,200 (rising strongly) - **200 SMA**: $78,500 (rising strongly) **Market Structure**: - **Short-term**: Bearish (20 SMA declining) - **Medium-term**: Bullish (50/100 SMA rising) - **Long-term**: Strongly bullish (200 SMA steep rise) ### Exponential Moving Averages (Daily) **EMA Configuration**: - **12 EMA**: $116,800 (immediate resistance) - **26 EMA**: $113,200 (key support) - **50 EMA**: $107,500 (major support) - **100 EMA**: $92,800 (long-term support) ### Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) **Daily MACD**: - **MACD Line**: 2,450 (declining from peaks) - **Signal Line**: 3,120 (bearish crossover) - **Histogram**: -670 (negative momentum) - **Trend**: Bearish momentum building ### MA Support/Resistance Levels **Resistance Cluster**: $115,800-$116,800 - **20 SMA & 12 EMA**: Major resistance zone - **Significance**: Key level for trend continuation **Support Cluster**: $107,500-$108,500 - **50 SMA & 50 EMA**: Important support - **Break Below**: Would signal deeper correction ### Golden/Death Cross Analysis **Current Status**: - **50/200 SMA**: Golden Cross active (bullish) - **20/50 SMA**: Death Cross developing (bearish short-term) **Implications**: - **Long-term**: Bull market intact - **Short-term**: Corrective phase expected --- ## 11. MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS ### 5-Minute Chart Analysis **Trend**: Choppy, range-bound **Range**: $116,500-$118,500 **Support**: $116,800 (recent lows) **Resistance**: $118,200 (intraday highs) **Volume**: Below average (consolidation) **Pattern**: Symmetrical triangle **Breakout**: Awaiting direction (slight bearish bias) **Target Up**: $119,500 **Target Down**: $115,500 ### 15-Minute Chart Analysis **Trend**: Sideways to slightly bearish **Pattern**: Descending triangle **Support**: $117,000 (horizontal) **Resistance**: $118,500-$119,000 (declining) **Volume**: Decreasing (coiling for move) **RSI**: Neutral (45-55 range) **MACD**: Slight bearish bias **Breakout Expected**: Within 6-12 hours **Target**: $115,000 (if breaks down) ### 30-Minute Chart Analysis **Trend**: Corrective within larger uptrend **Structure**: ABC correction pattern **A Wave**: $124,597 to $113,500 **B Wave**: $113,500 to $119,800 (complete) **C Wave**: In progress, targeting $110,000-$114,000 **Time**: 2-4 hours for completion **Volume**: Declining on bounces (bearish) **Next Phase**: Reversal expected after C completion ### 1-Hour Chart Analysis **Trend**: Bearish correction **Elliott Wave**: Wave 4 of larger degree **Pattern**: Complex corrective (WXY) **Support**: $114,000-$116,000 (major) **Resistance**: $120,000-$122,000 (key level) **Ichimoku**: Below cloud (bearish) **RSI**: Approaching oversold (40-45) **Target**: $112,000-$115,000 (correction completion) **Timeline**: 1-3 days ### 4-Hour Chart Analysis **Primary Trend**: Bullish correction within uptrend **Wave Structure**: Intermediate Wave (4) **Pattern**: Double zigzag (W-X-Y) **Current Phase**: Y wave of correction **Support Zone**: $110,000-$115,000 (critical) **Resistance Zone**: $122,000-$125,000 (major) **Volume Profile**: Selling pressure evident **Harmonic Patterns**: Multiple bearish patterns active **Completion**: Expected within 3-7 days ### Intraday Summary (5M-1H) **Overall Bias**: Bearish for next 12-24 hours **Key Level**: $117,000 support break would accelerate down **Target**: $114,000-$115,500 (initial) **Resistance**: $119,000-$120,000 (strong) **Strategy**: Fade bounces, buy oversold at support --- ## 12. SWING TRADING ANALYSIS (4H-Monthly) ### 4-Hour Swing Perspective **Trend**: Corrective phase in larger uptrend **Current Phase**: Wave (4) correction **Structure**: Complex double zigzag **Support**: $110,000-$115,000 (major confluence) **Resistance**: $122,000-$125,000 (key breakout level) **Pattern**: Large bull flag or pennant **Volume**: Distribution characteristics **Timeline**: 1-2 weeks for completion **Target**: $135,000-$145,000 (after correction) ### Daily Swing Analysis **Major Trend**: Secular bull market continuation **Current Wave**: Primary degree Wave (4) **Correction Type**: Time and price correction **Expected Depth**: 15-25% ($105,000-$115,000) **Duration**: 3-6 weeks total **Support Confluence**: $108,000-$115,000 **Resistance**: $125,000-$130,000 (reclaim needed) **Next Phase**: Final Wave (5) to new highs **Ultimate Target**: $150,000-$200,000 (2026) ### Weekly Swing Analysis **Super Trend**: Multi-year bull market **Current Cycle**: Wave III of larger degree **Phase**: Late-stage correction before final push **Major Support**: $85,000-$105,000 (weekly demand) **Major Resistance**: $130,000-$140,000 (weekly supply) **Seasonal Factor**: Q4 historically strong for Bitcoin **Institutional Flow**: Continued adoption trend **Long-term View**: $200,000+ by 2026-2027 ### Monthly Swing Analysis **Decade Trend**: Exponential adoption curve **Current Position**: Mid-cycle bull run **Cycle Stage**: Institutional adoption phase **Monthly Support**: $75,000-$90,000 (major crash protection) **Monthly Resistance**: $150,000-$200,000 (cycle targets) **Fundamental Backdrop**: Growing ETF adoption, corporate treasury **Regulatory Environment**: Increasingly favorable **Ultimate Targets**: $500,000-$1,000,000 (2030s) ### Swing Trading Strategy **Accumulation Approach**: - **Entry Range**: $105,000-$120,000 (scale in) - **Core Position**: 70% in range - **Breakout Addition**: 30% above $130,000 - **Stop Loss**: $95,000 (major trend invalidation) - **Target Sequence**: $135,000 → $155,000 → $180,000 - **Timeline**: 6-18 months **Risk Management**: - **Position Size**: 5-15% of portfolio (based on risk tolerance) - **Diversification**: Consider Bitcoin miners, crypto ETFs - **Hedge Options**: Put options for downside protection --- ## 13. KEY LEVELS & PRICE TARGETS ### Critical Support Levels (Priority Order) 1. **$116,000-$117,500** - Immediate support (current area) 2. **$114,000-$115,500** - Minor support (harmonic targets) 3. **$110,000-$113,000** - Moderate support (Elliott Wave targets, VWAP -1σ) 4. **$105,000-$108,000** - Major support (Elliott Wave 61.8%, Bollinger lower band) 5. **$95,000-$100,000** - Critical support (previous Wave 1 high, psychological) 6. **$85,000-$90,000** - Ultimate support (Gann angles, monthly demand) ### Critical Resistance Levels (Priority Order) 1. **$119,000-$120,000** - Immediate resistance (VWAP, previous support) 2. **$122,000-$125,000** - Minor resistance (harmonic retracements, MA cluster) 3. **$127,000-$130,000** - Moderate resistance (Bollinger upper, psychological) 4. **$135,000-$140,000** - Major resistance (Elliott Wave 5 targets) 5. **$150,000-$155,000** - Strong resistance (extended Elliott targets) 6. **$180,000-$200,000** - Ultimate resistance (super cycle projections) ### Short-term Targets (Next 1-4 weeks) **Bearish Scenario** (65% probability): - **Initial**: $114,000-$116,000 (correction continuation) - **Extended**: $108,000-$112,000 (deeper correction) - **Extreme**: $105,000-$108,000 (maximum correction) **Bullish Scenario** (35% probability): - **Breakout**: Above $122,000 (correction failure) - **Target**: $130,000-$135,000 (resumption higher) - **Extended**: $140,000-$145,000 (accelerated move) ### Medium-term Targets (Next 1-6 months) **After Correction Completion**: - **Wave 5 Minimum**: $135,000-$145,000 - **Wave 5 Extended**: $155,000-$165,000 - **Wave 5 Extreme**: $180,000-$200,000 - **Timeline**: December 2025 - March 2026 ### Long-term Targets (6-24 months) **Super Cycle Completion**: - **Conservative**: $200,000-$250,000 - **Moderate**: $300,000-$400,000 - **Aggressive**: $500,000-$750,000 - **Timeline**: 2026-2027 --- ## 14. VOLUME ANALYSIS & MARKET STRUCTURE ### Volume Profile Analysis **High Volume Nodes (Value Areas)**: - **Primary Node**: $85,000-$95,000 (28% of volume - major support) - **Secondary Node**: $105,000-$115,000 (22% of volume - current battle zone) - **Tertiary Node**: $65,000-$75,000 (18% of volume - deep support) **Point of Control (POC)**: $89,500 (highest volume level) **Value Area High (VAH)**: $118,000 (fair value upper bound) **Value Area Low (VAL)**: $72,000 (fair value lower bound) ### Volume Trend Analysis **Recent Volume Characteristics**: - **New High Volume**: Extremely high at $124,597 (climactic) - **Decline Volume**: Above average (selling pressure) - **Bounce Volume**: Below average (weak demand) - **Current Trend**: Declining volume on bounces (bearish) ### On-Balance Volume (OBV) **Trend Analysis**: - **Recent Peak**: At all-time highs (confirming price) - **Current Action**: Declining with price - **Divergence**: No major divergence yet - **Next Signal**: Break below June OBV levels would be bearish ### Volume Oscillators **Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)**: - **Current Reading**: -0.25 (distribution) - **Trend**: Declining from positive territory - **Signal**: Below -0.20 confirms selling pressure **Volume Rate of Change (VROC)**: - **Current**: +75% (well above average) - **Pattern**: High volume associated with decline - **Implication**: Professional distribution occurring ### Accumulation/Distribution Line **Current Trend**: Declining (distribution phase) **Recent Action**: Sharp decline from highs **Divergence**: Confirming price action **Signal**: Recovery above recent highs needed for bullish confirmation --- ## 15. MARKET SENTIMENT & INTERMARKET ANALYSIS ### Bitcoin Sentiment Indicators **Fear & Greed Index**: 25 (Fear territory) - **Recent Change**: From Extreme Greed (85) to Fear - **Historical Pattern**: Fear levels often mark good buying opportunities - **Contrarian Signal**: Current fear suggests potential bottom formation ### Institutional Activity **ETF Flows**: - **Recent Trend**: Net outflows during correction - **Major Players**: BlackRock, Fidelity showing mixed flows - **Institutional Sentiment**: Cautious after rapid gains **Corporate Treasury Activity**: - **MicroStrategy**: Continues accumulation strategy - **Other Corporates**: Reduced activity at current levels - **Sovereign Wealth**: Exploratory positions being built ### Correlation Analysis **Traditional Markets**: - **S&P 500 Correlation**: 0.45 (moderate positive) - **Gold Correlation**: -0.15 (slight negative) - **DXY Correlation**: -0.65 (strong negative) - **10-Year Treasury**: -0.35 (moderate negative) **Crypto Market**: - **Ethereum Correlation**: 0.88 (very strong) - **Altcoin Correlation**: 0.75 (strong) - **Market Dominance**: 52.5% (stable) ### Macroeconomic Environment **Federal Reserve Policy**: - **Current Stance**: Accommodative - **Rate Environment**: Supportive for risk assets - **Forward Guidance**: Stable policy expected **Global Liquidity**: - **USD Liquidity**: Ample - **Cross-border Flows**: Improving - **Risk Appetite**: Recovering from recent caution --- ## 16. DERIVATIVES & OPTIONS ANALYSIS ### Futures Market Structure **Contango/Backwardation**: - **Current Structure**: Slight contango (normal) - **3-Month Basis**: +2.1% annualized - **6-Month Basis**: +4.8% annualized - **Trend**: Normalizing from extreme levels ### Options Market **Put/Call Ratio**: 1.45 (elevated fear) **Implied Volatility**: 68% (high but declining from 85%) **Volatility Term Structure**: Steep (near-term elevated) **Key Option Strikes**: - **$120,000 Calls**: Heavy resistance - **$110,000 Puts**: Major support - **$100,000 Puts**: Psychological support ### Perpetual Swaps **Funding Rates**: -0.02% (slightly negative) **Open Interest**: Declining (position unwinding) **Long/Short Ratio**: 55/45 (slight bullish bias) --- ## 17. RISK ASSESSMENT & SCENARIOS ### Primary Scenario - Continued Correction (65% Probability) **Process**: Elliott Wave (4) completion **Timeline**: 2-4 weeks additional correction **Target Zone**: $108,000-$115,000 **Catalyst**: Technical correction, profit-taking **Risk Factors**: Deeper than expected correction **Trading Strategy**: - **Wait for oversold levels**: RSI <40, price <$112,000 - **Scale in gradually**: 25% positions every $3,000 decline - **Stop loss**: Below $95,000 (trend invalidation) ### Secondary Scenario - Correction Failure (25% Probability) **Process**: V-bottom reversal from current levels **Catalyst**: Strong institutional buying, ETF inflows **Timeline**: 1-2 weeks to new highs **Target**: $130,000-$140,000 initially **Risk**: False breakout leading to deeper correction **Trading Strategy**: - **Breakout Entry**: Above $122,000 with volume - **Stop Loss**: $115,000 - **Target**: $135,000 initial ### Bear Scenario - Major Correction (10% Probability) **Process**: Larger degree Wave 4 correction **Catalyst**: Regulatory concerns, macro shock **Timeline**: 2-6 months **Target Zone**: $85,000-$95,000 **Probability**: Low due to strong adoption trends **Risk Management**: - **Hard Stop**: $95,000 (major trend break) - **Position Sizing**: Reduce exposure significantly - **Hedging**: Consider put options --- ## 18. TRADING STRATEGIES & EXECUTION ### Scalping Strategy (5M-15M timeframes) **Market Hours**: Focus on high liquidity periods **Range Trading**: - **Buy**: $116,500-$117,000 (support bounces) - **Sell**: $118,500-$119,000 (resistance) - **Stop**: $300-500 outside range - **Target**: $800-1,200 profit per trade **Breakout Scalping**: - **Long Setup**: Break above $119,000 with volume - **Short Setup**: Break below $116,000 with volume - **Risk/Reward**: 1:2 minimum ratio ### Day Trading Strategy (15M-1H timeframes) **Trend Following Setup**: - **Entry**: Direction of 1H trend with RSI confirmation - **Stop**: Beyond recent swing high/low - **Target**: Next significant resistance/support - **Position Size**: 1-2% risk per trade **Mean Reversion Setup**: - **Entry**: Extreme RSI levels (>70 or <30) - **Direction**: Counter-trend back to mean - **Stop**: New extreme in same direction - **Target**: VWAP or key moving average ### Swing Trading Strategy (4H-Daily timeframes) **Correction Completion Setup**: - **Entry Zone**: $108,000-$115,000 (scale in) - **Confirmation**: RSI oversold + bullish divergence - **Stop Loss**: $95,000 (major support break) - **Target 1**: $125,000 (25% position) - **Target 2**: $140,000 (50% position) - **Target 3**: $160,000 (25% position) - **Timeline**: 3-12 months **Position Management**: - **Initial Risk**: 3-5% of portfolio - **Add on weakness**: Up to 10% total allocation - **Trail stops**: Below major swing lows - **Profit taking**: At resistance confluences ### Long-term Investment Strategy (Weekly-Monthly) **Dollar Cost Averaging**: - **Allocation**: 5-20% of investment portfolio - **Frequency**: Weekly or monthly purchases - **Range**: Accumulate heavily below $120,000 - **Reduce**: Above $150,000 - **Target**: 5-10 year hold period **Strategic Accumulation**: - **Phase 1**: Current correction ($105,000-$120,000) - **Phase 2**: Major correction if occurs ($85,000-$105,000) - **Hold Through**: All intermediate volatility - **Exit Strategy**: Partial above $200,000 --- ## 19. ADVANCED PATTERN RECOGNITION ### Fractal Analysis **Current Fractal Structure**: - **Major Fractal**: 2020-2025 bull market cycle - **Intermediate Fractal**: March 2024 - Present wave structure - **Minor Fractal**: August 2025 correction pattern - **Micro Fractal**: Daily price action patterns **Fractal Projections**: - **Self-similarity**: Current correction mirrors March 2024 structure - **Time Ratios**: 0.618 and 1.618 Fibonacci relationships - **Price Ratios**: Similar percentage corrections expected ### Market Geometry **Sacred Geometry Levels**: - **Golden Ratio Points**: $108,697 (61.8% correction) - **Phi Projections**: $138,449 (1.618 extension) - **Square Root Relationships**: Key support/resistance ### Cycle Harmonics **Price Cycle Analysis**: - **210-Day Cycle**: Major intermediate cycle - **89-Day Cycle**: Current correction cycle - **34-Day Cycle**: Short-term turning points - **Confluence**: Multiple cycles bottoming late August --- ## 20. FINAL SYNTHESIS & RECOMMENDATIONS ### Technical Confluence Assessment **Overall Score**: 7.1/10 (Moderately Bearish Near-term, Bullish Long-term) **Bearish Factors** (Near-term): - Elliott Wave (4) correction in progress - Multiple harmonic patterns targeting lower levels - Wyckoff distribution characteristics - Candlestick reversal patterns at highs - RSI and momentum indicators declining **Bullish Factors** (Medium/Long-term): - Secular bull market structure intact - Strong volume support at lower levels - Institutional adoption continuing - Favorable macro environment - Historical cycle patterns supportive ### Primary Trading Recommendation **Strategy**: Patience for better entry opportunities **Current Assessment**: Wait for correction completion **Preferred Entry**: $108,000-$115,000 (scale in approach) **Risk Management**: Hard stop below $95,000 (major trend invalidation) **Target Sequence**: $125,000 → $140,000 → $165,000 → $200,000+ **Timeline**: 6-18 months for major targets ### Tactical Approach by Timeframe **Intraday (Next 1-7 days)**: - **Bias**: Bearish to neutral - **Strategy**: Fade bounces, wait for oversold - **Key Levels**: $117,000 support, $120,000 resistance - **Risk**: High volatility expected **Swing (Next 2-8 weeks)**: - **Bias**: Bearish then bullish - **Strategy**: Accumulate on weakness below $115,000 - **Target**: Correction completion then reversal - **Risk**: 15-25% downside possible **Position (Next 3-12 months)**: - **Bias**: Strongly bullish - **Strategy**: Build core positions on any weakness - **Target**: New all-time highs $150,000-$200,000 - **Risk**: Major trend change below $85,000 ### Portfolio Allocation Recommendations **Conservative Investors**: - **Current Allocation**: 2-5% (wait for lower levels) - **Target Allocation**: 5-10% (on correction completion) - **Strategy**: DCA approach, ETF exposure preferred **Moderate Risk Investors**: - **Current Allocation**: 5-10% (begin scaling) - **Target Allocation**: 10-15% (full position on weakness) - **Strategy**: Swing trading with core position **Aggressive Traders**: - **Current Allocation**: 10-15% (active trading) - **Target Allocation**: 15-25% (leveraged strategies possible) - **Strategy**: Full spectrum trading across timeframes ### Risk Management Framework **Position Sizing**: - **Maximum Risk**: 20% portfolio (aggressive) - **Moderate Risk**: 10-15% portfolio - **Conservative**: 5% portfolio maximum **Stop Loss Strategy**: - **Tight Stops**: Day trading (2-5%) - **Swing Stops**: Major support breaks (10-15%) - **Position Stops**: Trend invalidation (20-25%) **Profit Taking**: - **Scale out**: At major resistance levels - **Trail stops**: Below significant support levels - **Long-term holds**: Multi-year perspective --- ## CONCLUSION Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture following the recent all-time highs above $124,500. The comprehensive technical analysis across multiple methodologies strongly suggests a corrective phase is underway, presenting both challenges and opportunities for different trading approaches. **Key Findings**: 1. **Elliott Wave analysis** indicates Wave (4) correction targeting $108,000-$115,000 2. **Harmonic patterns** confirm potential deeper pullback before resumption 3. **Wyckoff method** shows distribution characteristics but within larger accumulation 4. **Gann analysis** supports both correction targets and longer-term bullish projections 5. **Traditional indicators** confirm corrective phase with oversold bounce opportunities **Strategic Outlook**: The analysis strongly favors patience in the near-term, allowing the current correction to complete before establishing significant long positions. The secular bull market remains intact, and any weakness below $115,000 should be viewed as an accumulation opportunity for the next major leg higher toward $150,000-$200,000+ targets. **Final Recommendation**: Maintain a constructively bullish medium-term outlook while respecting the current corrective phase. Use any weakness below $115,000 as an opportunity to build positions for the anticipated final wave higher in this major cycle, expected to begin in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sunya
EURUSD Will Go Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.170. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.134. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
NZDUSD Will Move Lower! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for NZDUSD. Time Frame: 15m Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 0.592. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 0.591 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
GBPCAD Is Very Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for GBPCAD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 1.872. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.877 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Bitcoin’s tipping point zone: Key macro catalysts in play__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is currently consolidating below major cycle highs, with upward momentum losing steam as sellers defend critical resistance. Failed breakout attempts and increasing volatility near key support hint at growing uncertainty. Momentum : The underlying trend remains bullish 📈, but short-term momentum is fading; daily remains up, but lower timeframes are softening. Key levels : Resistances (D/12H/6H): 120,000–124,000 (zone) — main overhead barrier. Supports (D/12H/6H): 116,926 (multi-TF pivot), then 111,119–112,000 (major safety zone). Volumes : Daily volumes are normal, but 2H is flagging extreme moves — any break under 116,926 could unleash big moves. Multi-timeframe signals : The uptrend persists from 1D to 4H, but there's a clear bearish transition in 2H and below. Structure stays bullish as long as 116,926 holds, with risk mounting on further retests. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context : The “Risk On / Risk Off Indicator” is in "neutral sell" mode, showing a slight relative deterioration versus US tech stocks — confirming the slowdown in momentum, though no total reversal yet. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ With price compressed under major resistance, the strategy remains one of tactical caution and reactive setups. Global bias : Cautiously bullish bias, maintained as long as 116,926 holds — this is the key invalidation threshold. Opportunities : → Short-term long scalp possible if a seller exhaustion (ISPD DIV BUY on 15min) forms near 116,926/116,000, tight stop required. → Swing long only if price reclaims and confirms above 119,119–120,000 zone. Risk zones / invalidations : → Clear break and close under 116,926 on H1/2H = bullish invalidation, next target 111,119. → Failure/rejection at 123,164–124,000 = exhaustion, beware false breakouts. Macro catalysts : → Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (Aug 22), key for market direction. → Massive BTC options expiration (~39K BTC, max pain near 118K), watch for post-expiry volatility. → Institutional inflows strong, but “pin risk” around options expiry could limit upside. Action plan : Entry: Wait for confirmed rebound on 116,926 (scalp or swing depending). Stop: Below 116,000 (short-term) / Below 111,119 (swing). TP1: 119,119 | TP2: 120,000 | TP3: 123,164–124,000 (if breakout). R/R: Attractive (>2 if setup respected, <1 if chasing or volume extreme). __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Across timeframes, the key story is compression under major resistance, a pivotal multi-TF support at 116,926, and mounting nervousness in the lower frames. Daily/12H/6H : Upward structure intact, but waning momentum under 120,000–124,000 signals possible transition to consolidation/correction if 116,926 is lost. 4H/2H/1H : Descending wick sequences, repeated support tests, rising volume, and a bearish momentum transition (MTFTI turning down in 1H/2H). 30min/15min : Aggressive selling pressure, local capitulation, and a bullish divergence on 15min (ISPD DIV BUY) suggest a potential but fragile rebound. 116,926 remains a true battleground: a breakdown here aligns bearish signals across TFs, while a solid rebound could quickly reclaim 119,119–120,000. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain dynamics are in focus, with the Fed’s Jackson Hole stance, ongoing geopolitical caution, and high-risk BTC options expiration all in play. Macro events : US retail sales beat, revisions up, and a widening 30Y–5Y yield spread keep risk premiums afloat. Geopolitical events remain tense but have yet to disrupt the main trend. Bitcoin analysis : Options expiry (~39K BTC, max pain ~118K) could drive “pin” or sharp volatility. Institutional flows (Brevan Howard, IBIT) remain strong, but options-driven price action may cap upside for now. Defending the 116–117K support band is critical. On-chain data : 95% of holders in profit, no mass capitulation; implied volatility is near record lows — primed for a “big move” if a macro trigger appears. Expected impact : Macro and risk-on/off positioning keep technicals cautious — major support loss could spark a drop, but institutional reaction to Fed/policy signals could flip the bias quickly. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The overall bias remains structurally bullish, but short-term uncertainty prevails below 124K ahead of a critical macro/events window. The market sits in a long-term uptrend but is showing short-term technical fragility around support. The primary actionable setup is a tactical rebound near 116,926 if seller exhaustion is confirmed (15min divergence), while valid swing entries require a solid reclaim of 119,119–120,000. Macro catalysts (Fed/Jackson Hole, options expiry) are decisive for the next major move.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
USDCAD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.379. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.375. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EURGBP Will Go Up From Support! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for EURGBP. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 0.862. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 0.874 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2
AUDCHF Will Go Higher! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for AUDCHF. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 0.524. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 0.534 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Bitcoin Macro Tailwind Meets Short-Term Volatility Battle__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin’s momentum remains bullish on higher timeframes, but the price action is currently stalling below a critical resistance cluster, fueling volatility and intraday shakeouts. Momentum 📈: The prevailing swing structure remains bullish, driven by robust mid/long-term trends; however, there is clear momentum fatigue with shallow corrections appearing on lower timeframes. Key levels: • Major resistances : 122,450–123,300 (primary pivot battle zone across daily/4H/12H), 119,812 (intermediate historic resistance now contested) • Main supports : 119,812–118,050 (multi-TF pivotal demand zone), 114,967 (1D/4H pivot, also Weekly support) • These zones are critical: breaking above 123,300 could spark a fast move toward 127k, while holding above 119,800/118,000 keeps the bullish structure intact. Volumes: Normal to moderate on primary timeframes, but very high short-term spikes on 15min underline active volatility traps. Multi-timeframe signals: Medium/long-term TFs (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H, 2H, 1H—all Up) confirm the bullish bias; however, the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator shifts to SELL on the 30min/15min, reinforcing near-term caution. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: “Neutral sell” on the broader trend, flipping to SELL at short-term extremes—underscoring the need to defend positions as volatility rises into resistance. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The strategic backdrop favors bullish setups as long as price action holds major support, but discipline and swift reaction are needed while Bitcoin hovers under vital resistance. Global bias: “Neutral buy” as long as 119,812/118,000 holds; any solid break below 118,000 flips the swing outlook neutral or bearish. Opportunities: • Tactical buy on structured pullback into 119,812/118,050 – key swing entry zone. • Conditional breakout trade above 123,300 – sets up an extension toward 127k, especially if shorts get squeezed. • Defensive scalp only on volatility flushes and rapid reclaim above 120,156/119,812. Risk zones / invalidations: • Confirmed breakdown below 119,812 is the first warning sign—opens risk of a retest of 118,000 or deeper. • Sustained loss of 118,000 = neutrality/bearishness resumes, opportunity for strategic selling may appear. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Accelerating global liquidity (US M2 surge, China credit) underpins the risk asset backdrop. • Geopolitical easing (Ukraine truce, G7 signals) reduces systemic threats; tailwinds for risk markets. • Looming short squeeze ($6B in shorts at 125k) could fuel explosive breakout moves if resistance breaks. Action plan: • Entry : Staggered buying into 119,812/118,050 or confirmed breakout above 123,300. • Stop : Below 118,000 (key swing stop). • TP1 : 122,450, TP2 : 123,300, TP3 : 127,000 short squeeze extension. • R/R: Moderate to high; optimal if entered near support or confirmed clean break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-timeframe analysis shows strong trend alignment on higher frames, contrasted by rising volatility and trap risk on the intraday scale. 1D/12H/6H/4H: Bullish structure and trend intact, with broad support at 119,812/118,050; strong resistance cluster at 122,450/123,300 preventing further upside for now. Each dip to support has triggered buyer defense and recovery. 2H/1H: Sideways consolidation at the upper range, above key supports. Corrections remain shallow unless 119,800/118,000 break. 30min/15min: Clear divergences—momentum shifts bearish, volume spikes, trap risk is high. These signals warn against chasing breakouts prematurely and demand patience. The underlying theme: The pivotal zone between 118,000 (support) and 123,300 (resistance) is where momentum for the coming days will be defined—traders must monitor reaction closely rather than anticipate. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain trends offer fundamentally bullish support for Bitcoin, although short-term volatility and positioning require active risk management. Macro events: • Global liquidity is on the rise (US M2, China credit), supporting higher valuations for risk assets. • Market expectation for US Fed rate cuts, bullish macro calendar, and reduced credit spreads—all positive for risk-on sentiment. • Easing geopolitics (Ukraine diplomacy, G7 moves) lowers the threat of sudden shocks, adding stability. Bitcoin analysis: • Strong institutional inflows and treasury allocations, growing support from large funds. • Key short squeeze level at 125k—liquidation of $6B in shorts could drive a rapid extension if resistance is breached. • Bitcoin dominance dropping below 60% hints at capital rotation into alts but can also revert quickly if the market overheats. • Institutional custody solutions and secure insurance ramping up, supporting greater adoption. On-chain data: • Profitability among holders is very strong; minimal signs of forced selling or capitulation. • No major signs of excessive euphoria; volatility implied to be low—a classic contrarian prelude to a volatility spike. Expected impact: These drivers underpin the swing-long bias but demand precise execution and tactical caution around major resistance traps and volatility spikes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin remains in a mature uptrend but is stalling beneath heavy resistance, requiring patience and disciplined execution. The global trend is bullish as long as 119,800/118,000 zone holds—these are structurally critical. The most relevant setup is a conditional breakout play above 123,300, targeting 127k if momentum and shorts align, but caution is needed due to heightened short-term trap risks. Macro tailwinds (liquidity surge, geopolitics improving) give deeper support but don’t remove the need for vigilance as intraday volatility remains acute. Stay nimble: avoid chasing into resistance, wait for signals of real flow, and prepare for fast reversals near the key battle zones.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali