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Correction Is Not a Reversal — Gold Is Reloading 1. Market Structure Overview - Gold is still trading within a medium-term bullish structure, but price has entered a short-term corrective phase after failing to hold above the upper resistance zone. - Strong rejection occurred at the POC / resistance area 4.35x – 4.38x, confirming active profit-taking. The current price action is developing a classic ABC correction: - Wave A: Completed with a sharp pullback. - Wave B: Ongoing technical rebound. Importantly, price remains above the major moving averages, meaning the primary uptrend is still intact. This correction is technical in nature, not a trend reversal. 2. Market Context & Liquidity Behavior Sellers are active near the highs, but downside momentum remains controlled. The market is likely seeking liquidity clearance before deciding the next impulsive move. The 4.26x – 4.20x zone stands out as a key re-accumulation area where buyers may step back in. 3. Today’s Price Scenarios 🔹 Primary Scenario (High Probability) Price continues its corrective leg toward 4.26x – 4.20x. This zone acts as a decision point: Holding above it → supports re-accumulation and trend continuation. Strong breakdown → opens room for a deeper short-term correction. 🔹 Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability) Failure to reclaim strength after the correction may extend downside pressure. Confirmation only occurs if support is decisively broken with volume. 4. Intraday Trading Setups — Re-Accumulation Focus 📌 SETUP 1 – Intraday Sell (Correction Timing) XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 4369 – 4372 Take Profit: 4366 – 4361 Stop Loss: 4376 📌 SETUP 2 – Intraday Buy (Re-Accumulation Zone) XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4262 – 4265 Take Profit: 4268 – 4273 Stop Loss: 4258 ⚠️ Always apply strict risk management to protect capital. 5. Summary & Trading Guidance Main Trend: Bullish Short-Term State: Correction → Re-accumulation Bias: Wait for price to reach key zones, avoid chasing highs 👉 Today’s session is a balancing phase. The market’s reaction at the support zone will define whether gold resumes its uptrend or extends the correction. Patience and discipline remain the optimal strategy.

Short

by RexTraderSignal

Updated

EURUSD Is Trapped Below Resistance — Distribution Before....EURUSD – H1 MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure EURUSD is currently trading within a short-term corrective structure after a strong impulsive decline. The recent rebound failed to break above the key resistance zone, confirming that sellers are still in control of the broader intraday trend. Price action shows: - A clear lower-high formation near the resistance zone. - Weak bullish follow-through after each bounce. - Compression around the mid-range, indicating distribution rather than accumulation. 2. Key Zones - Resistance Zone: 1.1750 – 1.1760 This zone has rejected price multiple times, acting as a supply area where sellers aggressively defend. - Support Zone: 1.1700 – 1.1710 This is the nearest liquidity pool and the first downside objective. 3. Price Behavior & Liquidity The sharp rejection from resistance followed by sideways consolidation suggests that the market is absorbing buy orders before continuation lower. The lack of strong bullish candles confirms that the rebound is corrective, not impulsive. This behavior typically precedes: - A stop-hunt below short-term consolidation - Continuation toward deeper liquidity zones 4. Scenario Outlook 🔽 Primary Scenario (Preferred): Bearish Continuation Price fails to reclaim the resistance zone Breakdown below intraday structure Targets: Target 1: 1.1720 Target 2: 1.1700 Target 3: 1.1685 (major liquidity draw) 🔼 Alternative Scenario Only if price breaks and holds above 1.1760 with strong momentum, the bearish setup is invalidated, and a deeper recovery may unfold. 5. Trading Bias Main Bias: Bearish Market State: Distribution → Liquidity Grab Strategy: Sell rallies near resistance, avoid chasing price in the middle of the range. Conclusion EURUSD is not building strength it is preparing for continuation. As long as price remains below the resistance zone, downside liquidity remains the dominant magnet. Patience and discipline are key; the market will reveal direction once liquidity is released.

Short

by RexTraderSignal

Updated

EURUSD Looks Calm — But Smart Money Is Setting the Trap EURUSD – H1 MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Current Market Structure EURUSD is trading inside a short-term corrective structure after the previous impulsive decline. Price has formed a lower-high sequence, confirming that the dominant intraday bias remains bearish. The recent bounce from the support zone is corrective in nature, not a trend reversal. Key observations: - Lower highs are clearly respected - Price is failing to regain previous breakdown levels - Structure remains below key resistance 2. Key Zones & Price Behavior Resistance Zone: 1.1748 – 1.1760 This zone aligns with prior structure highs and acts as a sell-side supply area. Repeated rejection here confirms seller control. Support Zone: 1.1700 – 1.1710 This is a short-term demand zone, but it has already been tested. Each retest weakens buyer strength. 3. Market Psychology The market is currently trapping late buyers who interpret the bounce as a reversal. In reality, this is a classic distribution phase inside a downtrend: - Smart money sells into strength - Retail traders buy the pullback - Liquidity builds above resistance before continuation lower This sideways behavior near resistance often precedes sharp downside expansion. 4. Scenarios Ahead Primary Scenario (High Probability – Bearish Continuation): - Price retests the resistance zone (1.1748 – 1.1760) - Fails to break and hold above - Strong rejection leads to downside continuation Targets: Target 1: 1.1720 Target 2: 1.1700 Target 3: 1.1685 (liquidity pool) Invalidation Scenario: - Only if H1 closes firmly above 1.1760 - And structure shifts to higher highs - Until then, all upside is corrective. 5. Trading Bias & Conclusion Bias: Sell rallies Market State: Correction within a bearish structure Strategy: Wait for rejection at resistance, follow structure — not emotion This is not a guessing market. The chart is clearly showing where liquidity is being built and where it wants to go. Patience and discipline remain the edge.

by RexTraderSignal

Updated

GBPUSD Weak Rebound – Is Every Rally a Selling Opportunity?GBPUSD is currently leaning toward a scenario of mild downside or low-range consolidation rather than a clear bullish move. From a macro perspective, the British pound remains under pressure following the recent interest rate cut by the Bank of England. While this move was largely priced in, the accompanying message suggests that BoE is still open to further easing if the UK economy continues to cool. This has made short-term capital flows more cautious toward GBP, especially during rebound phases. On the other side, the USD continues to hold a relative advantage as investors wait for clearer signals from upcoming US economic data. In the absence of negative surprises for the dollar, GBPUSD lacks strong momentum to push higher, and each rally toward higher levels is more likely to turn into a short-term selling opportunity. Looking at price behavior, GBPUSD is showing signs of a “pullback within a weak trend” . Upside momentum remains limited, rebounds are shallow, and follow-through buying is lacking—indicating that buyers are not yet ready to take control in the short term. Conclusion: Over the next 24 hours, GBPUSD favors a scenario of slight downside or pressured consolidation rather than a strong advance. The more prudent strategy is to wait for technical pullbacks and observe price reaction, instead of rushing to anticipate the formation of a new bullish trend.

Short

by Paradise_Noir

Wheat in Focus: How Ukraine, China, and Weather could move Wheat Wheat is one of the world’s most widely traded agricultural commodities, essential for food and animal feed. Prices are heavily influenced by global supply and demand, with major producers including the U.S., Russia, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine. Weather conditions, geopolitical events, and large importer activity can all create significant volatility in the market. Let’s break it down. 1. What Drives Wheat Prices Supply Factors Wheat supply is heavily shaped by the major exporting regions—Russia, the EU, Australia, the U.S., Canada, and Ukraine. Weather is the biggest swing factor: drought, heat stress, floods, or winterkill can quickly tighten global supply and spark rallies. Crop progress reports and yield updates show how each production cycle is developing, while geopolitics—especially in the Black Sea—can disrupt export flows overnight. Input costs like fertilizer and fuel influence how much farmers plant, and currency moves affect which exporters are most competitive. Together, these factors determine how much wheat the world can actually deliver to the market. To summarize: Major producers: Russia, EU, Australia, U.S., Canada, Ukraine Weather: drought, heat stress, winterkill, floods Crop progress: planting pace, crop conditions, yield expectations Geopolitics: Black Sea tensions, export bans, sanctions, port disruptions Input costs: fertilizer, fuel, logistics Currency impact: strong USD usually weighs on wheat prices Demand Factors Demand for wheat is driven by global food consumption, animal feed needs, and the buying behavior of major importers such as China, Egypt, and Indonesia. Economic conditions matter because stronger economies consume more food and feed. Price relationships with other grains like corn and rice can shift demand toward or away from wheat. Changes in trade flows—such as China sourcing more from the U.S. instead of the Black Sea—can quickly redirect global shipments. These factors help traders understand whether demand is strengthening or weakening relative to available supply. To summarize: Global consumption (food + feed use) Large importer buying: China, Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey Economic conditions in EM (Emerging Markets) Substitution vs. corn/rice Global trade flow shifts 2. Key Reports Traders Actually Need to Track Instead of monitoring everything, wheat traders focus on the handful of reports that truly move price: WASDE (Monthly) – The most important report in wheat trading. This is where global production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks get revised. Wheat can rip or dump instantly on WASDE changes. If you track only one thing, track WASDE. Weekly USDA Export Sales – This shows an immediate view of demand. Watch for: Big purchases from China, Egypt, Indonesia Surprising cancellations Shifts from Black Sea to U.S. buying It’s one of the fastest ways to spot demand changes ahead of price. Crop Progress (Weekly, in season) – Important only during planting, growing and harvesting periods. The report tracks: % planted % harvested Crop condition (% good/excellent) Poor Conditions generally = bullish. Strong Conditions generally = bearish Geopolitical headlines – In our opinion wheat is the most geopolitically sensitive commodity. Anything related to the following can cause immediate moves.: Corridor shutdowns Port attacks Export bans Ceasefire rumors This is the intraday volatility driver that news traders capitalize on. Weather in key regions (Daily / weekly) – Focus on the key regions of the U.S. Plains, Black Sea, Australia. Drought in these regions generally = bullish. Good moisture generally = bearish. Use simple sources like NOAA maps or short ag weather summaries (weather reports that impact agriculture). CFTC COT (Weekly) – This is for context and is not used for trading signals. It shows whether funds are heavily long or short. Only the extremes matter: Funds very short → short-covering rallies possible Funds very long → risk of liquidation selloffs This report is more relevant for swing and position traders. 3. Recent Market Drivers Peace-proposal speculation: Reports of a U.S. proposal involving Ukraine ceding Donbas triggered a fast selloff as markets priced in the possibility of Ukrainian exports normalizing. Zelenskiy has stated he won’t accept territorial concessions, so a confirmed ceasefire remains unlikely unless U.S./EU pressure increases. Market reaction: Wheat dumped immediately on the headline, but the move didn’t sustain — traders want confirmation, not speculation. China buying U.S. wheat: Ongoing chatter that China is shifting some purchases to the U.S. (no official tonnage yet). This is a supportive demand story worth monitoring. 4. Chart Analysis: Recent Price Action and What to expect The developing monthly VPOC for November 2025 has shifted higher, marking a potential change in market sentiment after three consecutive months of declining VPOCs. In addition, the developing VA for November appears unlikely to overlap with the previous month’s VA. This suggests that market conditions are changing and that the recent downward trend may be ending. Market based out around 520 and rallied from mid-October to early November, breaking 552’4 (previous seller defense) and reclaiming back above 559’6 daily level. This rally was likely supported by the potential U.S.–China trade deal and initial Chinese wheat purchases in early November. However, sellers stepped in at 570 (July’s VAL + monthly 1SD high), offering price back below 559’6. Market is now rotating inside a developing range between 559’6 and the 540–535’6 zone (October settlement/LVN) to establish value. Bearish Scenario A break and acceptance below 540 opens the door toward: 520 (October’s VPOC + monthly 0.5SD low) 510 (October low) 504’6 (monthly 1SD low) Catalyst: Any news of confirmed progress toward a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire → removal of war-premium → likely downside. Bullish Scenario If market accepts back above 559’6, sets up a move toward: 570 (July VAL / M 1SD high) — expect sellers here. 585’6 (July VPOC) if 570 is cleared Catalyst: Headline reversal or escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Neutral Scenario Without fresh catalysts, expect continued range rotation between 559’6 and 540, with the market establishing value in this zone. 5. Conclusion Wheat remains a headline-driven and weather-sensitive market, where geopolitical developments, major buyer activity, and crop conditions can quickly shift sentiment. Traders should monitor key reports and technical levels while staying aware of global supply and demand dynamics. With multiple factors in play, range rotations and sudden spikes or drops are likely until a clear catalyst drives the market decisively. What are your thoughts? Are you watching the headlines, weather, or technical levels for clues? Please share your insights below and give this post a boost so the rest of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation) LVN (Low Value Node) VA (Value Area)

Updated

XAUUSD – The UP Trend Is Still Well Protected The gold market is no longer asking “will it go up or not” — the real question now is how the rally unfolds . When we combine the news backdrop with the price structure on the chart, the bullish picture of XAUUSD becomes increasingly clear. On the fundamental side , recent U.S. economic data shows a cooling labor market , while expectations for the Fed to continue easing monetary policy remain intact . Yields and the USD are not strong enough to trigger a deep sell-off, and safe-haven demand is still present. This creates a solid macro foundation supporting higher gold prices, rather than a random technical bounce. From a technical perspective , the uptrend remains clean and well-structured: • Price is above the Ichimoku cloud, and the cloud is sloping upward → the primary trend remains bullish. • The 4,300 zone is acting as both a dynamic and psychological support, where price has just pulled back and reacted positively. • The long-term ascending trendline remains intact → the Higher Low structure is still preserved. The most logical scenario at this stage is consolidation above 4,300, followed by a continuation toward the 4,380 – 4,390 zone, where the upper trendline resistance converges. This is a classic behavior of a strong market: no sharp sell-offs, no panic — just a pause before the next leg higher. 👉 In summary: The UPTREND in XAUUSD continues to dominate. As long as 4,300 holds, any pullback should be viewed as a trend-following opportunity, not a reversal signal.

Long

by Paradise_Noir

Updated

XRPUSD - ETF Inflows Hit $1.2B But Whales Dumping b]Executive Summary BITSTAMP:XRPUSD is trading at approximately $1.92 after recovering from recent lows, currently testing the critical $1.95 resistance level. Despite the historic launch of US spot XRP ETFs accumulating $1.2 billion in assets with ZERO negative outflow days, the price remains under pressure. On-chain data reveals a troubling divergence: while retail piles into ETFs, whales have been systematically offloading holdings on exchanges. This analysis examines whether XRP can break through $1.95 resistance or if continued whale selling will push price toward the $1.50-$1.66 support zone. NEUTRAL BIAS - Two Scenarios Presented I'm presenting both bullish and bearish scenarios because the data is genuinely mixed. ETF inflows are historically bullish, but whale behavior is bearish. Let the market show its hand. Current Market Context - December 21, 2025 XRP finds itself at a fascinating crossroads: Price: $1.9249 (up 0.18% on the day) Day's Range: $1.9014 - $1.9257 52-Week Range: $1.6106 - $3.662 Market Cap: $116.52 billion (battling BNB for #3 spot) 24h Trading Volume: $2.36 billion Down 50% from July 2025 ATH of $3.65 The broader context: Crypto market shed over $1.3 trillion since October XRP down 30%+ over past three months Fed hawkishness pressuring all risk assets Yet XRP ETFs seeing unprecedented inflows THE BIG STORY: ETF Success vs. Whale Dumping Historic ETF Launch - $1.2 Billion in Assets Canary Capital launched the first US spot XRP ETF, hitting nearly $250 million in volume on its first day - a RECORD for non-Ethereum altcoin ETFs. The numbers are impressive: Total XRP ETF Assets: $1.2 billion Net Inflows: $1 billion since launch Canary XRP ETF: $335 million AUM (market leader) 21Shares: $250+ million Grayscale: $220+ million Bitwise and Franklin Templeton also participating ZERO negative outflow days since debut This should be massively bullish. With Bitcoin and Ethereum, ETF launches drove significant price appreciation. So why isn't XRP responding? The Whale Problem - On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA uncovered the issue: whales started offloading their holdings on exchanges as ETF expectations heightened. They provided the sell-side liquidity for retail investors buying the ETF launch news. Key findings from Exchange Inflow data: Majority of inflows coming from 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands (whales) After each major inflow spike, price forms lower highs and lower lows Supply is overwhelming demand despite ETF buying Whales not aggressively dumping, but continuous supply increase keeps pushing price lower This explains why XRP faces selling pressure each time it approaches $1.95 CRITICAL: Exchange inflows would need to dry up first before XRP can see a sustained bullish run. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 45 Minute Timeframe The chart shows a clear pattern evolution: Phase 1 - Descending Channel (Previous Weeks): Price was trapped in a descending channel/wedge pattern Lower highs and lower lows dominated Breakdown from the channel led to capitulation Phase 2 - V-Bottom Recovery: Sharp selloff found support at major support zone V-shaped recovery initiated Price reclaimed lost ground quickly Phase 3 - Ascending Channel (Current): Price now trading within an ascending channel Higher lows forming off the bottom Currently testing upper resistance of the channel Fair Value Gap (FVG) identified in the middle of the range Decision point: breakout or rejection? Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $1.95 - CRITICAL resistance (whale selling zone, repeated rejections) $2.00 - Psychological round number resistance $2.10-$2.15 - Secondary resistance zone $2.50 - Major resistance / bullish target $3.00 - Major psychological level $3.65 - All-time high (July 2025) Support Levels: $1.90 - Immediate support (current price area) $1.82-$1.87 - FIRST MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE (historical buying activity) $1.77 - CRITICAL SUPPORT (large accumulation zone per Glassnode) $1.66 - Secondary support $1.50-$1.60 - Deep support if whale selling continues $0.79 - Next meaningful support if $1.77 breaks (THIN LIQUIDITY between) WARNING: Ali Martinez's Glassnode data shows a THIN LIQUIDITY ZONE below $1.77. If that level breaks, there's limited support until $0.79. This is a critical risk factor. Chart Pattern Analysis Current structure shows an ascending channel within a larger recovery: Channel support: Rising trendline from recent lows Channel resistance: Parallel line connecting recent highs Price currently testing upper channel resistance near $1.95 Fair Value Gap (FVG) sits in the middle of the range - potential retest zone Two clear scenarios: breakout above channel or rejection back to FVG/support Fibonacci Analysis Measuring from the July ATH ($3.65) to recent lows: Current price ($1.92) represents approximately 47% decline from ATH Key Fib levels to watch for recovery targets 0.382 retracement would target ~$2.50 area 0.5 retracement would target ~$2.70 area Fundamental Analysis Bullish Fundamentals 1. XRP ETF Ecosystem Thriving $1.2 billion in assets - unprecedented for altcoin ETF Zero negative outflow days Multiple major issuers participating (Canary, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton) Institutional infrastructure now established 2. Ripple Ecosystem Developments XRPL Lending Protocol launching for institutions Fixed-term, fixed-rate loans (30-180 days) Secured by Single Asset Vaults Validator voting expected late January 2026 Protocol-native credit markets coming to XRPL 3. Ripple Escrow System - Institutional Design According to XRP investor Lord Belgrave, Ripple's escrow mechanism was deliberately structured for institutional deployment: 55 billion XRP locked in escrow contracts 1 billion XRP scheduled for release monthly 700-800 million typically re-locked Only 200-300 million effectively released monthly NDAs with institutions across Europe, Middle East, Asia Discussions allegedly included central banks, IMF, BIS NDAs may be nearing disclosure phase as systems move to active deployment 4. Banks May Favor Higher XRP Price Finance expert Dr. Camila Stevenson argues: Banks look at whether a system can handle stress and move large sums XRP has fixed supply - price is the only way to support larger volumes Banks moving billions prefer fewer units representing more value Fewer tokens = simpler settlement, less slippage risk Higher XRP price could support smoother transfers at scale 5. Market Cap Battle XRP market cap: $116.36 billion BNB market cap: $117.71 billion Only $1.35 billion difference XRP vying for #3 spot in crypto Bearish Fundamentals 1. Whale Selling Pressure 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands driving exchange inflows Whales offloaded as ETF expectations heightened Continuous supply increase overwhelming demand Price forms lower highs after each inflow spike $1.95 resistance repeatedly defended by sellers 2. Thin Liquidity Risk Below $1.77, next meaningful support is $0.79 Limited accumulation between these levels If $1.77 breaks, could see rapid decline 3. Analyst Skepticism on Altcoin ETFs Markus Thielen (10x Research founder) predicts: Most non-Bitcoin crypto ETFs unlikely to achieve lasting success Institutional demand centers on Bitcoin Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative resonates with institutions Altcoins like XRP lack compelling institutional narrative 4. Macro Headwinds Crypto market shed $1.3 trillion since October Fed projecting only two rate cuts for 2026 Risk-off sentiment persisting XRP down 30%+ over three months Analysts warn of potential cooling period in 2026 5. Price Performance Lagging 7-Day: -2.78% 1-Month: -12.91% 3-Month: -7.49% Down 50% from ATH despite ETF success ETF inflows not translating to price appreciation SCENARIO ANALYSIS - NEUTRAL STANCE BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $1.95 Trigger Conditions: Daily close above $1.95 with volume confirmation Exchange inflows from whales decrease significantly ETF inflows continue/accelerate Bitcoin stabilizes above $95,000 Break above ascending channel resistance Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $2.00 - Psychological level Target 2: $2.15-$2.20 - Secondary resistance Target 3: $2.50 - Major resistance / analyst target Extended: $3.00+ if momentum sustains Bullish Catalysts to Watch: XRPL Lending Protocol validator voting (late January 2026) Potential NDA disclosures from institutional partners Continued ETF inflows Altcoin season rotation (expected January 2026) XRP flipping BNB for #3 market cap BEARISH SCENARIO - Rejection at $1.95 Trigger Conditions: Rejection candle at $1.95 with increased volume Whale exchange inflows continue/increase Break below ascending channel support Bitcoin weakness below $90,000 ETF inflows slow significantly Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $1.82-$1.87 - First major support zone Target 2: $1.77 - Critical support (Glassnode accumulation zone) Target 3: $1.50-$1.66 - Deep support if whale selling persists DANGER ZONE: Below $1.77 = thin liquidity to $0.79 Bearish Risks to Monitor: Continued whale offloading on exchanges ETF narrative failing to drive price Broader crypto market weakness Fed maintaining hawkish stance Break of $1.77 critical support Trade Framework Bullish Trade Setup Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes above $1.95 with volume RSI breaks above 55 Ascending channel breakout confirmed Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.96-$2.00 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $1.85 below recent support Target 1: $2.15 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5) Target 2: $2.50 (Risk-Reward ~1:3.5) Target 3: $3.00 (Extended) Bearish Trade Setup Entry Conditions: Rejection candle at $1.95 with upper wick Break below $1.87 support Volume confirmation on breakdown Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.86-$1.87 on support break Stop Loss: $1.96 above resistance Target 1: $1.77 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $1.60 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.7) Target 3: $1.50 (Extended) Range Trade Setup (If Consolidation Continues) Parameters: Buy Zone: $1.82-$1.87 Sell Zone: $1.93-$1.95 Stop Loss: $1.75 (below range) This setup works while price remains in the ascending channel Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 2-3% max risk per trade CRITICAL: Respect the $1.77 level - thin liquidity below Watch whale exchange inflows via CryptoQuant Monitor ETF flow data daily Reduce exposure during holiday low-liquidity period Use hard stops - whale selling can accelerate moves Scale out at targets rather than all-or-nothing exits Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $1.77 on daily timeframe Whale exchange inflows spike significantly ETF outflows begin (first negative day) Bitcoin breaks below $88,000 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $2.00 with volume Whale exchange inflows dry up ETF inflows accelerate significantly XRP flips BNB for #3 market cap Conclusion BITSTAMP:XRPUSD presents a genuinely mixed picture. The ETF success story ($1.2B in assets, zero outflow days) should be bullish, but whale behavior tells a different story. On-chain data shows large holders systematically offloading at the $1.95 resistance level, providing sell-side liquidity for retail ETF buyers. The Key Question: Will ETF demand eventually overwhelm whale supply, or will whales continue to cap rallies? Critical Levels: $1.95 - THE level to watch. Break above = bullish, rejection = bearish $1.77 - Must hold. Thin liquidity below to $0.79 $2.50 - Bullish target if breakout occurs $1.50-$1.60 - Bearish target if whale selling continues My Stance: NEUTRAL I'm not calling a direction here. The data genuinely supports both scenarios. Let price action at $1.95 determine the next move. Trade the reaction, not the prediction. Watch For: Whale exchange inflow data (CryptoQuant) ETF flow momentum XRPL Lending Protocol news (January 2026) Bitcoin correlation and direction This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.

by officialjackofalltrades

GBPUSD is Nearing an Important Support Area!!Hey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.33250 zone, GBPUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.33250 support and resistance area. Trade safe, Joe.

Long

$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 22 to Dec 26, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 22 to Dec 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Holiday week liquidity: Thin volumes amplify moves, especially around Tuesday’s data dump. • Delayed macro catch-up: GDP and durable goods hit at once, giving markets a late-cycle growth read before year-end positioning. • Consumer confidence update: One of the few forward-looking signals in a quiet, holiday-shortened week. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Tuesday, Dec 23 8 30 AM • GDP Q3 (delayed): 3.2 percent • Durable Goods Orders (Oct, delayed): -1.1 percent 9 15 AM • Industrial Production (Oct): 0.1 percent • Capacity Utilization (Oct): 75.9 percent • Industrial Production (Nov): 0.1 percent • Capacity Utilization (Nov): 76.0 percent 10 00 AM • Consumer Confidence (Dec): 91.7 Wednesday, Dec 24 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 20): 225,000 Thursday, Dec 25 • Christmas Holiday — Markets Closed Friday, Dec 26 • No major data scheduled ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #markets #macro #holidayweek #GDP #durablegoods #consumerconfidence

Long

ETHUSD - Leverage Ratio Hits ALL-TIME HIGH BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is trading at approximately 2976 USD after a sharp 28 percent correction from the December 14-15 highs near 3980 USD to the December 18-19 lows around 2850 USD. While the hawkish Federal Reserve meeting triggered this selloff, on-chain data is flashing unprecedented bullish signals. Binance's Estimated Leverage Ratio just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of 0.611, and the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio spiked to 1.13 - levels not seen since September 2023. Traders are positioning aggressively for upside. The question now: is the capitulation complete, or does high leverage create liquidation risk? Current Market Context - December 21, 2025 Ethereum experienced one of its sharpest weekly declines in recent months, dropping from nearly 4000 USD to below 2900 USD in just four days. The catalyst was the Federal Reserve December 18 meeting where the central bank delivered a more hawkish stance than markets anticipated, projecting only two rate cuts for 2026. The selloff was exacerbated by: Broad risk-off sentiment across all crypto assets Bitcoin dropping from 108000 USD to below 92000 USD Over 1 billion USD in crypto liquidations within 24 hours Ethereum ETF outflows as institutional investors reduced exposure Year-end profit taking and portfolio rebalancing However, the bounce from 2850 USD and current stabilization around 2976 USD suggests the initial panic selling may be exhausted. More importantly, on-chain metrics are telling a different story than price action. CRITICAL ON-CHAIN DATA - Record Bullish Positioning Estimated Leverage Ratio - ALL-TIME HIGH Data from CryptoQuant shows Ethereum's Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has climbed to 0.611 - the highest level EVER recorded for this metric. This ratio compares open interest to exchange reserves, revealing how much borrowed capital traders are deploying relative to available liquidity. What this means: Traders are committing record leveraged positions anticipating favorable price movement Current reading surpasses ALL previous cycle peaks This environment amplifies price moves - modest spot changes can trigger large liquidations Risk appetite among traders is at unprecedented levels Taker Buy/Sell Ratio - Highest Since September 2023 The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio recently spiked to 1.13 on Binance - a level last observed in September 2023. A reading above 1 indicates market participants are executing more buy orders than sell orders. Strong taker demand combined with rising leverage reveals optimism dominating short-term sentiment Historical data shows spikes in this ratio often coincide with increased volatility Traders are positioning ahead of a potential attempt to reclaim 3000 USD This buying pressure is notable given ETH is trading around 2900-3000 USD WARNING: While these metrics are bullish, record leverage is a double-edged sword. If price moves against leveraged positions, liquidation cascades can accelerate downside moves dramatically. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 45 Minute Timeframe Analyzing the chart from December 14-21, 2025: Phase 1 - Distribution and Initial Decline (Dec 14-16): Price peaked near 3980 USD on December 14 Initial breakdown below 3900 USD signaled distribution Steady decline through 3800, 3700, 3600 levels Lower highs forming on each bounce attempt Volume increasing on down moves - classic distribution signature Phase 2 - Capitulation Event (Dec 17-19): Sharp acceleration of selling on December 17-18 Price crashed through multiple support levels without pause Breakdown from 3400 to 2850 USD in approximately 36 hours This represented a 16 percent drop in less than two days Capitulation volume spike visible on the December 18-19 lows Long wicks on candles near 2850 USD showing buyer absorption Phase 3 - Stabilization and Accumulation (Dec 19-21): Strong bounce from 2850 USD low Price recovered to 2976 USD representing 4.4 percent recovery from lows Higher lows forming: 2850 to 2880 to 2920 to current levels Consolidation range establishing between 2950-3000 USD Decreasing volatility suggesting selling pressure exhaustion On-chain data confirms accumulation phase is active Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: 3000-3020 USD - Immediate psychological resistance and round number 3080-3100 USD - Previous support turned resistance from December 17 3200-3250 USD - Major horizontal resistance zone 3400-3450 USD - Secondary resistance from pre-crash consolidation 3600-3650 USD - Major resistance zone 3900-4000 USD - December highs and psychological barrier Support Levels: 2950-2960 USD - Immediate support from current consolidation 2900-2920 USD - Recent higher low support 2850-2870 USD - Capitulation low and critical support 2700-2800 USD - MAJOR DEMAND ZONE (Analyst Confluence) 2600-2650 USD - Deep support from November 2025 levels The 2700-2800 Demand Zone - Analyst Confluence Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has outlined a clear technical roadmap identifying the 2700-2800 USD zone as a major demand area . According to his analysis, ETH recently tapped into this important demand zone and has started to rebound. This move occurred when Ethereum broke below 3000 USD to reach a low of 2781 USD on December 18. Multiple analysts are highlighting this zone as critical support with strong buyer interest. The fact that price bounced sharply from this area and on-chain metrics show record bullish positioning suggests smart money is accumulating here. Chart Pattern Analysis The current structure shows characteristics of a potential falling wedge pattern: Lower highs connecting from 3980 to 3400 to 3100 area Lower lows from 3600 to 3000 to 2850 However, the most recent price action shows higher lows forming off 2850 This divergence between lower highs and higher lows creates compression Breakout direction will determine next major move Falling wedges typically resolve to the upside Fibonacci Retracement Analysis Measuring from the November 2025 low (approximately 2400 USD) to the December 2025 high (3980 USD): 0.236 retracement: 3607 USD - Already broken 0.382 retracement: 3376 USD - Already broken 0.5 retracement: 3190 USD - Already broken 0.618 retracement: 3004 USD - Currently testing this level 0.786 retracement: 2739 USD - Held as support (low was 2850) The bounce from near the 0.786 Fibonacci level is significant. This deep retracement level often marks the end of corrections in strong trends. The current test of the 0.618 level (3004 USD) will be crucial - a reclaim would be bullish, rejection would suggest more downside. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve Impact The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting was the primary catalyst for the selloff: Fed held rates steady but projected only two rate cuts for 2026 Markets had priced in three to four cuts, creating hawkish surprise Fed Chair emphasized data dependency and willingness to maintain restrictive policy Higher-for-longer rates increase opportunity cost of holding crypto assets Risk assets across the board sold off following the announcement Altcoin Season Approaching - January 2026 A growing number of market analysts believe the long-awaited altcoin season may finally arrive in January 2026, with new data suggesting a shift in liquidity conditions. Ethereum's market behavior has attracted analysts who are highlighting a shift in leadership, typically seen only after a strong Bitcoin rally. This is significant because: Bitcoin has already made its major move from 60K to 108K Capital rotation into altcoins typically follows BTC dominance peaks ETH historically leads altcoin rallies January sees fresh institutional allocations entering the market Ethereum-Specific Fundamentals Despite the price decline, Ethereum fundamentals remain constructive: Ethereum staking continues to grow with over 34 million ETH staked Layer 2 adoption accelerating with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism seeing record activity Ethereum ETF infrastructure now established providing institutional access Pectra upgrade scheduled for Q1 2026 bringing account abstraction improvements DeFi Total Value Locked on Ethereum remains above 60 billion USD Security Concerns - Risk Factor The crypto space continues to face security challenges: December 20: A trader lost nearly 50 million USD in USDT to an address poisoning attack 2025 has seen over 3.4 billion USD in crypto thefts - a record year The February Bybit hack (1.4 billion USD) accounted for 44 percent of annual losses These incidents create headline risk and can spook retail investors However, institutional infrastructure and security practices continue improving ETF Flow Analysis Ethereum ETF flows have been mixed: December saw net outflows as institutions reduced risk exposure ahead of year-end The post-Fed selloff accelerated ETF redemptions However, long-term institutional interest remains intact January typically sees renewed institutional buying as new year allocations begin ETF structure provides easier access for institutions to re-enter on dips Ethereum vs Bitcoin Analysis The ETH/BTC ratio provides important context: ETH has underperformed BTC during this correction ETH/BTC ratio declined from 0.037 to 0.032 area This underperformance is typical during risk-off periods However, ETH tends to outperform during recovery phases Vitalik Buterin himself said years ago he would respect a technically competent rival - but none has emerged A stabilization in ETH/BTC would be early signal of ETH strength returning Directional Bias Assessment Arguments for Bullish Reversal: LEVERAGE RATIO AT ALL-TIME HIGH (0.611) - Record bullish positioning TAKER BUY/SELL RATIO AT 1.13 - Highest since September 2023 Capitulation volume and price action suggest panic selling exhausted Bounce from 0.786 Fibonacci level is technically significant 2700-2800 demand zone confirmed by multiple analysts Higher lows forming off the 2850 USD bottom Exchange outflows during dip suggest accumulation occurring Altcoin season expected January 2026 per multiple analysts Strong fundamental backdrop with staking growth and L2 adoption Pectra upgrade catalyst approaching in Q1 2026 Arguments for Bearish Continuation: Price remains below all major moving averages No confirmed trend reversal pattern yet Fed hawkishness could continue pressuring risk assets RECORD LEVERAGE = LIQUIDATION RISK if price drops ETH underperforming BTC suggests relative weakness Holiday liquidity conditions could exacerbate any selling 3000 USD psychological resistance may cap rallies Security concerns (50M hack, 3.4B stolen in 2025) create headline risk ETF outflows may continue into year-end My Assessment - Bullish with Leverage Caution: The weight of evidence leans bullish. Record on-chain metrics showing unprecedented trader positioning for upside, combined with technical support holding and analyst confluence on the 2700-2800 demand zone, suggests the capitulation low should hold. HOWEVER - the record leverage is a double-edged sword. If 2850 breaks, liquidation cascades could accelerate the move down significantly. Bullish Confirmation: A daily close above 3050 USD with volume would confirm the bottom and open path to 3200-3400 USD. Bearish Confirmation: A break below 2850 USD would trigger leveraged liquidations and open path to 2600-2750 USD. Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): Bullish bias. On-chain data strongly supports upside. Expect attempt to reclaim 3000 USD and test 3200 USD. Long-term (1-3 months): Bullish. Altcoin season catalyst in January, Pectra upgrade in Q1, and structural drivers intact. Targets of 3400-3600 USD valid for Q1 2026. Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively above 3020 USD Volume on breakout candle exceeds recent average RSI breaks above 55 confirming momentum shift Trade Parameters: Entry: 3025-3050 USD on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 2920 USD below recent higher low Target 1: 3150-3200 USD previous support zone Target 2: 3350-3400 USD major resistance Target 3: 3550-3600 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 to first target Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Demand Zone Entry Conditions: Price retests 2700-2800 USD demand zone Bullish rejection candle with long lower wick RSI showing oversold bounce Volume spike on the bounce candle Trade Parameters: Entry: 2750-2800 USD on demand zone retest Stop Loss: 2650 USD below demand zone Target 1: 3000-3020 USD psychological resistance Target 2: 3150-3200 USD major resistance Target 3: 3350-3400 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:3 to first target Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes below 2850 USD Volume confirmation on breakdown Leverage liquidations begin cascading Trade Parameters: Entry: 2840-2850 USD on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 2920 USD above recent consolidation Target 1: 2750-2780 USD secondary support Target 2: 2650-2700 USD major support Target 3: 2500-2550 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2 to first target Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing should not exceed 2-3 percent risk per trade CRITICAL: Record leverage means volatility will be amplified Reduce size during holiday period due to lower liquidity Use hard stop losses - liquidation cascades can move price fast Scale into positions using multiple entries rather than single entry Take partial profits at each target level (33 percent at each) Move stop to breakeven after first target achieved Monitor BTC price action as correlation remains high Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 2700 USD on 4-hour or daily timeframe Lower low forms below the December 18-19 capitulation low ETH/BTC ratio breaks to new lows below 0.030 BTC breaks below 88000 USD triggering broader selloff Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 3200 USD with volume Higher high forms above 3100 USD RSI breaks above 60 with momentum ETH/BTC ratio recovers above 0.036 Conclusion BITSTAMP:ETHUSD has experienced a sharp 28 percent correction from the December highs near 3980 USD to the capitulation low around 2850 USD. While the Fed meeting triggered the selloff, on-chain data tells a powerfully bullish story. The Numbers That Matter: Leverage Ratio: 0.611 - ALL-TIME HIGH Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 1.13 - Highest since September 2023 Demand Zone: 2700-2800 USD - Multiple analyst confluence Fibonacci Support: 0.786 level held (2739 USD) Key Levels to Watch: 3000-3020 USD - Breakout confirmation level 2850 USD - Critical support / capitulation low 2700-2800 USD - Major demand zone 3200 USD - Major resistance for trend confirmation Trading Approach: The on-chain data strongly favors bulls, but record leverage means you must respect risk management. Wait for either: Bullish breakout above 3020 USD with volume to confirm bottom Retest of 2700-2800 USD demand zone for lower-risk long entry Breakdown below 2850 USD to flip bearish (watch for liquidation cascade) Altcoin season approaching in January 2026 provides a macro tailwind. The setup favors patient bulls who manage risk appropriately. Drop your comments below on the next move for ETH!

by officialjackofalltrades

WETUSDT: : short setup from daily support at 0.17900 BINANCE:WETUSDT.P has been falling practically since its listing. Today, the price hit the all-time low formed 2 days ago, and it is noteworthy that it hit the 0.179 level precisely. This level is now confirmed. All that remains is to wait for the market to be ready for its break. It is important to wait for the signals listed below, in a list format, before taking any short, as the asset is new and not entirely predictable. Key factors for this scenario: Global & local trend alignment Price void / low liquidity zone beyond level Volatility contraction on approach Immediate retest Repeated precise tests of the level Closing near the level Closing near the bar's extreme Factors that contradict this scenario: Lack of consolidation Was this analysis helpful? Leave your thoughts in the comments and follow to see more.

Short

by The_Traders_House

Updated

1000LUNCUSDT.P: short setup from daily support at 0.04315 BINANCE:1000LUNCUSDT.P , following a strong rally, consolidated briefly and then started returning to where it came from, as is often the case. We currently have a local level at 0.04315, above which the price is consolidating. The crucial criterion in this situation will be to wait for the daily bar close (UTC). If the close is near the level and close to the day's low, these will be good signals for a short position. Key factors for this scenario: Price void / low liquidity zone beyond level Volatility contraction on approach Immediate retest Closing near the level Closing near the bar's extreme Factors that contradict this scenario: Lack of consolidation Was this analysis helpful? Leave your thoughts in the comments and follow to see more.

Short

by The_Traders_House

Updated

GBPUSD Trendline Breakdown Deeper Pullback from Key Resistance This 2-hour GBP/USD chart highlights a strong bullish structure built on a rising trendline, with price respecting higher lows throughout early December. Multiple ascending and corrective channels show controlled upside momentum. Price recently tested a major resistance zone near 1.3450, failed to hold above it, and then broke down below the rising trendline, marked by the highlighted breakdown area. This loss of structure suggests a trend exhaustion / corrective phase rather than immediate continuation. Key downside levels are clearly mapped: 1.3294 as the first support / breakdown confirmation level 1.3194 as a deeper downside target if bearish momentum accelerates The chart effectively illustrates a transition from trend continuation to corrective risk, with sellers gaining short-term control after rejection at resistance.

Short

by Alpha_Trade_Scope

Updated

EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Here is my latest structure analysis and important supports and resistances for EURUSD for next week. Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.

Short

by VasilyTrader

What to Expect From Gold on Monday?! As Christmas Holidays are just around the corner, we see that many instruments started to slow down and overall volatility dropped significantly. Gold remained relatively calm the last week too. The price formed a narrow horizontal range on an hourly time frame, respecting that from Tuesday. I think that we will see a continuation of such a consolidation after the market opening. Gold will likely stay calm at least till the release of the US Core PCE Price Index after the NY Session opening. Expect price movements within the range. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.

Short

by VasilyTrader

Key Levels – Where Gold Reacts, Not Indicators?Many traders start trading gold using indicators, and that’s something almost everyone goes through. However, the longer you stay in the market, the more clearly you realize one important truth: gold does not react to indicators; it reacts at key levels . Indicators only describe what price has already done, while key levels are where real money actually makes decisions. Price does not move randomly. It reacts at important price zones. Key levels are areas where the market has shown clear reactions in the past — strong reversals, repeated rejections, or consolidation before a breakout. In gold trading, these zones often align with major highs and lows, round numbers, or areas of concentrated liquidity. This is where both retail traders and large capital are paying attention. One major reason many traders consistently enter too late is over-reliance on indicators. Indicators are always based on past price data, so when a signal appears, the key reaction has often already happened. At that point, entries are less attractive, risk-to-reward deteriorates, and the probability of false breaks or stop hunts increases. Indicators are not wrong, but they always lag behind price. Professional traders don’t try to predict whether price will go up or down. They wait for price to reach a key level and then observe how the market reacts. Is price strongly rejected, or does it break through easily? Is real buying or selling pressure actually showing up? Key levels are not places to predict — they are places to observe and react. This doesn’t mean indicators are useless. Indicators still have value for momentum confirmation or for understanding market context. But they should not be the primary factor for making entry decisions. Key levels tell you where to trade. Indicators only help you understand how price is behaving. Conclusion If you are trading gold and still searching for the “best indicator for XAUUSD,” you may be asking the wrong question. The better question is: Which key level is the market respecting right now? Because in the end, price reacts at levels — not at indicators.

Education

by Paradise_Noir

$SPY: 15m Structural Repair & Dynamic Trend Breakout What I’m Seeing: I am currently observing a confluence on the AMEX:SPY 15-minute chart following the Friday close at $680.59. My Structure Engine shows that price has fully cleared the $679 intraday demand threshold, effectively 'repairing' the liquidity void created during the mid-morning dip. Simultaneously, the Automatic Trend Line script has printed a fresh support level at $679.50, confirming that the short-term trend is now realigned with the larger bullish bias. Why It Matters: This 15m confluence is a high-confidence signal for intraday expansion. By 'sealing' the void below $679, the market has established a new structural floor. When the Automatic Trend Line engine identifies support right on top of a repaired zone, it indicates that the 'path of least resistance' has shifted upward. It suggests that intraday sellers have been absorbed and momentum is now being guided by the dynamic trend. What I Expect to See Next: I expect the 15m trend to hold as price targets the immediate pivot high at $681.50. If we see a 15m candle body close above $681.50, the 'void' to the next major resistance at $684.22 (Monday's projected range high) becomes the primary target. I will be watching for the Trend Engine to maintain its slope; a breakdown below the $676.75 support would invalidate this short-term structural repair thesis.

Long

by GammaBulldog

XAUUSD 51st Record High of 2025 | Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Historic Context - A Record-Breaking Year According to the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Market Data released December 19, 2025: Gold futures have closed at record highs 51 times in 2025 Price has surged 66 percent year-to-date to 4387.30 USD per troy ounce This is gold's best annual performance since 1979 Silver has soared 131 percent in 2025, hitting 14 record highs Both metals are on pace for their biggest gains since 1979, the last year they hit this many records This historic context is critical for understanding current price action. We are not in a normal market environment. Gold is experiencing a generational bull run driven by central bank accumulation, geopolitical uncertainty, and monetary policy expectations. Current Market Context - December 20, 2025 Gold experienced volatility following the Federal Reserve December 18, 2025 policy decision. The central bank maintained its hawkish stance, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2026 than markets anticipated. Despite this headwind, gold recovered and hit another record high on December 19. The resilience above 4300 USD despite hawkish Fed rhetoric demonstrates the strength of underlying demand from central banks and institutional investors. Key Events This Week: December 18: Federal Reserve held rates steady, projected only two rate cuts for 2026 versus market expectations of three to four December 18: US Dollar Index surged following hawkish Fed commentary, initially pressuring gold December 19: Gold recovered to close at 51st record high of 2025 at 4387.30 USD according to WSJ December 19: CFTC COT report released showing strong speculative long positioning December 20: Price consolidating near 4338 USD within symmetrical triangle pattern Ongoing: PBOC and Chinese ETF buying continues despite record high prices Ongoing: Physical demand weakness in India and China as discounts widen to multi-year highs Technical Structure Analysis Pattern Identification - Symmetrical Triangle The 45-minute chart displays a textbook symmetrical triangle formation characterized by: Converging trendlines with lower highs and higher lows Decreasing volatility as price compresses toward the apex Volume declining during the consolidation phase Pattern duration of approximately 10-12 days Apex convergence point approaching within the next 24-48 hours Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns approximately 55-60 percent of the time, but given the preceding choppy price action, this formation could break in either direction. Triangle Boundaries Upper Trendline (Descending Resistance): Connects the highs from December 12-13 around 4380-4390 USD Currently intersecting near 4355-4360 USD A decisive close above this trendline signals bullish breakout Lower Trendline (Ascending Support): Connects the lows from December 9-10 and December 18-19 Currently providing support near 4300-4310 USD A decisive close below this trendline signals bearish breakdown Key Price Levels Resistance Levels: 4355-4360 USD - Descending trendline resistance immediate 4380-4390 USD - Recent swing high and horizontal resistance 4400-4410 USD - Psychological resistance and previous rejection zone 4450-4475 USD - Major resistance from November 2025 highs 4500 USD - Psychological round number and measured move target Support Levels: 4310-4320 USD - Ascending trendline support immediate 4280-4290 USD - Horizontal support from December lows 4250-4260 USD - Previous consolidation zone 4200-4220 USD - Major support and psychological level 4150-4175 USD - Secondary support if breakdown accelerates Moving Average Analysis Price is oscillating around the 20-period moving average indicating indecision The 50-period moving average is relatively flat confirming the consolidation phase The 200-period moving average on higher timeframes remains in uptrend supporting long-term bullish bias A sustained move above the 20 and 50 MAs would confirm bullish momentum A breakdown below both MAs would signal bearish continuation RSI Analysis RSI on the 45-minute timeframe is currently neutral oscillating between 45-55 No overbought or oversold conditions present RSI is forming a similar compression pattern to price suggesting energy building for directional move Watch for RSI to break above 60 for bullish confirmation or below 40 for bearish confirmation Volume Analysis Volume has been declining during the triangle formation typical behavior before breakout Expect volume surge on the breakout candle to confirm validity Low volume breakouts often result in false moves and should be treated with caution Watch for volume at least 150 percent of average on breakout candle Fibonacci Analysis Measuring from the December low near 4200 USD to the December high near 4390 USD: 0.236 retracement: 4345 USD - Currently testing this level 0.382 retracement: 4317 USD - Aligns with triangle support 0.5 retracement: 4295 USD - Key level if support breaks 0.618 retracement: 4273 USD - Strong support zone Current price action around 4338 USD is testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level, a relatively shallow retracement suggesting buyers remain interested. CFTC Commitments of Traders Analysis - December 19, 2025 The latest COT report released December 19, 2025 provides critical insight into market positioning: Gold Futures Only Positions as of December 9, 2025: Open Interest: 432,569 contracts Non-Commercial Long: 268,485 contracts ( 62.1 percent of open interest) Non-Commercial Short: 44,599 contracts (10.3 percent of open interest) Commercial Long: 63,707 contracts (14.7 percent) Commercial Short: 326,286 contracts ( 75.4 percent ) Changes from December 2, 2025: Open Interest increased by 14,079 contracts Non-Commercial Longs added 7,154 contracts Non-Commercial Shorts added only 828 contracts Commercial Shorts added 10,791 contracts COT Interpretation: The positioning data reveals several important dynamics: Speculators (Non-Commercial) are heavily net long with 62.1 percent long versus only 10.3 percent short This represents a 6:1 long to short ratio among speculators - extreme bullish positioning Commercial hedgers (producers and merchants) are heavily short at 75.4 percent, which is normal hedging behavior in a bull market Open interest is increasing alongside price, confirming the uptrend has participation The continued addition of speculative longs suggests momentum traders remain committed to the bull case Warning Signal: Extreme speculative long positioning can precede corrections when longs begin to take profits. However, in strong trending markets, positioning can remain extreme for extended periods. The key is watching for a shift in the weekly changes - if longs start liquidating while price stalls, that would be a bearish signal. Physical Demand Analysis - Asia Market Weakness Reuters reported on December 19, 2025 that physical gold demand in Asia has weakened significantly due to record high prices: India Market: Dealers offering discounts of up to 37 USD per ounce to official domestic prices, up from 34 USD last week Domestic gold prices hit fresh record of 135,590 rupees per 10 grams Demand is roughly one quarter of normal levels according to PN Gadgil and Sons CEO Wedding season jewelry purchases dampened despite being peak demand period Demand expected to remain subdued as prices continue rising China Market: Bullion trading at discounts of up to 64 USD to global benchmark - highest in over five years This is the widest discount since August 2020 during COVID-19 pandemic Wholesale and retail demand described as incredibly weak by analyst Ross Norman However, ETF buying and PBOC purchases continue despite weak physical demand Other Asian Markets: Singapore: Trading from 0.5 USD discount to 2.2 USD premium Hong Kong: Trading from par to 1.8 USD premium Japan: Discounts up to 6.0 USD, though retail shops out of gold bar stocks Physical Demand Interpretation: The divergence between weak physical demand and strong prices is significant: Traditional price-sensitive buyers in India and China are stepping back at these levels However, institutional demand (ETFs, central banks) is offsetting physical weakness PBOC continues accumulating gold as part of reserve diversification strategy This suggests the rally is being driven by institutional and speculative flows rather than traditional jewelry demand A correction could occur if institutional buying slows, as physical demand is unlikely to provide support at current prices Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve Policy Impact The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting delivered several key takeaways affecting gold: Interest rates held steady as expected but forward guidance was more hawkish than anticipated Dot plot projections showed median expectation of only two rate cuts in 2026 Fed Chair emphasized data dependency and willingness to maintain restrictive policy longer if needed Inflation concerns remain despite progress with services inflation proving sticky Labor market remains resilient reducing urgency for rate cuts Implications for Gold: Higher-for-longer interest rates are traditionally bearish for gold as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, gold has shown remarkable resilience to rate expectations in 2024-2025, suggesting other factors are driving demand. US Dollar Dynamics The US Dollar Index strengthened following the hawkish Fed reaching multi-week highs Dollar strength typically pressures gold prices due to inverse correlation However the correlation has weakened in recent months as both assets attract safe-haven flows Watch DXY price action for confirmation of gold direction A reversal in dollar strength would provide tailwind for gold Central Bank Demand Central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor despite weak retail demand: Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for consecutive years PBOC (People's Bank of China) continues accumulating gold alongside Chinese ETF buying according to analyst Ross Norman India central bank has increased gold reserves significantly Emerging market central banks continue accumulating gold as reserve diversification from USD This institutional and central bank demand is offsetting weak physical retail demand in Asia Central bank buying provides structural floor under prices even when retail demand weakens Geopolitical Factors Safe-haven demand remains elevated due to: Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight Middle East tensions remain elevated with ongoing regional instability US-China relations remain strained with trade and technology disputes Global election cycle creating policy uncertainty Debt ceiling and fiscal concerns in major economies These factors support gold safe-haven bid and help explain its resilience despite hawkish Fed policy. Directional Bias Assessment Arguments for Bullish Breakout: Gold has hit 51 record highs in 2025 - momentum clearly favors bulls Best annual performance since 1979 with 66 percent YTD gains Long-term uptrend remains intact on daily and weekly timeframes COT data shows speculators adding to long positions with 62.1 percent long exposure Central bank and ETF demand continues despite weak physical demand PBOC accumulation ongoing according to analyst reports Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven bid Technical measured move target of 4480-4500 USD if triangle breaks higher Arguments for Bearish Breakdown: Extreme speculative long positioning (6:1 ratio) creates correction risk Physical demand in India at one quarter of normal levels China discounts at 64 USD - widest since August 2020 Hawkish Fed policy supporting stronger dollar and higher yields Price has risen 66 percent in one year - mean reversion risk elevated Holiday liquidity reduction could exacerbate any profit-taking Technical measured move target of 4200-4220 USD if triangle breaks lower My Assessment - Cautiously Bullish with Correction Risk: The weight of evidence supports the bull case given the historic momentum and institutional demand. However, several warning signs warrant caution: Extreme speculative positioning creates vulnerability to profit-taking Physical demand weakness in Asia suggests price-sensitive buyers are exhausted The rally is increasingly dependent on institutional flows rather than broad-based demand Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): Neutral to slightly bearish. The combination of extreme positioning, weak physical demand, and holiday liquidity conditions creates correction risk. A pullback to 4280-4320 USD would be healthy and provide better entry for longs. Long-term (1-3 months): Bullish. The structural drivers (central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy expectations) remain intact. Any correction should be viewed as buying opportunity. Targets of 4500-4600 USD remain valid for Q1 2026. Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively above 4360 USD upper trendline Volume on breakout candle exceeds 150 percent of 20-period average RSI breaks above 60 confirming momentum Ideally accompanied by dollar weakness DXY declining Trade Parameters: Entry: 4365-4370 USD on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 4330 USD below triangle midpoint Target 1: 4400-4410 USD previous resistance Target 2: 4450-4460 USD November highs Target 3: 4500-4520 USD measured move target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 to first target Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively below 4300 USD lower trendline Volume on breakdown candle exceeds 150 percent of 20-period average RSI breaks below 40 confirming bearish momentum Ideally accompanied by dollar strength DXY rising Trade Parameters: Entry: 4295-4300 USD on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 4340 USD above triangle midpoint Target 1: 4250-4260 USD horizontal support Target 2: 4200-4220 USD major support Target 3: 4150-4175 USD measured move target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2 to first target Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing should not exceed 1-2 percent risk per trade given current volatility Reduce position size during holiday period due to lower liquidity Use hard stop losses do not move stops further from entry Scale out of positions at each target level 33 percent at each target Move stop to breakeven after first target achieved Avoid holding large positions over weekend given geopolitical risks Monitor DXY and Treasury yields for confirmation of gold direction Be prepared for false breakouts wait for candle close confirmation Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 4250 USD on daily timeframe Triangle breaks down with volume confirmation DXY breaks to new highs above 110 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 4410 USD on daily timeframe Triangle breaks up with volume confirmation DXY reverses sharply below 106 Conclusion OANDA:XAUUSD has delivered a historic performance in 2025 with 51 record highs and 66 percent gains - the best year since 1979. The precious metal is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle near 4338 USD, setting up for the next directional move. Key Data Points: 51 record highs in 2025 according to Dow Jones Market Data 66 percent YTD gains - best since 1979 COT shows 62.1 percent speculative long positioning (6:1 long/short ratio) India physical demand at 25 percent of normal levels China discounts at 64 USD - widest since August 2020 PBOC and ETF buying continues despite weak retail demand Key Takeaways: The symmetrical triangle is approaching its apex suggesting a breakout is imminent within the next 24-72 hours Historic momentum (51 records) supports bullish bias but extreme positioning creates correction risk Physical demand weakness in Asia is a warning sign that price-sensitive buyers are exhausted Institutional demand (central banks, ETFs) is currently offsetting retail weakness Short-term bias is neutral with correction risk; long-term bias remains bullish Bullish breakout targets 4450-4500 USD; bearish breakdown targets 4250-4280 USD Risk management is critical given extreme positioning and holiday liquidity conditions The optimal approach is to wait for confirmed breakout with volume rather than anticipating direction. Given the extreme speculative positioning, any breakdown could trigger rapid profit-taking. Conversely, a breakout to new highs could accelerate as shorts cover. Trade the breakout, not the anticipation. Let price confirm direction before committing capital. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.

by officialjackofalltrades

Don’t Rush to Call the Top on EURUSD EURUSD in the late December 20–21 period is showing a clearly bullish picture , supported by both fundamental news and technical structure . This is not a euphoric phase , but rather a period where the market slows down to accumulate before making its next move. From a fundamental perspective, the ECB has kept interest rates unchanged and delivered a relatively positive outlook, while the USD lacks fresh momentum as U.S. data has not been strong enough to push the Fed back into a hawkish stance. This backdrop allows the euro to maintain a short-term advantage. On the chart, price remains firmly above the 1.1680 support zone , and the Higher Low structure is still intact. The Ichimoku setup shows sideways movement above a thin cloud , a condition that often appears before a trend continuation rather than a reversal. As long as the current support holds , the preferred scenario remains EURUSD pushing higher toward 1.1750, with the potential to retest the upper resistance zone. When the trend has not broken , following the flow is far wiser than trying to predict a top.

Long

by Paradise_Noir

SOLUSD - December Distribution Structure Executive Summary COINBASE:SOLUSD has declined approximately 52 percent from its November 2024 all-time high of 264 USD to current levels around 126 USD. This analysis examines the technical structure, on-chain metrics, and fundamental catalysts to determine high-probability trade zones. The evidence suggests further downside toward the 100-115 USD accumulation zone before a sustainable recovery can begin. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview Solana is currently trading within a descending channel that formed after the November 2024 peak. The structure shows: Lower highs at 264, 220, 180, and 145 USD forming clear descending resistance Lower lows indicating sustained selling pressure Current price testing the 125-130 USD zone which previously acted as resistance in October 2024 Volume declining on bounces and increasing on selloffs - classic distribution signature Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Zones: 140-145 USD - Recent swing high rejection zone 160-165 USD - Previous support turned resistance 180-185 USD - Major structural resistance Support Zones: 115-120 USD - Minor support, likely to break 100-105 USD - Major support, November 2024 breakout origin 85-90 USD - Secondary support if macro deteriorates Moving Average Analysis Price is trading below the 20, 50, and 200 period moving averages on the daily timeframe The 20 MA has crossed below the 50 MA, confirming short-term bearish momentum The 200 MA is flattening and beginning to slope downward Moving averages are fanning out in bearish alignment RSI and Momentum Daily RSI is currently in the 35-40 range, approaching oversold but not yet at extreme levels RSI has been making lower highs alongside price, confirming the downtrend No bullish divergence present yet - divergence at the 100-115 zone would be a strong buy signal Weekly RSI has room to decline further before reaching oversold extremes seen at previous bottoms Volume Profile High volume node exists at the 100-115 USD zone from the November 2024 accumulation period Current price zone shows relatively low volume, suggesting lack of strong buyer interest Volume has been declining during recent bounce attempts - weak demand A volume spike at the 100-115 zone would confirm institutional accumulation Fibonacci Retracement Measuring from the September 2024 low of 120 USD to the November 2024 high of 264 USD: 0.382 retracement: 209 USD - Already broken 0.5 retracement: 192 USD - Already broken 0.618 retracement: 175 USD - Already broken 0.786 retracement: 151 USD - Already broken Full retracement: 120 USD - Currently testing The breakdown through the 0.786 level suggests the move is corrective in nature and a full retracement to the 100-120 USD origin zone is probable. On-Chain and Fundamental Analysis Network Activity Metrics Solana network statistics show mixed signals: Daily active addresses have declined from peak levels during the meme coin mania Transaction counts remain elevated compared to other Layer 1 networks Total Value Locked in Solana DeFi protocols has decreased from highs NFT trading volume on Solana marketplaces has cooled significantly Supply Distribution Large holder concentration remains high with significant whale wallet activity Exchange inflows have increased in recent weeks, indicating selling pressure Staking participation remains strong, reducing liquid supply FTX bankruptcy estate continues systematic liquidation of SOL holdings Macro Factors Affecting Solana Bearish Catalysts: Federal Reserve December 2025 meeting maintained hawkish stance with fewer rate cuts projected for 2026 Risk-off sentiment affecting high-beta assets disproportionately BITSTAMP:BTCUSD dominance rising, indicating capital rotation from altcoins to Bitcoin Regulatory uncertainty regarding Solana ETF approval timeline FTX estate selling pressure creating persistent supply overhang Meme coin speculation that drove the 2024 rally has cooled substantially Bullish Catalysts: Solana network upgrades improving transaction throughput and reliability Growing institutional interest in Solana ecosystem projects Potential Solana ETF approval could drive significant inflows Strong developer activity and ecosystem growth metrics Firedancer client development progressing, promising improved network performance Solana remains the preferred chain for new DeFi and consumer applications Competitive Positioning Solana maintains advantages over competing Layer 1 networks: Transaction costs remain significantly lower than BITSTAMP:ETHUSD mainnet Transaction speed and finality superior to most competitors Developer ecosystem continues expanding despite price decline Institutional partnerships and integrations increasing However, challenges persist: Network outages and congestion issues have damaged reputation Centralization concerns regarding validator distribution Competition from Ethereum Layer 2 solutions intensifying Regulatory classification uncertainty in United States Whale and Institutional Activity Recent on-chain data indicates: Large wallets have been net sellers over the past 30 days Exchange deposits from whale addresses have increased Institutional funds have reduced Solana allocation according to fund flow data However, accumulation signals are appearing at lower price levels The pattern suggests distribution at current levels with potential accumulation beginning at the 100-115 USD zone. Trade Framework Primary Scenario - Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability) The weight of evidence supports further downside before a sustainable bottom forms: Technical structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows Price below all major moving averages Macro environment unfavorable for risk assets On-chain metrics showing distribution No bullish divergence on momentum indicators yet Short Setup: Entry Zone: 130-140 USD on relief bounces Stop Loss: Above 148 USD Target 1: 115-118 USD Target 2: 105-108 USD Target 3: 95-100 USD Secondary Scenario - Accumulation at Support The 100-115 USD zone represents a high-conviction long opportunity if confirmation signals appear: This zone was the origin of the November 2024 rally High volume node from previous accumulation period Full Fibonacci retracement level Psychological round number support at 100 USD Long Setup: Entry Zone: 100-115 USD Stop Loss: Below 92 USD Target 1: 130-135 USD Target 2: 150-160 USD Target 3: 180-200 USD Confirmation Signals Required for Long Entry: Bullish RSI divergence on daily timeframe Volume spike on bullish candle at support Price reclaiming the 20 period moving average Higher low formation on 4-hour timeframe Decrease in exchange inflows from whale wallets Risk Management Position sizing should not exceed 2-3 percent of portfolio for short setups Long setups at the 100-115 zone warrant 3-5 percent allocation due to higher conviction Scale into positions using 3 tranches rather than single entry Move stop loss to breakeven after first target achieved Avoid trading the 120-130 USD range without clear directional confirmation Monitor BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price action as correlation remains high Invalidation Levels Bearish thesis invalidated if: Daily close above 150 USD with increasing volume Price reclaims 50 and 200 moving averages RSI breaks above 60 with momentum Bullish thesis invalidated if: Daily close below 92 USD Volume spike on breakdown below 100 USD Bitcoin breaks below 75000 USD triggering broader market selloff Timeline Expectations Short-term (1-4 weeks): Expect continued weakness toward 100-115 USD support zone Medium-term (1-3 months): Potential basing pattern formation if support holds Long-term (3-6 months): Recovery rally possible if macro conditions improve and Solana-specific catalysts materialize Conclusion COINBASE:SOLUSD is in a clear distribution phase following the November 2024 peak. The technical structure, on-chain metrics, and macro environment all point to further downside before a sustainable bottom forms. The 100-115 USD zone represents the highest probability accumulation area based on: Historical significance as the November 2024 breakout origin Fibonacci full retracement level High volume node from previous accumulation Psychological support at 100 USD round number The recommended approach is patience. Avoid buying at current levels where distribution is occurring. Wait for price to reach the 100-115 USD zone and confirm with bullish divergence and volume signals before establishing long positions. For traders seeking short exposure, relief bounces to the 130-140 USD zone offer favorable risk-reward entries with defined stops above 148 USD. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.

Short

by officialjackofalltrades

BTC Gold - BKC Charting Example Bare Knuckle Charting BKC is something I developed (And still developing) over the years. I will use this chart to give you a crash course in BKC. Here is the original post I made back in March to follow along. ) So, BKC, let's start with: 1. Always start with a plain chart. 2. 99.9% of the time, look for 3 waves plus a hook. 3. Count 4 points (2 top and 2 bottom) connecting with a line. Price can NEVER violate price. EVER! so it must be the highest or lowest points in that particular wave. 4. A structure will reveal itself pointing in a direction up, down sideways. -Sideways means continuation of the previous trend. -Up/Down structure means a reversal structure is coming. 5. Now you can clearly identify key areas of the structure. What I call "CRACK!" A break in momentum. 6. A CRACK can collapse or give you early warning signs. 7. Once a crack has revealed itself at key areas, don't be fooled by the subsequent price action. This is where most get F up. They don't see what you see. A CRACK & weak buying barely trying to hold the trendline that will ultimately CRACK again and more likely than not collapse with them holding a bag of schitt! Mesmerized with the overall trend and more specifically mesmerized by the most recent trend after the CRACK (they don't see) that moved in their favor. These people can't see past their noses. Completely unaware of what is actually happening. The best part is when they show you a chart, they just draw lines randomly violating price (CRACKS) and concluding that the chart is bullish or bearish, and telling you how it is. HAHAHAHA! SMH! 8. Because you can all see past your noses using BKC. This will help you in so many ways that you can't even imagine! Why? - You won't take random trades anywhere in the chart! You will wait for key areas to get involved. This alone will dramatically cut down on the # of needle trades you make, which at best are 50/50 happenstance results that you then give meaning to. Basically, gambling with the illusion of analysis. -Next, you completely remove the subjectivity and cute stories that produce the illusion of "analysis." THIS IS IMPORTANT! With BKC you extract information FROM the data. Not applying your vague hunches and feelings TO THE DATA! That's the difference between Real & Illusion of analysis. - Continuing on. With BKC, you have a much more holistic understanding of price and what investors' emotions are. It's all right there in the chart. People talking with their money. Not their mouth! - Once you see charts properly and understand what they are actually telling you, Waves - hooks - Structures - key Areas - Strengths -Weaknesses - CRACKS etc... you can't UNSEE IT! It's impossible! - Your actual trade or investment positioning and size drastically improve. You understand that a single CRACK may just be a warning, as such, you don't run out and bet the farm and have it blow up in your face! That alone will greatly improve win win-loss ratio and help prevent blown-out accounts or massive losses. You can't be a trader investor if you are losing your ars beyond the typical cost of doing business draw downs. That is just so basic! - Most importantly, you will finally STOP! this maddening going for 2, 3, 4% "targets"! Then on to the next big guess and keep repeating until you blow yourself out! I know I used to do it! Now with BKC you will go for mammoth moves 30, 50, 75, 100% plus moves! Bc you see the holistic view. Not the hiccups of random simple price movement, thinking you did something. - With BKC, Small losses are viewed as informational. Schitt didn't do what it was supposed to do. It went back into structure strongly, so I am out! Simple. Who cares? If I repeat this 10 times in the end, I will be profitable. Even if 9 weren't! WHAT? Yes! Because when you go for the big moves, that is actually possible as crazy as it sounds. But you will never experience that unless you actually learn how to do it. That's what BKC is for. You will never learn how to do it if you keep going for silly 2-3% piker moves! 100% GUARANTEED! You must stop wasting your time & fooling yourself with randomness and then trying to apply meaning to it. This is not by any means an inferential! You all share your stuff and approaches, scripts, bots, and mostly the same old tired candlesticks, moving averages, FIBS, and targets etc.. which is why you can all speak the same language and understand each other, but fail to produce real, meaningful results. BKC is a completely different approach as far as I know. It does not give you a fish, it teaches you HOW to fish! For BIG ONES! I will keep posting examples here as I have been, but now you should have a bit more clarity as to how and why I post what I post. Follow along and see the difference in real time. No hindsight crystal ball nonsensical bullschitt. As for this chart with a H&S at a top Look for a pop then a drop! Should this H&S break, it will be ugly for the Crypto Bros.! The proof is in the pudding! ;) THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.

Short

RNDR – Weekly Structure Price is currently trading at a major HTF support zone around $1.20–$1.30. This level previously acted as strong support and resistance, making it a key decision area. The recent downside wick has been partially filled (~50%), which often signals temporary demand, but structure is still bearish on the higher timeframe. Key levels to watch: Support: $1.20 – $1.30 Next downside risk: If this level fails → possible continuation lower Bias: As long as price holds above support → potential range / relief bounce Weekly close below support → bearish continuation scenario Patience is key here. Let price confirm direction before entering. Not financial advice. Always manage risk. MrC

by Mrctradinglab

BCH: $700–$800 Before the Next Bear Market BCH Macro Resistance Before Bear Market Based on historical price structure, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) appears to be approaching a macro resistance zone around $700–$800 , which has previously marked the final upside before major bear markets. In 2018 and 2022, BCH followed a very similar pattern: A prolonged accumulation phase A strong push into a horizontal resistance zone A rejection from that zone, followed by a deep bear market decline The current structure closely mirrors those past cycles. Price is once again testing the same historical supply zone, where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. Key idea: I expect BCH to reach the $700–$800 range This level could act as the last distribution zone before the broader market transitions into a new bear market phase This is not a short-term trade idea, but a macro perspective based on repeating market behavior and long-term resistance reactions. ⚠️ As always, confirmation is needed, and this scenario is invalidated i f price accepts and holds above the resistance zone.

Short

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Select market data provided by ICE Data Services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc.Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC fillings and other documents provided by Quartr.© 2026 TradingView, Inc.

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