Dash Is Sitting At The Strong Support Within The Wedge PatternDash made a strong rally, as anticipated earlier, but the recent sharp decline suggests that the five-wave bullish impulse has likely been completed. As a result, price action now appears to be in a higher-degree three-wave corrective phase. This pullback fits well with a broader ABC corrective structure following the impulsive advance.
On the 4-hour chart, Dash seems to be trading within wave C of this higher-degree correction. Moreover, price action suggests that the market may be in the final stages of wave (5) within a wedge pattern. This setup often signals trend exhaustion, especially when combined with strong historical support. In this case, the 40 area stands out as a key support zone where buyers could step back in and stabilize the price.
Given this technical structure, traders should be alert for a potential rebound and the early stages of a new rally, particularly if price manages to recover and hold above the 53.50 level. However, it’s important to remain cautious, as the first meaningful bullish evidence would only be seen on a breakout above the 71 area. A decisive move above 105 would then serve as full bullish confirmation, signaling that a larger upside continuation is back in play.
Until those levels are reclaimed, price action should be monitored closely, as volatility may remain elevated near the current support zone.
Technical Analysis
Gold Is Compressing for a Break, Macro Forces Are Lining UpMARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (4H)
Market State:
– Gold is consolidating bullishly below the previous ATH at 4,380, maintaining higher lows. This price behavior aligns with a market that is absorbing supply, not distributing.
MACRO CONTEXT – WHY THE UPSIDE CASE IS STRONG
1. Fed Policy: Tightening Is No Longer the Driver
– The Fed has shifted from aggressive tightening to a data-dependent, hold-biased stance.
– Rate expectations are capped → real yields struggle to push higher, removing downside pressure on gold.
– Markets are already pricing future easing cycles, which structurally favors precious metals.
2. USD Weakness Is Structural, Not Temporary
– The U.S. Dollar has failed to extend upside despite elevated rates a classic late-cycle signal.
– Any USD bounce remains corrective while macro flows rotate toward hard assets and inflation hedges.
3. Global Risk & Geopolitics Remain Unresolved
– Ongoing geopolitical instability and fiscal uncertainty continue to support safe-haven demand.
– Central banks remain net buyers of gold, reinforcing long-term accumulation beneath price.
4. Liquidity Environment Favors Asset Inflation
– Global liquidity conditions are stabilizing after prolonged tightening.
– Gold historically performs best during liquidity inflection phases, especially when rates peak.
TECHNICALS + MACRO ALIGNMENT
Key Levels:
– Resistance / Decision Zone: 4,360 – 4,380
– Support Holding Structure: 4,300 – 4,320
– Structural Base: ~4,250
– Macro Expansion Target: 4,450 → 4,500
Price Action:
– Bullish consolidation under ATH = smart money absorption.
– Macro backdrop removes the conditions required for a sustained breakdown.
– Technical compression + macro tailwinds = high-probability expansion setup.
Next Move (High-Confidence Scenario):
– Acceptance above 4,380 triggers range expansion toward 4,450–4,500.
– As long as price holds above 4,300, pullbacks are continuation opportunities, not reversal signals.
Gold is not just technically strong — macro conditions are validating the breakout thesis.
This is not speculation; it is structure + policy + liquidity moving in the same direction.
USDCHF: High Chance for Recovery?! 🇺🇸🇨🇭
USDCHF may continue recovering after a test
of a strong intraday horizontal support.
It looks like we got a bearish trap below that
and we see a relatively strong bullish momentum now.
Goal will be 0.7985
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Gold XAUUSD Analysis Dec 16, 2025 | Fed Policy, Dollar WeaknessOANDA:XAUUSD GOLD ANALYSIS Gold Strength Persists as Policy Uncertainty and Global Tensions Rise (Dec 16, 2025)
Welcome back to Trade with DECRYPTERS 🔍📈
📊 Market Overview
Gold traded firmly bullish on December 16, 2025, holding within the $4,300–$4,350 zone and briefly testing levels near October’s record highs. Both spot and futures prices posted modest intraday gains while hovering near multi-month peaks.
The rally was supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2026, a cooling US labor market, and a weaker US dollar alongside softer Treasury yields. Persistent geopolitical tensions and steady central-bank buying added strong safe-haven demand. Overall, gold remains structurally bullish, extending its exceptional 2025 performance.
🔑 Key Fundamentals
🟨 Gold is consolidating around $4,300–$4,330, holding near multi-year highs after a 50–60% YTD rally.
🏦 The Federal Reserve cut rates again to 3.5–3.75%. Despite a relatively hawkish dot plot, markets continue to price further easing in 2026, supporting gold through lower real yields.
💵 The US Dollar Index remains weak at 98–99, boosting global gold demand and improving affordability for non-USD buyers.
📉 Treasury yields near 4.2% add mild pressure, but expectations of gradual Fed easing limit upside risks to yields.
🌍 Central-bank buying remains exceptionally strong at 634–750 tonnes YTD, led by Poland, China, Turkey, and others, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical hedging.
🔥 Inflation is cooling but remains above target, allowing gold to benefit from real-yield compression and elevated risk aversion.
🌍 Geopolitics Impacting Gold
🌐 Middle East Tensions
Ongoing Iran–Israel and broader regional conflicts continue to push gold higher through fear-driven flows. Headlines regularly trigger 1–3% intraday surges, making geopolitics a key driver behind October’s record highs near $4,381.
⚔️ Russia–Ukraine War
Continued escalations and stalled negotiations keep risk premiums elevated. Energy volatility and sanctions reinforce gold’s role as a non-fiat hedge, with no clear resolution maintaining long-term support.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Tensions
Tariff threats, technology export controls, and retaliatory measures increase uncertainty. Trump era restrictions played a major role in pushing gold above $4,300, and markets continue to price higher geopolitical volatility into gold.
🌎 Other Emerging Risks
Instability in regions such as South Korea and Syria, alongside renewed concerns over European debt, further strengthen safe-haven demand. Ongoing de-dollarization efforts encourage central banks to continue adding gold reserves.
⚖️ Risk-On Risk-Off Analysis
📉 Yields Overview
Gold trades around $4,280–$4,315, holding elevated levels despite consolidation.
The US 10-year yield sits near 4.16–4.20%, rising slightly after hawkish Fed remarks.
Real yields remain subdued due to cooling inflation, which continues to support gold. While higher yields create short-term headwinds, structural 2025 drivers have overridden traditional yield-gold correlations.
🔄 Key Relationships
📊 The US Dollar Index at 98.2–99.0 remains weak, strongly supporting gold’s year-to-date momentum.
📈 The S&P 500 near 6,800 reflects mild risk-on sentiment, yet gold continues to rise alongside equities due to defensive hedging demand.
📉 The VIX around 15–16 signals calm markets. Low volatility caps extreme safe-haven premiums but does not prevent gold from holding elevated levels.
🧠 Overall Sentiment
Markets remain mildly risk on with strong defensive undertones driven by geopolitics and central-bank accumulation. Gold is likely to hold elevated levels, with potential pullbacks toward $4,200 support if yields rise or the dollar firms. Structural tailwinds continue to favor upside toward $4,350–$4,400.
📰 Key Insights From Credible Sources
Market commentary increasingly links Trump’s tariffs, fiscal pressures, and policy uncertainty to a strongly bullish gold outlook. Analysts highlight how trade conflicts, de-dollarization, and rising deficits continue to support higher prices.
Eastern central banks are rapidly accumulating gold, reinforcing its role as neutral money amid global monetary shifts and geopolitical fragmentation.
Several reports speculate on potential gold revaluation under a future Trump administration in 2026, citing rising debt levels and structural weaknesses in the fiat system.
Gold has repeatedly surged following tariff announcements and trade-war escalations, while BRICS-related gold buying continues to boost long-term demand.
🏁 Conclusion
Gold remains firmly supported by a powerful mix of weak real yields, a soft dollar, and persistent geopolitical tensions, keeping prices elevated near multi-year highs. Central-bank accumulation and hedging demand reinforce structural bullish momentum despite occasional yield-driven pullbacks.
With expectations of further Fed easing in 2026 and unresolved global conflicts, upside risks outweigh downside corrections. Overall, gold’s outlook remains strongly bullish, with momentum targeting $4,350–$4,400, and potential extensions if volatility accelerates.
🙌 Support the Analysis
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Nifty Update - 16/Dec/2025Today’s price action played out exactly as expected.
Nifty attempted to move up but was rejected at the lower boundary of the rising channel, confirming that recent bounces are corrective in nature.
The 25,700–25,300 demand zone is still holding well.
Notably, the lower end near 25,300 also coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement, making it a strong confluence support area.
There is no breakdown yet, but upside remains capped as long as Nifty stays below the channel.
Advisory: Continue to stay cautious. Avoid aggressive buying until the index shows clear structural strength again.
HobbyToPassion_ManishJain
XAUUSD Clearly Bullish – This Is Not a TrapHello traders, let’s analyze XAUUSD today!
With the current setup, XAUUSD is presenting a clean and well-defined bullish picture , without the need for overly complex speculation.
From a fundamental perspective , the environment is clearly leaning toward the bullish side. A weaker USD combined with declining U.S. bond yields is creating a favorable backdrop for gold. In addition, expectations that the Fed may ease monetary policy remain in place, encouraging capital to continue flowing into gold as both a safe-haven asset and a medium-term speculative instrument. At this stage, the market lacks a strong catalyst capable of reversing XAUUSD’s upward trend.
Looking at the chart structure, the bullish trend is strongly confirmed. Price is moving within a well-defined ascending channel , consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. The Ichimoku system fully supports the bulls, with price holding above the cloud and key lines sloping upward, signaling that this move is structurally strong rather than temporary . The recent pullback should therefore be viewed as a healthy technical correction, not a trend reversal.
In terms of scenarios, the area around 4,280 is acting as a key support zone. As long as price continues to hold above this level, XAUUSD has a strong probability of resuming its upward move toward the 4,400 target, in line with the current channel structure. This scenario aligns both technically and fundamentally.
Wishing you all successful and disciplined trading!
NZDCAD: Bearish Continuation After Breakout 🇳🇿🇨🇦
There is a high chance that NZDCAD will drop lower
after a breakout of a key intraday/daily support yesterday.
Next support will be 0.793
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Ethereum Tests a Key Flip Zone....🔹 MARKET BRIEFING – ETH/USD (1H)
Market State:
– Ethereum has reacted strongly from the lower support zone and is now pressing into a well-defined resistance area.
– The impulsive bounce suggests short-term momentum recovery, but price is still interacting with prior supply, making this a decision point rather than a confirmed continuation.
Key Technical Levels:
– Support Zone: 3,030 – 3,060
– Resistance / Flip Zone: 3,120 – 3,145
– Take Profit 1: 3,175 – 3,185
– Take Profit 2: 3,250 – 3,265
– EMAs are flattening, reinforcing a transition from corrective to neutral structure.
🌍 Macro Context – What Supports the Upside Attempt
– Bitcoin Stability: BTC holding above recent lows reduces systemic downside pressure on ETH.
– Fed Expectations: With rates priced to remain steady, risk assets are allowed to recover technically, though without aggressive expansion.
– Liquidity Rotation: Post-selloff conditions favor mean-reversion rallies, especially from clean support zones.
Next Move:
– Acceptance above the 3,145 resistance zone would confirm a bullish flip and open the path toward 3,175 → 3,265.
– Failure to hold above resistance would likely result in a pullback toward the 3,060 support, keeping ETH range-bound.
Bottom Line:
– Ethereum is at a make-or-break level.
– Strength above resistance confirms continuation rejection reinforces a broader consolidation phase until a clearer macro catalyst emerges.
Gold Is Loading the Final Break — $4,500 Is No Longer a StretchMARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (4H)
Market State:
– Gold remains in a strong bullish structure on H4, trading well above key EMAs and holding higher highs. Momentum is intact; the recent pause is consolidation, not distribution.
Key Levels:
– Primary Support: 4,250 – 4,260 (EMA cluster / structure base)
– Immediate Resistance: 4,370 – 4,380
– Expansion Zone: 4,420 – 4,450
– Upside Objective: 4,500 (New ATH zone)
Price Action Read:
– Pullbacks are shallow and quickly absorbed, indicating active dip buying.
– Structure shows a stair-step advance with brief pauses before continuation — typical of a trend-strength phase.
Next Move:
– Holding above 4,260 keeps the bullish roadmap intact. Acceptance above 4,380 opens room for range expansion toward 4,450–4,500. Any dip into support is a continuation opportunity, not a reversal signal.
Will Bitcoin Break Through $94,000 or Drop Back to Support?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Market Analysis – 1H Chart
1. Current Price Structure
Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a range, respecting the support zone around $88,992 and the resistance zone around $94,234. Price action shows a period of consolidation after hitting the resistance zone, signaling indecision in the market.
The price remains above both the EMA 34 and EMA 89, confirming that the medium-term trend is still bullish, as the moving averages are providing upward support.
2. Liquidity Zones
Resistance Zone: $94,234 - $94,800. This region is a critical resistance, and price tends to struggle when it reaches this area, with rejections observed in recent price movements.
Support Zone: $88,992 - $89,200. The price is currently respecting this support, with buyers stepping in to push the price upward. A break below this zone may signal a deeper correction.
3. Today’s Market Scenario
Main Scenario – Bullish Continuation (60% Probability): If price holds above the support zone ($88,992) and breaks through the resistance zone, Bitcoin is likely to continue its uptrend toward the next targets:
Target 1: $92,878
Target 2: $94,800 (near the resistance zone)
Extended Target: $96,000
Bearish Scenario – Lower Probability (40%): If the price fails to break the resistance zone, we may see a retest of the support zone at $88,992. A break below $88,992 would open the way for further downside towards $87,600.
4. Market Psychology
Bullish Sentiment: The general trend remains optimistic, with institutional investors likely accumulating positions at the support zone.
Bearish Pressure: Retail traders may be getting caught in the volatility near the resistance zone, which often leads to false breakouts and liquidity grabs.
5. Intraday Strategy Guidance
Buy Opportunity: Look for price rejections near the support zone ($88,992 - $89,200). A clean bounce off this level would be a great entry for a continuation of the uptrend.
Sell Opportunity: Consider shorting if Bitcoin fails to break the resistance zone ($94,234) and begins to reverse from this level, especially if there is a strong bearish candle or rejection.
Upcoming Key Factors
Macroeconomic Factors (Fed Announcements): Any macroeconomic news, particularly announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates or economic policies, could impact the volatility of Bitcoin. A dovish Fed stance could provide further bullish momentum, while hawkish signals may trigger a correction.
Global Events: Be aware of global economic events (e.g., geopolitical tensions, economic reports) that might influence risk sentiment in the market.
Conclusion:
The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a strong bullish bias above the support zone. A clear breakout above the resistance zone could open up more upside potential. However, any rejection at the resistance may lead to a retracement. Keep an eye on macroeconomic news, particularly related to the Fed, as it could be a catalyst for either a breakout or breakdown.
Bitcoin Repeats a Familiar Pattern - NEXTZone Is Already Defined🔹 MARKET BRIEFING – BTC/USD (1H)
Market State:
– Bitcoin is once again trading inside a repeating range structure, similar to the previous consolidation phases marked (1 → 3).
– Price has just rebounded from the lower demand area and is now holding above short-term support, while still trading below the key moving averages, keeping the broader structure neutral-to-corrective.
Key Technical Levels:
– Demand / Base Zone: 87,800 – 88,600
– Mid-Range Reaction Level: 90,000 – 90,300
– Major Resistance / Supply Zone: 93,000 – 93,500
– The projected move toward zone (4) aligns with prior range highs and unfilled liquidity.
🌍 Macro Context – Why This Remains a Range, Not a Breakout
– Federal Reserve: Policy expectations remain stable with no immediate liquidity expansion signal. This limits impulsive upside in risk assets.
– Liquidity Conditions: The recent downside move cleared leveraged longs, enabling a technical rebound, but macro liquidity is not supportive of trend continuation yet.
– Risk Sentiment: Broader markets continue to show consolidation behavior, reinforcing mean-reversion rather than directional conviction.
Next Move:
– A controlled push toward 90,000–90,300 is likely as part of a corrective recovery.
– Extension toward the 93,000–93,500 resistance zone is possible, but this area is expected to act as a decision point, not an automatic breakout.
– Only acceptance above 93,500 would invalidate the range-based thesis and shift the bias toward trend continuation.
Bottom Line:
– Bitcoin is following a structured, repeating range pattern, not randomness.
– Until macro conditions shift, rallies should be viewed as range extensions into resistance, not confirmed trend reversals.
Ethereum Set for a Rally: Can It Break Key Resistance?Ethereum (ETH/USD) – 1-Day Chart
Current Market Structure:
Ethereum is in a clear ascending channel with higher lows and higher highs, indicating a potential bullish trend. The price is currently consolidating within this channel and preparing for a potential breakout to the upside.
Key Levels:
Support Zone: $2,633.61 - The price has consistently bounced off this zone, showing strength.
Resistance Zones: $4,716.90
Take Profit 1: $3,612.44
Take Profit 2: $4,188.23
Take Profit 3: $4,716.90
Most Probable Scenarios:
1. Bounce from Support: Ethereum is likely to continue its upward movement, testing the first take-profit target at $3,612.44.
2. Consolidation: Price may continue to consolidate within the channel before making a final move higher.
3. Breakout to the Upside: If Ethereum successfully breaks above the upper boundary of the channel, a move toward the next resistance levels (Take Profit 2 and Take Profit 3) is expected.
Actionable Advice:
Buy near the lower boundary of the channel, aiming for Take Profit 1 at $3,612.44.
Hold if price reaches the higher resistance levels ($4,188.23 and $4,716.90).
Risk Management:
Place stop-loss orders below the support zone around $2,633.61 to protect against unexpected price action.
Bitcoin's Critical Test:Will Upcoming News Drive It Beyond $106KHELLO TRADERS....
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – 1-Day Chart
Current Market Structure:
Bitcoin is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, with higher lows establishing a clear demand zone at $80,595 and a supply zone at $106,003. This structure suggests a potential continuation to the upside if price breaks the resistance zone.
Key Levels:
Demand Zone: $80,595
Supply Zone: $106,003
Target Zone: If the resistance is broken, the next possible target is above the supply zone, indicated by the blue trendline.
Most Probable Scenarios:
1. Breakout to the Upside: Bitcoin may break above the supply zone and move towards new highs, targeting the upper trendline as shown in the chart.
2. Consolidation: Price could continue to consolidate within the ascending triangle pattern before a final breakout.
3. Rejection at Supply Zone: If Bitcoin fails to break the resistance, it might experience a pullback toward the demand zone.
Actionable Advice:
Buy if Bitcoin breaks above the supply zone with strong volume, targeting the next resistance at higher levels.
Sell if price rejects the supply zone, waiting for a retest of the demand zone for potential re-entry.
Patience: As Bitcoin is consolidating in a defined range, waiting for confirmation at key levels is crucial to avoid false breakouts.
Gold Compresses in a Range - The Breakout Will Not Be Random🔹 MARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (1H)
Market State:
– Price is moving sideways after a strong impulsive rally, forming a clear range structure between a well-defined support zone and a resistance zone.
– The current price action shows controlled consolidation, not distribution, indicating the market is waiting for a catalyst rather than reversing.
Key Technical Structure:
– Support Zone: ~4255–4265
– Resistance Zone: ~4345–4360
– Price is respecting both boundaries, creating higher lows into resistance — a classic compression before expansion setup.
Market Bias:
– Neutral to bullish while price holds above the support zone.
– The sideways movement reflects absorption, not selling pressure.
🌍 Macro Context – Why Gold Is Ranging
– Federal Reserve: Markets are pricing in a wait-and-see stance from the Fed. Rate expectations are stable, limiting directional momentum in USD.
– US Yields: Bond yields have stalled after the recent move, removing immediate pressure on gold.
– Risk Sentiment: Equity markets remain mixed, keeping gold supported but not aggressive.
→ This macro balance explains the range-bound behavior seen on the chart.
Next Move:
– As long as price continues to hold above the support zone, the structure favors an upside breakout.
– A clean break and acceptance above the resistance zone would likely trigger a continuation leg toward higher liquidity targets.
– Failure to hold the support zone would invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus back to deeper demand levels.
Bottom Line:
– Gold is not weak it is waiting.
– The current sideways phase is a preparation zone, and the breakout direction will align with the next macro impulse rather than random price noise.
“ETH Is Repeating the Same Trap — Range First, Direction LaterMARKET BRIEFING – ETH/USD (4H)
Market State:
– Ethereum remains in a range-bound structure, repeatedly forming distribution-like consolidations after short impulsive moves.
– Each highlighted box shows the same behavior: push up → choppy consolidation → downside rotation. Current price action is aligning with that same rhythm.
Key Levels:
– Range Mid / Balance: ~3,120 – 3,150
– Upper Supply Reaction Zone: ~3,300 – 3,450
– Lower Demand / Rotation Target: ~3,000 – 3,050
– Breakout Invalidation: Clean acceptance above ~3,450
Price Action Read:
– The market is not trending it is cycling liquidity inside a broad range.
– Failed follow-through after bullish pushes signals seller absorption at higher prices.
– Current consolidation suggests another rotation phase, not immediate continuation.
Next Move:
– Sideways to slightly bearish rotation remains favored while below the upper supply zone.
– A sweep toward the lower range (~3,000–3,050) is a high-probability magnet.
– Only a strong break and acceptance above 3,450 would invalidate the range-play and shift bias bullish.
ETH is not breaking out it’s repeating structure.
Until price escapes the range with acceptance, rotation beats prediction.
Bitcoin Is Trapped — But Not WeakMarket State:
– Bitcoin is trading inside a defined sideways structure, bounded by a strong support zone near 87,500–88,000 and a heavy resistance band around 90,500–91,000.
– The sharp sell-off into support was immediately absorbed, followed by a rebound — confirming buyers are defending the range, not abandoning it.
Key Levels:
– Strong Support: 87,500 – 88,000
– Range Mid / Balance: ~89,000
– Strong Resistance: 90,500 – 91,000
– Breakout Trigger: Acceptance above 91,000
Price Action Read:
– Repeated rejections at resistance and higher lows from support signal range compression.
– This is not trend continuation yet — it is market indecision resolved through time, not price.
NEXT MOVE SCENARIOS
➡️ Primary Scenario – Range Continuation
– Price oscillates between support and resistance.
– Buy reactions near 87,500–88,000, fade moves into 90,500–91,000.
➡️ Breakout Scenario (Macro-Driven)
– A decisive break and acceptance above 91,000 requires:
• Dovish Fed repricing
• USD weakness
• Broader risk-on rotation
– Only then does upside expansion become sustainable.
❌ Invalidation:
– A clean breakdown below 87,500 would shift bias to deeper corrective price discovery.
Gold Is Pulling Back Before the Next ExpansionMARKET BRIEFING – XAUUSD (H1)
Gold remains in a clean bullish structure on H1. The recent pullback is corrective, not a reversal. The sharp bearish candle was a liquidity sweep, immediately absorbed by strong buying confirming buyers are still in control and structure stays HH–HL.
Key Levels:
– Main Support (Demand): 4260 – 4270
– Current Range: 4270 – 4350
– Upside Targets:
• TP1: 4350 – 4360
• TP2: 4380 – 4390
Price Action Read:
Sell-side liquidity has been absorbed inside the support zone. Long lower wicks show aggressive demand. Price is consolidating above support a re-accumulation phase within the uptrend, building energy for the next expansion.
Scenario:
➡️ Bullish Continuation (Primary):
Hold above 4260 → consolidate → push higher → break toward TP1, then TP2.
Pullbacks into support = continuation setups, not weakness.
❌ Invalidation:
A decisive H1 close below 4260 would delay the bullish expansion and open room for a deeper correction.
Bias: Buy pullbacks. Don’t chase highs.
Gold is not distributing it’s loading the next impulsive leg.
Gold Is Not Correcting — It’s Loading the Next ImpulseXAUUSD M30 – Intraday Market Analysis
1. Current Market Structure
Gold remains in a healthy bullish structure after completing a sharp technical correction.
The recent pullback was corrective in nature, and price has successfully reclaimed and held above key moving averages, confirming that the primary trend is still bullish.
From a wave perspective, price is forming a (1) – (2) corrective structure, with wave (2) holding firmly above the key support area. This behavior signals trend continuation, not reversal.
2. Key Support & Structure Zones
Primary Support Zone: 4286 – 4300
→ Strong demand reaction, buyers defended this zone aggressively
Structure Low (Wave 2): Still intact
→ Failure to break this level confirms seller weakness
Upside Projection: Wave (3) → (4) → (5) remains valid as long as price holds above support
This zone acts as a launchpad for the next impulsive leg.
3. Momentum & Flow
Momentum indicators remain elevated, showing active buying pressure
Selling volume decreases on pullbacks → correction lacks strength
Price consolidating above support suggests smart money re-accumulation
This is a classic pause-before-expansion behavior.
4. Today’s Market Scenario
🔼 Primary Scenario – Bullish Continuation
If price continues to hold above 4300 – 4305, the market is highly likely to:
Complete the corrective base
Initiate wave (3) expansion
Continue toward higher intraday targets as projected on the chart
Corrections at this stage are considered buying opportunities, not trend failures.
5. Intraday Trading Plan
Intraday Bias: 📈 Bullish (Increase)
📌 SET UP 1 – Timing Sell Zone (Counter-trend scalp)
SELL ZONE: 4379 – 4382
TP: 4376 – 4371
SL: 4386
📌 SET UP 2 – Timing Buy Zone (Trend-following)
BUY ZONE: 4286 – 4289
TP: 4292 – 4297
SL: 4282
⚠️ Always apply proper capital management to protect the account.
Conclusion
Gold is not showing signs of distribution.
The market is absorbing supply after a technical correction, maintaining bullish structure, and preparing for the next impulsive expansion.
As long as price holds above the key support zone, the roadmap remains clear:
Correct → Accumulate → Expand.
ETH Is Not Recovering — It’s ReloadingETHEREUM (ETH/USD) — 1H MARKET ANALYSIS
Trend Continuation Setup | Macro-Aligned
1. Market Structure Overview
ETH has completed a sharp bearish impulse and is now stabilizing above the 3,050–3,070 demand base. The recent rebound shows acceptance back into value, forming a short-term higher low on the 1H. Structure is transitioning from sell-off to accumulation-within-range, not a full reversal yet, but conditions favor continuation.
2. Key Levels & Liquidity
Primary Demand: 3,050–3,070 (defended multiple times; liquidity already swept).
Mid-Range Acceptance: ~3,135 (current balance point).
Targets (Liquidity Above):
Target 1: 3,190
Target 2: 3,225
Target 3: 3,260
These targets align with prior intraday highs and resting buy-side liquidity.
3. Macro Context (1H Bias)
Macro conditions remain supportive but cautious. With rate-cut expectations still alive and no immediate risk-off catalyst in the session, ETH tends to outperform during stabilization phases after aggressive sell-offs. Short-term flows favor mean reversion higher as risk appetite returns incrementally.
4. Intraday Scenarios
Primary Scenario (Bullish Continuation):
Shallow pullback into 3,105–3,115, followed by bullish continuation.
Break and hold above 3,150 opens the path to 3,190 → 3,225 → 3,260.
Invalidation / Risk Scenario:
Acceptance below 3,050 on a 1H close invalidates the setup and reopens downside toward 3,000 psychological support.
5. Trading Guidance
Favor buy the dip setups near demand; avoid chasing mid-range.
Use confirmation on pullbacks (rejection wicks / bullish closes).
Manage risk tightly; volatility expansion is likely once liquidity above is targeted.
Discipline beats prediction — wait for structure, trade the confirmation, and let liquidity do the work.
GBPJPY Loses Momentum – Beware of the Pullback TrapAs the macro landscape begins to shift , GBPJPY is no longer able to maintain its previous bullish rhythm. Expectations that Japan is moving closer to policy tightening , while the UK faces rising risks of slower growth , are gradually pushing capital out of GBP and into JPY. This shift creates a clear foundation for a downward corrective phase in the pair.
On the H4 timeframe, price structure shows clear signs of exhaustion after an extended rally . Price repeatedly tested the upper boundary of the ascending channel but failed to break higher, then rolled over and lost the short-term equilibrium zone. The increasingly weak pullbacks signal that buyers are no longer in control, while sellers are starting to use rallies to apply pressure.
The 208.00 level is now a critical boundary. As long as price remains capped below this zone, the bias continues to favor the bearish scenario, with 206.60 emerging as the next logical target. This area is not only a technical support, but also a zone where the market may briefly pause to reassess supply and demand dynamics.
Overall, GBPJPY appears to be entering a phase of controlled decline rather than a sharp breakdown . The more appropriate strategy at this stage is to patiently wait for pullbacks to sell, instead of rushing to catch a bottom. And if the downside momentum persists, the market may be opening a new chapter — one where control no longer rests with the bulls as it once did.
EURUSD: A Brief Pause Before Acceleration?In the current environment, where the market is still pricing in a weaker USD scenario due to expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve , EURUSD has a solid foundation to maintain its bullish momentum . When the greenback lacks strong upside momentum, capital tends to rotate into counterpart currencies like the euro , especially when the technical structure clearly supports the trend .
From a chart perspective, EURUSD is trading within a well-defined rising wedge , following a clean rhythm of push higher – pull back – continuation. The previous impulsive rally printed a new high, and instead of selling off aggressively, price shifted into consolidation above the equilibrium zone, signaling that buyers remain firmly in control. The Ichimoku system is also leaning bullish, with price holding at elevated levels, reinforcing the trend continuation scenario.
In terms of price action, the 1.1720 zone is a key pivot. It serves both as a healthy retest area within the rising wedge and a balance point where buyers are likely to defend structure. If price pulls back toward 1.1720 and shows a clear bullish reaction, EURUSD has a high probability of extending toward the 1.1790 region — an area where short-term profit-taking and volatility typically emerge.
In summary, with fundamentals and technicals aligned , the highest-probability approach remains buying pullbacks rather than chasing price. And if 1.1790 is tested in the coming sessions, the real question will no longer be whether price can go higher, but whether the market pauses there — or ignites a much larger breakout for the next bullish leg.
AUDNZD: Tight Consolidation_Preparing for the Next Upward LegAUDNZD is entering a phase where the market looks “mature enough” to continue its uptrend , as AUD maintains a stronger base than NZD thanks to diverging policy expectations . While the RBA remains cautious about inflation, the market is increasingly less confident about the RBNZ outlook , causing short-term capital flows to lean toward AUD. This divergence forms a key foundation supporting a bullish bias for AUDNZD.
On the 4H chart, the price structure remains clean and well-defined. After rebounding from the lows, the market is now consolidating within a tight range with higher lows forming. Price is holding firmly above the 1.1450 support zone, signaling that selling pressure is not strong enough to break the structure . The current setup favors a pullback → consolidation → continuation scenario rather than a trend reversal.
In this context, 1.1450 acts as a critical anchor point for buyers. As long as price continues to hold above this level, AUDNZD has a solid basis to advance toward 1.1500 in the short term. The preferred strategy is to prioritize BUY setups on pullbacks , while avoiding chasing price near resistance .
In summary , AUDNZD is displaying a move that is “calm yet decisive.” As long as the trend structure remains intact and capital continues to favor buyers, patience in waiting for the right entry zone will be the key to staying aligned with the market in a disciplined and sustainable way.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 16, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Delayed jobs + retail combo: Backlogged payrolls and retail sales hit together, shaping growth and soft-landing narratives.
• Wages in focus: Hourly earnings and YoY wages matter for inflation stickiness after last week’s Fed messaging.
• Flash PMIs: Real-time read on December activity for services and manufacturing.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
8 30 AM
• U.S. Employment Report (Nov, delayed): 45,000
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov): 4.5 percent
• U.S. Hourly Wages (Nov): 0.3 percent
• Hourly Wages YoY: 3.6 percent
• U.S. Retail Sales (Oct, delayed): 0.1 percent
• Retail Sales minus autos (Oct): 0.2 percent
9 45 AM
• S and P Flash U.S. Services PMI (Dec): 54.0
• S and P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 52.5
10 00 AM
• Business Inventories (Sept): 0.1 percent
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #jobs #retailsales #PMI #macro #markets #trading






















