$BTC — WEEK 49 TREND REPORTBTC — WEEK 49 TREND REPORT
Ticker: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD — 12/02/2025 @ 90,800
Timeframe: WEEKLY
This is a reactive structural classification of BTCUSD based on the weekly chart as of this timestamp. Price conditions are evaluated as they stand — nothing here is predictive or forward-assumptive.
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1) Current Trend Condition
• Trend Duration: +9 weeks (bearish)
• Trend Reversal Level (Bullish): 103404.5$
• Trend Reversal Level (Bullish)( Confirmation ): 103405$
• Pullback Support: 100,074$
• Correction Support: 79,507$
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2) Structure Health
• Retracement Phase:
Correction (approaching 61.8%)
• Position Status:
Unstable (price below both structural layers)
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3) Temperature:
• Cooling Phase
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4) Momentum :
• Bearish
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Author’s Note
This analysis is fully reactive, not predictive. Market conditions, trend structure, and behavior are classified as they appear in real time. The objective is to identify where directional shifts first occurred, where structural integrity remains intact, and where it would begin to weaken if key levels were breached.
Predictive analysis projects outcomes that do not exist yet. Without price confirmation, prediction is built on baseless assumptions. This framework avoids that entirely by responding only to verified structural changes and live conditions.
The levels shown simply identify where the current trend structure first shifted and where it would begin to lose integrity if breached. Recognizing these boundaries allows for clearer interpretation of market behavior without relying on forward guarantees, speculative projections, or unsupported assumptions.
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Methodology Overview
This classification framework evaluates directional conditions using internal trend-interpretation logic that references price behavior relative to its structural layers. These relationships are used to identify when price movement aligns with the framework’s criteria for directional phases, transition points, or regime shifts. Visual elements or structural labels reflect these internal interpretations, rather than explicit trading signals or preset indicator crossovers. This framework is observational only and does not imply future outcomes.
Technical Analysis
$NVDA — WEEK 49 TREND REPORT (COILING?)NASDAQ:NVDA — WEEK 49 TREND REPORT
Ticker: NASDAQ:NVDA — 12/02/2025 @ 185$
Timeframe: WEEKLY
This is a reactive structural classification of NVDA based on the weekly chart as of this timestamp. Price conditions are evaluated as they stand — nothing here is predictive or forward-assumptive.
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1) Current Trend Condition
• Trend Duration: +5 weeks (bearish)
• Trend Reversal Level (Bullish): 190.87$
• Trend Reversal Level (Bearish): 176.52$
• Pullback/Correction/Structure Support: 167.75$
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2) Structure Health
• Retracement Phase:
• Pullback (approaching 78.6%)
• Position Status:
• Caution (interacting with structural layers)
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3) Temperature: Cooling Phase
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4) Momentum: Coiling
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5) Market Sentiment: Neutral
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Author’s Note
This analysis is fully reactive, not predictive. Market conditions, trend structure, and behavior are classified as they appear in real time. The objective is to identify where directional shifts first occurred, where structural integrity remains intact, and where it would begin to weaken if key levels were breached.
Predictive analysis projects outcomes that do not exist yet. Without price confirmation, prediction is built on baseless assumptions. This framework avoids that entirely by responding only to verified structural changes and live conditions.
The levels shown simply identify where the current trend structure first shifted and where it would begin to lose integrity if breached. Recognizing these boundaries allows for clearer interpretation of market behavior without relying on forward guarantees, speculative projections, or unsupported assumptions.
⸻
Methodology Overview
This classification framework evaluates directional conditions using internal trend-interpretation logic that references price behavior relative to its structural layers. These relationships are used to identify when price movement aligns with the framework’s criteria for directional phases, transition points, or regime shifts. Visual elements or structural labels reflect these internal interpretations, rather than explicit trading signals or preset indicator crossovers. This framework is observational only and does not imply future outcomes.
$BTC.D ANALYSISBTC dominance on the 1-day chart is showing a short-term recovery after finding strong support near the 58.5 %–58.6 % zone, which has acted as a demand area multiple times. After a clean rebound from this region, dominance has moved back above the lower boundary of the green zone with increasing volume, indicating buyers stepping in. However, it is now approaching the 59.8 %–60 % resistance, and the Ichimoku cloud above suggests that upside momentum may face some struggle before a clear breakout.
The overall trend remains neutral-to-bullish in the short term as long as price holds above 59 %. A breakout and daily close above 60.2 %–60.5 % would confirm renewed BTC strength over altcoins, likely causing altcoin weakness. Conversely, rejection from this resistance could lead to another pullback toward 58.8 %–58.5 % support. The next few daily candles will decide whether dominance continues its climb toward 61 % or consolidates in this range.
EURNZD: Bullish After the News 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern
on a key daily support cluster.
We see a bullish breakout of its neckline and a strong bullish momentim
after EU inflation data today.
Odds are high that the pair will rise at least to 2.0335 level.
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TONUSDT - Short Setup - Targeting Unmitigated Demand 📉 TON/USDT 4H: Anticipating Continuation Short Towards Unmitigated Demand
📝 Market Overview and Structural Context
The TON/USDT pair on the 4-hour chart is exhibiting a clear bearish structural shift. After a period of an attempt at a reversal (the recent small rally), the price has decisively broken below the most recent swing low, confirming that sellers are firmly in control.
The price is currently consolidating just below a key structural point and is expected to continue its descent toward a significant Demand Zone that was the origin of a previous move higher. The overall hypothesis is a short continuation trade, targeting this fresh demand zone.
🔑 Key Technical Zones and Order Flow
The analysis highlights the key structural break and the ultimate target zone:
1. Structural Break and Retest
Level: The swing low around 1.550 was recently breached.
Current Action: Price is now consolidating around the 1.480 - 1.500 area. The arrows on the chart suggest the expectation of a brief retest of the broken support level (around 1.460) before the bearish momentum continues.
2. Target and Volume Burst Zone (Demand) 🟢/🔵
Zone Location: This is the combined target area, spanning approximately 1.360 to 1.400.
Significance: This area is a high-quality Demand Zone, identified as the "Volume Burst" zone. This area was the origin of the last significant bullish momentum (likely a Drop-Base-Rally structure) that launched the previous swing high. It represents the first major unmitigated area where institutional buy orders are expected to be located.
The blue box, labeled "Target" (around 1.380 - 1.400), is the most immediate technical objective for the current short trade.
The lower green box, "Volume Burst" (around 1.360 - 1.380), marks the distal boundary of the demand zone, providing the ideal area for the final take-profit and potential reversal.
3. Order Flow Level (OFL)
Location: The price level around 1.560.
Significance: This marks the origin of the last structural high before the move down. The structural breakdown confirms the selling pressure from this point.
📊 Trading Hypothesis: Short Continuation
The trade plan anticipates a short continuation after a minor retest:
Trade Direction: Short (Sell)
Entry Strategy: The chart suggests waiting for a minor rally back toward the broken support level (around 1.460) to capture a more favorable entry price, minimizing risk. The short trade is initiated upon the rejection of this broken level.
Stop Loss (S/L): The Stop Loss should be placed safely above the recent swing high that failed to break the prior structure (e.g., above 1.560 or the most recent significant high).
Take Profit (T/P) 1: The Target (blue box) around 1.380 - 1.400.
Take Profit (T/P) 2: The distal boundary of the Volume Burst zone around 1.360, which represents the maximum expected extension of the current move before a significant bounce occurs.
⚠️ Risk Management and Invalidation
The risk lies in price reversing prematurely before reaching the target or failing to reject the retest level.
Invalidation: A decisive move and close above the OFL level (1.560) would indicate renewed bullish momentum and invalidate the bearish structural thesis.
NZDUSD: Retracement Continues 🇳🇿🇺🇸
There is a high probability that NZDUSD will retrace more
from the underlined key daily resistance.
A double top pattern on a 4H and a formation of a bearish
imbalance candle with London session opening provide
strong confirmations.
Goal for sellers - 0.5709
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CHF/USD 4H: High-Probability Reversal Play at Unmitigated Demand🚀 CHF/USD 4H: High-Probability Reversal Play at Unmitigated Demand Zone
📝 Market Overview and Structural Context
The CHF/USD pair has recently experienced a significant downward correction from a prior high (marked by the long vertical line). This bearish move effectively tested and breached minor support levels, indicating a strong influx of sellers in the short term.
The current price action is situated near a major unmitigated Demand Zone—the area responsible for initiating the last aggressive buying rally. The trading hypothesis focuses on the expectation that institutional buyers will defend this critical base, leading to a strong bullish reversal.
🔑 Key Technical Zones and Order Flow
The analysis highlights two main zones that form the basis of the long hypothesis:
1. Reversal Zone (Demand Entry) 🟢
Zone Location: The upper green shaded box, spanning approximately 1.23300 to 1.23500.
Significance: This is identified as the high-probability Demand Zone. It represents the area where price stalled and reversed aggressively, establishing the structure that led to the prior swing high (the Order Flow Origin). This zone contains a concentration of unexecuted buy orders, making it the ideal location for a bullish reversal to begin.
2. Volume Burst (Liquidity Sweep) 🟢
Zone Location: The lower green shaded box, extending down to approximately 1.23100.
Significance: This zone often acts as a Stop-Loss/Liquidity Pool. While the main entry is the "Reversal Zone," the "Volume Burst" area accounts for a potential liquidity sweep—a maneuver where price briefly dips below the main demand area to trigger stop losses before launching the intended move. Traders often place their absolute Stop Loss below this entire structure.
3. Order Flow (OF) / Target Origin
Location: The level where the strong initial impulse move started before the reversal.
Significance: This marks the last major structural high before the drop. A successful reversal from the Demand Zone would target this level (around 1.24800 to 1.25000) as the initial Take Profit area, confirming a shift back to bullish momentum.
📊 Trading Hypothesis: Buying the Demand
The trade plan is contingent on confirming demand in the entry zone:
Trade Direction: Long (Buy)
Entry Strategy : Entry is anticipated upon price entering the Reversal Zone (1.23300-1.23500). Traders should wait for a bullish confirmation pattern (e.g., a bullish engulfing candle or a clear rejection wick) on a lower timeframe (e.g., 1H or 30M) to validate the entry and refine the risk-to-reward ratio.
Stop Loss (S/L): The Stop Loss must be placed securely below the entire demand structure, safely below the Volume Burst zone (e.g., below 1.23000).
Take Profit (T/P) 1: The Order Flow (OF) / Target Origin area around 1.24800 to 1.25000.
Take Profit (T/P) 2 : Potential continuation to retest the recent swing high around 1.26800.
⚠️ Risk Management and Invalidation
The depth and aggressive nature of the preceding drop demand caution. The primary risk is that the current bearish pressure is strong enough to break the historical demand zone.
Invalidation: A decisive close below the Volume Burst area (e.g., below 1.23000) would completely invalidate this bullish setup, signaling a deeper structural break and the likely continuation of the bearish trend.
DOGE/USDT: Structural Breakdown & Retest of S/R Flip To Target📉 DOGE/USDT 4H: Structural Breakdown and Retest of S/R Flip for Continuation Short
📝 Market Overview and Trend Context
The DOGE/USDT pair, as observed on the 4-hour chart, has undergone a significant structural breakdown following an extended period of consolidation (a potential triangle or pennant pattern). The initial support zone, which held price during the consolidation, was decisively broken around the 0.18000 level.
The current price action is characterized by a bearish trend, with the most recent move being a retest of the broken support level, which has now flipped to become a critical Resistance Zone (S/R Flip). The overall expectation is for a continuation of the bearish trend towards much lower structural lows.
🔑 Key Technical Zones and Structural Elements
The analysis focuses on the structural change and the re-entry point for selling:
1. S/R Flip Zone (The Supply Entry) 🔴
Zone Location: The green shaded area, spanning roughly 0.18000 to 0.18500.
Significance: This zone was the last significant area of support before the decisive breakdown. After the break, price rallied back up to this zone in a retesting maneuver. This confirms the S/R Flip, where former support becomes new, strong resistance (a high-quality Supply Zone).
Trading Thesis: This is the high-probability area where institutional sell orders are expected to enter the market, initiating the next leg down of the bearish trend.
2. False Move Failure Retest (FMFR)
Marking: An area labeled FMFR (False Move Failure Retest) appears near the retesting area. This highlights a specific pattern often used in Smart Money Concepts (SMC) where the initial move into a zone is often complex or fails before the true move begins, adding confluence to the resistance/supply thesis.
3. Target Zone (Accumulation Zone) 🔵
Zone Location: The blue shaded box, spanning approximately 0.08800 to 0.09100.
Significance: This is the primary long-term Target for the short trade. It represents the next major structural low or a historical area of strong accumulation/demand, which is likely to attract the price once the supply pressure is confirmed.
📊 Trading Hypothesis: Shorting the Retest
The trade plan is contingent on confirming the bearish pattern at the S/R flip zone:
Trade Direction: Short (Sell).
Entry Strategy : The condition for entry is strictly: "If Pattern Comes we will see Supply". This means traders must wait for a clear bearish pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing candle, pin bar, or an indication of supply overwhelming demand) to form within the S/R Flip Zone on the 4H chart or a lower confirmation timeframe (e.g., 1H).
Stop Loss (S/L) : The Stop Loss should be placed securely above the highest wick of the S/R Flip Zone retest (e.g., above 0.19000), protecting against a false breakdown and a move back into the prior consolidation range.
Take Profit (T/P): The primary and most aggressive target is the Target Zone around 0.09000. Given the size of the move, interim profit targets may be placed at psychological levels (e.g., 0.12000 or 0.10000).
⚠️ Risk Management and Invalidation
The critical factor is adherence to the "If Pattern Comes" rule. Entering before a clear rejection of the S/R Flip Zone is premature. A decisive close above the S/R Flip Zone (e.g., above 0.19000) would invalidate this bearish setup, potentially signaling a large deviation move or a false structural break.
Gold Is Entering a Danger Zone—A Sharp Drop May Hit Before....📌 SETUP SIGNAL (GOLD – 4H)
Strategy: Sell the Downward Channel – Follow the Correction
1️⃣ Sell Setup
Entry: 4188–4175 (after a confirmed 4H close below 4188)
Stop-Loss: 4240
Take Profit:
TP1: 4120
TP2: 4050
Main Target: 4000–3990
Reason:
- Price is moving cleanly inside a descending correction channel.
- Repeated sell-offs + weak bullish reactions show sellers are still in control.
- Breaking 4188 confirms continuation toward the lower liquidity zone.
2️⃣ Alternative Scenario (Low Probability)
Bullish invalidation: Only if price breaks above 4280 (4H close).
→ Then the market may shift upward toward 4365–4370 liquidity.
📉 QUICK MARKET OUTLOOK – GOLD 4H (Rejection + Bearish Channel Forming)
Based on the current 4H structure, Gold is showing a clear pattern of repeating deep corrections every time it reaches major resistance/liquidity zones.
The latest price action continues to repeat this same behavior:
Key Observations
- Price has once again rejected strongly from the 4270–4280 zone (same rejection region as previous drops).
- A descending bearish channel is forming → indicating controlled distribution.
- The recent downward legs are consistent with past moves:
-8.47%, -11.31%, -5.60%, -2.21% → the market has a clear history of sharp sell-offs.
- Current structure suggests a continuing corrective wave until deeper support.
📌 Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
Price continues moving inside the descending channel and breaks the short-term support.
Targets → 4120 → 4050 → 4000
Major liquidity & demand zone sits at 3990 – 3980
→ where large buyers historically step in.
If panic selling accelerates, price may extend toward: → 3888 – 3900
📌 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)
Only activated if Gold breaks OUTSIDE the descending channel and reclaims: → 4280
This invalidates the bearish outlook and reopens the path to 4365 – 4370 liquidity.
🎯 FINAL CONCLUSION
Gold is currently in a corrective downtrend, moving exactly within a well-defined bearish channel.
Unless buyers break the structure, the market is likely heading for deeper retracement toward the 4000 zone before any meaningful bullish continuation.
"Stay patient. Stay disciplined. Let the market come to your levels."
XAG/USD 2H: High-Probability Sell Entry at Drop-Base-Rally (BRD)📈 XAG/USD 2H: High-Probability Long Entry at Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) Demand Zone
📝 Market Context: Bullish Trend and Retracement
The overall trend for Silver (XAG/USD) is strongly bullish, driven by fundamental factors like tight physical supply and expectations of future US interest rate cuts. The chart shows price has been moving sharply higher, but has recently experienced a significant and necessary pullback from its high. This pullback is being treated as a correction to gather new demand before continuing the primary upward trend toward potential targets like $60 - $65 per ounce.
The current price action has approached a critical area that served as the launchpad for the prior bullish impulse.
🔑 Technical Focus: Unmitigated Demand and Entry Confirmation
The analysis highlights two key zones: a high-quality Demand Zone and the last area of consolidation before the final breakout.
1. Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) Demand Zone 🟢
Zone Location: The green shaded box, spanning approximately $54.00 to $54.50.
Significance : This area is identified as a fresh Demand Zone. It conforms to the Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) structure, where an initial drop was followed by a period of consolidation (the Base), before buyers aggressively took control, leading to the strong rally (the Rally). This zone is considered a Reversal Zone where institutional buy orders are expected to remain unmitigated.
Action Plan: This is the high-probability area to initiate a long (buy) position, anticipating a strong rebound.
2. Liquidity & Stop-Loss Target (Bottom Green Zone)
Zone Location: The lower green box, around $53.50 to $53.80.
Significance : This zone may represent the ultimate base of the prior move. The price of Silver is known for high volatility. Placing the Stop Loss (S/L) safely below this zone (e.g., below $53.50) is crucial to protect the trade from a potential "liquidity sweep" or deeper structural break, providing a healthy buffer.
📊 Trade Plan: Sell the Dip
Trade Direction: Short (SELL)
Entry Strategy: Wait for price to enter the DBR Demand Zone (around $54.00 - $54.50). Confirmation is highly recommended, such as monitoring for a clear bullish reversal pattern (like an engulfing candle or a double bottom) on a lower timeframe (e.g., 30M or 1H) before entry.
Stop Loss (S/L): Place S/L below the entire demand structure, for example, below $53.50.
Take Profit (T/P) 1: The first target is the level of the most recent high that initiated the current drop (a retest of the supply that caused the current pullback).
Take Profit (T/P) 2: A higher-level target is the prior swing high at $56.00, or pushing towards the psychological $60 per ounce level, which is a common projection based on current market dynamics.
⚠️ Risk and Fundamental Caveats
While the technical setup is strong, Silver is highly volatile. Traders must closely monitor upcoming US economic data, as stronger-than-expected US reports could delay expected Fed rate cuts and put temporary downward pressure on non-yielding assets like Silver.
Invalidation: A decisive close below the Stop Loss area (below $53.50) would invalidate this long trade idea, signaling a deeper correction or a structural shift.
EUR/JPY 30M: High-Probability Short Setup & Supply Reversal Zone📉 EUR/JPY 30M: High-Probability Short Setup at Supply Reversal Zone
📝 Market Overview and Trend Context
The EUR/JPY pair is currently in a phase of strong recovery following a significant drop from a prior high established around the 181.400 level. This sharp, corrective rally (indicated by the upward price action starting December 2nd) is now approaching a critical area of unmitigated institutional supply.
The analysis focuses on exploiting the expected resumption of the selling pressure from this proven zone, treating the current bullish move as a deep retracement into an area where prior sellers initiated their positions.
🔑 Key Zones for Institutional Order Flow
The chart highlights two confluent zones that form the basis of the short hypothesis:
1. Reversal Zone / Volume Burst 🔴
Zone Location: This is the combined area (green and light-red boxes) spanning approximately 181.250 to 181.400.
Significance: This area is the precise origin of the prior sharp move down, making it a high-quality Supply Zone where a large concentration of selling orders is expected to reside.
The lower part, labeled "Reversal Zone", is the critical price level where resistance is first expected.
The upper part, "Volume Burst", represents the last opportunity for sellers to defend the price before the structure is broken.
Technical Confluence: The prior structural high is situated just above this zone, making it a key area of defense for existing sellers and a target for liquidity grabs.
2. Order Flow Origin (OFR)
Location: The level around 180.400.
Significance: This marks the point from which the previous aggressive move originated. While not an immediate target, a successful short trade from the supply zone would ultimately aim to break this lower structural point, confirming a shift in market control back to the bears.
📊 Trading Hypothesis: Shorting the Supply Test
The trade plan anticipates a rejection from the institutional supply zone:
Direction: Short (Sell)
Entry Strategy: Entry is optimal upon price tapping the Reversal Zone (starting around 181.250). Crucially, the chart demands a "Bearish Pattern Must" confirmation. This means traders should drop to a lower timeframe (e.g., 5M or 15M) and wait for a clear bearish reversal pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing candle, a double top on the smaller timeframe, or a break of minor structure) before initiating the short trade.
Stop Loss (S/L): The Stop Loss must be placed securely above the entire Volume Burst area (e.g., above 181.450). This placement protects the trade against a clear invalidation of the supply structure.
Take Profit (T/P) 1 (Initial Target): A strong initial target is the current swing low or the next clean demand zone, typically in the 180.700 area.
Take Profit (T/P) 2 (Continuation Target) : If price aggressively breaks T/P 1, the ultimate target is a run towards the OFR low around 180.400, confirming a full reversal of the recent bullish momentum.
⚠️ Risk Management and Invalidation
The greatest risk to this setup is the continuous bullish momentum breaking the prior high. A confirmed close above the Volume Burst zone (181.400) would signal a continuation of the bullish trend and invalidate the short setup. Adherence to the "Bearish Pattern Must" entry condition is paramount for reducing risk and avoiding false early entries.
EUR/GBP 2HR: Anticipating a Reversal from Fresh B-R Supply Zone📉 EUR/GBP 2H: Anticipating a Reversal from Fresh B-R Supply Zone
📝 Overview & Market Context
The EUR/GBP chart is currently illustrating a strong bullish trend on this intermediate timeframe, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The price has been rising and is now approaching a significant historical level of supply that previously acted as a strong turning point.
The core idea is to identify the origin of the last major bearish drop and wait for the price to retrace into that unmitigated zone for a high-probability short entry, aligning with the concept that supply areas often contain large, pending sell orders from institutional players.
🔑 Key Technical Zones
The analysis highlights three critical price zones based on Supply and Demand principles:
1. B-R Supply (Break-Rally Supply) 🔴
Zone: The large red box spanning approximately 0.87500 to 0.87800.
Significance: This zone represents a fresh, unmitigated supply area—the origin of a prior decisive price drop. The pattern appears to be a Rally-Base-Drop (RBD) or a Break-Rally formation, where buyers absorbed price into a base before sellers took over, causing an aggressive move down.
Trading Thesis: This is the high-probability entry zone for a short position, as institutional sell orders are expected to still reside here. The psychological level of 0.87500 also provides a confluence point for resistance.
2. Demand Entry Origin (D-R-D) 🟢
Zone: The green box around 0.87100 to 0.87200.
Significance: This area acted as a Demand Zone (likely a Drop-Base-Rally or D-R-D base) that launched the current rally. This confirms that the buyers driving the current move are active, but it also provides a potential first Take Profit (T/P) target for the anticipated short trade. A break below this would likely confirm a major bearish reversal.
3. Confirmation/Invalidation Level 🔵
The level marked just below the B-R Supply Zone acts as a confirmation level. A decisive break and close above the entire red supply zone would invalidate the bearish trade setup, indicating that buyers have overwhelmed the institutional supply at this level.
📊 Trade Plan: Shorting the Retracement
Trade Direction: Short (Sell)
Entry Strategy: Wait for price to enter the B-R Supply Zone (0.87500 - 0.87800). Entry should be confirmed by a price action rejection signal, such as an engulfing candle or a pin bar, on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15M or 30M) to minimize risk.
Stop Loss (S/L): Place the Stop Loss just above the distal (furthest) boundary of the B-R Supply Zone (e.g., above 0.87850) to protect against a complete structural break higher.
Take Profit (T/P) 1: The Demand Entry Origin (D-R-D) at 0.87150, offering a quick risk/reward opportunity.
Take Profit (T/P) 2: A lower structural low, targeting areas around 0.86800 if the move proves to be a full trend reversal.
🌐 Fundamental Note
The EUR/GBP pair is primarily influenced by the monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), alongside UK-EU economic ties. Divergence in interest rate expectations or unexpected economic data releases (like UK GDP or Eurozone Industrial Production) could accelerate or invalidate this purely technical setup.
This technical analysis provides a framework for entry; however, confirmation from price action and awareness of fundamental releases are crucial for risk management.
To understand how to correctly identify and use Supply and Demand zones for higher probability trades, you may want to watch this video on How to Master and Trade Supply and Demand.
XAUUSD M30 BULLISH TREND 📈 GOLD (XAUUSD) M30 — Trading Idea From your chart, GOLD is currently moving inside a descending channel, and the price has just touched a major trendline support coming from the left side of the chart. This area is acting as a strong demand zone. You have marked: Entry Zone: Around 4210 – 4215 Stop-Loss Zone: Around 4192 – 4193 Target Zone: Around 4267 🧠 Market Structure Price has been falling slowly inside a downward channel (a bullish correction pattern). The lower channel + long-term trendline is creating a confluence support. Current candles show rejection wicks, indicating buyers are reacting from this area. 📌 Trading Idea Bias: Bullish (buy setup) If price holds above the trendline and breaks out of the small descending channel, we can expect an upward move toward the next resistance. Entry Idea: Look for a breakout and retest of the channel. A bullish candle close on M30 would confirm buyers stepping in. Targets:
EUR/USD 30M: Targeting a Mini Zone for a Bullish Continuation🚀 EUR/USD 1H/30M: Targeting a Volume Burst Zone for a Bullish Continuation
🎯 Key Analysis: Seeking Long Entry from Demand
This analysis focuses on the EUR/USD pair on the 1-hour chart (labeled as 1H in the corner, but the title references 30 Mints Analysis—suggesting the core idea is for intraday trading based on a higher timeframe structure). The core strategy is to identify a high-probability Demand Zone after a major market event (the prior spike) and anticipate a bullish continuation.
📉 Prior Price Action and Market Context
The chart shows a significant price movement just before the analysis period:
Strong Upward Move: Price saw a sharp, aggressive rally, creating a new swing high.
Order Flow Reversal (OFR): Following the rally, the price experienced an equally sharp, deep pullback. The level labeled "OFR" (likely standing for Order Flow Reversal or the initiation point of the pullback) marks the immediate distribution that occurred after the high was printed.
Current Status: Price has stabilized following the sharp drop and is now consolidating just above the identified entry zone.
💡 The Bullish Setup: Mini Reversal Zone (Demand)
The trade hypothesis is based on price pulling back into a high-quality demand zone before moving higher.
1. Volume Burst / Mini Reversal Zone (Demand Entry) 🟢
Zone Location: The primary interest zone is the green shaded box, spanning approximately 1.15900 to 1.16050.
Significance: This area is the "Mini Reversal Zone" which coincides with a "Volume Burst" zone. This suggests it's the origin of the aggressive buying that launched the previous rally (the base of the strong move).
Action Plan: This zone is anticipated to be a high-probability area for buyers to step in again, absorbing the selling pressure from the current pullback.
Target Entry: Entry is suggested near the upper boundary of this zone, specifically around 1.16000 (a psychological level) or slightly below, maximizing the risk/reward ratio.
2. The "Need Pattern" 📈
The chart indicates a "Need Pattern" arrow pointing into the entry zone. This suggests the analyst expects a specific candlestick pattern (e.g., an engulfing candle, pin bar, or double bottom) or a clear shift in lower timeframe momentum within this zone to confirm the long entry.
📈 Proposed Trade Plan & Target
Direction: Long (Buy)
Entry: Wait for price to enter the Mini Reversal Zone (~1.16000 - 1.16050) and confirm with a bullish pattern ("Need Pattern").
Stop Loss (S/L): Place the Stop Loss safely below the Volume Burst zone (e.g., below 1.15850) to protect against continuation of the bearish move.
Take Profit (T/P) : The initial target would be a retest of the prior high, or a move back to the OFR level (around 1.16250 - 1.16300) for a strong risk/reward. The long-term target is a break of the previous high, as shown by the upper arrow.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This is a counter-trend move relative to the sharp pullback. Traders must wait for confirmation (the "Need Pattern") in the Mini Reversal Zone to manage risk effectively. Failure to hold the demand zone could signal a deeper move down.
USD/JPY Analysis : Potential Reversal & Supply From Target Zone 📈 USD/JPY 1H: Potential Reversal and Supply Retracement Play
🔑 Key Context: Bearish Trend with Demand Zone Reaction
The chart initially shows a strong downward trend or significant pullback, characterized by lower swing highs and lower swing lows on the 1-hour chart. This bearish movement breached a prior low established around November 27th.
Prior Structure: Price fell sharply, breaking below a level that was part of a previous consolidation or minor distribution phase (the area marked 'D-R Supply' boundary).
Current Action: The price has recently made a strong low and is now showing signs of an aggressive move back up (a recovery rally).
🎯 Identifying Key Zones
The analysis highlights three critical zones based on supply/demand and technical structure:
1. Reversal Zone (Demand) 🟢
This is the lowest green box, around 154.650 - 154.800.
Significance: This zone acted as a strong Demand area, causing the significant bullish reversal/bounce we are currently seeing. It's the point where buyers stepped in aggressively, stopping the immediate bearish momentum. The low of the move touched the upper boundary of this zone before the strong rally began.
2. D-R Supply (Drop-Base-Drop/Rally-Base-Drop Supply) 🔴
This is the overall consolidation area that was previously broken, roughly between 155.600 and 156.400.
Significance: This large area represents where a significant amount of selling pressure entered the market, leading to the large drop. The current move upward is likely a retracement back into this supply structure.
3. Target and Volume Burst Zone 🔵 & 🟢
Target (Blue Box): This level, around 156.350 - 156.450, appears to be the immediate objective for the current bullish move. It lines up with the bottom of the old consolidation area (the D-R Supply).
Volume Burst (Top Green Box): This zone, from approximately 156.450 to 156.650, represents the upper part of the broken supply zone. This is a potential high-probability area where the initial sellers are likely to defend their positions, leading to a strong reaction (a "Volume Burst" of selling/distribution).
💡 Trading Hypothesis: Retracement to Supply
The current price action suggests the following trade setup:
Scenario : The bounce from the Reversal Zone (Demand) is expected to continue as a retracement to test the broken D-R Supply zone above.
Entry: Traders who entered at the Demand Reversal Zone would be looking to hold the position. New entries might look for continuation patterns to join the current rally.
Take Profit: The Target (blue box) and the lower part of the Volume Burst zone are key areas for taking profit on long positions, as price is expected to encounter significant resistance there.
Continuation/New Trade: Once the price reaches the Volume Burst area, a new short trade setup could be considered, anticipating a rejection and resumption of the overall bearish bias or a continuation of the downtrend from that high-resistance level.
⚠️ Caveats and Confirmation
The current rally needs to maintain momentum and successfully break above the CZ (Confirmation Zone) level marked around 156.000 to confirm the target is achievable.
Failure to sustain the rally above the 156.000 area could indicate a shallower retracement or a potential double-bottom/range setup.
Risk Management: Any long trade should place a stop-loss below the Reversal Zone low.
USDCAD: Another Bullish Confirmation 🇺🇸🇨🇦
A quick follow-up for the yesterday's post for USDCAD.
I see another bullish pattern on a 4H time frame now.
The price formed a cup & handle pattern and broke its neckline.
I still expect a move up to 1.402
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BTCUSDT 30M Analysis: Reverse Zone Re-Test Before Major Drop 📊 BTCUSDT 30-Minute Technical Analysis – Reversal Zone Under Pressure
This 30-minute BTCUSDT chart highlights an important bearish setup forming after a sharp downside move. Bitcoin is currently consolidating near a Reversal Zone, suggesting that price may attempt a retest before continuing lower.
🔻 Market Structure Overview
Bitcoin recently experienced:
A strong impulsive sell-off
A brief consolidation phase
A minor recovery back into a previous support now acting as resistance
This structure indicates that sellers are still in control.
🟥 Reversal Zone (Major Resistance Area)
The highlighted red zone is the primary bearish reaction area.
Why this zone matters:
Price broke below this level with strong momentum
It is now acting as a potential supply zone
A bearish candlestick pattern in this area would confirm sellers stepping in
Your chart clearly notes: “Bearish Pattern Need On That Zone.”
A rejection here is the most important bearish confirmation.
🟦 Mini Reversal Zone (Previous Demand Area)
Below current price sits a smaller demand zone.
This zone previously showed:
Buyer reactions
Short-term reversals
Support in the recent downtrend
If price breaks below this mini zone, BTCUSDT may aim for deeper liquidity levels, confirming bearish continuation.
📉 Expected Price Behavior
Based on the projected path drawn on your chart:
Price will retest the Reversal Zone
A bearish engulfing, pin bar, or rejection wick may form
Price may drop aggressively after confirmation
Final target is a deeper zone around the previous swing lows
The downward arrow illustrates the expected continuation if bulls fail to defend nearby support.
⭐ Key Takeaways
Bitcoin remains in a bearish structure on the 30M timeframe
A strong bearish pattern in the Reversal Zone is required for confirmation
Rejection from this resistance may trigger another downside wave
Break and hold above the zone would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook
🧠 Short Summary for Minds
Bitcoin is approaching a key Reversal Zone on the 30-minute chart. If a bearish pattern forms here, BTCUSDT may continue dropping toward lower support levels. Sellers remain strong unless bulls break above the resistance zone.
Gold Holds Its Breath Ahead of PMI: Breakout or Breakdown?If I had to describe gold right now, I’d call XAUUSD a “predator hiding in the bushes” — no longer in a wild breakout phase, but quietly waiting, watching, and preparing for the next news-driven move.
In terms of fundamentals, the market is awaiting the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast at 49.0, slightly higher than the previous 48.7, but still below the 50 threshold . In other words, the U.S. manufacturing sector is expected to look “less bad,” but not strong enough to change the bigger picture. With that backdrop, neither the USD nor gold has a solid reason to break out before the data — sentiment is simply: wait for the actual numbers, then move.
On the H4 chart, gold is pressing against the upper trendline, right at the 4,300–4,310 resistance zone , while support sits below at the 4,220 level overlapping the rising trendline and the Ichimoku cloud . These two areas form a natural “price box”: the top attracts profit-taking from buyers, the bottom attracts fresh dip-buyers — a classic setup for a healthy sideway accumulation phase.
My preferred scenario: XAUUSD may continue oscillating between 4,220–4,310, where spikes toward 4,30 tend to trigger selling, while dips to around 4,22 draw in buyers. As long as price does not clearly break out of either boundary, I consider this a sideway market within a larger bullish structure , ideal for trading the range rather than trying to predict the next breakout.
XAUUSD – Bullish Structure Holding Above EMAsXAUUSD – Bullish Structure Holding Above EMAs
Gold continues to trade in an upward structure, with price respecting both the 7-EMA and 21-EMA on the 15-minute chart. Momentum remains constructive as buyers maintain control above the intraday trendline and volume supports the ongoing push.
The setup highlights a potential continuation zone, with price consolidating above key EMAs and forming higher lows. As long as structure holds, the market may look for liquidity toward the next intraday highs.
This idea focuses on the current price behavior, EMAs alignment, and bullish market sentiment—not financial advice.
XAUUSD Analysis - Trendline Rejection & Potential Bounce Setup📊 XAUUSD 30-Minute Technical Analysis – Trendline Pressure & Key Demand Zone
This 30-minute XAUUSD chart shows gold currently trading under a clear descending trendline, indicating short-term bearish pressure. Price has rejected the trendline multiple times, confirming sellers are still active in the market.
🔻 Current Market Structure
Gold is forming lower highs and lower lows, respecting the downtrend structure. Recent candles show rejection from the trendline once again, suggesting a potential continuation toward the lower support zone.
🟦 Mini Reversal Zone (MRZ)
A key short-term demand area exists between 4,190 – 4,185 (marked in blue).
This zone has previously acted as a minor support, and the price may attempt a temporary bounce from here.
🟩 Major Demand Zone / Volume Burst Area
The stronger reversal area sits below the MRZ, highlighted in green.
This is where the chart indicates:
High buying volume previously entered the market
Bullish reactions were seen earlier
The next impulsive leg may start once price enters this volume burst zone
This zone will be crucial for spotting bullish reversal patterns, such as:
Bullish engulfing
Pin bar / hammer
Break and retest setups
🔍 What We Need
Inside the marked demand zones, we need a positive bullish pattern to confirm buyer strength. Entering without confirmation may be risky due to ongoing trendline resistance.
📉 Expected Price Path
The projected price movement shows:
A drop from current levels toward the MRZ
A potential short pullback
Final sweep into the Volume Burst Zone
A possible bullish reversal from that deeper area
If a strong bullish pattern forms in the green zone, buyers may push back toward the trendline and possibly attempt a breakout.
⚠️ Important Notes
Trendline remains the immediate barrier for buyers
Bearish continuation is possible until the deeper support zone is tested
Only bullish confirmation patterns can validate a reversal
✅ Short Summary (For Minds / Social Posting)
Gold is still under bearish pressure on the 30M chart, moving inside a descending trendline. Price is expected to test the Mini Reversal Zone and possibly drop deeper into the Volume Burst Demand Zone. A bullish reversal is only valid if a strong positive pattern forms in these areas.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🎤 Bowman testimony hits at 10 AM — this is the only fixed macro event of the day, and her tone on regulation and economic conditions can nudge yields.
🚗 Auto Sales (Nov) TBA — release time unclear, but this report can move cyclicals if it prints far from expectations. Previous level was 16.4 million annualized.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
10 00 AM
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman — Testimony
TBA
• Auto Sales (Nov)
Previous: 16.4 million
Note: Release time is not announced
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational use only, not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #stocks #macro #fed #autosales #markets #trading #investing
XAUUSD: Bearish Correction Targets $3822 amidst Uptrend.Scenario: Bearish Corrective Move within a larger Uptrend.
Current Price (Approx.): $4,218.81
Chart Context: Price has already retraced from the recent high of $4,381.73 and is currently hovering near the 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement ($4,249.74) and above the 0.4 Fibonacci Retracement ($4,158.02).
Key Levels
Key Resistance Zone (Potential Reversal): $4,338 (Close to the recent high/start of the pullback).
Primary Target (Take Profit): $3,822 (Coincides with the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level of the structure shown, indicating a full retracement of the move from $3,822.46 to $4,381.73).






















