MSFT WARNING!Here is a closer view of the chart I posted back on Oct 5, 2024, for a nice profitable -25% drawdown.
This time will be far more profitable.
Here is a breakdown of the chart.
- Up against a 38-year trendline.
- A rare 5-wave rising wedge.
- A H & S with a head test
- Big Ass Gap Below
- Double top M pattern that CRACKED!
- Rising Bearish Wedge.
This is just getting started!
Bulls, if you didn't make your money in MSFT yet and are trying to squeeze a little bit more profits bc you are too damn greedy. Then you deserve what you get next.
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Technical Analysis
$SPX: A worrying Intraday Turnaround!While everyone, even the taxi driver, was celebrating NVDA's positive earnings report, the SP:SPX suddenly reversed. After touching the 20-day simple moving average, it dropped sharply with no buyers stepping in. With a 3.5% swing between the intraday high and low, the SP:SPX closed slightly below the horizontal support level at 6,550 and the 100-day moving average.
It's unfortunate that the right shoulder is missing, as it would otherwise form a perfect head and shoulders pattern—though it might be more accurately described as the head of a one-armed head and shoulders. Jokes aside, the technical outlook for the SP:SPX has significantly deteriorated. The market's bullish sentiment has evaporated, making it more challenging to establish a bottom.
If the S&P 500 doesn’t recover and consolidate support around 6,550 by Friday—an extremely important level that also aligns with the 1:1 extension below—we could face an “Air Pocket” of approximately 175 points. Within this Air Pocket area, we have extensions at 1.382, 1.5, and 1.618. The 14-period RSI is approaching oversold conditions, but it's not quite there yet.
Gold (XAUUSD): Long Trade from Demand ZoneIdentified Trading Setup
The chart illustrates a potential long (buy) trade setup based on a specific strategy, likely related to Smart Money Concepts (SMC) or order flow analysis:
Support/Demand Zone: The entry is planned around the grey box zone, specifically at the CRT-L (Current Range Low) area, implying a belief that this is a strong level for a price reversal.
SSS (Sell-Side Liquidity): The label "SSS" points to a level around $4,030 which was recently broken, suggesting the initial selling pressure has subsided or that liquidity has been swept.
Projected Path: The black line with arrows indicates the expected price path—a significant reversal from the low zone, followed by an uptrend towards the target.
Target (Take Profit): The trade aims for the CRT-H (Current Range High) around $4,092.85. This level represents a strong area of previous supply or resistance that the price is projected to retest.
💡 Conclusion
The analysis suggests a contrarian trade anticipating a bounce off a key support/demand zone for a retracement back toward recent high-level resistance. The blue shaded box represents the potential profit area for this long setup.
NZDUSD: Bearish Trend Continues 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
The market finally completed a correctional movement yesterday,
forming a bearish imbalance candle and setting a new lower low
lower close with a confirmed BoS.
We can expect another wave lower.
Next support will be 0.56.
Look for selling after a completion of a pullback.
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XAUUSD: Short-Term Downtrend Active Below FVG/Supply ZoneKey Technical Points
Major Resistance (X): The swing high marked 'X' around $4,240 served as a strong ceiling, initiating the current downtrend.
Supply Zone (D / FVG): The shaded gray box, labeled 'D / FVG' (Demand/Fair Value Gap), is a critical supply area (resistance) located between approximately $4,100 and $4,140. The price has reacted negatively to this zone, confirming its importance as a selling region.
Bearish Channel: Since the rejection from the major high, the price has been contained within a clear descending channel, indicating sustained short-term bearish momentum.
Current Action: The price is trading near the mid-point of the channel, currently at $4,064.40. The market structure suggests a pattern of lower highs and lower lows is still active.
Outlook
The immediate outlook remains bearish as long as the price stays within the descending channel and below the D / FVG supply zone. The most probable next move is a continuation toward the lower boundary of the channel, potentially testing the $4,000 psychological support level.
AMD Is Approaching Support, While Finishing A CorrectionAMD is in a very strong uptrend, supported by the impressive rally since early October when it gapped higher on positive AI news. Since then, the stock has gained more than 50%, and this bullish momentum could continue after a retracement, especially considering latest company’s better-than-expected earnings report.
But based in latest price action, we assume that the market is now in a corrective pullback before resuming higher, ideally forming wave four within a broader five-wave sequence. The previous high around 220 could act as the first key support, followed by the 200 area, which also aligns with upper range of unfilled gap. So if we are correct, then later this month or early in December, the market can once again stabilize and turn up for a new high, while the price is above 187 invalidation level.
Highlights:
Trend: Strong uptrend, wave four correction in view
Support: 220 / 200 zone
Invalidation: Below 186
Note: Wait for a pullback to complete before considering new long opportunities
Ascending Broadening Wedge for NVIDIA Weekly ChartThe downtrend probably won't be happen in the near term, but the rebound alson have limited upside. But at least there are 2 possibilities ahead of the price.
I suspect Ascending Broadening Wedge is in process in weekly chart for Nvidia. The concern is the potensial downtrend pressure, especially if support trendline break.
I devide it on 2 scenario :
1. Rebound to 220/223 first. This mean no immediate breakout support anytime soon based on the count. The price will have to raise first with maximum target 220/223 before followed with rejection. But the raise don't have to be exactly 220/223. It can also retest the previous high (3) before rejected and fall.
2. No rebound, support 177/178 immediately broken, the downtren continues to the target area.
There area possibilities to go up first if Santa Claus Rally succeed to push the price above or near resistance, then after the seasonal trade for Santa Claus or January effect will face the profit taking and underpressure through the supportline.
After the pressure, we probably will see some demand on blue area to push the price back on the uptrend..that ofcourse..if no "AI-buble" coming in coming months
DISCLAIMER
Do with your own risk!
This is not suggestion! This is my personal view on the opportunities that could happen to Nvidia.
GBPUSD: Breakout & Important Supply Zone 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD broke and closed below a key horizontal support.
The broken structure and a falling trend line compose a significant
supply zone now.
I will look for selling from there, expecting a bearish movement
to 1.3024 support.
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GBPCAD: Bullish More From Support Confirmed 🇬🇧🇨🇦
GBPCAD may pull back from a key daily support.
An inverted head and shoulders pattern on that on an hourly time frame
provides a strong bullish confirmation.
Goal - 1.8384
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$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Dual labor signals hit premarket: The delayed September employment report and weekly jobless claims land at the same time — a rare setup that can jolt both yields and equities.
🛒 Housing + recession gauges follow shortly after, giving traders a full macro pulse before midday.
⚠️ Reminder: Some October data (leading indicators) may still be affected by shutdown delays.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Employment Report (Delayed Sept)
• Payrolls: 50,000
• Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
• Wages: 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y
Treat this like a fresh NFP — major market mover.
⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)
Actual: 227,000
Weekly update on cooling/tightening labor conditions.
⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov)
Actual: 1.5 vs –12.8 prior
Important for gauging demand softness vs stabilization.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct)
Actual: 4.10M vs 4.06M forecast
Clean read on rate-sensitive housing momentum.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Leading Economic Indicators (Oct)
Actual: –0.3%
⚠️ May still be subject to shutdown-related reporting delays.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #housing #labor #markets #PMI #investing #stocks
Hero Motocorp: Major Weekly Breakout | Auto Sector Leader
STRONG BUY Setup 🏍️
Entry: ₹5,798-5,820 (Current Level)
Target 1: ₹5,899-5,920
Target 2: ₹6,033-6,060
Target 3: ₹6,251-6,280
Target 4: ₹6,400-6,500+ (Extended Breakout Target)
Stop Loss: ₹5,588
Technical Rationale:
BREAKING OUT from year-long rectangle consolidation (5,588-5,899 range - blue shaded area)
Powerful +4.69% weekly surge showing strong bullish momentum
Testing upper boundary of rectangle at 5,899 (marked "3d 21h" - breakout imminent)
Weekly chart showing major pattern completion
Trading above descending channel (black trendlines) - channel broken
Volume at 1.77M - strong for weekly timeframe confirming breakout
RSI trending upward around 70-75 - strong momentum (overbought but in uptrend)
Trading well above rising EMA - bullish trend confirmed
Auto sector leader - largest two-wheeler manufacturer globally
Multiple resistance levels clearly marked: 5,899, 6,033, 6,251
Strong support established at 5,588 (rectangle base)
Previous consolidation for 12+ months = powerful breakout potential
Pattern similar to 2024 rally from 3,500 to 6,000+
Risk-Reward: Excellent 1:3 to 1:5+ ratio depending on targets
Pattern: RECTANGLE CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUT on WEEKLY Chart - extremely powerful continuation pattern after year-long base building
Strategy: Medium to long-term positional (weeks to months)
Book 20% at T1 (5,910), 20% at T2 (6,045), 20% at T3 (6,260)
Hold remaining 40% for extended target 6,400-6,500+
Trail SL to 5,820 after crossing T1
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not SEBI registered.
Axis Bank: Falling Wedge Pattern | Wait for Breakout Above 1,26Entry: ₹1,241-1,250 (Current Level)
Target 1: ₹1,259-1,265
Target 2: ₹1,275-1,285 (Breakout Confirmation)
Target 3: ₹1,300-1,320+ (Extended if breaks channel)
Stop Loss: ₹1,222
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not SEBI registered.
Buyers Are Back: Is Gold Ready to Break Higher?Gold is entering a promising recovery phase as macro signals are finally shifting in favor of the bulls. After three consecutive losing sessions, the market received a meaningful boost from weaker-than-expected U.S. labor data — opening up a much clearer upside opportunity for XAUUSD.
The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits has climbed to a two-month high , with continued claims rising to 1.9 million in the week ending October 18. These figures are fueling expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates in December 2025, weakening the USD and lending strong support to the precious metal.
On the 2H chart, price is rebounding from the 4,060 support area and showing a clear return of buying momentum . XAUUSD will likely continue consolidating within the highlighted zone before targeting the 4,150 level. The rounded bottom formation underneath is also reinforcing the bullish scenario .
Overall, the most reasonable strategy is to favor buying on pullbacks toward 4,080–4,100, aiming for 4,150. A break below 4,060 would invalidate the short-term bullish outlook .
To $150k zone?After a deep corrective retracement, Bitcoin has now filled the major imbalances and cleared significant liquidity, liquidating millions in the process. With the downside inefficiencies resolved, BTC is showing early signs of a structural reversal. My expectation is a continuation toward the $150K zone for the next major target.
GBP/USD Heading Towards Support Breakdown?Hello everyone, today we will analyze the GBP/USD pair in the context of the current market situation.
Regarding the news, the GBP is under significant pressure as data from the UK shows the unemployment rate has risen to 5% , raising concerns among investors about the economic situation and the possibility that the Bank of England (BoE) may have to cut interest rates in the near future. Additionally, the USD is strengthening, driven by the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, putting further downward pressure on GBP/USD.
Technically, the chart shows that GBP/USD is trading in an ascending channel . However, the price has failed to break through the important resistance level at 1.31800 in the most recent attempt. This suggests that buying pressure is weakening, and if this level cannot be breached, the downtrend may continue.
The strong support level currently lies at 1.31300. If the price breaks below this level, the pair could drop further, heading towards the next support zone at 1.31000. These are crucial levels that traders should watch in the coming hours.
In conclusion, with the current news and technical analysis, it is highly likely that GBP/USD will continue its downward trend in the next 24 hours, unless there are significant changes in policy or data from the BoE or Fed . Make sure to monitor the key support and resistance levels to make informed trading decisions. Good luck with your trades!
GRM Overseas: Breaking 480 After 2 Years | Agri-Export LeaderSTRONG BUY Setup 🌾Entry: ₹494-500 (Current Level)
Target 1: ₹509-515
Target 2: ₹519-525
Target 3: ₹528-540
Target 4: ₹560-580+ (Extended Breakout Target)
Stop Loss: ₹480Technical Rationale:
EXPLOSIVE BREAKOUT from multi-year resistance at 480 (blue horizontal line at top)
Massive +2.83% surge on weekly chart with strong momentum
Breaking above 2-year consolidation/resistance zone (highlighted "1d 19h" in green)
Volume at 3.23M - strong for weekly timeframe confirming breakout
Weekly chart showing major pattern completion
Trading well above rising EMA (blue curve) - strong bullish trend
RSI trending upward around 70-75 - strong momentum
Basmati rice exporter - agri-commodity play with export potential
Multiple resistance levels clearly marked: 509, 519, 528
Clear support established at breakout zone 480
Strong recovery from 2023-2024 lows (~160) to current levels
Pattern shows consistent higher highs and higher lows since mid-2024
Breaking into new all-time high territory
Risk-Reward: Excellent 1:4 to 1:6+ ratio for extended targetsPattern: MULTI-YEAR HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE BREAKOUT on WEEKLY Chart - extremely powerful setup after 2+ years of consolidationStrategy: Medium to long-term positional/investment (weeks to months)
Book 20% at T1 (512), 20% at T2 (522), 20% at T3 (534)
Hold remaining 40% for extended target 560-580+
Trail SL to 500 after crossing T1
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not SEBI registered.
Gold Consolidates Within Symmetrical Triangle as Bulls Defend 4KGold (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a well-defined consolidation pattern following its strong rally earlier in the quarter. The metal is currently forming a symmetrical triangle, bounded by rising support near 4,000 and descending resistance around 4,250. This setup reflects a period of equilibrium between buyers and sellers as momentum stabilizes after recent highs.
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 3,965 remains an important dynamic support, while the 200-day SMA far below at 3,427 indicates the broader uptrend remains intact. Price recently rebounded from the triangle’s lower boundary and the 50-day SMA, suggesting that short-term buyers are still active within the structure.
Momentum readings are neutral to mildly constructive. The MACD lines are flattening after a bearish crossover, signaling reduced downside momentum, while the RSI hovers near 56, consistent with balanced but improving sentiment.
As long as gold remains above the 4,000 region, focus stays on a potential breakout from this converging pattern — with direction likely dictated by whether bulls can overcome the upper trendline resistance or if sellers regain control near that zone.
-MW
US Dollar Index Tests Key Resistance Near 100 as Momentum BuildsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hover near the psychological 100.00 level after recovering from its October lows. Price is currently consolidating just below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which aligns closely with horizontal resistance around 100.30 — a level that has capped rallies several times this year.
The 50-day SMA (near 98.65) has begun to slope upward, suggesting short-term momentum remains constructive, though the broader trend still leans cautious below the 200-day SMA.
Momentum indicators are showing gradual improvement. The MACD histogram is slightly positive, hinting at renewed bullish pressure, while the RSI holds above 60, reflecting strengthening momentum without yet entering overbought territory.
A decisive close above 100.30 could signal a potential shift in medium-term sentiment, whereas rejection from this zone would reinforce the prevailing range between 96.40 and 100.30.
Overall, the index shows cautious bullish momentum approaching a major technical test.
-MW
AUDJPY: Rise Continues 🇦🇺🇯🇵
AUDJPY will likely continue rising after a confirmed
bullish change of character and a formation of a bullish imbalance on a 4h time frame.
Expect a growth at least to 101.8
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Reversal Signal: Is EURUSD Ready to Break Higher?EURUSD is beginning to show a notable recovery after several days of correction. What stands out is that both the news flow and price action are now aligning with a bullish outlook — a strong indication that buyers are regaining control in the short term.
On the news side, the USD weakened after Fed Governor Waller warned about risks to the labor market and suggested an additional 0.25% rate cut at the upcoming December 9–10 meeting. This softer Fed stance typically pressures the USD, creating a supportive environment for EURUSD to rise.
At the same time, the Euro has improved as political risks in France eased. EURUSD bounced back to 1.1593, ending a three-day losing streak — a clear sign that selling pressure is fading.
On the chart, price reacted strongly at the 1.1550 support zone and continues forming higher lows, showing that buying interest is quietly strengthening. If this short-term support holds, EURUSD may head toward 1.1600 and potentially the major resistance at 1.1650.
In summary, with both fundamentals and technicals leaning bullish, the upward trend remains the favored scenario . A sensible approach is to wait for a retest of 1.1550–1.1580 before considering the next long entry.
Bitcoin Warning Signals After October TopBitcoin is breaking back below the $100k level and the channel support drawn from the 2022 lows. This price action suggests that we may be completing the bull cycle that began from those lows—one that lasted roughly three years, similar to previous bullish phases from January 2015 to December 2017 and December 2018 to November 2021.
Given this context, there is now a meaningful risk of a deeper correction. Historically, each new cycle tends to produce shallower percentage pullbacks, but the correction phase is still an important part of the broader market structure. For those looking to position themselves for the next major bull run, it would be safer to wait for the market to undergo a sustained corrective period, potentially lasting around a year, before re-entering with the broader trend.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin may have completed a five-wave impulse within a higher-degree wave (V) of III, aligning with the idea that a higher-degree wave IV correction could now be unfolding. Additionally, from a cyclical standpoint, the market appears to have topped in October 2025, which further supports the probability of entering a bear-market phase.
In summary, Bitcoin may now be transitioning from a multi-year advance into a structurally significant corrective period—one that could provide a healthier foundation for the next major expansionary cycle.
GBPUSD Correction Could Trigger Fresh Longs at 1.31200Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 1.31200 zone.
The pair remains in a clear uptrend, and price is currently in a corrective phase, retracing back toward the 1.31200 support–resistance confluence aligned with the ascending structure.
This level has acted as a key reaction zone in previous swings, and a bullish response here could open the door for continuation toward recent highs.
Trade safe,
Joe.






















