USD/CHF Consolidation Within Downtrend ChannelUSD/CHF continues to trade within a descending channel, highlighting persistent downside pressure since breaking below the 0.8400 level earlier this year. Both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages slope lower, reinforcing the broader bearish structure.
The MACD remains in negative territory with its signal line above the MACD line, suggesting momentum still leans to the downside. Similarly, RSI hovers near 43, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that buyers have yet to regain control but without showing oversold conditions.
Price action has recently tested the upper boundary of the channel but was unable to break above it, keeping the pair confined within its established range. Unless there is a decisive breakout from this structure, the technical picture favors ongoing consolidation within the bearish channel.
-MW
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Dominance at Channel Resistance – Reversal Ahead?Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has reached the top of its ascending channel around 58.5%, which is acting as a strong resistance.
🔹 Main Scenario (More Likely):
A rejection from this resistance zone could trigger a pullback toward 57.8% – 58%, giving some relief to altcoins in the short term.
🔹 Alternative Scenario:
If BTC.D manages to break and hold above 58.5%, the next upside target would be around 59%.
⚖️ Conclusion:
• Current levels are risky for further upside.
• Probability of a correction is higher.
• This setup may favor altcoin outperformance if dominance drops.
Gold hits record 3,759 | Safe-haven flows surge back🟡 XAU/USD – 23/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Today Gold surged nearly +2% , hitting a record $3,759/oz .
Geopolitical tensions : Israel launched missiles into Lebanon, killing 5 (including 4 US citizens) → safe-haven demand rushed back into Gold.
USD weakened , capital flowed out of stocks & bonds → strong support for precious metals.
ETFs & speculators : heavy buying amplified the rally.
Silver : jumped to its highest level in 14 years, reinforcing strength in the precious metals sector.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is fueled by geopolitics, macro factors, and safe-haven demand. But after a hot rally, the big question: continue breaking highs or face sharp swings if the FED shifts tone?
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H45)
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,771 – 3,787 (Fibo 0.5–0.618 confluence, ATH test zone)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Near support: 3,740 (previous high turned support)
OB Dock: 3,717 – 3,723
Breakout Harbor: 3,689 – 3,691
Market Structure
Gold broke out to Higher High around 3,755 – 3,759.
Main trend remains bullish, but prone to volatility / pullback after a hot rally.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy Zone 1 (OB)
Entry: 3,717 – 3,723
SL: 3,707
TP: 3,725 – 3,730 – 3,735 – 3,740 – 3,750
Buy Zone 2 (Breakout Retest)
Entry: 3,689 – 3,691
SL: 3,678
TP: 3,699 – 3,710 – 3,7xx
⚡ Sell (short-term scalp if overbought)
Sell Zone (ATH test)
Entry: 3,783 – 3,785
SL: 3,795
TP: 3,759 – 3,740 – 3,717
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The geopolitical storm pushed the Golden sails past 3,759. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,717 – 3,689) is the safe dock for sailors to board the northbound trend. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,771 – 3,787) may raise heavy waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. The main voyage remains bullish, but after a hot rally, sailors must keep a firm hand on the helm to avoid being thrown off by choppy swings.”
Bullish Harmonic (Potential Bullish Bat/Alt Bat)Pattern: Bullish Harmonic (Potential Bullish Bat/Alt Bat)
Currently moving from C → D leg.
Breakout above point B (~₹185) confirmed with good volumes.
D zone projection near ₹240–260.
✅ Buy Zone: ₹185–195
🎯 Target 1: ₹220
🎯 Target 2: ₹250
🛑 Stop Loss: ₹170 (below recent swing low)
GBPUSD – Is the Downtrend Returning?The latest UK PMI data continues to paint a bleak picture: manufacturing remains below the 50 threshold, while services are forecast to decline compared to the previous period. This weakens confidence in the GBP, adding further downward pressure on GBPUSD.
On the chart, GBPUSD has broken a key dynamic support structure and is now retesting the broken trendline around 1.3550. This newly formed resistance zone is likely to cap price action. If it fails to break above this level, the bearish scenario is expected to continue.
The next target for sellers lies at 1.3340, which aligns with a previous strong support area and serves as a key equilibrium level on the higher timeframe.
Conclusion: With weak fundamentals and a bearish technical structure, the priority scenario is for GBPUSD to remain under pressure and continue lower.
Wishing you successful trades!
EURUSD – Uptrend Remains Intact?Hello everyone, let’s take a look at the chart. EURUSD is maintaining its bullish structure, with the trendline being respected multiple times. Each touch of support has led to a strong rebound, showing that buying pressure remains dominant.
Currently, the 1.1730 zone acts as a key support. If this level holds, EURUSD is likely to continue consolidating before breaking higher. The next target lies at 1.1920, a strong resistance both technically and psychologically.
Conclusion: EURUSD remains in a clear uptrend. As long as the trendline and the 1.1730 support are not broken, the preferred scenario is for price to move higher, with a short-term target at 1.1920.
XAUUSD: A New Launchpad from the 3,700 ZoneHello traders, the gold market is entering an intense phase as U.S. economic data signals a slowdown. The Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.8 vs. 53.0 prior) and Flash Services PMI (53.8 vs. 54.5 prior) both declined, weakening the USD and providing momentum for gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset.
On the chart, XAUUSD continues to move within a steady ascending channel, with the 3,700 zone acting as a key support level. If this level holds, gold could push higher toward the 3,750 target, which stands as both a technical resistance and a strong psychological barrier.
However, the spotlight remains on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks. A dovish tone could fuel a breakout for gold, while a hawkish stance may trigger a short-term pullback before resuming the broader uptrend.
Bottom line: Gold has the advantage, and the big question is – does XAUUSD have enough momentum to conquer 3,750 and ignite a powerful new rally?
Equinox Gold 4H Chart Outlook Bullish ImpulseHere is my current take on AMEX:EQX Equinox Gold Corp. The 4H chart shows an unfolding bullish impulse. I hold this stock and have added to this position numerous times as shown on the chart. As the outlook suggest we could see a pull back in green wave iv at some point, which could provide another potential point to add to the allocation once it has played out. It's correlation to gold hasn't been very strong recently, but that can always change, I'm of the opinion that gold is overdue a pull back, I have linked one potential outlook on OANDA:XAUUSD , I have some other variations which I will work to post out soon. so keeping a close eye on Gold at these levels. More comments on the chart.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Post-Fed digestion: Equities and bonds still recalibrating after last week’s SEP + Powell tone.
💻 Mega-cap watch: Tech + AI flows continue to drive AMEX:XLK sentiment.
🌐 Central bank chatter: A busy Fed speaker slate gives extra volatility into month-end.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 9:00 AM — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech
⏰ 🚩 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) — Services & Manufacturing
⏰ 10:00 AM — Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
⏰ 🚩 12:35 PM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #Fed #PMI #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup🍫 Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup
Direction: Long Bias
Contract: Cocoa (NY / ICE)
Current Price: ~7,437
🔍 Technical Setup
Price has been consolidating after the sharp run-up and has now pulled back into a key long-term trendline (yellow support).
A downtrend channel breakout is forming – if price clears this, it opens the door to a relief rally.
I’m looking for price to push back toward the 8,500–9,000 zone as a first target (previous structure resistance).
EMA cross (9 vs 19) is flattening, signaling potential shift in momentum.
📊 COT & Sentiment
Speculators remain net long in cocoa, reflecting continued bullish sentiment.
Commercials (hedgers) are still short, but that’s typical for producers – nothing extreme.
Fundamentals remain tight:
Black pod disease in Cameroon hitting yields.
Stockpiles in London/NY at multi-year lows.
Consumer demand holding up despite high prices.
This alignment supports a bullish recovery if technicals confirm.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Current levels around 7,400–7,500, scaling in on confirmation.
Target 1: 8,500 (previous resistance zone).
Target 2: 9,000+ if momentum extends.
Stop Loss: Below 7,000 to protect against breakdown.
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 setup.
⚠️ Risks
Stronger-than-expected supply recovery in Ivory Coast/Ghana.
Weak grind demand data (sign of demand destruction).
Speculators cutting long positions aggressively.
✅ Conclusion
Cocoa has pulled back into long-term support, with positioning and fundamentals still supportive of higher prices. If the descending trendline breaks, I’m positioning for a long swing toward 8,500–9,000.
This cocoa strategy has a profitability rate of 66% and average 9.4% gain on a long position.
Daily Chart Outlook on MP Materials Corp.In this Daily chart outlook of NYSE:MP I'm looking for a continuation higher after breaking out of green wave iv. As the chart suggests I'm not ruling out a consolidation in red wave 2 assuming green wave v plays out. I don't hold a position but may take an initial position on any small pullback in the orange degree, but I would have one eye on increasing that position should the red wave 2 consolidation occur.
USDT Dominance Hits Major Resistance – What’s Next for Crypto?📊 On the 4H timeframe, USDT dominance (USDT.D) is approaching the 4.60% – 4.70% resistance zone, a level that has repeatedly triggered strong rejections in the past.
🔹 Primary Scenario
A rejection from this resistance is the more likely outcome. If confirmed, it could signal a bullish move for Bitcoin and altcoins as capital flows back into risk assets.
🔹 Alternative Scenario
If USDT.D manages to break and hold above 4.70%, this would indicate risk-off behavior in the market, potentially leading to increased selling pressure on crypto assets.
⚖️ Summary:
• 🔻 Rejection at resistance → Positive signal for crypto rally
• 🔺 Break & hold above 4.70% → Warning of further downside in crypto
SOLANA (SOL) – Major Breakout Setup BrewingSolana is showing one of the cleanest technical setups in the DeFi space right now. The daily chart reveals a textbook saucer formation, a pattern that often precedes strong upside moves.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• Support: $215–$220 – This zone must hold to keep the bullish structure intact.
• Breakout Zone: $250–$260 – A close above this range confirms the saucer breakout.
• Target: $480–$500 – Based on the pattern’s depth and duration.
The path of least resistance is up, and with altcoin sentiment turning bullish again, this could be a precursor to alt season.
📈 Monitoring closely for a confirmed breakout.
#Solana #SOL #Altcoins #CryptoTrading #DeFi #ChartPatterns #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoSetup #Altseason
EURNZD: More Growth Ahead! 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD broke a significant daily resistance cluster on Friday, providing
a confirmed bullish BoS.
We see a retest of a broken structure today, with a consequent consolidation on that.
A bullish violation of its intraday resistance leaves another bullish clue.
I think the pair will rise more and reach 2.015 soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD GOLD RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT READ CAPTIONHi trader's what do you think about gold
Gold market is currently trading above the support level 3702 and holding the demand zone around 3682. This area has acted as a base for buyers to push the market upward.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at 3727, and a stronger resistance zone is placed near 3736. If price struggles here, rejection is possible. However, if momentum stays strong, these levels will decide the next move.
📌 Summary:
Support Levels: 3702, 3682 (demand)
Resistance Levels: 3727, 3736
👉 For more safe analysis & updates, Follow my profile
Gap-Fill Watch: Euro FX Futures React to Weekly RejectionIntroduction
When analyzing futures markets, one of the most compelling signals arises when higher timeframe candlestick rejection aligns with lower timeframe price imbalances. That is exactly what we see in Euro FX Futures (6E, M6E). On the weekly chart, long upper shadows (LUS) have historically marked turning points, reflecting exhaustion of bullish pressure. On the daily chart, an open gap below current price offers a potential magnetic pull. Together, these elements provide a textbook technical case study of how price can align across timeframes.
This article explores the educational insights behind candlestick rejection and gap mechanics, then applies them to a concrete trading scenario in 6E and its micro equivalent, M6E.
Weekly Chart: The Long Upper Shadow (LUS)
Long Upper Shadows appear when a market tests higher levels but fails to sustain them, leaving sellers in control by the close. They are one of the clearest visual expressions of rejection.
In Euro FX Futures, past long upper shadows have preceded significant bearish moves. Each instance reflects an imbalance where buyers were unable to absorb selling pressure at higher prices. The most recent weekly candlestick shows another long upper shadow forming near resistance. For technically minded traders, this is an early warning sign of potential downside ahead.
Daily Chart: The Open Gap Below Price
Price gaps occur when markets open significantly away from the prior session’s close. In futures, gaps often act like magnets—price tends to revisit them over time as liquidity seeks balance.
Currently, Euro FX Futures show an unfilled gap just below the market. Historically, such gaps in 6E have attracted price action, especially when combined with bearish rejection signals from higher timeframes. The combination of a weekly LUS above and a daily gap below paints a picture of imbalance: rejection at the highs, unfinished business at the lows.
Trade Setup
A structured trade idea emerges from this technical alignment:
Entry condition: Short position if 6E breaks below the prior day’s low at 1.17865. This ensures price is moving in line with bearish continuation before entry.
Target: 1.17475, the origin of the open gap. This is where the “magnet effect” is expected to complete.
Stop-loss: 1.18090, derived from a 2-day ATR calculation and adjusted to 25%. This keeps risk tight but accounts for minor noise.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: With entry near 1.17865, risk is around 22 ticks while potential reward is about 39 ticks, yielding a favorable R:R of almost 2:1.
Risk caveat: Right below the gap origin lies a UFO support area. This means price may stall or reverse after the gap is filled. Being conservative with the target is wise—seeking deeper downside could run into structural support.
Contract Specs and Margin Notes
Understanding the contract structure is vital when applying risk management.
o Euro FX Futures (6E):
Contract size = €125,000
Tick size = 0.00005 USD per euro = $6.25 per tick
Initial margin (approximate, varies daily): ~$2,500–$3,000
o Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E):
Contract size = €12,500 (1/10th of 6E)
Tick size = 0.0001 USD per euro = $1.25 per tick
Initial margin (approximate, varies daily): ~$300–$400
Application: Traders with smaller accounts can use M6E to size positions more precisely, while larger participants may choose 6E for liquidity. Micros provide flexibility to scale in/out of trades while maintaining strict risk per trade.
Risk Management Essentials
Risk management is not about avoiding losses—it is about ensuring that any loss remains controlled relative to potential reward. This trade idea highlights three core principles:
Stop placement by ATR: Volatility-based stops adjust naturally to current market conditions. Using 25% of a 2-day ATR prevents overexposure while respecting noise.
Position sizing: Traders should calculate how many contracts (6E or M6E) align with their personal risk tolerance.
Target discipline: While tempting to aim lower than the gap origin, technical evidence suggests price may encounter support there. Conservative targeting avoids overstaying a move.
Educational Takeaway
This setup demonstrates the power of multi-timeframe confluence. A weekly rejection signal provides context, while a daily gap gives tactical direction. Traders often gain an edge when higher timeframe sentiment (bearish rejection) aligns with lower timeframe imbalances (gap fill).
For students of price action, this is a reminder that candlestick patterns should never be taken in isolation. Instead, they should be validated by market structure, liquidity imbalances, or other confirming signals.
Conclusion
Euro FX Futures present a case study in how weekly rejection and daily gaps can combine to create a structured opportunity. While no outcome is certain, the confluence of signals here underscores the educational value of analyzing shadows and gaps together.
Traders can study this setup not only as a potential trade but also as a lesson in disciplined multi-timeframe analysis.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
GBPJPY: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY formed a bearish imbalance candle on Friday,
breaking a solid rising trend line and forming a confirmed
Change of Character CHoCH.
The broken trend line and horizontal structure compose
a significant supply area now.
With a high probability, the price will drop lower from that.
Goal - 199.0
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.






















