GBPJPY 2H, TRADE IDEA FOR 30, SEPT 2025.Price successfully broke through the previous day's low and also swept the asian low range and structure, which forms my BIAS for the day bearish as price currently broke a structure, will it hold? as price moves further down to find a next balance.
As usual, my calls or analysis are based on what we see, the current Bias, and from a probability standpoint, meaning that this projection may be or may not be validated, so tread carefully, and as usual, this is not financial advice, trade responsibly
Techincalanalysis
Gold 09/30 |Safe-haven flows surge | Gold sails toward new highs🟡 XAU/USD – 30/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
US Politics : Meeting between Trump and bipartisan leaders ended without agreement → growing risk of a US government shutdown by Wednesday.
Conflict : Democrats demand concessions, Republicans fiercely oppose → wide gap remains, both sides blaming each other.
Market : Investors watch JOLTS data and speeches from 3 FED members, but political risks are the strongest catalyst for Gold.
Trend : Safe-haven flows keep pouring into Gold → increasing likelihood of testing new ATH.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : US political seas are stormy, Gold becomes the fortress of safety. The voyage toward ATH is widening.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H1)
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) > EMA 89 (red) → bullish trend clearly dominant.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Near FVG: 3,856
FVG Scalping: 3,842
Big Volume Dock: 3,827
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
ATH test: 3,916 – 3,917
Market Structure : Gold broke out strongly, now trading around 3,870. Main trend remains bullish, with 3,842 – 3,827 as key anchor zones.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (main priority)
Buy Zone 1 – Scalping FVG
Entry: 3,842 – 3,844
SL: 3,835
TP: 3,846 – 3,849 – 3,852 – 3,859 – 3,8xx
Buy Zone 2 – Big Volume
Entry: 3,827 – 3,824
SL: 3,815
TP: 3,870 – 3,899 – 3,916
⚡ Sell (short scalp – high risk)
Sell Zone – ATH test
Entry: 3,917 – 3,920
SL: 3,925
TP: 3,899 – 3,870 – 3,856
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are filled by safe-haven winds, pushing the ship close to ATH. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,842 – 3,827) is the ideal dock for sailors to position Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,916 – 3,920) may unleash violent waves, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. If the political storm from Washington breaks out, Gold’s voyage could surpass the peak and expand its horizon.”
📢 If you find the Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the earliest updates.
💬 What’s your view, crew? Will Gold conquer ATH around 3,917 this week?
Gold Market Analysis & Trading Plan
📌 Macro Context
Gold prices continue to receive support from declining US interest rates and a weakening USD.
The DXY index dropped 0.27% to 97.91, reducing the strength of the greenback.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.141%.
Real yield decreased to 1.761%, providing a boost for gold as the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower.
These factors strengthen the upward trend, although in the short term, gold may experience adjustments to attract more capital inflow.
📈 Technical Structure
The H4 chart shows gold maintaining a strong uptrend, however, the RSI has moved deeply into the overbought zone.
⚖️ Trading Scenarios
🔴 Scenario 1 – Sell Scalping
Entry: 3,879 – 3,882
SL: 3,890
TP: 3,865 → 3,850 → 3,836 → 3,810
👉 Suitable for short-term orders when price reacts at high resistance.
🟢 Scenario 2 – Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,805 – 3,808
SL: 3,799
TP: 3,822 → 3,840 → 3,873 → 3,898
👉 Buy in line with the main trend when the price adjusts to the nearby support zone.
🟢 Scenario 3 – Buy Zone 2 (Deeper Support)
Entry: 3,745 – 3,742
SL: 3,735
TP: 3,765 → 3,780 → 3,798 → 3,820 → 3,850
👉 This is a value buying zone if the market adjusts strongly, suitable for short swings.
📊 Summary
The major trend for gold remains bullish, supported by a weakening USD and declining US yields.
In the short term, be aware of potential technical adjustments from the 3,879 – 3,882 resistance.
Priority Strategy: Buy on dips, Sell only for quick scalping.
📌 Note: Strict capital management, adhere to stop-loss to preserve profits when unexpected US news volatility occurs.
XAUUSD – Will ATH Diminish Gold's Value?Hello Traders,
Gold once accounted for up to 21% of total global assets, but now this figure is only about 5%. Two perspectives are clear:
Gold is gradually losing its relative importance in the financial system.
The total value of global assets has surged (expanding the denominator), reducing gold's proportion, while its absolute value still plays a crucial role.
Technical Analysis
In today's Asian session, gold continues to set higher price marks, indicating that the upward momentum remains very strong.
The ascending channel on H1 has reached the upper boundary, showing slight hesitation, but the main trend is still upward.
The H1 and H4 frames maintain strong buying power, with market sentiment leaning heavily towards buyers, ready to push prices to higher levels.
According to Elliott Wave, the price is currently in wave 5 (the market psychology wave). The current task is to observe the reaction when this wave completes, to prepare for the ABC correction cycle.
Regarding Fibonacci, the next important resistance area is at 3880, where a bearish reaction may occur.
Trading Scenario
Sell (at Fibo resistance 3880):
Entry: 3880
SL: 3886
TP: 3866 – 3850 – 3835
Buy (trend-following priority):
Entry: 3813 – 3816
SL: 3809
TP: 3828 – 3843 – 3860 – 3878
👉 Note: Smaller frames H1 – M15 will provide additional confirmation signals to optimize entry points.
Conclusion
The upward trend of gold is still prioritized, wave 5 has not ended, and the scenario towards 4000 – 4050 is entirely plausible.
Short-term selling at strong resistance areas can be considered, but risk management must be tight.
Traders need to closely monitor support – resistance areas in smaller frames to maximize profits.
Follow me for the fastest updates when the price structure changes and to further discuss scenarios in the community.
GOLD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,824.27
Target Level: 3,583.49
Stop Loss: 3,983.30
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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AUD/CAD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
AUD/CAD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 0.913
Target Level: 0.906
Stop Loss: 0.918
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CHF/JPY BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
CHF/JPY is trending up which is evident from the green colour of the previous weekly candle. However, the price has locally plunged into the oversold territory. Which can be told from its proximity to the BB lower band. Which presents a classical trend following opportunity for a long trade from the support line below towards the supply level of 187.473.
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NZD/JPY BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG
Hello, Friends!
NZD/JPY pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is clearly falling on the 2H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 86.223 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBP/JPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
GBP/JPY pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 1H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 200.003 area.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Webull Corporation — demand confirmation and growth potentialTechnical analysis: On the 4H chart, Webull Corporation (ticker BULL) is showing signs of a breakout from the accumulation channel. After a decline, the price stabilized in the 12.50–15.50 range, where demand confirmation is visible. The current level of 15.39 serves as a starting point for growth. The nearest upside targets are 17.40 and 20.40, with extended potential toward 25.30 and 41.00 if resistance is broken. Key support is located at 13.30–12.50, and losing this area may bring back bearish momentum.
Webull Corporation is a US-based fintech company offering online trading and investment services. Its platform provides retail investors with access to stocks, ETFs, options, and cryptocurrencies. Competing with Robinhood, Webull stands out thanks to advanced charts, analytics, and low fees. The growing popularity of online brokers and an expanding user base support the company’s long-term outlook.
As long as the accumulation structure holds and demand remains strong, the bullish scenario stays in focus. For long-term investors, the stock may be considered a buy-and-hold opportunity, supported by fintech sector growth and rising competition among online brokers.
LiamTrading–Gold: Wave 5 isn't over yet, awaiting ABC correctionGold: Wave 5 isn't over yet, awaiting ABC correction
According to the Elliott Wave perspective, gold is currently in wave 5 and has not shown any clear reversal signals. Once wave 5 completes, a reasonable scenario would be entering the ABC correction phase.
Technical Analysis
The current price range remains in an uptrend, supported by the medium-term trendline.
Key resistance – support levels are identified based on Fibonacci, Volume Profile, and strong psychological thresholds.
RSI indicates that gold is approaching the overbought zone, thus short-term Sell orders (scalping) around the peak area could be advantageous.
Trading Plan Reference
Sell: 3840 – 3842, SL 3846. This is a strong resistance area, prioritize scalping if the downward reaction lacks momentum.
Buy: 3783 – 3785, SL 3779, TP 3800 – 3818 – 3838.
Large liquidity Buy: 3740, SL 3733, expecting a strong reaction from this area due to previous accumulation volume.
Important Notes
Early in the week, there are often numerous political – economic news causing noise, which could unexpectedly push gold higher.
Resistance areas 3840–3850 are strong psychological levels, observe the reaction before making decisions.
For short-term trades, stick closely to the plan, while flexibly adjusting when price paths change to maintain an advantage.
In summary, wave 5 is still developing, and trading opportunities mainly focus on key resistance – support areas. Traders need to manage risk well, patiently wait for confirmation, and remain flexible to adapt to fluctuations.
The DXY index fell to around 97.95 on Monday, extending its decline into the second session as the risk of a U.S. government shutdown weakens market sentiment and investors await a series of important economic data releases this week.
Wishing you successful trading, follow me and the trading community!
GBPCAD Gears up to Break Higher?Price has been steadily climbing while respecting the ascending trendline, showing that buyers are consistently stepping in. Sellers have been defending the horizontal resistance zone, but each push lower is weaker as buyers continue to build pressure from below.
If buyers finally break through this resistance with conviction, that becomes the signal, expecting continuation of the uptrend as sellers get squeezed and price drives into a new bullish leg higher.
Gold awaits PCE | EMA squeeze, big waves aheadXAU/USD – 09/26 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Trump : Announced a 100% tariff on branded drugs if not produced in the US → escalating trade tensions.
PCE tonight : The FED’s most important inflation gauge, key to shaping October rate cut expectations (current probability 91.09%).
The market is in “hold breath” mode, awaiting the PCE spark to decide the next direction.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is squeezed between two winds – short-term EMA pressure and major expectations from PCE.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) remains below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish pressure persists, but narrowing gap signals big volatility ahead.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,738 – 3,730
3,718
3,687
3,651
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,755 – 3,773
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
⚡ Sell (scalp at resistance)
Entry: 3,773 – 3,776
SL: 3,783
TP: 3,755 – 3,745 – 3,734
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy Zone 1 (Scalping)
Entry: 3,72x – 3,718
SL: 3,710
TP: 3,750 – 3,769 – 3,776
Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB)
Entry: 3,685 – 3,683
SL: 3,675
TP: 3,690 – 3,695 – 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,7xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are being squeezed between EMA 34 & 89. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,683) remains the safe dock for sailors to await the big wave. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,773 – 3,776) is raising fierce waves, only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight’s PCE will be the decisive wind – either pushing the ship beyond 3,78x or forcing it back to retest 3,72x.”
📢 If you find Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the latest updates.
💬 What do you think? Will Gold break through 3,78x or retest 3,72x first?
Market Weekly Wrap – Nifty & S&P 500 AnalysisNifty had a tough week, closing at 24654, down 673 points (-2.7%) from last week’s close. This was exactly in line with the downtrend warning I’ve been sharing over the past 3-4 weeks.
Key Highlights:
Weekly Range: High 25331 – Low 24629
Two-Week Correction: Down 3.15% from the recent high of 25448
Key Support Levels: 24474 / 24500 – watch closely!
If Nifty holds 24474/24500, we could see a short-term bounce of 1–2% toward 24950/25000.
But below 24300, brace for a deeper correction — Nifty could retest 23185 support levels.
Investor Tip:
The old saying still applies: "Be greedy when others are fearful."
This is a great time to start deploying capital — either by picking fundamentally strong stocks or through SIP/MF/ETF routes. If the market dips further, you’ll get opportunities to average your positions at better prices.
Sector to Watch Next Week: METALS — this sector looks strong and can outperform if market sentiment turns positive.
My Nifty Range for Next Week: 25050 – 24250
A breakout or breakdown beyond this range could trigger fast, directional moves.
US Markets – S&P 500 Update:
S&P 500 closed at 6643, down just 20 points, holding strong near its key Fibonacci support at 6568.
Upside Levels: Needs to sustain above 6689 for targets at 6780 / 6930 / 6959
Downside Risk: Below 6568, watch for 6502 / 6454 / 6376
Pro Tip: Keep a trailing stop-loss (SL) at 6524 to lock in profits
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Market correction was expected – use this opportunity wisely
✅ Watch 24474 support for potential bounce
✅ Metal sector could lead gains next week
✅ S&P 500 holding key support, but keep SLs in place
NG1! BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
NG1! SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3.177
Target Level: 2.934
Stop Loss: 3.339
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAUUSD – Need confirmation before entering trades
Hello everyone,
Last week, gold experienced a strong rally, but after hitting the 378x resistance, selling pressure became quite evident, causing the price to drop and close the week with a corrective candle. This indicates a market sentiment of hesitation, especially for those trading on margin, as fear can easily take over.
Technical Analysis
Currently, the price is returning to test the trendline around 3752. This is a crucial area and can be considered for a reactive Buy, with a safe stop-loss set below 3743. However, this is merely a crowd psychology reaction trade, so it's important to closely observe price action.
In the event that the price breaks the upward channel, we will wait for a pullback around 3760 to enter a Sell order. When this scenario occurs, the downtrend will become more clearly established, and the target expectation could be in the 366x–367x range.
Additionally, pay special attention to the support area of 3717–3723. This is a critical price zone, and if broken, gold is likely to enter a medium-term downtrend. In this context, a reactive Buy at 3715 could also be a reasonable scalping option for those who prefer short-term trading.
Trading Scenarios
Buy around 3752, SL 3743.
Sell when breaking the trendline and pulling back to 3760, expecting a decline to 366x–367x.
Buy scalping at 3715, SL 3709, short TP to 3723–3735.
📌 As the new week begins, be patient and observe the price reactions at key areas to obtain clear confirmation signals before entering trades.
Hopefully, this scenario will be helpful for everyone's trading process. I will continue to share more so that everyone can keep up with the market better.
LiamTrading – Mid-term Gold Outlook H4Let's prepare the scenario for the new week, everyone!
In my opinion, gold next week might start to show a mid-term correction phase. However, it is important to note that nothing is absolutely certain on a larger time frame. If you're trading short-term within the day, closely follow price action to ensure higher accuracy.
Gold closed the weekly candle at 3759.85 – a price point clearly reflecting hesitation. The end-of-week session showed resistance to price increases, mainly due to profit-taking pressure, so it's too early to confirm that a downtrend will begin.
The upward price channel is strong, so it's still necessary to think in line with the market's upward trend to ensure the mindset of holding profits remains firm.
The upward structure is still stable, but the RSI has indicated a weakening in buying sentiment. To confirm a mid-term correction, gold needs to break 3720. At that point, a reasonable strategy would be to wait to sell around 3737–3740 (retracing to the trendline), with the target being the support area coinciding with the highest volume profile cluster at 3645.
Conversely, the buying scenario will occur when:
- Price touches the 3735 boundary and shows a candle rejection reaction.
- Or gold breaks above the minor resistance at 3780, then you can buy immediately, with the expectation of heading towards the 3850 area.
Next week, be patient and wait for market confirmation to increase the probability of winning. I will continue to share detailed scenarios in each trading session for everyone to stay updated.
XAUUSD – New Week Scenario on D1 FrameXAUUSD – New Week Scenario on D1 Frame: Prioritize buying, the 3790 – 3720 zone determines the trend
Hello Trader,
Trading is a journey, and the most important destination is conquering oneself.
On the D1 frame, gold has experienced a series of consecutive strong increases, indicating that the buyers still maintain the advantage. The buying force shows no clear signs of weakening, even though gold has just slightly reacted downward around 3790. Currently, the price is consolidating around 3760 – the closing zone of this week's candle.
Fundamental View
Political pressure from President Trump on the Fed is increasing, as the market expects easing measures soon. However, Chairman Powell remains cautious, prioritizing price stability over inflation concerns.
This factor may continue to keep gold as a key safe-haven asset, especially amid policy uncertainty.
Technical View
The 3790 – 3720 price zone will play a decisive role in the medium-term trend next week.
If 3790 is broken, gold will have the opportunity to advance to the Fibonacci Extension zone of 3822. Further, strong resistance lies around 3840 – 3860.
If 3720 is breached, selling pressure will retest the strategic support zone at 3650. This is also the confluence area with the rising trendline on D1.
MACD Indicator: continues to support the buyers, the histogram remains positive, not giving a clear signal of decline.
Volume: no significant selling pressure has appeared, indicating that gold is entering an accumulation phase, awaiting a breakout.
Trading Scenario for Next Week
Buying Scenario (priority):
Buy around 3650 – 3660 (if there is a correction).
SL: below 3640.
TP: 3720 – 3790 – 3822.
Selling Scenario at Resistance:
Sell around 3822 – 3830 (Fibo + strong resistance).
SL: above 3840.
TP: 3790 – 3760 – 3720.
Conclusion
In the medium term, the upward trend still prevails. Next week, gold will revolve around the 3790 – 3720 mark, and reactions here will pave the way for the next trend. The priority strategy is to buy at the 3650 support zone, while observing reactions at 3822 to consider short-term sell orders.
Short-term scenarios will be updated during the day, helping you be more proactive with market fluctuations.
Follow me and the community to update the earliest scenarios.
BTC TREND CHANNEL - BITCOIN TRENDING UPTRENDBitcoin is in a new uptrend on the lower time frames. There is a high chance BTC will target between $112K and $113K in the short term. From there, we could see the daily trend of Bitcoin develop further.
Follow this channel for daily BTC updates
Thank you
GBP/NZD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 0.978 level area with our short trade on GBP/NZD which is based on the fact that the pair is overbought on the BB band scale and is also approaching a resistance line above thus going us a good entry option.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Bitcoin – Short-Term Trading Setup Into the WeekendBitcoin – Short-Term Trading Setup Into the Weekend
Technical Analysis
On the 45-minute chart, BTC has been moving sideways inside a rectangular range. This consolidation phase often precedes a strong directional move, and the eventual breakout will provide the confirmation for the next short-term trend.
Recent lows indicate that sellers are struggling to extend pressure, suggesting a higher chance of a relief move upward.
However, there is still the possibility of a fake downside break to sweep liquidity before price resumes higher.
110,000 is the key level to monitor for potential long entries – but only after a clear breakout confirmation.
For short opportunities, the 110,700 and 111,900 zones line up with both Fibonacci retracements and Volume Profile resistance, making them attractive areas for scalping or countertrend plays.
RSI (14) is sitting around 52, reflecting neutral momentum and reinforcing the need for confirmation before committing to a position.
Trade Scenarios
Long: wait for a confirmed breakout, entry near 110,000, SL below the nearest swing low.
Short: scale in around 110,700 and 111,900, SL ~400 points.
📌 I hope this outlook proves useful for your weekend trading. I share real-time signals within my community to help traders follow the market more closely.
BTCUSD – Short-term Downward Channel.....BTCUSD – Short-term Downward Channel, Accumulation Before a Potential Rally
Good day traders,
On the H4 timeframe, BTC is moving within a short-term descending channel. After testing a strong support level, selling pressure has started to ease. That said, the 107.4k zone has yet to be retested, and it is quite likely the price will revisit this level once again.
Technical Outlook
Over the past week, BTC has traded in a highly technical manner – with clear ranges, precise reversal points, and a sustained channel structure.
Key Support: around 107.4k, coinciding with the Long Entry Zone.
Short-term Resistance: 110k – 111k, an area where price has frequently reacted during recovery moves.
Fundamental Perspective
From a fundamental standpoint, there are currently few factors pointing to a deeper decline in BTC. Furthermore, historical patterns suggest that October is often a month where BTC and the wider crypto market tend to recover. This underpins the likelihood of a strong rebound once support has been fully tested.
Trading Scenarios
Short towards support
Entry: 110.3k
SL: 110.8k
TP: 109k – 107.6k
Long at strong support
Entry: 107.4k
SL: 106.8k
TP:Strong reaction: hold the trade, adjust SL to breakeven, and aim for higher levels in line with the broader uptrend.
Weak reaction: close around 109k for a short-term gain.
Conclusion
Short-term: preference is to look for short opportunities near 110.3k, targeting a move back towards support.
Medium-term: watch for long entries around 107.4k, with the expectation that BTC could resume an upward phase into October.
Risk Management
Adhering to stop-losses is essential, particularly for longs at support, as this is the pivotal level that may determine BTC’s next direction.
This represents my personal outlook on BTC heading into the weekend. Please take it as a reference and adapt it to your own strategy.
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DB Corp | Crucial Price Action Zone AheadDB Corp | Technical Outlook
On the daily timeframe, DB Corp is currently trading rangebound within a well-defined consolidation zone, with a strong support zone at 250–260.
The stock is respecting the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, with a critical support level placed at 254.
If this level holds, we may see a potential upside move towards 287.
However, if the support at 254 breaks, the next major support lies around 170–180.
Conclusion: Price action around the 254 level will be crucial for the next directional move.
Thank You !!