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BTCUSDT Break of Structure & Clean Retest – Bullish Continuation📊 Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) – 1H Timeframe | Detailed Price Action & Market Structure Analysis This chart represents Bitcoin / TetherUS Perpetual (BTCUSDT) on the 1-hour timeframe, focusing on market structure shift, breakout confirmation, and retest logic, which are key concepts in professional price action and smart money trading. 🔹 Overall Market Structure Bitcoin was previously moving in a choppy and corrective structure, showing mixed momentum with sharp bullish and bearish swings. This type of behavior often indicates liquidity grabs and accumulation, especially near key support levels. As price stabilized, BTC formed a higher low, signaling a potential trend shift from bearish to bullish. 🔹 Major Breakout Level The chart clearly marks a “Major Break” level, which acted as a strong resistance zone in the past. Price finally broke above this level with strong bullish candles, indicating: A break of structure (BOS) Increased buyer dominance Acceptance above a key resistance This breakout is critical because it confirms bullish intent in the market. 🔹 Retest Zone (Support Flip) After the breakout, price pulled back into the highlighted blue zone, labeled as “Retesting”. This area now acts as: Previous resistance turned support A high-probability buy-on-dip zone A zone where institutions may re-enter long positions Price respecting this zone strengthens the idea that the breakout is valid, not a fake move. 🔹 Price Action Behavior Within the retest zone, price shows: Strong bullish rejections Small-bodied candles followed by expansion Gradual upward pressure This suggests buyers are absorbing sell orders, preparing for the next impulsive move. 🔹 Bullish Projection & Targets The projected path on the chart shows: Continuation after a successful retest Higher highs forming above the recent structure Momentum aiming toward 90,800 – 91,600 and potentially higher if volume supports As long as price holds above the retest zone, the bullish bias remains intact. 🔹 Trading Psychology & Strategy Insight This setup aligns with a classic Break → Retest → Continuation model: Avoid chasing the breakout Wait for price to return to value Enter trades with better risk-to-reward Discipline and patience are key here. 🧠 Fin al Thoughts Market bias: Bullish Key confirmation: Hold above retest zone Invalidation: Strong close below the support zone Best approach: Confirmation-based buys This chart reflects clean technical structure, making it suitable for both intraday and short-term swing traders.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Continuation After Demand Zone Retest📊 Gold (XAUUSD) – 30-Minute Chart | Detailed Technical Analysis This chart shows Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) on the 30-minute timeframe, and it highlights a very important phase of post-impulse consolidation and potential continuation. 🔹 Market Structure Overview Gold has recently shown strong bullish momentum, visible through a sequence of large bullish candles with expanding bodies. This impulsive move suggests strong institutional participation, confirmed by the volume burst marked on the chart. After this aggressive rally, price entered a corrective phase, forming a short-term pullback with smaller bearish candles. This behavior is healthy and typical after a strong push, indicating profit-taking rather than trend reversal. 🔹 Key Zone: Demand / Support Area The highlighted green zone represents a demand area, created after the strong bullish expansion. This zone is important because: It aligns with the origin of the impulsive move It shows high trading volume, signaling strong buying interest Price is expected to retest this area before continuation The chart clearly labels this phase as “Retesting”, which means price may dip into this zone to absorb liquidity and attract buyers. 🔹 Price Action & Pattern Expectations At the moment, price is hovering above the demand zone, but the idea emphasizes: Patience is required A clear bullish pattern (such as bullish engulfing, pin bar, or strong rejection) should form inside or near the zone Only after confirmation, buy-side opportunities become valid The note “Need Pattern And Buy Side” reinforces the importance of waiting for price action confirmation, not blindly entering trades. 🔹 Bullish Projection The upward arrow drawn on the chart represents a bullish continuation scenario: After a successful retest Followed by strong bullish confirmation Price may resume its upward trajectory toward higher resistance levels This projection aligns with the overall bullish market structure unless the demand zone is clearly broken with strong bearish volume. 🔹 Trading Psychology Insight This setup favors smart money logic: Impulse → Pullback → Retest → Continuation Traders who wait for confirmation inside high-probability zones often achieve better risk-to-reward trades and avoid emotional entries. 🧠 Final Thoughts Trend bias: Bullish Key focus: Demand zone retest Entry style: Confirmation-based buying Risk management: Essential if demand zone fails This chart represents a professional, rule-based trading idea, emphasizing patience, structure, and volume rather than aggressive chasing.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold Isn’t Chasing Price — It’s Following a Macro Cycle GOLD (XAUUSD) – H1 | Cycle-Based + Macro Analysis 1. Market Cycle Structure Gold is moving inside a clean ascending channel, confirming a healthy bull cycle, not an exhaustion phase. Each impulse leg is followed by controlled pullbacks that stay above prior structure. No aggressive rejection at highs → acceptance near the upper channel, which is bullish. This is a trend-continuation cycle, not a blow-off top. 2. EMA Behavior (Trend Validation) EMA 34 & EMA 89 are stacked bullish and sloping upward. Price consistently reclaims EMA 34 after shallow pullbacks. This indicates institutional trend participation, not retail-driven spikes. ➡️ As long as price holds above EMA 34 on pullbacks, the cycle remains intact. 3. Price Action Logic (Cycle Progression) The current structure shows: Impulse → flag → impulse No lower low printed inside the channel Pullbacks are time-based, not price-based (sideways instead of deep drops) This behavior typically precedes: An expansion leg toward the upper channel boundary → new ATH attempt 4. Macro Context (Why Gold Keeps Rising) Gold’s cycle is supported by macro tailwinds, not speculation: Real yields remain under pressure → bullish for non-yielding assets Central banks continue net gold accumulation USD strength is no longer suppressing gold aggressively Risk hedging demand remains elevated globally ➡️ This is structural demand, not short-term fear buying. 5. Outlook & Scenario Primary Scenario (High Probability): Shallow consolidation near current highs Brief pullback toward channel midline / EMA support Continuation breakout toward the upper channel → new ATH zone Invalidation: Only a clean break and hold below the channel + EMA 89 would break the cycle Until then, dips are buy-the-structure, not sell signals 🧠 Final Takeaway Gold is not overextended. It is cycling higher in a controlled institutional trend, and price behavior strongly suggests new highs are a matter of timing, not direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
EURUSD Is Quiet — But This Structure Signals the Next MoveEURUSD – H1 | Technical + Macro Analysis Technical Structure Price has broken the descending trendline and is now stabilizing above the key support zone. The market is forming higher lows, signaling selling pressure is weakening. Price is holding near the EMA cluster, suggesting a transition from correction to accumulation. Upside targets sit at the previous supply zone, where a range breakout could accelerate. Macro Context (EUR vs USD) USD momentum is fading as markets price in slower US growth and future rate cuts. ECB policy remains restrictive relative to growth risks, helping stabilize EUR. Risk sentiment has improved slightly, reducing defensive USD demand. Outlook Primary scenario: Consolidation above support → gradual push toward resistance. Invalidation: Clean break below the support zone would reopen downside risk. Bottom Line EURUSD is no longer trending down it’s building a base. If macro pressure on USD continues, this structure favors a controlled upside rotation, not a breakdown.
Long
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Gold Is Building the Base for a Fresh ATH — Macro Is the FuelXAUUSD – H1 | Technical Technical Structure Gold is holding above former resistance, now acting as support — a classic post-breakout consolidation. Higher lows remain intact, momentum structure is bullish. Price is compressing just below old ATH, signaling acceptance at high levels, not rejection. Macro Drivers Supporting a New ATH US Dollar weakness: Expectations of rate cuts and slowing US growth continue to pressure USD. Falling real yields: This directly supports gold as a non-yielding asset. Central bank demand: Ongoing accumulation from global central banks keeps long-term demand strong. Geopolitical & macro uncertainty: Sustains safe-haven flows into gold. Scenario Outlook Primary: Short consolidation → breakout → New ATH expansion. Pullbacks: Any retracement toward previous breakout levels is likely buy-the-dip, not trend reversal. Bottom Line Gold is not chasing highs it is building value above resistance. With macro conditions aligned, the probability favors a clean breakout into a new all-time high rather than a major correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
GBPUSD Isn’t Trending — It’s Loading Liquidity for BreaKGBPUSD – H1 Technical Analysis Market Structure: GBPUSD is currently trading inside a well-defined moving range, not a trend. Price is rotating cleanly between support and resistance, indicating liquidity-building behavior rather than directional commitment. Key Zones: Resistance Zone: ~1.3450–1.3460 Support Zone: ~1.3315–1.3330 Price Action Insight: Repeated rejections from both extremes confirm a range-bound environment. Recent higher low inside the range suggests short-term bullish momentum, but still within consolidation. No strong impulsive breakout candle → market is waiting for confirmation. Primary Scenario: Price continues to oscillate inside the range, potentially pushing toward the upper resistance zone to test sell-side liquidity before a decision point. Alternative Scenario: A failure near resistance could send price back toward range support for another liquidity sweep. Conclusion: GBPUSD is not ready to trend yet. Until a clean breakout with acceptance occurs, the market favors range trading and patience, not aggression.
Long
by Gold_Dominator
Gold Is Not Topping — It’s Loading for $4,500XAUUSD – H1 Analysis Market Structure: Gold is maintaining a strong bullish structure, consolidating tightly below the previous high. This is a classic continuation setup, not a distribution phase. Key Zones: - Resistance Zone: The former high area has now been tested and absorbed. Price acceptance above this zone signals strength. - Support Zone: Buyers continue to defend the higher support band, confirming higher lows and trend control. Price Action Insight: Sideways movement under resistance = bullish consolidation. No aggressive sell-off after breakout → sellers are weak. Volume remains stable, suggesting institutional accumulation rather than exhaustion. Primary Scenario: A brief pullback to retest the breakout zone, followed by continuation toward new highs, with $4,500 as the next psychological magnet. Risk Scenario: Only a strong breakdown back below the consolidation range would invalidate the bullish bias. Conclusion: Gold is building energy above key levels. As long as price holds above support, dips are opportunities the trend favors continuation, not reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
ETH Is Compressing — Breakout or Another Trap?ETH/USD – H1 Analysis Market Structure: ETH is moving sideways after a strong recovery from the lower support zone. Price is now compressing just below a key resistance band, signaling indecision and liquidity build-up. Key Levels: Resistance: The upper red zone is the main barrier. Multiple rejections here confirm heavy supply. Support: The green support zone below remains intact and continues to attract buyers on pullbacks. Price Action Insight: Sideways movement under resistance = accumulation, not weakness. Higher lows are forming, showing buyers are gradually gaining control. This structure often precedes a sharp expansion move. Primary Scenario: A clean break and hold above resistance opens the path toward the higher resistance zone above. Alternative Scenario: Failure to break may trigger a pullback toward support to reset momentum before the next attempt. Conclusion: ETH is in a decision zone. Stay patient wait for confirmation. The next move is likely to be fast and directional.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
EURUSD Is Not Rebounding — It’s Preparing for the Next Leg DownEURUSD – 1H SHORT ANALYSIS Market Structure Price is holding below a clear resistance zone, with repeated failures to reclaim higher levels. Current movement shows weak reaction from support, indicating demand is not aggressive. Structure remains lower highs → range-to-bearish continuation, not a reversal. Technical Bias Consolidation above support looks more like distribution, not accumulation. Any short-term bounce is likely a liquidity pullback before continuation. As long as price stays below resistance, sell pressure dominates. Scenarios Primary: Minor bounce → rejection → continuation toward Target 1, then Target 2. Invalidation: Strong acceptance back above resistance zone. Bottom Line This is sell-the-rally structure, not a buy-the-dip market. Patience favors shorts direction is decided below resistance, not at support.
Short
by RexTraderSignal
Gold Is Executing the Next Wyckoff LegGOLD (XAUUSD) – 30M STRUCTURE UPDATE Price is confirming Wyckoff Phase C → D, with a clean breakout from Phase B. Structure shows impulsive markup followed by controlled pullbacks — classic continuation behavior. Price holds above EMA 34 & EMA 89, confirming trend strength and acceptance at higher levels. The move labeled (1) → (2) → (3) reflects a healthy bullish sequence, not exhaustion. Near-Term Path Base case: Short consolidation / shallow pullback → continuation toward (5). Invalidation: Only if price loses the EMA cluster and falls back into the prior range. Bottom line: Gold is not topping it is advancing in phases. Patience favors continuation, not counter-trend trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
Smart Money Is Executing the Next PhaseGOLD MARKET ANALYSIS (XAUUSD) — DAILY UPDATE 📌 Market Context Gold continues to follow a Wyckoff schematic, transitioning from Phase B into Phase C/D. The breakout from the prolonged range confirms active participation from large players, not retail-driven noise. 🔎 Structure & Technicals Price holds above key moving averages, keeping the primary uptrend intact. Current advance represents a markup leg, followed by a healthy technical pullback. Momentum indicators remain elevated → volatility is expected, but no reversal signals are present. 📈 Today’s Scenarios Primary Scenario: Mild correction → re-accumulation above new support → continuation toward higher targets. Alternative Scenario: Deeper pullback = liquidity test (Spring / Shakeout) before the next leg higher. Daily Bias: BUY with structure. Avoid FOMO. 🎯 Strategic Insight This move is driven by smart money positioning, not emotional buying. Patience and phase recognition remain the edge. TODAY’S LIMITED STRATEGY — DEC 22 Intraday Focus: Re-Accumulation 📌 Setup 1 — Timing Sell Zone Sell Zone: 4418 – 4421 TP: 4415 – 4410 SL: 4425 📌 Setup 2 — Timing Buy Zone Buy Zone: 4332 – 4335 TP: 4338 – 4343 SL: 4328 ⚠️ Strict risk management required. Protect capital first. Bottom Line: The trend is bullish. The edge is patience not speed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
Gold Is Not Trending. It’s Deciding.GOLD (XAUUSD) – 1H TECHNICAL & MACRO ANALYSIS Market Structure (Technical) - Gold remains in a clear short-term uptrend, still trading above both EMA 34 and EMA 89, confirming bullish structure has not been broken. - Price is currently consolidating below Target 1 (~4348) after a sharp impulsive move, which is typical bullish digestion, not distribution. - The recent pullback respected the weak support zone around 4313–4320, aligning closely with EMA 89 → this indicates buyers are still defending dips. - As long as price holds above the strong support zone (~4270–4280), the broader bullish structure remains intact. Key Levels Resistance / Target 1: ~4348 Target 2 (Old ATH): ~4380 Weak Support: ~4313–4320 Strong Support: ~4270–4280 Scenarios Primary (Bullish continuation – higher probability): Sideways consolidation → higher low → break above 4348 → extension toward 4380 (old ATH) and potential new ATH. Alternative (Deeper pullback, still bullish): Loss of weak support → retrace into strong support → liquidity grab → continuation higher. CONCLUSION Gold is not rejecting resistance it is absorbing liquidity below it. This price behavior, combined with a supportive macro backdrop, strongly favors a continuation move toward the old ATH and beyond, rather than a trend reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
BTC Is Being Traded, Not TrendingBTC/USD – 1H Brief Analysis Bitcoin is locked inside a high-liquidity range, where price repeatedly sweeps both highs and lows without follow-through. Sharp moves are quickly faded, confirming rotation and order flow balance, not trend continuation. Price is currently oscillating around the mid-range and key EMAs, showing indecision rather than strength or weakness. As long as BTC remains inside this box, the market’s objective is simple: collect liquidity on both sides. Key Read No clean acceptance → no trend Breakout attempts are being sold Dips are being absorbed, not extended Expectation More range rotation and false breaks until price decisively exits the zone. Bottom Line This is a liquidity environment. Direction becomes tradable only after the range is resolved.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
BTC Is Trapped — The Next Move Won’t Be SmallBTCUSD (H4) — Technical & Macro Analysis 1) Market Structure - Bitcoin is currently trading inside a well-defined range / accumulation zone, capped by a strong Resistance Zone above and supported by a clear Support Zone below. - Price is still below EMA34 and EMA89, meaning short-term momentum remains neutral-to-weak until these levels are reclaimed. - Overall structure confirms a sideways market, not a confirmed trend yet. 2) Key Technical Levels - Key Resistance / Pivot: 88,000 – 89,400 → Reclaiming this zone is required to shift momentum bullish. - Mid-range target: 90,000 – 92,000 - Major Resistance (Range High): 94,000 – 95,000 - Local Support: 85,000 – 86,000 - Critical Support (Range Low): 82,000 – 83,000 3) Price Behavior - Failure to hold above the EMAs shows buyers are still cautious. - However, repeated defense of the 85k–86k zone suggests accumulation rather than distribution. - This is classic range behavior: build liquidity → fake moves → real breakout later . 4) Scenarios Ahead Primary Scenario (Preferred): Sideways Accumulation → Push Higher - Condition: Price holds above 85k–86k and reclaims 88k–89.4k. - Target path: 90k–92k → 94k–95k. Alternative Scenario: Rejection → Retest Support - If BTC is rejected again at the EMA resistance zone, price may revisit 85k–86k, or deeper toward 82k–83k. Invalidation: A clean breakdown below 82k–83k would invalidate the range structure and open downside risk. 5) Macro Context - Fed policy uncertainty keeps risk appetite cautious. - High bond yields & strong USD continue to pressure risk assets. - Major US data (CPI, NFP, PCE) often trigger volatility, but price typically compresses before these events. - Liquidity conditions favor accumulation and consolidation, not impulsive trends. Summary BTC remains in a clear consolidation phase. Until a strong breakout occurs, the market should be traded as a range with patience, confirmation, and strict risk management. What do you think about BTC at this key zone?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Bitcoin Isn’t BreakingBTCUSD (H1) — Focused Analysis Market Structure BTC remains in a clear range-bound market. Price is rotating between strong support and resistance, not forming a trend. The prior downtrend has transitioned into accumulation / balance. Key Zones Resistance Zone: ~90,500 Support Zone: ~85,200 Current Price: Mid–upper range → liquidity-driven moves dominate. Liquidity Context The highlighted area is a high-liquidity price range. Price is designed to sweep both sides: Push up to resistance → trap longs Flush to support → trap shorts This environment favors range trading, not breakout chasing. Scenarios Primary Scenario (High Probability): Continued sideways oscillation inside the range. Expect fake breakouts and sharp reversals. Breakout Scenario (Lower Probability): Only valid with a strong close above 90,500 + volume expansion. Until then, upside spikes are likely liquidity grabs. Summary Bitcoin is not trending it’s absorbing orders. Patience is the edge. Wait for confirmation, or trade the range with discipline.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gold_Dominator
Gold Is Not at a Top — It’s Compressing Below HistoryGold continues to trade in a strong bullish structure on H4, with a clear sequence of higher lows confirming that buyers remain firmly in control. After the impulsive leg up, price is now consolidating directly below the previous highest high around 4,380 a textbook bullish consolidation rather than a distribution phase. This range-bound movement shows that selling pressure is being absorbed, not expanded, as pullbacks remain shallow and demand consistently steps in. As long as price holds above the higher-low base of the consolidation, the broader bias stays bullish, and this sideways action should be viewed as a buildup of pressure. A clean acceptance above the 4,380 resistance zone would likely trigger continuation toward a new ATH, while failure to break simply extends the consolidation, not invalidates the trend. This is a wait for expansion environment patience is the trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Gold_Dominator
2
1000LUNCUSDT.P: short setup from daily support at 0.04315BINANCE:1000LUNCUSDT.P , following a strong rally, consolidated briefly and then started returning to where it came from, as is often the case. We currently have a local level at 0.04315, above which the price is consolidating. The crucial criterion in this situation will be to wait for the daily bar close (UTC). If the close is near the level and close to the day's low, these will be good signals for a short position. Key factors for this scenario: Price void / low liquidity zone beyond level Volatility contraction on approach Immediate retest Closing near the level Closing near the bar's extreme Factors that contradict this scenario: Lack of consolidation Was this analysis helpful? Leave your thoughts in the comments and follow to see more.
Short
by The_Traders_House
1
$SPY: 15m Structural Repair & Dynamic Trend BreakoutWhat I’m Seeing: I am currently observing a confluence on the AMEX:SPY 15-minute chart following the Friday close at $680.59. My Structure Engine shows that price has fully cleared the $679 intraday demand threshold, effectively 'repairing' the liquidity void created during the mid-morning dip. Simultaneously, the Automatic Trend Line script has printed a fresh support level at $679.50, confirming that the short-term trend is now realigned with the larger bullish bias. Why It Matters: This 15m confluence is a high-confidence signal for intraday expansion. By 'sealing' the void below $679, the market has established a new structural floor. When the Automatic Trend Line engine identifies support right on top of a repaired zone, it indicates that the 'path of least resistance' has shifted upward. It suggests that intraday sellers have been absorbed and momentum is now being guided by the dynamic trend. What I Expect to See Next: I expect the 15m trend to hold as price targets the immediate pivot high at $681.50. If we see a 15m candle body close above $681.50, the 'void' to the next major resistance at $684.22 (Monday's projected range high) becomes the primary target. I will be watching for the Trend Engine to maintain its slope; a breakdown below the $676.75 support would invalidate this short-term structural repair thesis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by GammaBulldog
SOLUSD - December Distribution Structure Executive Summary COINBASE:SOLUSD has declined approximately 52 percent from its November 2024 all-time high of 264 USD to current levels around 126 USD. This analysis examines the technical structure, on-chain metrics, and fundamental catalysts to determine high-probability trade zones. The evidence suggests further downside toward the 100-115 USD accumulation zone before a sustainable recovery can begin. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview Solana is currently trading within a descending channel that formed after the November 2024 peak. The structure shows: Lower highs at 264, 220, 180, and 145 USD forming clear descending resistance Lower lows indicating sustained selling pressure Current price testing the 125-130 USD zone which previously acted as resistance in October 2024 Volume declining on bounces and increasing on selloffs - classic distribution signature Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Zones: 140-145 USD - Recent swing high rejection zone 160-165 USD - Previous support turned resistance 180-185 USD - Major structural resistance Support Zones: 115-120 USD - Minor support, likely to break 100-105 USD - Major support, November 2024 breakout origin 85-90 USD - Secondary support if macro deteriorates Moving Average Analysis Price is trading below the 20, 50, and 200 period moving averages on the daily timeframe The 20 MA has crossed below the 50 MA, confirming short-term bearish momentum The 200 MA is flattening and beginning to slope downward Moving averages are fanning out in bearish alignment RSI and Momentum Daily RSI is currently in the 35-40 range, approaching oversold but not yet at extreme levels RSI has been making lower highs alongside price, confirming the downtrend No bullish divergence present yet - divergence at the 100-115 zone would be a strong buy signal Weekly RSI has room to decline further before reaching oversold extremes seen at previous bottoms Volume Profile High volume node exists at the 100-115 USD zone from the November 2024 accumulation period Current price zone shows relatively low volume, suggesting lack of strong buyer interest Volume has been declining during recent bounce attempts - weak demand A volume spike at the 100-115 zone would confirm institutional accumulation Fibonacci Retracement Measuring from the September 2024 low of 120 USD to the November 2024 high of 264 USD: 0.382 retracement: 209 USD - Already broken 0.5 retracement: 192 USD - Already broken 0.618 retracement: 175 USD - Already broken 0.786 retracement: 151 USD - Already broken Full retracement: 120 USD - Currently testing The breakdown through the 0.786 level suggests the move is corrective in nature and a full retracement to the 100-120 USD origin zone is probable. On-Chain and Fundamental Analysis Network Activity Metrics Solana network statistics show mixed signals: Daily active addresses have declined from peak levels during the meme coin mania Transaction counts remain elevated compared to other Layer 1 networks Total Value Locked in Solana DeFi protocols has decreased from highs NFT trading volume on Solana marketplaces has cooled significantly Supply Distribution Large holder concentration remains high with significant whale wallet activity Exchange inflows have increased in recent weeks, indicating selling pressure Staking participation remains strong, reducing liquid supply FTX bankruptcy estate continues systematic liquidation of SOL holdings Macro Factors Affecting Solana Bearish Catalysts: Federal Reserve December 2025 meeting maintained hawkish stance with fewer rate cuts projected for 2026 Risk-off sentiment affecting high-beta assets disproportionately BITSTAMP:BTCUSD dominance rising, indicating capital rotation from altcoins to Bitcoin Regulatory uncertainty regarding Solana ETF approval timeline FTX estate selling pressure creating persistent supply overhang Meme coin speculation that drove the 2024 rally has cooled substantially Bullish Catalysts: Solana network upgrades improving transaction throughput and reliability Growing institutional interest in Solana ecosystem projects Potential Solana ETF approval could drive significant inflows Strong developer activity and ecosystem growth metrics Firedancer client development progressing, promising improved network performance Solana remains the preferred chain for new DeFi and consumer applications Competitive Positioning Solana maintains advantages over competing Layer 1 networks: Transaction costs remain significantly lower than BITSTAMP:ETHUSD mainnet Transaction speed and finality superior to most competitors Developer ecosystem continues expanding despite price decline Institutional partnerships and integrations increasing However, challenges persist: Network outages and congestion issues have damaged reputation Centralization concerns regarding validator distribution Competition from Ethereum Layer 2 solutions intensifying Regulatory classification uncertainty in United States Whale and Institutional Activity Recent on-chain data indicates: Large wallets have been net sellers over the past 30 days Exchange deposits from whale addresses have increased Institutional funds have reduced Solana allocation according to fund flow data However, accumulation signals are appearing at lower price levels The pattern suggests distribution at current levels with potential accumulation beginning at the 100-115 USD zone. Trade Framework Primary Scenario - Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability) The weight of evidence supports further downside before a sustainable bottom forms: Technical structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows Price below all major moving averages Macro environment unfavorable for risk assets On-chain metrics showing distribution No bullish divergence on momentum indicators yet Short Setup: Entry Zone: 130-140 USD on relief bounces Stop Loss: Above 148 USD Target 1: 115-118 USD Target 2: 105-108 USD Target 3: 95-100 USD Secondary Scenario - Accumulation at Support The 100-115 USD zone represents a high-conviction long opportunity if confirmation signals appear: This zone was the origin of the November 2024 rally High volume node from previous accumulation period Full Fibonacci retracement level Psychological round number support at 100 USD Long Setup: Entry Zone: 100-115 USD Stop Loss: Below 92 USD Target 1: 130-135 USD Target 2: 150-160 USD Target 3: 180-200 USD Confirmation Signals Required for Long Entry: Bullish RSI divergence on daily timeframe Volume spike on bullish candle at support Price reclaiming the 20 period moving average Higher low formation on 4-hour timeframe Decrease in exchange inflows from whale wallets Risk Management Position sizing should not exceed 2-3 percent of portfolio for short setups Long setups at the 100-115 zone warrant 3-5 percent allocation due to higher conviction Scale into positions using 3 tranches rather than single entry Move stop loss to breakeven after first target achieved Avoid trading the 120-130 USD range without clear directional confirmation Monitor BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price action as correlation remains high Invalidation Levels Bearish thesis invalidated if: Daily close above 150 USD with increasing volume Price reclaims 50 and 200 moving averages RSI breaks above 60 with momentum Bullish thesis invalidated if: Daily close below 92 USD Volume spike on breakdown below 100 USD Bitcoin breaks below 75000 USD triggering broader market selloff Timeline Expectations Short-term (1-4 weeks): Expect continued weakness toward 100-115 USD support zone Medium-term (1-3 months): Potential basing pattern formation if support holds Long-term (3-6 months): Recovery rally possible if macro conditions improve and Solana-specific catalysts materialize Conclusion COINBASE:SOLUSD is in a clear distribution phase following the November 2024 peak. The technical structure, on-chain metrics, and macro environment all point to further downside before a sustainable bottom forms. The 100-115 USD zone represents the highest probability accumulation area based on: Historical significance as the November 2024 breakout origin Fibonacci full retracement level High volume node from previous accumulation Psychological support at 100 USD round number The recommended approach is patience. Avoid buying at current levels where distribution is occurring. Wait for price to reach the 100-115 USD zone and confirm with bullish divergence and volume signals before establishing long positions. For traders seeking short exposure, relief bounces to the 130-140 USD zone offer favorable risk-reward entries with defined stops above 148 USD. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
CRYPTO:SOLUSDShort
by officialjackofalltrades
2
BTC Gold - BKC Charting ExampleBare Knuckle Charting BKC is something I developed (And still developing) over the years. I will use this chart to give you a crash course in BKC. Here is the original post I made back in March to follow along. ) So, BKC, let's start with: 1. Always start with a plain chart. 2. 99.9% of the time, look for 3 waves plus a hook. 3. Count 4 points (2 top and 2 bottom) connecting with a line. Price can NEVER violate price. EVER! so it must be the highest or lowest points in that particular wave. 4. A structure will reveal itself pointing in a direction up, down sideways. -Sideways means continuation of the previous trend. -Up/Down structure means a reversal structure is coming. 5. Now you can clearly identify key areas of the structure. What I call "CRACK!" A break in momentum. 6. A CRACK can collapse or give you early warning signs. 7. Once a crack has revealed itself at key areas, don't be fooled by the subsequent price action. This is where most get F up. They don't see what you see. A CRACK & weak buying barely trying to hold the trendline that will ultimately CRACK again and more likely than not collapse with them holding a bag of schitt! Mesmerized with the overall trend and more specifically mesmerized by the most recent trend after the CRACK (they don't see) that moved in their favor. These people can't see past their noses. Completely unaware of what is actually happening. The best part is when they show you a chart, they just draw lines randomly violating price (CRACKS) and concluding that the chart is bullish or bearish, and telling you how it is. HAHAHAHA! SMH! 8. Because you can all see past your noses using BKC. This will help you in so many ways that you can't even imagine! Why? - You won't take random trades anywhere in the chart! You will wait for key areas to get involved. This alone will dramatically cut down on the # of needle trades you make, which at best are 50/50 happenstance results that you then give meaning to. Basically, gambling with the illusion of analysis. -Next, you completely remove the subjectivity and cute stories that produce the illusion of "analysis." THIS IS IMPORTANT! With BKC you extract information FROM the data. Not applying your vague hunches and feelings TO THE DATA! That's the difference between Real & Illusion of analysis. - Continuing on. With BKC, you have a much more holistic understanding of price and what investors' emotions are. It's all right there in the chart. People talking with their money. Not their mouth! - Once you see charts properly and understand what they are actually telling you, Waves - hooks - Structures - key Areas - Strengths -Weaknesses - CRACKS etc... you can't UNSEE IT! It's impossible! - Your actual trade or investment positioning and size drastically improve. You understand that a single CRACK may just be a warning, as such, you don't run out and bet the farm and have it blow up in your face! That alone will greatly improve win win-loss ratio and help prevent blown-out accounts or massive losses. You can't be a trader investor if you are losing your ars beyond the typical cost of doing business draw downs. That is just so basic! - Most importantly, you will finally STOP! this maddening going for 2, 3, 4% "targets"! Then on to the next big guess and keep repeating until you blow yourself out! I know I used to do it! Now with BKC you will go for mammoth moves 30, 50, 75, 100% plus moves! Bc you see the holistic view. Not the hiccups of random simple price movement, thinking you did something. - With BKC, Small losses are viewed as informational. Schitt didn't do what it was supposed to do. It went back into structure strongly, so I am out! Simple. Who cares? If I repeat this 10 times in the end, I will be profitable. Even if 9 weren't! WHAT? Yes! Because when you go for the big moves, that is actually possible as crazy as it sounds. But you will never experience that unless you actually learn how to do it. That's what BKC is for. You will never learn how to do it if you keep going for silly 2-3% piker moves! 100% GUARANTEED! You must stop wasting your time & fooling yourself with randomness and then trying to apply meaning to it. This is not by any means an inferential! You all share your stuff and approaches, scripts, bots, and mostly the same old tired candlesticks, moving averages, FIBS, and targets etc.. which is why you can all speak the same language and understand each other, but fail to produce real, meaningful results. BKC is a completely different approach as far as I know. It does not give you a fish, it teaches you HOW to fish! For BIG ONES! I will keep posting examples here as I have been, but now you should have a bit more clarity as to how and why I post what I post. Follow along and see the difference in real time. No hindsight crystal ball nonsensical bullschitt. As for this chart with a H&S at a top Look for a pop then a drop! Should this H&S break, it will be ugly for the Crypto Bros.! The proof is in the pudding! ;) THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCShort
by RealMacro
6
RNDR – Weekly Structure Price is currently trading at a major HTF support zone around $1.20–$1.30. This level previously acted as strong support and resistance, making it a key decision area. The recent downside wick has been partially filled (~50%), which often signals temporary demand, but structure is still bearish on the higher timeframe. Key levels to watch: Support: $1.20 – $1.30 Next downside risk: If this level fails → possible continuation lower Bias: As long as price holds above support → potential range / relief bounce Weekly close below support → bearish continuation scenario Patience is key here. Let price confirm direction before entering. Not financial advice. Always manage risk. MrC
by Mrctradinglab
BCH: $700–$800 Before the Next Bear MarketBCH Macro Resistance Before Bear Market Based on historical price structure, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) appears to be approaching a macro resistance zone around $700–$800 , which has previously marked the final upside before major bear markets. In 2018 and 2022, BCH followed a very similar pattern: A prolonged accumulation phase A strong push into a horizontal resistance zone A rejection from that zone, followed by a deep bear market decline The current structure closely mirrors those past cycles. Price is once again testing the same historical supply zone, where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. Key idea: I expect BCH to reach the $700–$800 range This level could act as the last distribution zone before the broader market transitions into a new bear market phase This is not a short-term trade idea, but a macro perspective based on repeating market behavior and long-term resistance reactions. ⚠️ As always, confirmation is needed, and this scenario is invalidated i f price accepts and holds above the resistance zone.
Short
by ODYSSEY21
Market Panic: Gold or Crypto?When the market enters a state of panic, the question is no longer “How much profit can I make?” but rather “Which asset helps me survive and protect my capital?” In moments like these, gold and crypto are often placed side by side. Both are seen as safe havens—but in very different ways, and that difference is the key to making the right decision. 1) Gold – Where Capital Flows When Confidence Breaks Gold has existed for thousands of years with one core purpose: preserving value. When inflation rises, geopolitical tensions escalate, or the financial system shows signs of stress, large capital tends to move into gold first. Why gold performs well during crises: High global liquidity, accepted across all markets Relatively “orderly” volatility, suitable for defensive positioning Often benefits when real interest rates fall and the USD weakens In other words, gold won’t make you rich overnight, but it helps you avoid being washed away when the storm hits. 2) Crypto – An Asset Driven by Expectations and Emotion Crypto represents a new generation of assets, where value is heavily influenced by future expectations, technology narratives, and speculative capital. In normal or euphoric market conditions, crypto can rise very quickly. But when panic sets in, the story changes. Here’s the reality we need to face: Crypto reacts extremely sensitively to “risk-off” sentiment High leverage + thin liquidity during stress periods can trigger chain liquidations In major shocks, crypto is often sold alongside growth stocks, rather than acting as a true safe haven Therefore, crypto is not a defensive asset in the traditional sense—it is an asset of belief and market cycles. 3) When Should You Choose Gold? When Should You Hold Crypto? The answer is not “which is better,” but what the market context is. True panic (systemic risk, war, financial crisis): ➡ Gold is usually the preferred choice. Capital seeks certainty, not stories. Short-term crisis followed by monetary easing: ➡ Gold often leads the first wave, ➡ Crypto tends to recover more aggressively after a psychological bottom forms. Stable markets with abundant liquidity: ➡ Crypto performs at its best. 4) My Perspective: Don’t Choose with Emotion From my experience, the biggest mistake traders make during panic is choosing assets based on personal belief instead of capital flow and market behavior. A professional trader asks: Where is large capital taking refuge? Is current volatility suitable for my trading style? Is my goal capital preservation or outsized returns? If your priority is safety and stability, gold is usually the more reasonable choice. If you accept high risk in pursuit of high reward, crypto should only be approached after clear confirmation, not during extreme panic.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Paradise_Noir
11