XAU/USD – Holds Its Range, Preparing for a Year-End Expansion🔍 Market Context
Friday’s New York session closed with a two-sided liquidity sweep, yet gold managed to hold its structural balance, maintaining the same rhythm seen over the past two weeks — sideways to mildly bearish, but firmly supported.
This behavior shows that buyers are still defending key zones, especially around 3,940$ – 3,980$, which MMFLOW highlighted multiple times last week as the decisive liquidity floor.
From a macro lens, the Fed’s cautious tone has slowed expectations for aggressive rate cuts — but the probability of another reduction before Q1 2026 remains alive.
As we move toward the final stretch of the year, thinner liquidity and seasonal safe-haven flows could help gold establish a mid-term bottom, setting the stage for the next impulsive leg.
📊 Technical Structure (H4)
The current chart presents a clear 5-wave recovery structure within a tightening range — a classic setup before expansion.
Key Technical Zones:
• 💎 Support Zone: 3,942$ – 3,982$ (liquidity base + strong absorption area)
• 🎯 Wave 3 Target: 4,072$ – 4,133$ (first reaction zone)
• ⚙️ Extended Target / Wave 5: 4,189$ – 4,201$ (Fibo 1.618 projection)
• ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → loss of short-term structure, possible re-accumulation lower.
The structure remains sideways but constructive, and a confirmed breakout of the descending trendline could act as the catalyst for a year-end bullish continuation.
🎯 MMFLOW TRADING View
Smart money continues to accumulate within equilibrium zones, with every liquidity sweep appearing more like preparation than rejection.
As long as gold stays above 3,970$, the bullish bias remains valid — with a 60%+ probability of a move toward 4,130$+ in the short to mid-term.
Historically, November–December often brings portfolio rebalancing and policy easing cycles, both of which may serve as fuel for a potential gold rally into Q1 2026.
⚜️ MMFLOW Insight:
“Accumulation isn’t waiting — it’s when big money quietly builds the next wave.”
