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Trading Timeframes: Measured Moves and ContextIn the previous post, we introduced the concept of measured moves, a structured framework for estimating future price behavior. This method is based on the observation that each swing move tends to be similar in size to the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach offers a practical way to approximate the potential extension of a swing move. A common question that arises is: which timeframe should you use for measured moves, and how do you choose the correct swing move? These questions open up a completely different and important topic. Imagine analyzing a chart across three timeframes: daily, weekly, and monthly. You’ve projected a viable measured move on each chart. Now, ask yourself: which projection is the correct one? Where is the move most likely to play out? Daily Weekly Monthly The reality is that there is no singular “correct” answer. The appropriate measurement depends entirely on your purpose as a trader, the timeframe you operate in, and trading style. The Fractal Nature of Price Action Price action is fractal by nature. Regardless of whether you’re observing a 30-minute chart, a daily chart, or a weekly chart, the price displayed is the same in real time. However, the purpose of charts is to provide context. Each timeframe offers a unique perspective on how price has developed. For example, a 5-minute chart may reveal details about intraday movements while a daily chart condenses those details into broader a broader structure and context. These perspectives may align or contradict one another, they can confirm or challenge your biases. The key takeaway is that charts and timeframes are tools to contextualize price, not definitive answers. Defining Your Trading Timeframe To navigate the apparent contradictions between timeframes, start by defining your trading timeframe. This is where you analyze price structure, execute trades and define holding periods. This will answer the opening question: measured moves and other tools should in preference align with your trading timeframe. In case one wants to consider context, for various reasons, then multiple timeframes can be utilized. These act as a complement, not replacement. Here’s how different timeframes can be used for context. Higher timeframe: Moving one timeframe up will compress the price data, providing a broader context, but at the expense of detail. Lower Timeframe: Moving one timeframe down will reveal intricate details, but can introduce excessive noise. The balance between these components should match your trading style. Without a clear and defined approach, there is a risk of confusion and contradictory biases. The Concept of "Moving in Twos" Another, more anecdotal observation in price movement is the idea of “moving in twos.” This concept suggests that price often moves in sequences of two swings: an impulse move, followed with a pullback, which then repeats. There tends to be some price disruption after this has played out, but does not always imply that trend movement must stop after two moves. However, measured moves tend to align more reliably with these sequences. While not a scientifically validated principle, this concept has been discussed by traders such as Al Brooks, Mack and more. It provides a practical heuristic for applying measured moves more consistently. Practical Application To apply these ideas, consider the following: Define your trading timeframe. Use it as the primary basis for your measured move projections. If needed, incorporate one higher or lower timeframe to balance context and detail. However, these additional perspectives should not overrule your primary focus. Think in terms of “moving in twos.” Use this concept to locate sequences. This post was about the relationship between timeframes and the fractal nature of price action. The focus is on our role as traders and how we decide to operate, rather than absolute answers. This might be clear to most, but if not, take some time to think about and define your trading style.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
Measured Moves: A Guide to Finding TargetsMeasured Moves: A Guide to Finding Targets Visualizing the boundaries of price movement helps anticipate potential swing points. The concept of measured moves offers a structured framework to estimate future price behavior, based on the observation that each swing move often mirrors the size of the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach provides a practical method to approximate the extension of a swing move. Background Determining profit targets across various methods and timeframes can be challenging. To address this, I reviewed the tactics of experienced traders and market research, noting key similarities and differences. Some traders relied more on discretion, while others used technical targets or predetermined risk-to-reward ratios. Levels of support and resistance (S/R) and the Fibonacci tool frequently appeared, though their application varied by trader. Based on current evidence, levels appear most relevant when tied to the highest and lowest swing points within the current price structure, for example in a range-bound market. In contrast, sporadic or subtle levels from historical movements seem no more significant than random points. The Fibonacci tool can provide value since measurements are based on actual price range; however, the related values have limited evidence to support them. To explore these ideas, I conducted measurements on over a thousand continuation setups to identify inherent or consistent patterns in swing moves. It’s important to emphasize that tools and indicators should never be used blindly. Trading requires self-leadership and critical thinking. The application of ideas without understanding their context or validity undermines the decision-making process and leads to inconsistent results. This concept formed the foundation for my analysis, ensuring that methods were tested rather than taken at face value. Definitions Trending price movement advances in steps, either upward or downward. This includes a stronger move followed by a weaker corrective move, also known as a retracement. When the corrective move is done and prices seem to resume the prevailing trend, we can use the prior move to estimate targets; this is known as a projection. For example, if a stock moves up by 10%, pauses, and subsequently makes another move, we can utilize that value to estimate the potential outcome. Well thats the idea.. Data Through manual measurements across various timeframes, price structures, and stock categories, I have gathered data on retracements and projections. However, this information should not be considered precise due to market randomness and inherent volatility. In fact, deviations—such as a notable failure to reach a target or overextensions—can indicate a potential structural change. As this study was conducted with a manual approach, there is a high risk of selection bias, which raises concerns about the methodology's reliability. However, it allows for a more discretionary perspective, enabling observations and discretion that might be overlooked in a purely automated analysis. To simplify the findings, the presented values below represent a combination of all the data. Retracement Tool In the context of price movements within a trend, specifically continuation setups, retracements typically fall between 20% and 50% of the prior move. While retracements beyond 50% are less common, this does not necessarily invalidate the setup. From my observations, two distinct patterns emerge. First, a shallow retracement where the stock consolidates within a narrow range, typically pulling back no more than 10% to 20% before continuing its trend. Second, a deeper retracement, often around 50%, followed by a nested move higher before a continuation. For those referencing commonly mentioned values (though not validated), levels such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 44.7%, and 50% align with this range. Additionally, 18% frequently appears as a notable breakout point. However, I strongly advise against relying on precise numbers with conviction due to the natural volatility and randomness inherent in the market. Instead, a more reliable approach is to maintain a broad perspective—for example, recognizing that retracements in the 20% to 50% range are common before a continuation. This approach allows flexibility and helps account for the variability in price action. Projection Tool When there is a swing move either upward or downward, we can utilize the preceding one of the same type for estimation. This approach can be used exclusively since it is applicable for retracements, projections, and range-bound markets as long as there has been a similar price event in recent time. In terms of projection, the most common range is between 60% and 120% of the prior move, with 70% to 100% being more prevalent. It is uncommon for a stock to exceed 130% of the preceding move. Frequently mentioned values in this context include 61.8% and 78.6% as one area, although these values are frequently surpassed. The next two commonly mentioned values are 88.6% and 100%, which are the most frequent and can be used effectively on their own. These values represent a complete measured move, as they closely mimic the magnitude of the prior move with some buffer. The last value, 127%, is also notable, but exceeding this level is less common. Application The simplest application of this information is to input the range of 80% to 100% into the projection tool. Then, measure a similar prior move to estimate the subsequent one. This is known as the measured move. There are no strict rules to follow—it’s more of an art. The key is to measure the most similar move in recent times. If the levels appear unclear or overly complicated, they likely are. The process should remain simple and combined with a discretionary perspective. Interestingly, using parallel channels follows the same principle, as they measure the range per swing and project average volatility. This can provide an alternative yet similar way to estimate price movement based on historical swings. The advantage of this method is its universal and adaptable nature for setting estimates. However, it requires a prior swing move and is most effective in continuation setups. Challenges arise when applying it to the start of a new move, exhaustion points, or structural changes, as these can distort short-term price action. For instance, referencing a prior uptrend to project a downtrend is unlikely to be effective due to the opposing asymmetry in swing moves. In some cases, measured moves from earlier periods can be referenced if the current range is similar. Additionally, higher timeframes take precedence over lower ones when determining projections. This is nothing more than a tool and should be used with a discretionary perspective, as with all indicators and drawing tools. The true edge lies elsewhere. Example Use 1. Structure: Identify an established trend or range and measure a clear swing move. 2. Measured Move: Apply the measurement to the subsequent move by duplicating the line to the next point or using a trend-based Fibonacci extension tool set to 100% of the prior swing. The first two points define the swing move. The third point is placed at the deepest part of the subsequent pullback or at the start of the new move. 3. Interpretation: While this is a simple tool, its effective use and contextual application require experience and practice. Remember, this process relies on approximation and discretionary judgment.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
12
Price-Action-Channel-Formation: Key Projection-Types!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this tutorial about Price-Action-Channel-Formation. In markets, there are often price-actions forming that move into channel-formations which can shape into different forms. In this tutorial, I am looking at important channel structure types and how the projections can be assigned to properly object a taget-zone in the various types. As it is most often the case such formations can show up with a great potential signal to enter when they rightly complete and the final confirmation shows up, therefore it is important to keep patient on these confirmations and do not hesitate to enter into the market when no solid setup and opportunity is given. Range-Breakout-Projection: - Such ranges form quite often in the market and they can develop on smaller timeframes such as the 1-hour timeframe or higher timeframes such as the daily timeframe always with the proper time perspective given with the certain range. The pattern starts with a downtrend or in the reverse with an uptrend marking a new low or high which is the support/resistance in the range then the price bounces back to form the counterpart high or low which then creates the counterpart support/resistance in the structure. After a period of consolidation, the price finally breaks out of the range above the support/resistance level and closes there. When the final breakout emerges there are two possible target-projections, firstly the range height from the support to the resistance that is projected from the breakout point and secondly the width from the initial range entry to the breakout which is projected from the low to the upside, both projection can have different targets that can be assigned as target one and target two. Tripple-Channel-Target-Projection: - This is a very interesting channel-formation that is forming in the markets. Firstly the uptrend channel develops as seen in my chart(this can also happen in the bearish direction), within this channel a new high marks in the structure before the price-action actually reverses and breaks out below the lower boundary of this main ascending channel. The first breakout below the lower boundary of the channel activates a target with the projection to the downside and after that it is not seldom seen that the price-action moves back into the lower boundary and tests again as seen in my chart, in this case two further channels can be drawn, the second channel in the structure which is projected from the high to the structure lows and highs to the downside and the third channel projected from the new downtrend low to the new downtrend high, when the price-action now moves into the lower boundary of the main channel again this is a tripple-resistance-pullback as seen in my chart and the price-action moves on to the targets by the breakout and when the price-action then moves below the second channel the next target is activated. Classical-Descending-Channel-Projection: - This is the most classical channel in the market, it can form as a descending channel marking a potential bullish reversal as well as an ascending channel marking a potential bearish reversal. In both types, the channel is formed by the trend lows and highs which are ranging in the channel and as the downtrend (or in the reverse the uptrend) moves on the market gets oversold and the possibility for a reversal gets higher as the market has not the ability to continue this way for every. Such a formation also often inhabits a elliot ABCDE-wave-count which can offer additional confirmation for a breakout. This final breakout emerges when the asset gets that much oversold that demand enters and a breakout above the upper boundary settles as it is shown in my chart. When this breakout shows up the channel heights from the up to the downside is projected to the final breakout to the upside and the price-action is ready to appoint these zones. Range-Triangle-Channel-Projection: - This is a pattern that combines two formations, firstly an ascending channel and secondly an ascending triangle which is forming within the channel. Firstly the ascending-channel establishes with higher highs and higher lows and within this channel, the price-action makes something interesting as it does not move on further in the structure and stops making new highs it pulls back and forms a horizontal line of highs in the structure which then develops into this ascending-triangle seen in my chart in orange. Such an ascending triangle has the ability to form a dedicated breakout to the upside when the price-action moved on to range in the triangle and possibly also completes the wave-count within. When the price-action finally breaks out above the upper boundary of the triangle this will activate the further developments and targets at the upside especially amazing is the double projection here which projects the triangle height to the upside and is also at the same time the target at the upper boundary of the ascending-channel which can approve the target not only in price but also in time. Bull-Flag-Channel-Breakout-Projection: - This type of formation projection can show up with a very good solid signal however there are some very important determinations that need to confirm rightly before assessing the formation in the right manner. When the bull flag does not complete properly and the price-action increases bearishly or also bullishly when it is a bear-flag such a flag-formation can also invalidate with the breakout into the reverse direction which can often lead to heavy volatilities into the other direction as traders get trapped. Nevertheless when the formation completes rightly which will happen with the final breakout above the upper or lower boundary the target projection is made from the previous low in the wave to the upside to the high which is then projected from the lowest price-action point in the flag to the upside, always possible with the counterpart formation into the other direction. Double-Channel-Triangle-Breakout-Projection: - Now comes a very amazing formation as there are some interesting points given in this formation that can lead to a very strong breakout signal and the activation of the targets ahead. This formation basically consists of an initial channel to the downside in which the price-action ranges and after that can fall below the lower boundary and continue bearishly to reach the target, this initial price-action in the descending channel does not necessarily need to show up. After that when the price-action reached the targets the price backs up and continues to the upside to finally move into the previous descending-channel again in which it continues to consolidate and now also forms a bunch of lower lows that mark an ascending-trend-line in this channel, both the first descending-channel and now the second ascending-channel form a symmetrical triangle formation which is more likely to break out into the direction it came from which in this case is the bullish direction, this can also be measured into the reverse direction. The breakout then strongly activates an upside target which is the price-projection of the triangle to the upside and also the upper-boundary of the channel-formation that can also show the target in time. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about these important price-action-channel-formation types that can be spotted in today's market, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by VincePrince
14
How To Make Your Trading Plan In 7 Steps !How To Make Your Trading Plan In 7 Steps ! ➡️ Choose The Correct Time Frame All traders know what time frames are, but few know that each time frame has a specific way of working. Time frames from 15 minutes to 60 minutes fall under the name of day trading, meaning that all deals will be closed on the same day, whether with profit or loss, and traders call it the name "Scalping" On the other hand, there is a time frame from 4 hours to the daily frame, which are considered long deals and traders call them “swing” Time frames higher than the daily are considered investment centers and are not suitable for small capitals —————————————————— ➡️ Risk Management Most traders make a fatal mistake, which is not choosing a risk ratio for each trade, and this exposes the entire account to a loss. The best traders in the world believe that the reasonable risk ratio is between 1% to 3% for each trade. —————————————————— ➡️ Conditions You Must Choose Between " Ranging " Or " Trending " —————————————————— ➡️ Markets In Stock Markets We Have 4 Market ,, - First One Is Option Option or binary options is a currency, commodities and stock market that simulates the same conditions as the real markets, but you can set a time for the transaction and bet on the direction within a minute or two and you can win up to 90% of the bet amount, but in the event of a loss, you lose the entire bet amount and some believe that The option market has a lot of suspicions and scams - Second Type Is Equity - Third Type Is Futures - Forth Type Is Forex - Fifth Market Is Crypto Currency —————————————————— ➡️ Type Of Your Entries - Pull Back - Break Out - Cross Over —————————————————— ➡️ How To Put Your Stop And Targets ? —————————————————— Print It And Don't Forget Any One From The 7 Steps To Be Successful Trader ❤️❤️
Education
by Fx_Vanguard
My model Of Risk ManagementHello Traders! First of all, I must tell you that trading is 90% psychology 9% is Method and 1% is your deals/trades that you put. Discipline is the most important part of psychology and there are some factors that keep your discipline alive and one of them is Risk Management. The trading method has more importance than RIsk Management and if you are trading from methods that are available on the internet then I will say RIP because the knowledge available on the internet is complete trash because it needs lots of modification before applying on a live account. Learn yourself and work hard, Create your own method with a personal trading style and if you need any help then I am here to help you. Why do we need Risk Management? Risk management helps you to deal with uncertainty. If we look at the fact that 90% of the traders lose money then there is no difference between you and 90% of the traders if you completely ignore risk management. If you have not planned your Risk management yet then here is my model of Risk management. In my model, I only take 2% of the risk per trade and we will only trade if the trade will provide 1:3 or more Risk: Reward. Good risk-reward is the only key that will keep growing your account. My average Risk:Reward ratio is 1:4 and my win rate is close to 60%. Here is an amazing calculation. Suppose your trading balance is 1000$ so you will trade with 10% of the account which is 100$ and trade with 10x leverage and your stop loss must not be more than 2% means if you lose you will lose only 20$ which is 2% of the trading balance and according to my method our target will give you 1:4 means you will gain 80$ at the target. If my accuracy is 60% then if we trade 10 trades in a week means We lost 4 trades and with every trade we lost -20$. So -20$X4 = -80$ We won 6 trades and with every trade, we made 80$ profit. So 80$X6 = 480$ In the end, we will make 480$-80$ = 400$ easily. That's the power of Risk management also it's a power of a Good trading Method. Here is another Example If a method provides 1:3 R:R with 50% accuracy then here is another interesting calculation If we trade 30 trades in a month means we will lose 15 and will win 15. Same as above we will trade with 10% of the account which is 100$ and trade with 10x leverage and stop loss is not more than 2% and the target is 6%. (This is an average calculation of your all trades.) We will lose -20$ per trade and with 15 losses we will lose 20$X15 = 300$ We will gain 60$ per trade and with 15 wins we will gain 60$x15 = 900$ So in the End we will gain 900$-300$ = 600$ Even with a bad win rate, you will definitely keep growing your account. It doesn't matter if you lose 3-4 consecutive trades. You will definitely make money and will end up in profit. Also, remember I told you Method is more important than risk management and if you don't have a good method then work on it or follow my trades until you create yours. Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
Education
by Aadil1000x
4
Master's way to use Fibonacci ToolHello traders and dear followers! I have not posted any idea since the start of this month but today I am back with a powerful strategy that will help your trading easy and the strategy is also very easy to apply. It works exactly as you have ever imagined/wished that God should give you. 1. A strategy that can predict the Target perfectly. 2. At the same time strategy should predict the next drop. 3. Plus strategy should also guide you through every up and down before reaching your target. LOL We will only use the Fibonacci retracement tool and you can select Fibonacci tool from the Tool column on your left and it's inside the third option. To make it your favorite toll hit the star button. In this strategy, you just have to find a chain of bullish candles. A chain should be of at least 3 or more continuous bullish candles and after that look for the first bearish candle and that's the first step. Now look at the chart it's W1 btcusdt candlestick chart. If we see from 14-dec-2020 there is a set of 4 continuous bullish candles. Start the Fibonacci toll from the bottom of the bullish candle and put '0.618' Fibonacci level at the point where the first bearish candle is closed. Now Fibonacci '0' level is your target. We can see BTC hit the Target and then drop. It's simple as that. Let's move to the second example The second example is the ethusdt D1 chart. In this chart, there are 2 examples. The first one has 4 continuous bullish candles and the second one has a set of 5 continuous bullish candles. I started the Fibonacci Retracement tool from the start of bullish candles then set my Fibonacci '0.618' level at the point where the first bearish candle is closed and '0' is the Target. We can see ETH has already achieved both targets. In the first case of ETH it dropped after completing the target and the current one is still live means it is ready to drop soon. You can use this tool in any timeframe. At the beginning I gave 3 points and above you saw it complete target which was my first point and all dropped well after completing the target which was my second point and for the third point set these Fibonacci pairs the same way in any pair in 4hr or above timeframe than after that change the timeframe to 15/30/1hr timeframe and you will be amze to see how perfectly Fibonacci levels are respected. If you want more just hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
Education
by Aadil1000x
14
Winrate improvement: Avoiding trades with resistance until TGTHey. I recently wrote "Where to target and what to do once there?". I am now looking at targets again, but not the "target" target. The "targets" that are in the way. I call them resistances, regardless of them being above or below, since they resist me making money, they resist my position, the price going further. We want to make money, so we improve on every aspect, including winrate. And how do you improve winrate? By throwing away the bad setups, those with high uncertainty, and those with plenty of resistance in the way. When there is 1 ton of res clustered if the price breaks it usually is very powerful and goes far but this is an exception I won't cover in this article. Support is possibly more important as something that gets in your way when you are trying to hold a winner rather than a place to buy something. The main reason I see why support matters when you enter a position is because the price already tested that one, so that's 1 less obstacle, as well as you are as far away as humanly possible from the next one. Going to go over a dozen cherry picked examples Example 1 - Few resistances Example 2 - Much resistance Example 3 - The generational trade Example 4 - A long story Let's zoom in I can't see anything Let's clean a little And the conclusion How old were these resistances exactly? Example 5 - The round number Investing is not "simple" Educators with their laptops on their beach say: - Don't overcomplicate - Focus high winrate - Do indicators and only that - You can trade anything just the same, compost or rates, PA or TA is what matters - 2 schools: Full naked chart or full with indicators and 26 screens - You can spend 30 minutes a day on a laptop on the beach - Have very few rules and stick to that - Elliott Waves are magical and always work From this we can derive (and I can confirm true from my experience): - Overcomplicate! You won't compete with a 3 year old fischer price business plan. - Focus on low winrate, do NOT try to win very often (confirmed by George Soros, PTJ, WB, etc) - Avoid indicators, do everything else. Note: Moving averages that everyone looks at matter - You CANNOT trade anything just the same. Stupid claim. Makes my ears & eyes cry - Don't have a chart loaded with crap and don't take a trade from a "naked chart" (check res etc 1rst) - You can spend 12 hours a day with no holiday, from your office. Absolutely ridiculous "beach laptop" - Have many rules and change them when necessary: If you break them for no reason, because "muh feelings", then you do not need to "stick to your rules", you need to quit. Because you suck - Elliott Waves are stupid and never work. Perfect example of a guy creating a system that does not work and then changing it over and over and over, it's like with scientists in denial: "If the theory (EW overall) does not fit the data (EW rules) then change the data", Interlude - About round numbers Tech company Ilika (IKA) in a presentation where they talk about their solid-state battery tech plans (inclusing looking at prod costs etc) back in Dec 2019, they had a list of risks (Actually the investing bank Berenberg Bank wrote this for them I think, "normal people" didn't do this themselves, bank analysts did): Cost Risk #1 - Cobalt price increase is a major risk The presentation is online it is easy to find. Just type "Ilika Solid-state battery technology" and probably that's enough to find it. I really like it because you see how businesses conduct their business. So what happened to them? The hedgers buy low and sell high. The (profitable) speculators buy high and sell low, but they are not stupid, they avoid selling right on a multi-decade turning point (support). Example 6 - A stock Example 7 - Reaches Target but without you Example 8 - Falls like a rock Zooming in to check something Example 9 - Because hindsight works so well Example 10 - Ugliness attracts ugliness Example final - Something clean and pretty When you are actually "overcomplicating" your trading it's when you check every support for the last 10 years and draw them all. In this example after several years this "no resistance" area continues to show no resistance and the old res do provide resistance so...
Education
by MrRenev
1
Where to target and what to do once there?I've been bad. I've been greedy with having "strong hands" when I had some 5 to 7R, really should have gotten out when it started retracing. How do I let it go from over 5R to -1? From March-April to September 2020 I got baited. There was oil, there were all the USD trends in summer, and they all went rather far. After this I wanted to keep running my winners, I was not sure exactly what I should do, I was busy with other things to look into it (finalize a strategy and add 2 new ones to my pool of 2 + 2 I don't use so really double my setups) I just went for hold but on top of that I forgot about my positions and let them run (reverse) forever without paying much attention. I spent 2 years on just 1 strategy (+2 I do not use) from mid-late 2018 to mid-late 2020. Took me I'd say around 10,000 hours of backtesting, trial and error, and so on, to make it right. Added a new one in 6 months (all day every day), and then in early 2021 damn it's actually recent I casually added 2 in a few days no sweat. My first strategy has a fixed target, or had, actually I am not entirely sure what to do here. But more generally I spent 4 years not really know what to do once the price got to the target area, should I trail with a tight stop or wide or just get out? But now I know. It is a long road. The basics however, they are instant. No work required, it only depends on the individual they either get it or they don't. It's like you start with an edge from day 1, at +1% and then you spend a whole lot of time to bring that to +20%. People at -100% the huge losers don't "just do the opposite" and end up at +100%. Don't think brokers checked? The big losers take 20 trades a day. They have 0 edge positive or negative. And winners mostly follow the trend, risk a little to make a lot, and hold. It's just that for optimal results they learn to not always hold. No, not "after having learned to hold", there is no unlearning. Those that don't hold from day 1, just bad, no hope. At least according to academics, regulators and brokers. People that don't hold winners from the start never make it. Simple stats. Getting started with targets is really easy. Entry does not matter, target is easy, stop too. Everything doesn't matter or is easy with investing. First, the observations (non exhaustive): There are 2 approach: 1- The robot. Throw a ball, the dog sees it, gets excited, chases the ball. The market throws some bounces, the "day" or "swing" trader sees them, gets excited, and chases. No added value, no intelligence. The price bounces, but in a very wide area and the bounce amplitude is random. So they think they found a holy grail, because damn they're onto something clearly no one noticed the price bounced on supports, and they insist on awful "strategies", try to make it work with 3 to 1 risk to reward, very far away stop since it bounces randomly around support, and the target is terribad for obvious reasons. Wide stop tiny target. 2- Since the price will bounce from moderatly to a lot, use this area as a target, and when the price starts reversing we know it probably will retrace significantly so we jump off the ship. The second approach is also buying in a downtrend on these supports same as 1-, but after having sold. So the "edge" noobies think they see and absolutely want to "take advantage of" is exploited this way, it is literally the same buying at supp. But I don't know I guess everyone today is terrible at math and logic they can't even think of buying at support without it being a ridiculous countertrend 0.3 reward to risk gamble, doesn't even cross their mind. You actually get to buy at support. What is funny is they see the price breakout, then go in a straight line to the next level, and they somehow get all excited "I'm going to buy". No one wants to sell? Brain not working properly. Makes no sense. It is rly binary, you either get it or dont. It is a skill check (or is it attribute?) like in RPG games. Which is nice since you get to know very fast if you will make it or not, no need to waste 5 years. I saw (and regulators + brokers tell us) there are some degenerates that have been losing for 10 years and still continue. I saw someone on youtube that has a 20 years long "career" and all he has done is lose! For 20 years! He even describes his 20 years of failure in a video, his wife almost left him and he had many struggles. He sells robots now, trying to get some of what he lost back. He probably thinks he was "so unfortunate" it is ok to scam people. "The kid has heart", ye that's what you say about losers. Just means someone is dumb enough to insist when something is clearly not working for them. There is not much more to it, the basics that is. Then from here getting good targets takes grinding, experience? Only way I know how to is with stats, even the "not stats people" look at the past and gain experience by "working out" like PTJ did to predict 1987 crash. He isn't a quant but still looked at the past. Even Warren Buffett learned from experience and made stats, I guess his targets are something like "how expensive" with variables "market emotions" and "interest rates" but he knows when expensive is too expensive based on statistics (that he read or experienced over the decades) not based on magical fairy dust. What to do at target? Well this is a long story. So many possibilities and ifs and buts. I'm going to show 2 examples and call it a day. There is a lot of stuff on the chart, it's not very clean, looks like a "technical analyst" or day trader chart, sorry. Obviously investing takes more than drawing 2 lines, there are going to be several conditions to enter, several conditions to where to enter, several things that go into the stop, the target, etc. A board hitting its head on a keyboard can't make money. The same way I doubt a robot mindlessly buying when a stock hits a P/E of 5 would make money, investors look at cash flow, management, past revenue, book value, competition, and many other things. Simple things, but several of them (not 1 million numbers either). So once the trade is entered, and target is at 6R: And yes it does not stop at every support, sometimes it fires past target: And finally, of course: Can be good places to add (after the bounce took place)!
Education
by MrRenev
The logic of "sell half keep half" (Forex)Both holding & not holding don't make sense. Definitions: - Holding = try to hit "homeruns" every time - Not holding = snatching profits at target (not before, that's just being a huge noob) Assume winners 5 times bigger than losers on average: 5R. And the winrate is of 20%. So that's a PF of 1.25, all good. To keep it simple there is no trailing until target. Risking 0.5% per trade you'll never be down more than 10%. Once at target if you move the stop to 1R (-4), 12% of the time the price will go to 45R. So risk 4 to make 40, or 1 to make 10. With a winrate of 12%. PF = 1.36. But if you do hold and trail well... 12% of 20% is 2.4% of total. 80% will be losers (-1R), 17.6% will be +1R, and only 2.4% will be (huge) winners. In other words: Risking 0.5% per trade, by the time you get that big winner (+22.5%) you will be down 15, 25, maybe 50% on a bad luck streak, or more. 22.5% is just enough to get to breakeven after an 18% drawdown. Compared to just lose 4 times (down to 98%) then win once 2.5% (up to 100.45%) Even after a 10% drawdown (an unlucky >20 losses in a row) get a few 5R's and you quickly get back to zero. Holding just makes little sense, and there is no margin for error. But at the same time it's stupid to ignore these big wins. So here is the solution: Sell half, keep half. (Or any other fraction). Selling half at target allows to smooth the returns. If they are too volatile it just won't work out. And keeping half first with a wide stop then maybe not as much, allows to catch the "big ones". This makes most sense even if "on paper" some will say "oh well you should go for the big ones if the odds are in your favor" lol sorry but it's a bit more complicated than this. More generally with Forex I think that any risk to reward under 1 to 2 is bad as is anything above 1 to 10. Can aim for the moon, but not all the time. The "sell half keep half" concept is the best compromise. Adding to winner at some point is too dangerous, it doesn't work, it's just greed. Adding to winners is another subject entirely and anyway there is nothing as a "just do this". It all must be researched and well thought. With this sell half concept you're securing 2.5 + 1.25 = 3.75 / 5R so that's 75% of the profit. Then risking 25% of profit to catch some of these massive winners is I think the smart move here. Profit is secured, to push this a bit further you might have thought of this already: secure enough profit to breakeven (on 20% winrate secure 4/5 R) and "go double or nothing" on the extra (1R). So it's as if in a way these big winners are "free". Risking 1R with 50% retracement means you're leaving 2R in or 2/5 = 40%. Pretty good. And then the account I showed turns to this: Isn't this the best? Sure you'll "only" be in the huge wins with maybe 1/3 of the normal size but it's how it is. This is not gambling. Really, there is no other choice in my opinion. Sort of go nowhere for a while, then boom get a big winner, account jumps up, then go nowhere for a while, etc. The risk all "double or nothing" is actually stupid even if "on paper" you are risking less than you stand to make. And constantly closing at target is just bad and leaving some profit on the table. This does not apply to stocks (sometimes it does, probably). To be honest with stocks you're better off holding everything and getting these zigzags and all so you always have (balanced out) losses ready to be declared, and the huge winners never ever getting closed.
Education
by MrRenev
17
How To Trade Classical Head And Shoulder Formations.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Hello Traders Investors And Community. Welcome to this idea about the classical head and shoulder top formation which can be found on smaller timeframes as also higher timeframes. Although there are inverted head and shoulder formations and formations which brake to the upside than to the downside there are often failures in these formations whereas this is the classical formation confirming the reversal with volume and the activated price-target with a high probability. The formation can be divided into 5 phases with each phase confirming the ongoing formation and besides that minor phases and major phases which increasing the possibility for the head and shoulder formation to form the final breakout and confirmation. The formation can be traded in several ways where the most common ways are either with the final confirmation or before the final confirmation, both with different risk-preferences and fitting to each trader individual approach. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Confirmational Phases 1.) Buying Climax On High Volume 2.) Consolidation And Declining Volume Upside Attempt 3.) Upward Breakout With Lower Volume To Prior Climax High 4.) Another Consolidation Like (3.) With High Declining Volume 5.) Neckline Forming By Lowest Point With Following Breakout ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ First Phase: Up to this point a strong upward breakout is reaching up to new highs with increased volume, this looks just like a continuation of the priors established uptrend till bearish pressure sets in and the first signs of weakness showing a possible stopping of the uptrend with firstly declining volume. Second Phase: In this phase, the price forms a consolidation zone which can look like a bull-flag or triangle in decreasing volume before it shows an upside breakout on low volume, this is also forming the overall left shoulder and the established channel can be used for the ongoing measured right shoulder. Third Phase: This is an important phase and the key point of the formation where another upside attempt follows with significantly decreased volume forming the head before showing a markdown with still lower volume marking weakness of the bulls and a continuation of the head and shoulder formation. Fourth Phase: This is the last attempt to form new highs in the structure with lower volume compared to the phases before and normally low momentum showing the increased weakness of the bulls before the initial markdown shows up and set up for the final breakout confirmation in the fifth phase. Fifth Phase: The final confirmation the fifth phase showing the break of the prior established neckline and therefore the last confirmation point where a breakout happens with high bearish volume confirming the following moves to the downside and activating the overall head and shoulder downside target. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Approaches A.) Trade The Final Confirmation B.) Trade The Right Shoulder Forming Trade The Final Confirmation: In this approach, a trade on the short-side is placed when the dip down of the right shoulder penetrates the neckline which is confirming the overall formation, the stop-loss is placed above the right shoulder, a variation of this is to sell short when the right shoulder has finally broken the neckline to the downside but as this move can be volatile and fast it has to be done before the selling pressure sets in, the minimum target is the price projection from the high at the head of the formation to the neckline measured from the breakout to the downside. Trade The Right Shoulder Forming: This is the more speculative variation but can result in a good risk-reward and profit potential, in this scenario the trade is placed when the head with low volume has formed, price touched the neckline and the head of the right shoulder is forming on decreased volume, the stop-loss will be placed above the head of the formation or above the right shoulder. Placing the stop above the head of the formation in this variation will be the more logical and conservative approach, the targets in this variation are the same like in the first one with price projection of final confirmation. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ When spotted right and traded in the mentioned manner the trade of this formation can lead to a good profit. Also, the volume is playing a major role in this formation, although it can vary in some cases it will add to a high probable trading setup on the short-side. There are other variations of the head and shoulder formation but they arent that accurate in the approach like the classical head and shoulder top formation pointed out here. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more tutorials and a good day! trading effectively is about assessing possibilities not certainties Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VincePrince
32
BCH - Algorithmic Entry and Target hit beautifully!I realise it's easy to state after the fact, but BCH has produced a clear example of fibonacci entry and first target hit. I just missed my entry as I noticed this a little late, highlighting the difference between trading and TA. However, its impossible to miss the confluence with the entry, RSI moving above 30, divergence appearing on the EWO and the entry at the Golden Pocket. Stops just outside the 65 needed to be careful as a cheeky wick could have caught them. Its also satisfying to see my automatic algo, written using pine script, producing a fantastic trade set up in seconds. Sam
BEducation
by crypto_0sam0